Monday 7/15/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2024, 09:20 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 15, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card with the 0.50 Pick 5 starting in Race 5, and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:40 PM EST)

2-Ultimaroca (3-1)-Stormed home with a 54.4 back half to roll by 5 foes and take a picture. Jordan Stratton is back in between the pipes and will respect chances of doubling up.
3-Cadiallac Bayama (10-1)-Beat this kind on 6-10 and then took a big step up and has cashed only 1 small check in 3 races. Drops and has missed a start which may not hurt chances. This is the level of the last win and could wake-up at a solid price.
6-Pound For Pound (8-1)-The 5-year-old has won 7 of 25 here but is 0-3 since being claimed by the Laterza barn after beating up on $75k claimers. Brent Holland has gate speed to use, could get the top or land in the pocket behind Ultimaroca, and if so should be right there at a price.

Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)

6-Shine A Light (2-1)-Was idle for a month, since coming off the bench has a 2nd place finish and has taken a picture. Went gate to wire and beat this kind on 7-8. Should be a better price than 1/5 leaving from the 6 hole, and the same result appears likely.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

3-Big Gulp (5-1)-Battled Invitational company and has hit the board in 3 of 4 races. Now drops to the level of its last win and will use and hope the 5-1 ML price holds up.
4-Backstreet Shadow (5/2)-Similar to the one above as drops back to the level of its last win 2 back. Willing to respect chances and could cash the top check if Holland can provide a sharp steer.
6-Covered Bridge (4-1)-Stayed inside versus Invitational company. Drops, so Stratton could time the gate, send the veteran, and land on the point. Could go gate to wire with a fast start.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Laz (6-1)-This 4-year-old may not be on many tickets. But will look for some value and has done good work on the Hilltop hitting the board in 13 of 24 with 5 pictures. Comes back in sequence, had the 8-hole in last and makes its 3rd start for the Daguet barn. Stratton should have the 4-year-old in reach of the leader rounding the last turn.
3-Take A Closer Look (2-1)-Had been facing $40k claimers in the last 2 since being claimed by the Travis Alexander barn. Top call driver Matt Kakaley grabs the lines and he has had success steering the 4-yr-old who likes Yonkers winning 7 of 16 races.

1.00 Pick 4

2,3,6/6/3,4,6/2,3
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2024, 09:21 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#1 Colorful Lad	Not a whole lot from him in the even-money Thistledown comeback in April, but he has some upside off that run and turned in something a little bit better in his career debut here last summer. Appeal for a barn that has done good work in these kinds of spots.
#2 Party at the Beach	This one could turn into a battle of wills between forward players, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him flash some competitive pace while trying this softer level for the first time.
#5 Imposter Syndrome	His baseline effort is competitive, but he has had a lot of chances and doesn't always finish his races with a ton of enthusiasm. Capable underlay?
Race Summary	Colorful Lad might be able to chase the pace from the fence, and the price might be a bit more appealing this time around despite the drop in class.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#2 Atrocious	He's got some solid finishing lines, and he might offer a fair price today in a fun race. I like the way he stretched out last time around and has a claim on this for a team that does good work with similar local route types.
#3 Star Topper	He's coming out of a pretty good race last time out, but I'm not too sure I'd want to be here at anything like the 9/5 ML offering. One of the ones in a competitive spot.
#1 Chasing Kitty	Wouldn't argue at all with anyone landing here just on the strength of that last spot -- winner was back to handle allowance company and land the American Derby in his two starts since.
Race Summary	Atrocious has been honest over the local footing, and he might wind up in a good spot to finish if a couple of the tracking types keep the rail runner honest.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#1 Patriot Drive	He's not the most likely winner in here, but he was competitive here last season in some better spots, and he can probably come forward off the one-paced run off the bench last out.
#8 Malthael	He scored at Belterra the last time he raced with anything similar to this, and he ran OK over the synthetic footing at Turfway when facing claimers. Chance to bounce back.
#6 Digital Footprint	He's probably more likely underneath than he is to land another right back, but I like how honest his form was here last summer despite facing some tougher groups -- there's no Runaway Harry in here.
Race Summary	Patriot Drive is capable of something better today and should offer a playable price, and I'll try to get him in the picture with one of the other listed pair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2024, 09:21 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#1 CHROME CANDY (2-1)	Poor start as fave, rushed up, finished well, wears blinkers for local bow.
#4 DAY JO (7-2)	Lightly-raced 6yo just missed for new barn, distant third in faster follow-up in the slop.
#5 PRIX DE WEST (5-2)	Blew clear lead at one mile when last seen in February for red-hot barn.
Race Summary	CHROME CANDY broke poorly as the favorite at Lone Star Park, was hard ridden to play catch-up and finished with interest in mid-track. He runs for the cheapest tag of his career, gets blinkers and gets the call for a win and place bet despite no published workouts since his last start. Also play 1-4, 1-5 and 4-1 exactas.

Louisiana Downs - Race #4

#4 CHARLIE’S GAL (4-1)	Big effort after long layoff, steps up in class, changes riders again.
#6 MY BUTTERFLY (10-1)	Can use her speed well in seasonal debut in first long-distance test.
#1 CHAPELLETE (5-2)	Finished in the money in pair of short fields, Dominguez sticks.
Race Summary	CHARLIE’S GAL took money and rallied to lead at the stretch call from post 10 before the pace-setting favorite fought back to win. Can she duplicate that effort in her second start after 2 years away is the question. Bet to win and place.

Louisiana Downs - Race #5

#7 MO’Z STAR CROSS (5-1)	June vet scratch worked bullet from gate July 7, presumably with blinks on.
#6 CONNOR TALKSTRASH (6-1)	Chased 2-to-5 favorite, held second at 5F in five-horse field.
#2 WINDTAPPER WIN (5-2)	Drops, shortens up for seasonal debut with 11/0-0-2 record.
Race Summary	MO’Z STAR CROSS showed a pulse in his debut at the Fair Grounds last year, fired a :36-4/5 bullet workout for his return and should have a good pace to rally into at a decent price. Bet to win and place and play a 6,7/2,6,7/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2024, 09:22 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 5	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $12,600 • Post: 2:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 15. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 15 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. UHAVETOBEKITTENME is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOURBON OVER ICE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. UHAVETOBEKIT TENME: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). MY TWO AUNT JOANS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GILLIGAN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	BOURBON OVER ICE	5/1	5/1
7	UHAVETOBEKITTENME	15/1	5/1
3	MY TWO AUNT JOANS	2/1	7/1
1	GILLIGAN	6/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	UHAVETOBEKITTENME	7	15/1	Front-runner	84	72	83.6	53.8	39.8
3	MY TWO AUNT JOANS	3	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	64	64.6	71.0	65.5
2	BOURBON OVER ICE	2	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	76	57.6	69.8	65.3
1	GILLIGAN	1	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	84	70	58.4	69.8	62.3
5	KOSCIUSZKO	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	75	56.4	65.2	55.2
4	NICHOLAS JAMES	4	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	76	55.6	68.2	61.7
6	MUNI MUNI SLEW	6	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	78	71	52.0	68.0	63.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2024, 09:22 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $25,840 • Post: 4:14P
IND - R5 - (RAIL AT 24 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 5 FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * DEE MINUS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest T rackMaster Power Rating. BLUE EYED SOUL (IRE): Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. PRISCILLA'S COVE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Hor se has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	DEE MINUS	6/1	9/2
8	BLUE EYED SOUL (IRE)	8/5	5/1
10	PRISCILLA'S COVE	3/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	PEGGY'S WAY	9	8/1	Front-runner	64	64	89.1	51.2	39.2
8	BLUE EYED SOUL (IRE)	8	8/5	Front-runner	79	67	79.9	69.8	64.8
6	SWEET DAYDREAM	6	10/1	Front-runner	53	49	59.6	51.9	37.9
5	CHICA LINDA	5	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	PRISCILLA'S COVE	10	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	74	70	52.1	66.4	60.4
2	TOURING WITH NETTA	2	10/1	Stalker	0	0	38.9	58.8	49.3
11	CHIQUITA REINA	11	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	64	66.2	62.2	49.7
4	RED WINE LADY	4	15/1	Trailer	0	0	26.5	52.1	40.6
1	DEE MINUS	1	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	82	81	6.6	52.1	48.6
7	NO HARD FEELINGS	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	91.0	40.8	25.3
3	COLOR OF VICTORY	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2024, 09:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 54

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 DAISYSADOOZY 2/1
# 5 LOLA LEE 4/1
# 1 DAWN OF THE DEVIL 3/1

DAISYSADOOZY is the top bet in this race. She has a good opportunity for this event as trainer, Gittens, has solid win rate with horses going this distance. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good handicapping angle. This entrant ranks at the top in this group. This one has been constatntly running well recently. LOLA LEE - This filly with Ali in the saddle makes her a contender. She looks respectable in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. DAWN OF THE DEVIL - Will likely be one of the early speedsters of the bunch going into the midpoint of the race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2024, 09:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 63

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 WEGOTJACKSBACK 9/2
# 4 HILTON HEAD 7/2
# 1 DREW D'ORO 8/5

WEGOTJACKSBACK looks to be a solid contender. Last time out, this gelding was up against a rougher bunch. May best this field here, showing competitive numbers of late. HILTON HEAD - Overall the speed figs of this pony look formidable in this competition. The average class fig of 59 makes this one tough to beat. DREW D'ORO - Always hard to beat Klopp and Burgos working together, winning 17 percent of their races. Ought to go to the front end and may never look back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2024, 09:22 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:50pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,700 Class Rating: 49

Rating:

#4 DANDY DAY (ML=6/1)

DANDY DAY - Aboard this racer on Jul 8th and Negron is back again in the irons this time. I think this filly is very fit right now. I like the fact that Silva brings her back to a race so quickly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 KETO FRIENDLY (ML=4/5), #3 RED DELICIOUS (ML=9/2), #2 WOMP (ML=5/1),

KETO FRIENDLY - Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance contests lately. Doubtful to see her doing it today either. RED DELICIOUS - Trying to beat this horse in today's event at the price of 9/2. WOMP - Finished second in her most recent performance with a substandard speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 DANDY DAY is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2024, 09:23 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #7 - Post: 6:34pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,800 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#2 KYNLIE'S EMPIRE (ML=7/2)
#4 WAR MUSIC (ML=3/1)

KYNLIE'S EMPIRE - As long as Tohill keeps this pony off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a big winner. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the 1st time should be considered. That's what we have here. WAR MUSIC - Bacon and Flores perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +192 ROI for a rider and conditioner. Three consecutive improved speed ratings (68-72-84) make this horse a solid contender. The 84 most recent race speed figure looks mighty good on paper.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BIG BAD DIVA (ML=9/5), #5 REBEL RISING (ML=4/1), #3 SLUSHY (ML=6/1),

BIG BAD DIVA - This mare made little impact last out. REBEL RISING - Mediocre rating in the last race at Prairie Meadows at 1 mile. Don't feel this entrant will improve too much in today's event. SLUSHY - Notched a run-of-the-mill speed rating last out in a $20,000 Claiming race on June 16th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 KYNLIE'S EMPIRE is going to be the play if we are getting 6/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None