10-16-11

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:39 PM

DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #108 Take Green Bay Packers -15 over St. Louis Rams (Sunday 1 p.m. Fox)
The Packers are the clear-cut favorite to repeat as Super Bowl Champions this year and we will not be afraid to lay this big number on Sunday against one of the worst teams in the league. Green Bay has played just two home games this season, and against a similar Denver team they won, 49-23. That is about how I expect this game to go as well since the Packers are just unstoppable on the offensive side of the football. The Rams are 0-4 on the season and they have lost by double digits in three of those four games. St. Louis is also banged up with injuries and that will not help with facing the champs. The Rams are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games when they are an underdog of more than 10 points. The Packers are 7-1 in their last 8 games at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay Packers 45, St. Louis Rams 17

5 Unit Play. #110 Take New York Giants -3 over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 p.m. CBS)
The Giants were in great shape to take command of the NFC East and solidify their standing in the NFC for the playoffs, but then they laid an egg last week at home against the Seattle Seahawks. I expect them to bounce back this week and make a statement against an up-and-coming Buffalo Bills team. Buffalo is getting it done on defense by creating turnovers, as they are just the just 28th-ranked unit in the NFL. That means that if the Giants do not turn over the football, they should win this game by double digits. Buffalo is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a victory. New York is 22-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 31 games played during the month of October. An angry Giants team makes a major statement on Sunday and we collect in the process as well.
New York Football Giants 31, Buffalo Bills 20

4 Unit Play. #117 Take Cleveland Browns +7 over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 p.m. CBS)
The Raiders have played well this season, but they are never a good play as a favorite and, thus, we will side with the points this Sunday in Oakland. Cleveland has won the last five matchups with Oakland, including a 14-point victory in their last meeting. Oakland is off a huge emotional victory last Sunday against the Houston Texans, as Owner Al Davis passed away on the day before the game. They rose to the occasion, but I do not believe that this team will be able to stay at that level. Oakland has improved the offense, but has seen their defense fall to No. 29 and, thus, the Browns should be able to move the football up and down the field. Cleveland is 1-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. This game goes down to the wire and getting this many points is too good to pass up. The Raiders fail yet again to handle prosperity.
Cleveland Browns 23, Oakland Raiders 21

2 Unit Play. #126 Take New York Jets -7 over Miami Dolphins (Monday 8:45 p.m. ESPN)
Both teams come into this matchup on a down note, as the Jets have lost three straight games and the Dolphins have yet to win a game this season. As bad is the Jets are playing, they still have talent and that will be enough to win this game by double digits as they face a lame duck coach in Tony Sparano. What is worse is that the Dolphins will be without QB Chad Henne and now must turn to QB Matt Moore to salvage the season. Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC East teams. New York is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing records. The Jets are a frustrated group and they will take it out in a big way Monday Night against the Dolphins.
New York Nets 31, Miami Dolphins 13

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:40 PM

Colin Cowherd

Cleveland
Dallas
NY Giants
Baltimore
Carolina

Value pick: San Francisco

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:41 PM

Greg Roberets OKC Radio Show
Cleve
Det
Phil
Dallas---to win
Car---to win
NO

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:41 PM

strike point sports
7* goy ravens

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:41 PM

POINTWISE PHONES:

3* Dallas, Baltimore, Miami, Giants, over in NE/DALL

2* Indy, over in Clev/Oak, over Atl/Carolina

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:43 PM

DCI INDEX

Sunday, October 16, 2011

ATLANTA 30, Carolina 16
CINCINNATI 27, Indianapolis 18
DETROIT 26, San Francisco 19
GREEN BAY 37, St. Louis 6
WASHINGTON 24, Philadelphia 19
Buffalo vs. N.Y. GIANTS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PITTSBURGH 32, Jacksonville 9
BALTIMORE 29, Houston 16
OAKLAND 30, Cleveland 14
NEW ENGLAND 38, Dallas 23
New Orleans 25, TAMPA BAY 23
CHICAGO 24, Minnesota 17

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:44 PM

Today's NFL Picks

Minnesota at Chicago

The Bears look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog. Chicago is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 16
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (10/12)

Game 201-202: St. Louis at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.363; Green Bay 143.741
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 23 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 14 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-14 1/2); Under

Game 203-204: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 122.672; Pittsburgh 133.399
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 13; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+13); Over

Game 205-206: Philadelphia at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 133.402; Washington 130.205
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 45
Vegas Line: Pick; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia; Under

Game 207-208: San Francisco at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 134.612; Detroit 141.248
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4; 46
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4); Over

Game 209-210: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.082; Atlanta 128.129
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3; 53
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+4); Over

Game 211-212: Indianapolis at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 124.907; Cincinnati 133.348
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

Game 213-214: Buffalo at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 133.805; NY Giants 131.575
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2; 54
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3 1/2); Over

Game 215-216: Houston at Baltimore (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.513; Baltimore 144.192
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 9 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-7 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Cleveland at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 128.056; Oakland 132.704
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Oakland by 6; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6); Over

Game 219-220: Dallas at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.730; New England 143.258
Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Under

Game 221-222: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.125; Tampa Bay 131.865
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-4); Over

Game 223-224: Minnesota at Chicago (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 127.744; Chicago 134.781
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under

MONDAY, OCTOBER 17
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (10/12)

Game 225-226: Miami at NY Jets (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.319; NY Jets 135.780
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 9 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-7); Over

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:45 PM

THE DAILY BOBBER

Three-game teaser (6 points): Ravens -1.5, Raiders +.5, Jets -1.5

Two-game teaser (6 points): Steelers -6.5, Jets -1.5

Analysis: Let’s start with our two-game teaser, the Steelers and Jets. I love this play as I get a Pittsburgh team that is starting to hit on all cylinders, and a pissed-off New York team that is out to prove they still belong in the conversation for one of the league’s top team. Pittsburgh looked great last weekend against Tennessee, and seem to have remembered how to play defense. They face a rookie quarterback in Blaine Gabbert this weekend, and should be good for at least a couple of turnovers. Jacksonville’s defense has struggled mightily this season, and Roethlisberger should have no problem moving the offense down the field. This has the makings of a blowout, and winning by a touchdown should be a non-issue. New York, on the other hand, has been beat up by some good teams this season, and the doubters are beginning to lurk. They are a very resilient squad, with a hard-nosed coach, and will rebound nicely this week when they face the winless Dolphins, and inexperienced quarterback Matt Moore. I like the Jets so much in this one, that I have put them in both of my teasers, as I did last week with the Saints. We also get the Ravens -1.5, playing against a banged-up Houston team that is now overvalued, in terms of public perception. Andre Johnson has already been ruled out for this game, and Mario Williams has been declared out for the season. It’s tough to rebound from losing your biggest offensive and defensive weapons the week before playing a top-five team. Throw in the fact Baltimore is coming off a bye week and playing at home, and it could be tough sledding for Houston in Week Six. Our final play is Oakland at home against the Browns. The Raiders have continued to control the ground game, and prove that they are not a fluke. The Browns come in with a struggling offense and lackluster run defense, where they rank 25th in the league. I’m not sure how I feel about Oakland at -6.5, but look for them to control the ball and win this game straight-up. Let’s continue the streak and make it 10-1 on the year!

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:45 PM

ROBERT FERRRINGO

3-Unit Play. Take #221 New Orleans (-4) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

2.5-Unit Play. Take #206 Washington (+1.5) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

2-Unit Play. Take #211 Indianapolis (+7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

2-Unit Play. Take #214 N.Y. Giants (-3) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #216 Baltimore (-7.5) over Houston (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #223 Minnesota (+3) over Chicago (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

1-Unit Play. Take #208 Detroit (-4) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #216 Baltimore (-0.5) over Houston (4 p.m.) AND Take #220 New England (Pk) over Dallas (4 p.m.)

This Week's Totals;

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 44.5 Cleveland at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 46.0 San Francisco at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 50.0 Buffalo at N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 50.5 Carolina at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

5-Unit Play. Take #225 Miami (+7) over N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17)
I was going to make this a Game of the Year play but the number has just dropped too much.

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 43.0 Miami at N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17)

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:45 PM

NFL Betting Picks
Kevin

1 STAR PICK - San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions - 49ERS +5 (-110)
[Note: I'm risking 1.10 units to win 1 unit]

The 49ers come into this game 4-1 and 4-0-1 ATS. They are coming off of a huge confident boosting 48-3 victory as just 2.5 point favorites, which follow victories in Philadelphia as 9.5 point dogs in Week 4 and Cincinnati in Week 3. The Lions are looking like an NFC playoff team off to an amazing 5-0 start, but are in a let down spot here on a short week. Coming off a big 24-13 Monday Night football win at home the Lions face a tough 49ers team. The Lions made a lot of mistakes on Monday, and won't have an easy time against this 49ers defense who averages just 15.6 points against per game. 5 points is too many for the Lions in this one, I'm on the 49ers.

1 STAR PICK - Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants - OVER 50.5 POINTS (-108)
[Note: I'm risking 1.08 units to win 1 unit]

These two teams are in the top half of the league in a lot of offensive categories, including points per game. The Bills sit 3rd in the league at 32.8 points per game while the Giants are 9th in the league with 25.4 points per game. Both teams are averaging ove 350 yards of offense per game on the season. With that said, both defenses have had their troubles. The Giants are allowing 24.6 points against per game, and the Bills are allowing 24 points against. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eli Manning have both looked solid thus far - with Manning sporting a 102.3 QB rating, and Fitzpatrick with a 96.4 QB rating. Take note that the OVER is 6-0 in the Bills last 6 games overall, and 4-1 in their last 5 as a road underdog. The OVER is also 5-1-1 in the Giants last 5 home games, and 7-1 in their last 8 as a small favorite of 0.5-3.0. The offenses keep rolling in a shootout in New York - take the OVER.

1 STAR PICK - Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants - GIANTS -3 (-120)
[Note: I'm risking 1.20 units to win 1 unit]

A lot of action is coming in on the Bills +3 after they beat the Eagles last week (I game where I had the BILLS +3), but I am going on the opposite here. These two teams match up fairly evenly, and this will no doubt be a good match up. The Bills haven't been tested on the road, beating a bad Chiefs team and then losing to the Bengals by a field goal. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home, as head coach Tom Coughlin is 7-3 ATS in his last 10 as a favorite after losing straight up as a favorite. I'm not a fan of this Giants team after they knocked me out of my fantasy pool last week, but I fully expect a big bounce back game from New York. That and home field advantage should have the Giants favored by a few more, and I will take the Giants only laying a field goal.

Note:
He has 3 more plays rated 5 Star.

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:46 PM

Bookie Beating

Ron Cleary:
5 unit - Philadelphia Eagles -1
5 unit - Chicago Bears -3
5 unit - New England Pats -6.5

Clayton Rodgers:
5 unit - Atlanta Falcons -200 (Moneyline)

David Harper:
5 unit - New Orleans Saints -4.5

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:47 PM

WUNDERDOG
NFL 26-20 Last 46 picks +$990
1 OF 9
Game: Carolina at Atlanta (Sunday 10/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Carolina +4 (-110)

What a difference a year makes. Last year the Falcons had the best record in the NFC, while Carolina finished with the worst record in the entire NFL with just two wins. That led to the Falcons laying 14 points when these clubs met in Atlanta last year. Things have certainly changed. Through five weeks, the Falcons have already lost as many games as they did all last season. The pair of teams they have beaten this year have a combined three wins, and they only beat them by a combined 6 points in the two games. Carolina may only be 1-4, but no team has beaten them by more than 7 points, including last year's Super Bowl Champions Green Bay. I predicted in my preseason podcast on ESPN that the Panthers would end the season with a winning ATS record. After five weeks, they haven't lost a game vs. the number. Cam Newton has revitalized an offense that produced just 258 yards per game last year but is now ranked No. 5 in the league at 428 yards per game. The Panthers are now 10-4 ATS on
the road vs. a team with a losing home record in their last 14 and this is a team that now believes. The Falcons are giving up 26 points per game and they are in disarray. I like the Panthers to at least keep this one close.

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:47 PM

Football Jesus FREE pick NFL : NY Giants

**timbob** · 10-15-2011, 10:47 PM

RICK NEEDHAM

Dolphins at Jets (-7½) October 17, 2011 8:30, ESPN
Here's "The Scoop" Folks: The teetering New York Jets may just catch a break in week six NFL action when they host the winless Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium for an AFC East rival clash on MNF. The Jets have lost three straight games after opening the season with two wins, dropping last week’s contest against their other AFC East rival New England, 30-21. The Jets offense continues to struggle moving the ball and controlling the clock with the running game, and the defense couldn’t hold Tom Brady down for long in the loss to the Patriots. But help might be on the way in the form of the Dolphins, who have struggled to an 0-4 start and now face the rest of the season without starting quarterback Chad Henne. The Dolphins, who lost Henne to a season-ending shoulder injury in their, 26-16, loss in San Diego two weeks ago, held an open tryout for anyone who could throw a football last week during their bye. For the short-term the Dolphins will turn to backup Matt Moore at quarterback, but in the back of the mind of every Miami fan is the hope/fear that the Fins will play out the rest of the regular season in a contest with Indianapolis for the rights to draft Stanford’s Andrew Luck. The oddsmakers that set the football betting lines originally opened the Monday Night Football game between these two rivals with the Jets as large 9-point favorites at home. Surprisingly though, the number has actually dropped to minus -7.5-points after most of the early money has come in on the wounded Dolphins. There are still a few online sportsbooks listing the Jets at minus -9, or even minus -8, but the number has dropped to -7.5 at all of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and a majority of the reputable books on the Internet. The over/under total has also seen its share of line movement since the opening number was released, starting at 41 late on Sunday night and rising up to 42 or 42.5 after the first few hours of wagering at the window. The total going up is somewhat surprising as well, especially since on paper this game will feature two offenses that struggle to score points.
The Jets have gone to back-to-back AFC Championship games the past two season thanks in part to an offense that runs the football, controls the clock and keeps quarterback Mark Sanchez from having to win the game on his own, but that formula has disappeared in 2011. The Jets are only averaging 76.2 yards a game on the ground thus far, which ranks 31st in the 32-team NFL, and could be a big reason why the Jets have failed to put up wins in recent weeks. Part of the problem has been injuries along the offensive line, but there’s really no reason why the duo of Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson are only averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Without a strong running game Sanchez has shown his weakness at throwing the ball downfield (56.4 comp. %, 6.6 ypatt., 8 TD-5 INT) and the Jets offense as a whole has stubbed its toe with an average of just 297.4 yards a game (28th). The good news for Sanchez and the Jets is that the Miami defense is a shell of its former self, ranked 28th in overall yardage (414.5 ypg) and 25th in points allowed at 26 per game. Sanchez will also drool over the fact that the Dolphins pass defense has been cut apart by previous quarterbacks, to the tune of allowing 307 yards a game (31st).

When Miami has the ball they will likely try and run it to take some of the pressure off of Moore, something that they’ve had limited success doing thus far in 2011 (115.2 ypg rushing – 15th). The bigger question is who will run the ball, since offseason pickup Reggie Bush has been a flop and rookie Daniel Thomas has missed two of the Dolphins four games due to injury. Running the ball is the best option against the Jets defense too, since they are allowing 134.8 yards a game (26th) including 152 yards against the Patriots last week (4.3 ypc). Moore was 17-of-26 for 167 yards in relief of Henne against the Chargers, but he threw an interception and has had issues in protecting the football in his previous attempts as a starter in the NFL. The good news for Miami is that they seem to have the Jets number, especially on the road, as they have a three game winning streak over the Jets at the old Meadowlands and new MetLife Stadium. Last year they beat the Jets 10-6 in New York, the year before in 2009 they won both games against the Jets including a 30-25 decision on the road. All told there are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five head-to-head games with a perfect 3-0 for both on the road.

The underdog has also enjoyed a 5-0 ATS mark in those same five games. The problem for the Dolphins is that they are just 1-5 ATS against the AFC East in their last six tries. The Jets haven’t been good to bettors either, going 5-13 in October over the past few seasons and a terrible 1-4 ATS mark in their last five games on Monday Night. With all of those betting trend numbers scaring you off the side bet, the best wager for this game could be THE OVER. The over is 8-2 in Miami’s last 10 road games, 22-7 in the Jets last 29 games overall, and 4-1 for both teams in their last five games in primetime on Monday Night Football. BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: In a normal world I would never back the Jets as more than a touchdown favorite, but this is not a “normal” week between these AFC East rivals. The Jets desperately NEED this game, at home, to get back in the AFC playoff chase. I’m taking THE JETS minus the 7.5-points here, as well as THE OVER (42.0).

RICK'S "HOT-SPOT" PLAYS
THE UNDER (46.0) TEXANS AT RAVENS
PACKERS (-14.0) OVER RAMS

10-16-11

10-16-11

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