Tuesday 7/16/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#2 Mr. Yasuda	He has already had a lot of chances, so I'd want another solid number, but he was competitive with similar a couple times here last year and owns a little potential finishing punch in a race that lacks it.
#4 Lucios Zoran	Pace has been a bit too eager early in those recent races, but he should be the controlling tempo again and wouldn't be a shock to run one of these groups off their feet someday.
#3 Blue Soldier	He is another who has had his share of chances already, but his one-paced grinding style might play well enough to keep him plugging on for another share. On deeper tickets?
Race Summary	Mr. Yasuda has some midrange price appeal in here while being one of the few who can get past horses on occasion. Why not?

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#6 R Penelope	Don't trust her a whole lot, but she has the kind of pace to control this one early, and that might make her dangerous while trying this kind of level for the first time.
#8 Last Glimmer	Cutback pace should be in a decent spot while potentially tracking the top choice early, and she's worth a look going short against this kind. Not sure the price is going to be all that attractive.
#1 Cupid Missed	She has been a good fit with claiming company in the last couple starts and seems competitive right back with this group. Decent trip while tucked in behind the choice?
Race Summary	R Penelope might have sharp enough pace to control this the entire way while trying cheaper for the first time, and I'd probably be interested in her as a co-choice on the board with Last Glimmer.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Into Disco	The local footing is the big question with her, but she's probably supposed to handle this group on overall form. She was within a few lengths of a Grade I-placed winner a few starts back, so I think her invading form stacks up pretty tough.
#7 Red Pixie	No arguments from me with anyone landing here given how reliable she is, and she wasn't overmatched when facing similar a couple starts back. Threat from off the pace.
#2 Genevieve's Z Va	Pace has been denied the lead in the last couple and does her best work on the front end -- a spot she should be able to find today. Wouldn't shock to see her stick around for a piece, and maybe she should be on a couple saver tickets as dangerous speed?
Race Summary	Into Disco and Red Pixie look like the right pair in here, but I think the former is going to be too tough with these and will lean on that one in this spot.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#7 ACTION DREAM (4-1)	Good recent form, ideal setup offsets poor record in dreadful field.
#1 BADBADBOBBY (5-1)	Held third in fast-paced route, makes third start of cycle from rail.
#3 FREE BIRD BORDO (9-2)	Hit board in 4 of 9 at Parx, barn good with sprint-to-route angle.
Race Summary	Someone has to win in a field that is – get this – a combined 11-for-265. ACTION DREAM is as good as any, rallying for second in his last two starts behind a 3-to-5 and 8-to-5 front-end winners. At 1-for-34, his new trainer saw something he liked. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-7 exacta box.

Parx - Race #3

#2 KESTENNA (6-1)	Dirt form (23/2-4-5, $36k) makes her worth a value play on the class rise.
#5 LIAM’S KISS (2-1)	Won despite drifting at sixteenth pole, has some good back numbers to run to.
#4 FAR HEART (8-5)	Looks good on paper but hasn’t raced since claim 14 months ago.
Race Summary	KESTENNA outran her odds in her last two long-distance tests on conventional dirt, finishing second and third, respectively. She broke slowly in a five-horse field and got up for third behind the two prohibitive favorites. Bet to win and place and play 2-4 and 2-5 exactas.

Parx - Race #4

#4 CORONA CAMPIONE (3-1)	In top form, can handle added ground, can return quick claim dividend.
#2 LIL LATE LUCK (20-1)	Steady check-getter fired blank in latest, can land share at big price on best.
#5 FAST MOTION (9-2)	Set fast pace, held second in long sprint for a higher claiming tag.
Race Summary	CORONA CAMPIONE angled wide for the stretch drive, got the jump on her late-running pursuers and won on the class drop. She is in top form and can repeat on the class hike off the claim. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 3	$2 Daily Double (Races 3-4) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box
Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $16,500 • Post: 7:50P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. (IF NECESSARY WILL BE RUN SAME DISTANCE MAIN TRACK.).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. TAJI MIKE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TAJI MIKE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and thi s is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. WILDCAT HAGRID: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the to p three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	TAJI MIKE	5/1	2/1
1	WILDCAT HAGRID	10/1	3/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	THE GROOM'S JUL	3	10/1	Front-runner	0	0	43.6	26.5	20.0
6	TAJI MIKE	6	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	92.9	44.6	42.1
1	WILDCAT HAGRID	1	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	59	56	55.0	37.9	33.4
5	CAROLINA PARTISAN	5	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: AMERICAN CONSULATE (8/5) [Jockey: Hernandez Jairo H - Trainer: Freeman Kenneth C], I JUST DON'T NO (5/2) [Jockey: Gonzalez Kevin - Trainer: Jones Phillip L], S S FLAT OUT FUN (12/1) [Jockey: Gilbert Kyle - Trainer: Richison Cry

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 1	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3), 20 Cent Guaranteed $10,000 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 4:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. CARPE BELLUM is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CARPE BELLUM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest averag e Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GLORIOUS TRIBUTE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	CARPE BELLUM	8/5	2/1
4	GLORIOUS TRIBUTE	2/1	3/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CARPE BELLUM	1	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	83	67	73.0	70.4	67.9
4	GLORIOUS TRIBUTE	4	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	45	68.6	67.4	62.4
5	COLLABORATIVE	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	78	62.0	57.7	52.2
2	FIFTH SEASON	2	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	76	67	57.8	52.9	44.9
3	SANTIAGO SALSA	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	66	55.0	62.4	54.4

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Presque Isle Downs - Race #4 - Post: 4:21pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#4 UP FOR THE CHANCE (ML=5/2)


UP FOR THE CHANCE - Jockey hops right back on after getting to know the horse by riding last time around the track. That's always a good thing. This speedy sort should benefit from today's shorter distance. Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Surely on edge for a good one today. A horse coming back this quickly after a strong effort is a good signal.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TRAVELLER (ML=2/1), #2 YANKEE HUMOR (ML=9/2), #5 DISASTER RECOVERY (ML=5/1),

TRAVELLER - 81/72/52, are the dropping Equibase speed figures for this steed. I checked out this horse's past performances and he doesn't do well as the favorite and is likely to be favored today. YANKEE HUMOR - Finished third in his most recent race with a disappointing speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch. DISASTER RECOVERY - Today's event is 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance affair in the last 60 days. Not the greatest of indicators. Going to have a hard go of it with all of the other speedballs in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - UP FOR THE CHANCE - My data says it usually takes a pony at least 2 races after a layoff to get back into proper shape. That's just what we have here, so I expect a lot for this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #4 UP FOR THE CHANCE on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 83

IND - R5 - FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. IF THIS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SARGENT HULKA 8/1
# 7 BLACK WHITE N GOLD 5/1
# 8 JAILHOUSE JUSTICE 9/2

My pick in this race is SARGENT HULKA and could score at a price in here. Is tough not to consider based on speed figures which have been decent - 68 avg - of late. Has a very strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me think about this gelding. BLACK WHITE N GOLD - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Morales ought to have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest. Morales's return on investment over the last month automatically makes this horse a solid contender. JAILHOUSE JUSTICE - Has raced admirably in turf route races. Will probably be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the midpoint of the outing.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Stakes - 7.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 96

R. J. SPEERS MEMORIAL S. - 3-YEAR-OLDS & UPWARD. WEIGHTS: 3-YEAR-OLDS, 119 LBS. OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $14,400 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, RESTRICTED OR STARTER IN 2024 ALLOWED 5 LBS. FEES: NOTHING TO NOMINATE - $450 TO ENTER - $450 TO START.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 BLAZING BO 6/1
# 3 BIG NICK 12/1
# 5 MAGIC TIGER 4/1

I think BLAZING BO is a solid choice. I like the rider on this gelding - competitive chance to win the race. Going in a dirt sprint race gives this gelding a quite good shot. Always seems to be close up on the wire. BIG NICK - Is worth a look and may be a bet - strong speed figures (102 average) at today's distance and surface recently. MAGIC TIGER - Is a very solid contender based on figures put up lately under today's conditions. Has raced quite well in dirt sprint races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:28pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 41

Rating:

#6 LORD ZEKE (ML=3/1)


LORD ZEKE - I think this gelding is coming into top form. Entered last at FanDuel Horse Racing in a race with a class number of 63. Dropping significantly in Equibase class figure this time around puts him in a solid position in this event. This gelding's last speed rating is good enough to triumph here, I'll wager on him back again this time around. Durham brings him right back. I propose you stick with this hot gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CARNACK ON TOUR (ML=7/2), #3 PLAY THE BLUES (ML=4/1), #4 MARK'S BUDDY JACIN (ML=9/2),

CARNACK ON TOUR - This gelding hasn't had any in the money results in sprint contests in the last couple months. PLAY THE BLUES - Don't think this less than sharp equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was disappointing when compared with today's class rating. MARK'S BUDDY JACIN - Just cannot bet on this pony. Didn't show me anything last time out or on May 7th. Recent lessening Equibase speed figs of 36/32/9 give a clue that this horse may be going off form.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 LORD ZEKE is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip