Wednesday 7/17/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[citybeat]

Jul 17	Nick Borrman	5%	[OTH] Golf + Soccer Cross Sport Parlay Time: 7:30 PM EDT	PARLAY Xander Schauffele Top-30 + New York Red Bulls ML (-116) *Updated
Analysis: The Open Championship Top-30 Finish DraftKings (plays is top 30) You can also play this on the Top-20 market which honestly is where he will end up assuming he does cash. X stated slowly last week at the Scottish Open shooting 1-under in Round 1 and was outside the Top-70 after Thursday. But he did what he does and grinded out a good second round, made the cut, played steady on the weekend and finished once again in the Top-20. His TENTH STRAIGHT TOP-20 finish (minus the partners Zurich event). Going back even further, he has finished inside the Top-20 in 27 of his last 33 starts going back to THE PLAYERS in 2023. He is also the TOUR's active cut streak leader at now over 50 straight starts making the cut, which is important because even with a slowish start, he should be there all four days which will give us a chance to cash. Finally, he ranks 2nd in Total Strokes Gained behind only Schefffler over the last 12 month, 6 months and 3 months. He is as steady as they come. MLS CF Montreal at New York Red Bulls Wednesday, 7/17 | 7:30pm ET Love NYRB at home where they remain unbeaten on the season, though they have four draws, they have six wins and own the best defense at home according to xG, allowing only 0.59 per home match. They are coming off a small road trip in which they earned two draws at Colorado and at Philadelphia, scoring just one goal on a total of 4.6 xG. They are creating chances and those will eventually go in. I like them returning home and they should have a big advantage on short rest vs the travelling Montreal side. I like that Montreal is coming off a home win, leaving open the chance to a letdown here on just 3 days rest. Their defense has been awful on the road, allowing 27 goals over just their last nine away matches while they have scored just five goals over their last eight, not a good omen against NYRB's stingy defense. I expect a straight forward NYRB win here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Scouting Report: July 17-21, 2024

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July 15, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Key Races

Wednesday | G1 Smithwick Memorial (steeplechase)

Thursday | New York Stallion Stakes (NY-bred turf mile)

Friday | Curlin Stakes (3yo dirt route)

Saturday | G1 Coaching Club American Oaks (3yo dirt fillies), G3 Lake George (3yo turf fillies)

Sunday | G2 Shuvee (elder dirt fillies/mares)

Horsepower

Wednesday | G3 WL McKnight winner Abaan (R1 G1 Smithwick steeplechase); G1 Gamely runner-up Olivia Maralda (R5 allowance)

Friday | unbeaten Unmatched Wisdom vs. Sir Barton winner Corporate Power (R3 Curlin)

Saturday: G1 Pegasus World Cup winner Atone vs. G2 Pilgrim winner Major Dude (R9 allowance); Wild Applause winner Oversubscribed (R10 Lake George); G1 Kentucky Oaks & Acorn winner Thorpedo Anna vs. G1 Ashland winner Leslie’s Rose (R11 Coaching Club American Oaks)

Sunday: G3 Doubledogdare winner Raging See (probable for G2 Shuvee, entries drawn Wed)

Extra Incentives

Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites won 35% opening week, going 15-for-43.

-- Four trainers won 3 races opening week, ranked by fewest starters to get there: Cherie DeVaux (6), Mark Casse (11), Bill Mott (13), Chad Brown (20). Other notable training feat: Al Stall Jr. was 3: 2-1-0.

-- Todd Pletcher trainees were just 1-for-6 as favorites on the week.

-- Flavien Prat topped all jockeys opening week in both wins (7) and win percentage (27).

-- 21 of 43 winners last week exited races on the NYRA circuit; 14 came via Churchill final starts, 3 first-time starters and single winners via Keeneland, Gulfstream, Oaklawn Delaware Park and Finger Lakes.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Thistledown - Race #3

#6 Nancyfromtheblock	She's a little short on excuses at this point, but there isn't much finishing punch signed on today, and her one-paced style might work well to plug away from midpack to land this.
#9 Thirty Something	Think one of this logical top pair will score here, and she's another who should be in a decent tracking spot with hopes of grinding it out late.
#8 Ralph's Lil' Vicky	Pace had to work hard early in the debut before folding up, and her stretchout pace should keep her right in the mix early. Obvious upside second time out.
Race Summary	Nancyfromtheblock owns a couple decent running lines with similar, and she proved she could go long last time out with that good effort to land second.

Thistledown - Race #6

#4 Skyhopper	Think the price will be solid enough to give this one a look, as he might find himself in a perfect spot tracking a couple of more committed pace players. He's not really known for getting past horses, but maybe he inherits the lead if the two early battlers come back?
#6 Ransam Paynter	Pace gets the best of the draw to hassle the other speed from outside, but I worry that they're both going to have to hustle a bit too much in that early battle and could come up empty.
#3 Flawless Cat	He has been in with some better groups, but he is another who needs the lead for his best stuff and figures to have company from the guy above.
Race Summary	Skyhopper is a bit of a reach, but I'm hoping an early battle will develop that leaves him in a spying spot by default while he chases. Some appeal.

Thistledown - Race #8

#4 Johnnny's Game	Speed tends to have a tiny bit of interest in battling when passed late, and he isn't meeting a whole lot of other early burn on paper. Could have things to himself.
#2 Verbier	He has carried his races with him at multiple tracks, so I'm assuming he'll run here, too. Honest finisher is the clear one to beat.
#3 Gotta Go Gator	His form has been hit or miss, but some of the better lines stack up OK with these, and he has some obvious room to bounce back after the flat fading run last out.
Race Summary	Johnnny's Game might find an easy enough lead to give him a fighting chance to stay on late at a midrange price. Hoping the presence of Verbier keeps the price playable.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#1 MY JO JO (8-1)	Can factor with alert start and livelier pace at distance which she has conquered.
#4 LOVELY LIZA (5-2)	Second in 8 of last 18 starts, mostly sprinting for a higher price.
#5 WATER WITCH (9-5)	Found proper level in local debut, just missed while well clear of ‘Jo Jo.’
Race Summary	MY JO JO last won here at today’s distance, gets more pace flow than in her last start and could upset with an alert break from the rail. She gets class relief for her third start of a cycle but picks up 5 pounds with another rider change. Bet to win and place and play a 1-4/1,4,5/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#5 DANCING BEAUTY (3-1)	Can maximize her speed in repeat attempt with Maldonado aboard.
#4 MS GLORIA JEAN (8-1)	Didn’t duplicate eye-catching stretch rally in win two back but value remains.
#2 SUN STREAMING (2-1)	Gets needed class relief, should rally into winning contention.
Race Summary	DANCING BEAUTY went wire-to-wire in her first start after the vet voided a claim on her. She lands in a dream spot to use her speed and repeat in her second try after 3-1/2 months away. Bet to win and place and play 5-2 and 5-4 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #6

#4 INFAMOUS NONO (3-1)	Looks to rebound for a barn in the midst of a 14-for-29 run.
#5 BAR DOWN EXPRESS (8-1)	Earned top speed fig in class-rising win off the claim, won’t be 8-1.
#1 THIS RUN’S FOR YOU (2	Hit board in heavily-bet 3 of 4 starts at GP this year for higher tags
Race Summary	INFAMOUS NONO didn’t duplicate his comeback run that produced a 3-1/4-length victory at 7F, but the Gulfstream Park invader remains dangerous, nonetheless, for a red-hot barn in her Delaware Park debut. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 5	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $19,000 • Post: 7:41P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 17 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $9,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * UP AGAINST IT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PUTTHEGLASSDOWN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GRAB THE GOLD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. STARLITE WALKER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface.
3	UP AGAINST IT	9/2	9/2
5	PUTTHEGLASSDOWN	6/1	7/1
7	GRAB THE GOLD	6/1	7/1
6	STARLITE WALKER	5/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	KAZ PALACE	1	7/2	Front-runner	83	82	85.0	75.9	64.9
6	STARLITE WALKER	6	5/2	Front-runner	87	76	79.2	80.4	72.4
4	LIVING WATER	4	5/1	Front-runner	86	79	75.0	66.4	54.9
7	GRAB THE GOLD	7	6/1	Front-runner	87	86	68.2	76.4	71.9
5	PUTTHEGLASSDOWN	5	6/1	Trailer	89	81	44.6	75.2	69.7
3	UP AGAINST IT	3	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	90	88	61.5	80.4	76.9
2	ROCKIN THE PALACE	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	78	37.0	73.8	63.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Meadows
PURCHASE

Fair Meadows - Race 6	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / (.50) Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9)
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $21,120 • Post: 8:20P
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. GOSPEL CHARITY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GOSPEL CHARITY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	GOSPEL CHARITY	2/1	8/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	GOSPEL CHARITY	6	2/1	Front-runner	79	70	63.0	74.2	72.2
1	CATALE WINEMIXER	1	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	76	67	30.8	64.9	60.4
2	JUST ROSIE	2	5/1	Trailer	71	62	48.8	49.2	40.2
5	MUCHO MIA	5	4/1	Trailer	71	62	38.5	60.0	53.0
4	SEATTLE WILDCAT	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	60	58.7	56.6	46.6
3	MISS LONG LEGS	3	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	65	47.6	59.2	50.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 READY SHE IS 3/1
# 3 KAGERO 9/5
# 1 RIA FORMOSA 7/2

My selection here is READY SHE IS. She has been racing quite well recently while recording very solid speed figures. Must be given a chance based on the very good Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last contest. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. KAGERO - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Alencar will probably have this mare in excellent position to win the competition. The speed rating of 75 from her last affair looks solid in here. RIA FORMOSA - Must be considered based on the respectable speed fig earned in the last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Century Mile - Race #6 - Post: 8:45pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,500 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#5 TAKE CHARGE CURLY (ML=9/2)
#6 LATE NIGHT LIVING (ML=2/1)


TAKE CHARGE CURLY - Anderson had been running this gelding at higher levels recently. Did win a $16,000 Claiming race though, on February 3rd. Could do it again here. The Jun 28th clash at Century Mile was at a class level of (95). Dropping down in the class scale a significant amount, so he should be in a good position. This gelding recorded a nice speed rating of 78 in his last race. That speed rating should be high enough to score in today's event. LATE NIGHT LIVING - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the 1st attempt on Jun 8th. Should be acquainted with the animal even better this race. This gelding was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 STREET VENDOR (ML=3/1), #3 DERECHO DANDY (ML=4/1), #2 HANDSOME HENRY (ML=6/1),

STREET VENDOR - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the job fulfilled from time to time. Not probable that the rating he recorded on July 5th will be enough in this race. DERECHO DANDY - You always think this animal has a shot to be victorious, but he just misses regularly. When examining today's class figure, he will have to record a better rating than in the last race to battle in this dirt route. HANDSOME HENRY - This entrant will probably need at least one more race after the lackluster showing following the extended vacation. Hard to put your dough on the win end of any racer that finishes second and third as frequently as this one does.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 TAKE CHARGE CURLY on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Trial - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 66

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR NOMINATED ONTARIO BRED TWO YEAR OLDS, SEEKING TO QUALIFY TO THE FINAL, CONTESTED ON WED, JULY 31 FOR NOMINATION PAYMENTS AND FURTHER STAKES RACE DETAILS, SEE THE QROOI STAKES BOOK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 HAD TO BE FABULOUS 3/1
# 2 THE BATMANN 4/1
# 7 PEIGHNTMEADIAMOND 9/2

I've got to go with HAD TO BE FABULOUS. Is worth thinking about and may be a bet - strong Equibase speed figs (61 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Is a contender - given the 62 speed figure from her most recent race. She has competitive class ratings, averaging 61, and has to be considered in this competition. THE BATMANN - With a sound 57 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. Ran a sharp last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Louisiana Downs - Race #6 - Post: 6:10pm - Maiden Special - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#3 MIDNIGHT AVENGER (ML=6/1)
#5 REV TOO (ML=7/2)


MIDNIGHT AVENGER - Coming off a sixth place finish at Evangeline Downs, some may skip this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has respectable odds today. Have to forget about that last grass race. This gelding should do better hitting the dirt right here in this race. REV TOO - Have to forget about that last grass race. This gelding should do better hitting the dirt right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 YOU'RE ON MUTE (ML=2/1), #4 CATHY'S BOY (ML=5/2), #2 DROMAS (ML=8/1),

YOU'RE ON MUTE - Don't believe this racer will make an impact today. That last rating was mediocre when compared with today's class figure. CATHY'S BOY - Would have to advance off that ninth place finish last time to make an impact here. DROMAS - Finished third in his most recent effort with a mediocre fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 MIDNIGHT AVENGER on the nose if you can get odds of 8/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None