Thursday 7/18/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2024, 07:38 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 18, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Hoosier Park has a 13-race card and the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 10. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and will it be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10 (9:46 PM EST)

7-Seeitsayit (5-1)-Team Putman pupil tuned up with 2 qualifiers and raced from the back in both. Did go the 2nd half in 56.4 with a 26.1 last panel. Will take a swing the wrapper comes off tonight and won't be over bet.
8-Rollin Dice (10-1)-There is no form to chew on but does appear to have the speed to beat this bunch. Gets a positive driver change in Brandon Bates and will look for an aggressive steer.
10-TL Thunder Bolt (2-1)-Morning line chalk might be the one to beat and is risky to leave off the ticket. But a 2-year-old starting from the 2nd tier could also be a risky proposition. Will rely on the connections as the Tetrick-Miller combo posts 21% winners.

Race 11 (10:09 PM EST)

3-Dry Creek Princess (5/2)-Comes off a handy win and can offer a fair price tonight. Should race near the top of the stack again and looks like a double up possibility with an efficient trip.
6-Graceful Gala (2-1)-Gets some class relief and rolled the 2nd half in 55.1 off an inside trip. Mike Oosting should have forwardly placed off the gate. May have met a beatable field and should be a small price.

Race 12 (10:32 PM EST)

3-Flirtnwiththepilot (5/2)-Team Wrenn pupil might make the best of a cozy trip and finish the best of all. Could land in the pocket or on the point and either could work for a picture.
5-Winslow (7/2)-Went the back-half in 55.4 and finished with a 26.3 last panel to just get up in time. Could come flying down the lane again and this time the fractions could be lively.

Race 13 (10:55 PM EST)

1-M-M's Tony (3-1)-Beaten chalk comes off an improved effort and now drops. Doesn't have much gate speed and should be a main player if leaving from the rail doesn't hurt chances.
4-True Blue Lindy (4-1)-The 5-year-old was claimed by the Ode barn on 7-5, then drew the 10-hole and took the long way around. Looking for better in the 2nd start for the new connections and Kyle Wilfong sticks.

0.50 Late Pick 4

7,8,10/3,6/3,5/1,4
Total Bet=$12.00

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2024, 07:41 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Belterra Park - Race #4

#1 Braggart Joe	He was pretty one-paced in the debut try at Presque Isle, but he has some room to improve with that debut run under his belt. Obvious upside today.
#3 Buen Samaritino	Forward player seems like the one to beat, but I worry that #7 La Medusa is going to use her cheap speed to force the issue the whole way. Clear chance, but maybe at an underlaid price.
#6 Bamby Boom	Take a look at him on the track ahead of this, but I wonder if he might be ready enough to go out of the box. Some appeal as a fresh face in a race where there is some chance the pace comes apart late.
Race Summary	Braggart Joe has some room to come forward in this second start while trying the local footing for the first time, and I'm hoping the price may stay somewhat playable.

Belterra Park - Race #5

#5 Above the Sky	Her only turf try was a dud, but she was never involved that day, so I'm willing to give her another shot to see if that was just one we can draw a line through. She has some ability to press the pace, and that could serve her well in a spot with some speed drawn outside.
#4 Midnight Grind	She has the speed to get involved early on, and she's getting some class relief after that even allowance try last out. Capable, but I think she's vulnerable to someone jumping up with a good day.
#1 Crystal Snow	Bit worried about all the underneath shares on her page, but she might get a decent run of things while saving ground from the inside. One of the ones.
Race Summary	Above the Sky may be an OK price in here while getting back on the turf, and I think her style leaves her in the right spot to take advantage today.

Belterra Park - Race #8

#6 Future Victory	He woke up when getting back on the lawn last out, and he seems like a threat right back against similar. He might offer another midrange price for a rider who has landed a couple of $20 turf route winners here this season.
#3 Devils Red	Positional speed has a couple of good turf races on his page, and something like his last would probably keep him in the frame again today. Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here.
#5 Perfect Painting	Take your pick. He's another one with a claim on this, but it's worth noting he was 50 cents on the dollar last time out and has not been a serious threat to a winner in most of those underneath shares on his page.
Race Summary	Future Victory would be appealing here at something shorter than the 12/1 ML offering, as the turf form stacks up well off a good run last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2024, 07:41 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#5 BANGKOK BOB (2-1)	Long series of solid works at Laurel Park, barns spots them well and wins often.
#1 JUST FOR THE MONEY (6-1)	Earned top speed fig in debut, raced 4-wide most of way in latest.
#7 FREEDOM STANCE (5-2)	Second as the favorite in first two starts out of town, adds blinkers.
Race Summary	BANGKOK BOB is working forwardly for his debut, hails from a red-hot barn with 2-year-olds and maiden claimers and gets in light with Maldonado. Not sold on those that have run, so give him the nod on a win and place bet.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#2 SHELTRFROMTHESTORM (10-1)	Broke maiden on sprint-to-route angle, price stab to sit the trip.
#3 RUDY RUDY RUDY (7-2)	In top form for hot barn, had trouble in latest, gets Hernandez.
#6 LAST SECOND LOUIE (5-2)	Often in the hunt, might find some more stretch kick on class drop.
Race Summary	A strong pace appears imminent in this one-mile test and that brings SHELTRFROMTHESTORM into the picture as a live longshot. He broke his maiden going a route of ground, was overmatched in two follow-up starts, now draws a favorable post. Play a 2,3/2,3,6,8/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #7

#5 SPLENDID SUMMER (2-1)	Lightly-raced 5yo drops off claim, versatility comes in handy in here.
#2 PRALINE’S CAT (8-1)	Good fit at this level, benefited from fast pace in recent win, use in gimmicks.
#6 THE COLORA KID (15-1)	Finished in the money at double-digit odds in both turf starts.
Race Summary	SPLENDID SUMMER set a clear, fast pace and tired at one mile, but he has shown a passing gear and that could come in handy in this spot. He drops off the Klesaris claim for his second start this year, looking for his third win on the grass. Bet to win and place and play 5-2 and 5-6 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2024, 07:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race 7	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta/$1 Swinger
Claiming $25,000 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Inner Turf • Age 3 • CR: 79 • Purse: $54,200 • Post: 7:58P
INNER TURF FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CRAFTY OAKS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CRAFTY OAKS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Today is a sprint and th e horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
3	CRAFTY OAKS	3/1	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CRAFTY OAKS	3	3/1	Front-runner	79	83	130.8	63.5	61.5
6	LOOKS LUCKY TO ME	6	6/1	Stalker	71	68	74.9	66.4	56.9
1	TWO SIP SALLY	1	5/2	Stalker	73	70	66.3	64.4	55.9
7	MITOLE POWER	7	8/1	Stalker	72	66	45.7	53.8	44.3
4	SHARP FLAME	4	5/1	Trailer	75	74	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	VOICE FROM ABOVE	2	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	78	78	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	CANDID CANDACE	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	70	62.2	63.7	52.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2024, 07:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Maiden Special • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 67 • Purse: $43,520 • Post: 3:43P
IND - R4 - (RAIL AT 24 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PROBATIONER is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PROBATIONER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. BOSS OF ALL BOSSE S: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
2	PROBATIONER	9/5	7/5
4	BOSS OF ALL BOSSES	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	PROBATIONER	2	9/5	Front-runner	66	59	42.7	55.9	52.4
4	BOSS OF ALL BOSSES	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	71.1	55.0	50.0
6	BAYTOWN BARACUS	6	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	64.5	49.3	35.3
1	SIR BAHJY	1	10/1	Trailer	0	0	39.8	46.5	35.5
7	SOUND CAUSE	7	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	48.3	51.2	43.7
8	VEHEMENTLY	8	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	65.4	47.4	37.9
3	BAYTOWN BEATLE	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	58.8	48.3	40.8
5	RED SHAHEEN	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2024, 07:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $45000 Class Rating: 93

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 E'S MAGIC 9/5
# 3 IMAGINE THE MOON 6/1
# 2 ACE REPORTER 5/1

E'S MAGIC has a respectable shot to take this race. Her 84 average has this filly with among the best Equibase Speed Figures for this race. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this filly. Ought to be given a chance based on the formidable speed rating posted in the last race. IMAGINE THE MOON - The speed figure of 84 from her most recent race looks respectable in here. Is worth thinking about and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figures (80 average) at today's distance and surface lately. ACE REPORTER - Klopp and Burgos have won 16 percent of their races giving this animal a quite good chance. Klopp has one of the top winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2024, 07:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race #8 - Post: 5:26pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#9 SWEET SMILA (ML=6/1)
#6 LOST SUNSET (ML=5/1)
#3 IRISH SPARK (ML=3/1)

SWEET SMILA - Have to like this filly today. If you take a look at her PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with every race. Traditional handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Today could be the day. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a solid effort is a good signal. She has the highest earnings per race entered. Take a long look at this horse. LOST SUNSET - Emigh is up for another event today after riding on board this animal for the first time on Jun 29th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. I believe this horse will be right there at the wire. Gets Lasix for the second time, so Kirby must have confidence in her. IRISH SPARK - Last race was at Hawthorne in a race with a class figure of 72. Dropping considerably in class figure this time puts her in a solid position in this event. Entered a Maiden Special race at Hawthorne in the last race and raced on a track listed as good finishing sixth. I'd expect a better race in this race. Adding blinkers occasionally leads to an improved performance on the racetrack.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PEGGY'S WAY (ML=8/5), #7 BABAS GAL (ML=8/1),

PEGGY'S WAY - The favorite is shaky here with the lack of drills. BABAS GAL - You believe this horse is going to win today just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish on top frequently. Recorded a most unsatisfactory rating last out in a $6,250 Maiden Claiming race on Jun 29th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - LOST SUNSET - A tried and true angle. Take a sprinter in the third and fourth start after a freshening. That's the time when they peak.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #9 SWEET SMILA on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2024, 07:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6600 Class Rating: 52

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 LONE TREE 3/1
# 2 CLINTON QUARINTINO 5/2
# 9 WHAT ABOUT JIMMY 5/1

LONE TREE looks to be a very good contender. Wiseman will probably be able to get this gelding to break out sharply in this event. Has to be given a shot based on the strong Equibase Speed Fig recorded in the last race. Earning some nice profits in dirt sprint races. CLINTON QUARINTINO - This gelding with Cruz in the irons makes him a solid choice.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2024, 07:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Saratoga - Race #7 - Post: 4:35pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $70,000 Class Rating: 95

Rating:

#8 NIGHT EFFECT (ML=8/1)
#11 STORMING CHROME (ML=8/1)
#7 RESERVE CURRENCY (ML=3/1)

NIGHT EFFECT - Don't look any further. This steed has my dough. Way too much pace. I have to believe Samsundar is making a good move here. This gelding can only benefit from the shorter trip. STORMING CHROME - The jock/conditioner tandem of Ortiz and De Paz has a strong return on investment together. This gelding is almost always in the money. This gelding is in good condition. Finished second on June 22nd. RESERVE CURRENCY - The 93 last race figure looks strong on paper.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 OWN THE FIELD (ML=4/1), #9 LUCENCY (ML=9/2), #5 PURSUIT OF POWER (ML=8/1),

OWN THE FIELD - This animal doesn't have a winner's spirit. Almost always finishes near the winner. LUCENCY - This vulnerable equine ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely suffer defeat in today's race running that figure. PURSUIT OF POWER - Finished first in his most recent performance with a run-of-the-mill fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #8 NIGHT EFFECT to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8,11] Total Cost: $6