Friday 7/19/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2024, 08:01 AM

Al Cimaglia:Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 19, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Yonkers Raceway begins the weekend with a 12-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Pinebushdragonroll (5/2)-The fastest horse doesn't always win but this one has big speed. Might be best on a 1-mile oval, but could go gate to wire here.
2-Gothic Rock (4-1)-The veteran has seemingly forgot how to win and is 1-18 this year. But has made over half of its lifetime earnings on this oval (95-8-16-13). Jason Bartlett picks here and gets off #3 who he won with in the last start. Likes to race at the top of the stack and this could be a spot for an overdue picture.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

1-Twin B Allure (8/5)-Went gate to wire on 7-12 and now steps up. Fits with this crew and from the rail could be difficult to tackle.
6-Elektra A (3-1)-Made its Yonkers debut last week and raced well versus this kind to finish 3rd. Tyler Buter could leave and might get a pocket ride. Can down the chalk with the right trip.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

4-Hello Yes Hi (3-1)-Has been cashing checks against better and should relish the company. Will look for an aggressive drive from George Brennan. Could blast out and take control early on.
6-Dragons Lucky Lady (5/2)-This is another dropper who may have met a beatable field and comes back in sequence for a change. But hasn't taken a picture since 3-15. Will use with Bartlett at the controls and hopefully won't be over bet.

Race 12 (10:40) PM EST

5-Helpoftheseaons (2-1)-This mare is having a tough season posting only 1 win 15 starts but has been trying hard. Should get a close-up seat, so will respect chances, and does good work at Yonkers.
6-Willy Walton (5-1)-Steps up after wiring easier from the 8-hole. Should offer a square price and Brennan could have the pedal down. Can land in the pocket and trip out to double up.
8-Yanks Dougout (7/2)-Drops after finishing 2nd to better. Tried wiring the last field and will look for Joe B to follow the same plan off the gate. Beaten odds-on chalk ships in from Philly and may have landed in a spot to cash the top check.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,2/1,6/4,6/5,6,8
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2024, 08:02 AM

Colonial Downs Pick 4 Friday, July 19

July 19, 2024 | By Frank Carulli

If you like to handicap 5-1/2 Furlong turf sprints, Colonial Downs is the place to be this Friday, July 19. The Late Pick 4 features two allowance races, an optional claimer and a $12,500 conditioned claimer at the same distance. With 39 entrants, a good payout looms for those who solve the puzzle. Here’s a closer look:

CNL 6th race (6:56 p.m. EST) -- Runners arrive from six tracks for this restricted $87,500 allowance. Four come off turf sprint victories, but none are favored. EASTBOSTONBENNY earned that honor with a 6/1-2-3 sprint record this year on Gulfstream Park’s all-weather track. Make it an ‘ALL’ punch in the leadoff leg of the sequence.

CNL 7th race (7:27 p.m. EST) -- GOODLUCKCHUCK was first or second at the stretch call in 6 of his last 9 starts going a route of ground on the main track, but didn’t win any. Now he transitions to sprinting on the turf as an apparent underlay. He hasn’t raced on the grass in two years, but he does have a recent 7F victory from post 14 to summon and his company lines are strong, featuring the likes of Doin’ittherightway (11-35, $257K), Walk Away Joe (8 wins, $247k) and Gran Andrews (11-30, $186k), to name a few. He bid to a brief lead on the turn last out and just missed, earning the top speed figure of his career. Let’s make him today’s Pick 4 solo play.

CNL 8th race (7:57 p.m. EST) -- MRS. RIP, plagued by bumpy starts as a 3-year-old, broke cleanly in her debut on the main track last year and out-dueled Cat’s Cave, who went wire-to-wire in a $72k allowance at Ellis Park Monday. LUSTY emerged from an early duel and bumping match into the clubhouse turn with a clear backstretch lead. The fast pace and year layoff in that one-mile test took its toll at the quarter pole, but set her up as the horse to beat in this spot.

CNL 9th race (8:27 p.m. EST) -- DEE JAY got eligible for this spot in a turf-to-dirt romp in the first sprint of his career. He’s 7-for-22 in his career and is too good to pass up at 6-1 on the morning line in his first start on the lawn. WHERE’S RAY blazed 5-1/2F in 1:01-2/5 in a runaway allowance win the last time he broke cleanly sprinting. GUAPO AGAIN circled the turn and finished between a $97k turf earner who won and a next-out, wire-to-wire turf allowance victor. BOSS IS A PAL posted a 92 Beyer when he three-peated on the lawn two starts back, but he fired a blank from the outside post last out.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket

CNL 6th Race: ALL
CNL 7th Race: 6
CNL 8th Race: 3, 7
CNL 9th Race: 2, 6, 7, 11

Cost: $32

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2024, 08:03 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Belterra Park - Race #6

#1A Coastland	Hate to take the short price on this triple-threat entry, but it feels like they've got the bases covered in this one. This guy looked good finishing from off the pace in the debut score and might get the last laugh today.
#2 Boots Malone	Nothing wrong with his debut romp, but he's drawn inside and figures to take the worst of the early battle. Capable on form, but not sure the race flow suits.
#1 Fortissimo	He turned in a perfect press-and-pounce score at first asking and should be glued to 'Malone in the early yards. More talent for a tough entry.
Race Summary	Coastland and Fortissimo head the three-runner entry in here, and I'm not too inclined to try to beat them. Boots Malone could be a danger if he's able to shake loose early.

Belterra Park - Race #7

#3 La Artista	Tough to split several of them in this spot, but she should be in a great position into the turn and did well to overcome a slow start in a short field in that score.
#4 Lady Loves Money	She is still winless, but she has some Presque Isle pace that might put her at the front of affairs in a race where most of them have pressed their way to success. Maybe sneaks free?
#9 Silver Kiss	She looks like the one to beat off the flashy debut score, and she was well-meant that day at 50 cents on the dollar. Any reasonable upside here would make her tough.
Race Summary	La Artista might offer a midrange price and doesn't seem out of the question, and I also have a little interest in Lady Loves Money at a price.

Belterra Park - Race #8

#6 I Recall	She has won this race a couple years in a row -- on different surfaces -- so you know she fits well enough. Hoping the presence of the next one will keep the price playable enough.
#11 Generous Lover	She makes a lot of sense while getting in with Ohio-breds, as she managed to post a win in one of her two turf starts and caught a tough winner in the other. Probably tough today at a short kind of price.
#3 Distinctive Flower	She has dangerous pace and stacked up well with this kind locally in the past, but I worry there is enough pressing pace to keep things honest today.
Race Summary	I Recall has thrived in this spot in seasons past, and she should be in line for another great trip while tracking the early splits. Lots to like.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2024, 08:03 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Colonial Downs - Race #1

#6 BACHELORETTE (4-1)	Fits well on best if she can reverse form off the layoff for new connections.
#4 SHUT IT CALI (6-5)	Swung 4-wide at top of lane, couldn’t reach the winning favorite.
#2 CAJUN EXPECTATION (10-1)	Romped to maiden win the last time she ran on conventional dirt.
Race Summary	BACHELORETTE starts fresh for a new barn, runs for the cheapest tag of her career and gets McCarthy to ride. She fits well in she can recapture her late 2023 form when she finished in a dead heat for third with four-time allowance runner-up Miss Easy and behind even-money winner A Kiss For Khozan (3-11, $84k) and runner-up Tiki Bar (4-16, $149k). Bet to win and place.

Colonial Downs - Race #2

#3 GREELEY AND BEN (9-5)	Classy 10yo seeks 20th win at 6F but barn is weak with similar layoff types.
#2 ABSOLUTE GRIT (5-2)	Chased winning stable mate in 1:09-4/5, stands 22/5-4-6 at the distance.
#4 TRIPLE ELVIS (7-2)	Dueled through torrid fractions and just missed in 6F comeback at Churchill.
Race Summary	GREELEY AND BEN, a Grade 3 and multiple stakes winner at this distance, should get ample pace flow to make a strong run at his 24th victory and inch closer to millionaire status. He didn’t fire off a year-layoff in November, but had two wins and two seconds the previous four times he returned from a few months away. Bet to win and place and play 2-3 and 2-4 exactas.

Colonial Downs - Race #5

#2 LIL SWEEZEY (9-2)	No factor in MSW debut, gets blinkers for barn on 14-55 run with turf sprinters.
#9 ROCIO (8-1)	Debuts for barn that sent out three short-priced winners from last six starters at meet.
#4 GLAMOURCENTS (5-2)	Third as debut fave at Churchill but race has come back very weak.
Race Summary	LIL’ SWEEZEY took some money in her Monmouth Park debut, considering the winner was a 1-to-9 first-time starter. Maybe the homebred awakens on the switch to turf with blinkers on for her second go-round. Bet to win and place and play a 2,9/2,4,9/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2024, 08:03 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Century Mile
PURCHASE

Century Mile - Race 6	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-8)
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 8:45P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $31,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * KEEN FLATTER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt o r turf) is at least 50. SAXON SAGA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. RAILWAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. COOLWIND: Horse's win percentage at today's distance (sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. DON'T LET ME DOWN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5	KEEN FLATTER	5/2	7/2
2	SAXON SAGA	6/1	7/1
7	RAILWAY	10/1	10/1
4	COOLWIND	4/1	10/1
6	DON'T LET ME DOWN	3/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	RAILWAY	7	10/1	Front-runner	93	90	78.8	79.3	71.3
5	KEEN FLATTER	5	5/2	Front-runner	96	98	69.7	94.2	89.7
2	SAXON SAGA	2	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	90	92	86.8	74.2	68.7
6	DON'T LET ME DOWN	6	3/1	Trailer	92	85	63.0	82.7	76.7
4	COOLWIND	4	4/1	Trailer	93	83	57.2	82.1	73.6
1	POINT TO THE STARS	1	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	90	86	77.6	83.5	75.0
3	WALKTHELINE	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	94	81	70.2	77.7	67.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2024, 08:04 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Saratoga
PURCHASE

Saratoga - Race 10	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10) Wagers
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $90,000 • Post: 6:19P
(RAIL AT 18 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED). (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * GEOPOLITICS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HEART OF THE NIGHT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CERRETTA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. POSSE ROCKS: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 star ts). Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
4	GEOPOLITICS	5/2	9/2
3	HEART OF THE NIGHT	4/1	5/1
11	CERRETTA	8/1	9/1
15	POSSE ROCKS	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	HEART OF THE NIGHT	3	4/1	Front-runner	81	83	113.0	76.3	71.3
4	GEOPOLITICS	4	5/2	Front-runner	84	85	100.5	79.6	75.1
13	BEAUTIFUL THIEF	13	8/1	Front-runner	0	0	94.8	73.0	66.0
9	BETTER BE SMART	9	12/1	Front-runner	77	67	92.9	68.3	53.3
12	LIL' HAYADOIN	12	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	80.7	56.7	40.7
1	ARIANA RYE	1	15/1	Front-runner	75	63	56.7	59.6	43.6
2	LA FIERE	2	30/1	Front-runner	0	0	11.4	23.7	3.7
5	STARSINTHECITY	5	10/1	Front-runner	75	74	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	AUNT YOLA	8	12/1	Stalker	72	69	53.3	64.0	51.0
6	SPLASHY	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	73	68.7	69.7	55.2
11	CERRETTA	11	8/1	Trailer	80	75	60.0	73.6	62.1
7	BAREFOOT DISCO	7	10/1	Trailer	81	65	42.7	61.6	45.6
16	NIKKI BRAINBURST	16	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	63.5	39.8	23.3

Unknown Running Style: RUSSALITE (10/1) [Jockey: Ortiz Jr Irad - Trainer: Donk David G], GOOD MISSION (10/1) [Jockey: Rider Tba - Trainer: Atras Rob], POSSE ROCKS (8/1) [Jockey: Santana Jr Ricardo - Trainer: Levine Bruce N].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2024, 08:04 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #6 - Post: 8:10pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#1 HI HEELED WARRIOR (ML=2/1)

HI HEELED WARRIOR - Taking a trip to a lower class level; has the class to make her presence felt. Rodriguez is reunited today with this equine after enjoying some pretty nice success riding in the past. This filly has been claimed each of her last two starts. She figures to be tough in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 HAPPY UNION (ML=9/5), #2 SPECTACULLARI (ML=3/1), #5 DESI'S REWARD (ML=6/1),

HAPPY UNION - This filly gave a lackluster effort last time out. Hard to put your dough on the win end of any racer that finishes second and third as regularly as this thoroughbred does. Based on the pace scenario in this event, this equine doesn't fit in here. With a single front-runner and this horse having to race from behind, she sure has a tough assignment. SPECTACULLARI - This mare is always in the money, but just doesn't win. Difficult to bet on her on the front end. Notched a mediocre speed rating last time out in a $4,000 Claiming race on May 4th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that rating. DESI'S REWARD - Difficult to invest in at 6/1 odds after the two most recent showings.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HI HEELED WARRIOR - Judging by Kulp's impressive win percent after claiming a horse, which they just did with this one, this looks to be an excellent wagering proposition.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #1 HI HEELED WARRIOR to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2024, 08:04 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Colonial Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $80000 Class Rating: 102

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, VA RESTRICTED, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ARDEN'SLUCKYTOBE 3/1
# 2 ABSOLUTE GRIT 5/2
# 4 TRIPLE ELVIS 7/2

I've got to go with ARDEN'SLUCKYTOBE. I like Lyapustina on this gelding to give him a very good chance to hit the wire first. Will probably be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the midpoint of the contest. With a strong 103 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. ABSOLUTE GRIT - With a strong 94 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Should be considered based on the respectable speed fig earned in the last race. TRIPLE ELVIS - Has very good early pace and will probably fare strongly against this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2024, 08:04 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 76

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE JULY 19 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 4 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 19 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 19 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 12 MY CANDY BIZ 3/2
# 5 CHILL HAZE 2/1
# 11 LOST A LEGEND 9/2

My selection in this race is MY CANDY BIZ. Must be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last affair. Is worth a close look and may be a wager - strong speed figures (84 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Always difficult to beat Diaz and Diaz working together, winning 42 percent of their races. CHILL HAZE - The speed figure of 71 from his last affair looks solid in here. Like the finishing positions in the last couple of events. LOST A LEGEND - Had one of the most respectable speed figures of this group of horses in this race in his last race. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase speed figs which have been strong - 68 avg - of late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2024, 08:04 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:53pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#5 AMY MULE (ML=9/2)
#8 SHE CAN SCAT (ML=7/2)
#2 DAME CATHERINE (ML=6/1)
#3 BUCKIN' LUCKY (ML=1/1)

AMY MULE - I like to invest in this angle, a horse coming back off a strong race within the last month. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figures (44-57-63) make this thoroughbred a solid contender. SHE CAN SCAT - I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid effort within the last 30 days. DAME CATHERINE - This jockey and handler's equines have been generating a beneficial return on investment. Got to appreciate a good work horse. This filly's last work was second fastest of the day for the distance. Finished out of the money last out at Monmouth Park, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think she's got a chance. This pony broke from the outside at Monmouth Park last time out, racing 1 1/16 miles, but is getting a low post in this race, which should help her chances today. The improved speed ratings over the last 3 races is strong. Levine drops her in this affair fit and ready to go. BUCKIN' LUCKY - That last work tells me this filly is set for a top effort. A racer coming back this soon after a sharp outing is a good sign. This filly's last rating recorded on July 6th is utmost in last race speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 RAW POWER (ML=8/1),

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 AMY MULE on the win end if we get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None