Sunday 7/21/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-21-2024, 09:29 AM

Nicoletti & Nadeau: Gulfstream Mandatory Pick 6 Team Ticket |

July 21, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Gulfstream Park boasts a $159,933 carryover in its Rainbow 6 wager Sunday and offers a mandatory payout on the sequence today. Races 5-10 make up the pick 6. We’ve combined the selections of local handicappers Ron Nicoletti and Brian Nadeau to help you consider an affordable ticket at the 20-cent base.

Race 5:
8-3
Brian’s best bet 8-Mywifeknowsitall

Race 6:
8-7-4

Race 7:
3-8-9-2
Ron’s longshot pick 3-Hakkimi

Race 8:
8-1-2-6
Brian’s longshot pick 8-Evanora

Race 9:
8-9
Ron’s best bet 8-One Sharp Cookie

Race 10:
1-10-5-6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-21-2024, 09:29 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 21, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a 16-race card to kick-off the week. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

4-Pants On Fire (5/2)-Using the Brian Brown 3-year-old and will look to beat the 8/5 program chalk #5-Swingtown. Comes off 2 sharp efforts and draws better tonight. The Brown-Wrenn combo has posted 24% winners. The Catch The Fire colt could add some value to what could be a chalky sequence.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

5-Saulsbrook Genesis (5/2)-The Burke trainee has hit the board in 12 of 15 and has taken 4 pictures at Nfld. Gets some post relief and can dance with this kind.
6-Liteningonthebeach (4-1)-Bounces back and forth between the Meadows and here. Has a gate speed advantage over others and Aaron Merriman should be blasting out when the wings fold. Could be tough to tackle if gets the top without burning much gas.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

1-Spiritshappyending (8-1)-Stayed inside at ScD and was used a couple of times. Had a bumpy journey and still cashed a 2nd place check. This will be 2nd time for Lasix, will look for a smooth trip and a chance to pop at a price.
4-Fabio Hanover (4-1)-This another Brown entry who has looked good so far hitting the board in all 3 races with one picture. Wrenn steers and should be in play early in the mile.
5-Rick Wink (2-1)-This Burke pupil is looking for its 3rd straight. This colt appears to be versatile and looks like the one to beat if takes to the new oval.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

2-No More Sweets (3-1)-Has been a bridesmaid versus this kind in the last 2 starts. Likes to race on the point and shouldn't have an issue getting there unlike last the last start. Could get the jump on this field and be tough to tackle. This race looks like it will need to go through the 2nd morning line choice.

$4.00 Late Pick 4

4/5,6/1,4,5/2
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-21-2024, 09:30 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #7

#5 Ag Bullet	Guessing she's going to bounce back in a big way after stopping badly on Derby weekend, as she has some sharp previous form that would make her competitive from close range.
#2 Ascendancy	She might be a little light for these, but she has faced some tough customers on the turf in the races on her page, and this softer spot could give her a chance to carry her form from the main track last month.
#7 Richi	She makes a lot of sense off the solid North American debut, and she should get the jump on some of the serious finishing threats. Capable underlay?
Race Summary	Probably worth forgiving the last one for Ag Bullet, but the slightly stronger lean in here for me will be trying to get Ascendancy in the gimmicks at a price with one of the more logical players.

Del Mar - Race #9

#10 Irideo	Finisher typically settles for a share at best, but his last was decent enough to think that a small move forward off that might keep him in the picture today on the drop out of Grade I company. Best stuff would do.
#3 Almendares	Honest finisher goes second off the break after a solid finishing effort going short last out, but I worry he'll be just a bit overbet today. Obvious player on consistency.
#4 First Peace	Positional pace should be in another perfect spot into the far turn, but I am mildly concerned that he tends to find one or two of them a little bit too good most times he races.
Race Summary	Irideo has a little price appeal in hopes he'll bring one of his better efforts today, and I'd be pretty comfortable being two deep with him and Almendares.

Del Mar - Race #11

#10 The Rabbi	I liked his debut win, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and forgive the last one when he pulled up and walked off -- he came back to work six days later, so all signs point to him being no worse for wear.
#1 British Isles	Wouldn't be a surprise to see him win this without too much trouble while dropping out of Grade III company, but I think the price is going to be a bit shorter than it should be.
#9 Siennois	He seems like a player on paper, but he has been no match for British Isles in their two recent meetings but validated that guy's form with a win last time out. One of the ones.
Race Summary	The Rabbi may be a midrange price today while a bit overlooked, but I think he has a claim on this with a sharp debut score under his belt before the last one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-21-2024, 09:30 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Wyoming Downs
PURCHASE

Wyoming Downs - Race 6	$2 Second Half Mid Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $2 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta ($.10 Box)
Claiming $4,000 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 3:10P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * DIXON TUFF: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. HAUGHTY KITTY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MIDNIGHT KID: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. ANGELA'S ANGEL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SHADYFIED: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was wi thin the last ten days.
2	DIXON TUFF	7/2	5/1
1	HAUGHTY KITTY	8/1	6/1
7	MIDNIGHT KID	5/2	7/1
10	ANGELA'S ANGEL	4/1	8/1
3	SHADYFIED	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	HAUGHTY KITTY	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	62	54.0	52.2	43.2
10	ANGELA'S ANGEL	10	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	57	34.0	51.4	42.4
2	DIXON TUFF	2	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	58	63	32.0	54.2	47.7
3	SHADYFIED	3	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	60	7.0	51.8	41.8
7	MIDNIGHT KID	7	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	72	69	0.0	55.4	48.9
9	YOU'RE MY BOY KAT	9	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	58	55.0	38.6	29.6
4	LEGAL EAGLE	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	60	46.8	43.8	32.8
5	R T'S IRON MAN	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	62	44.0	38.6	26.1
8	MOBILEAGILEHOSTILE	8	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	51	38.5	49.0	36.0
6	VINCE'S CORNER	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	48	0.0	48.6	29.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-21-2024, 09:30 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Great Falls
PURCHASE

Great Falls - Race 8	$2 W-P-S / $3 Exacta / $3 Quinella $2 Trifecta ($1 Box) $2 Superfecta ($1 Box)
Allowance • 5 1/4 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 3:55P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. SOUTH SEA is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FASCINATED: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SOUTH SEA: Horse ranks i n the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NO LIMITATION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. EYE CANDY RANDY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days.
7	SOUTH SEA	3/1	6/1
6	FASCINATED	5/2	6/1
4	NO LIMITATION	7/2	6/1
1	EYE CANDY RANDY	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	EYE CANDY RANDY	1	6/1	Front-runner	74	70	83.0	57.4	49.4
5	BIBLEMAN	5	12/1	Front-runner	81	74	81.0	53.0	45.5
6	FASCINATED	6	5/2	Front-runner	80	80	57.0	70.2	65.2
7	SOUTH SEA	7	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	67	91.0	65.4	60.9
4	NO LIMITATION	4	7/2	Trailer	78	79	54.5	74.4	69.9
3	BORN TO RACE	3	8/1	Trailer	73	72	34.6	64.2	53.7
2	GOLDEN TIGER	2	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	58	58	0.0	46.1	32.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-21-2024, 09:31 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Saratoga

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $55000 Class Rating: 83

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, THIS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 MUSICAL MAESTRO 4/1
# 10 DEVIL IN DISGUISE 7/2
# 7 PALLINO 15/1

I like MUSICAL MAESTRO here. Could best this group of animals based on the speed rating - 86 - of his last outing. Has run well when racing a turf sprint race. DEVIL IN DISGUISE - Could provide positive returns based on decent recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 87. Change in Lasix (on Lasix) may be the means to a return. PALLINO - Has been running strongly lately and will almost certainly be up on the lead early on. Could beat this field given the 82 Equibase Speed Fig garnered in his last outing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-21-2024, 09:31 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #6 - Post: 3:06pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $53,000 Class Rating: 102

Rating:

#7 MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT (ML=8/1)
#8 SUPREME LAW (ML=5/2)
#2 PETINGAS TWIN (ML=8/5)
#3 CATAHOULA MOON (ML=4/1)

MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT - Although it's been awhile, this gelding won at a higher class level and at today's distance. I think he could run back to that old form today. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit. Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last prep was second fastest of the day for the distance. SUPREME LAW - I like that recent contest on June 30th at Laurel where he finished second. This gelding should be in top form, this far into his form cycle. PETINGAS TWIN - This colt has been training well, and the recent bullet work says he's primed for a nice effort today. I like this colt a lot here. He shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. Changes tracks from last out at Penn National to here. Multiple wins at multiple tracks tell me this horse likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. CATAHOULA MOON - Off the board finish in the last race at Laurel was better than it looked on paper. He improved position down the lane and never gave up. Last race Jun 7th was pretty strong for a $40,000 Optional Claiming race so this gelding's performance wasn't all that bad. I like this gelding. Has the topmost earnings per race in this event. The latest speed fig of 102 is the top last race speed rating in the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 GERRYS GEM (ML=8/1),

GERRYS GEM - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance contests in order to wager on him. A pattern of dropping speed ratings 94/88/78 for this runner.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT to win if you can get odds of 5/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-21-2024, 09:31 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ruidoso Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $33000 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 CARTEL PERRY 7/2
# 2 ROW BY ROW 10/1
# 4 BV I B QUICK 6/1

CARTEL PERRY is my choice. Is hard not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very strong - 78 avg - of late. Looks very strong against this group and ought to be one of the leaders. Recorded a strong speed rating last time out. ROW BY ROW - Is tough not to look at given the company run in lately. His 72 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase speed figs in this race. BV I B QUICK - Earned a strong speed fig in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-21-2024, 09:32 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Sacramento - Race #2 - Post: 5:29pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#7 MONSIEUR (ML=5/1)
#5 FRANK THE CAT (ML=10/1)

MONSIEUR - Trainer Baker moves this horse down the ladder based on class to face weaker company. Look for a solid effort in this race. He has the topmost (EPS) earnings per start. Check out this one. FRANK THE CAT - Analyzers took note of this gelding in his maiden race at Golden Gate Fields, sending him off at low odds. Look for a solid chance of improvement right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BESKAR (ML=5/2), #6 HOT GOBLIN (ML=3/1), #4 ONLY ALLEGED (ML=4/1),

BESKAR - This gelding hasn't had any recent good fortune in sprint events. I find it hard to invest in him in this event. This thoroughbred just hasn't looked sharp lately. Unlikely that the speed rating he recorded on Jul 6th will be enough in this affair. HOT GOBLIN - The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not wagering on this less than sharp equine off of that trend. ONLY ALLEGED - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of races. Hasn't hit the board in any short distance contests lately. Unlikely to see him doing it this time around either.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #7 MONSIEUR on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip