Tuesday 7/23/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Saratoga Scouting Report: July 24-28, 2024

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July 22, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Key Races

Wednesday | G2 Honorable Miss (f/m dirt sprint)

Thursday | Caress (f/m turf sprint)

Friday | G2 Amsterdam (3yo dirt sprint)

Saturday | G1 Vanderbilt (elder dirt sprint), G2 Jim Dandy (3yo dirt route)

Sunday | G2 Bowling Green (turf route)

Horsepower

Wednesday | G2 Bed O’ Roses winner Accede vs. Munny’s Gold (R7 G2 Honorable Miss) )

Thursday | Caress defending champ Roses for Debra vs. G2 Intercontinental winner Future Is Now (R9 Caress)

Friday | 4-time Oaklawn stakes winner Valentine Candy (R3 G2 Amsterdam); ’22 G1 Test winner Chi Town Lady (R4 allowance); ’23 G2 Vosburgh runner-up Accretive vs. ’23 G2 Pat Day Mile winner General Jim, ’23 G2 Nerud winner Three Technique & ’23 G3 Ack Ack winner Zozos (R9 allowance)

Saturday: Impressive Gulfstream debut winner Speak Easy returns (R4 allowance); 2x G3 Count Fleet winner Skelly vs. G2 True North winner Baby Yoda and ’23 G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint third-place finisher Nakatomi (R6 G1 Vanderbilt); $1.2 million debut juvenile colt (Into Mischief-Serengeti Empress) Invictus (R7 maiden sprint); ’23 2YO champ Fierceness vs. G1 Preakness winner Seize the Grey and G1 Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone (R10 G2 Jim Dandy).

Sunday: G2 Man o’ War winner Silver Knott (probable G2 Bowling Green; draw will be Wednesday).

Extra Incentives

Saturday: $10,000-added Fun in the Sun handicapping tournament (last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 Del Mar)

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites won only 14 of 51 (27%) during Week 2 of the Spa meet, including 2-11 in claiming races.

-- Trainer Chad Brown had a big Week 2, winning 7 races (32%) with a $1.63 ROI for every $1 bet. He was 59% in the exacta.

-- Trainer Mark Casse hit with precision at 7: 3-2-0 with $13, $13 and $18 winners. All 3 winners came with Dylan Davis as they were 3-for-4 in tandem.

-- Belmont at the Big A meet-leading jockey Manny Franco continued his strong run with a Week 2-best 7 wins among all riders. He hit 21% wins with a $1.76 ROI for every $1 bet. Maybe most impressively, he won for 7 different trainers.

-- Horses exiting races at Aqueduct won 24 of the 51 races during Week 2, but through 2 weeks of the season, those exiting races in Kentucky have an 18% win rate, while those exiting NYRA races have won an 11% win rate.

-- Sire Cairo Prince’s offspring are a sharp 10; 4-2-1 at the current meet, most notably a near-perfect 4: 3-1-0 on the dirt (odds 2-5, 7-1, 9-1, 18-1).

-- Jockey Luis Saez is 0-6 aboard favorites through the first 2 weeks of the meet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#1 Slainte Mhath	Not much from her so far in her synthetic era, but she flashed a touch of pace going shorter for twice this price last time out and might be able to try to mix it up early from the inside while trying two turns for the first time. Pedigree and a more modest route tempo could work in her favor.
#6 Gio's My Dad	She has had her chances (and then some), but her last one wasn't bad and keeps her in the frame again with something similar. Not out of the question if it all falls right for her.
#5 Susanoo	Her only local try produced the best run of her career, and she's getting into the easiest spot she has seen yet. Think she might be the one to beat.
Race Summary	Slainte Mhath and Gio's My Dad make for a potential price one-two punch in the gimmicks, and I wouldn't be totally against trying to take a stand with the two of them here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#3 Fleur Delacour	She's back to try winners after graduating at 40 cents on the dollar against four others here earlier this month. She's not super well known for passing horses, but there's almost nothing else but pace signed on, and I wonder if she might get towed into the splits while put into a tracking spot early by default. Some appeal at a midrange price.
#1 Di's Surprise	She's got some form from Hawthorne that suggests she is one of the ones, but I worry she's going to take the worst of it from the fence in a race with some other speed stacked up outside of her.
#4 Candi Girl	She's probably supposed to win this while shipping in on the stakes drop for Brad Cox, and she might be able to relax enough early to avoid getting too involved with some other speed.
Race Summary	Fleur Delacour might get a decent run while in touch throughout, and I'm willing to take a stand against Candi Girl who will surely get bet for a team that has only sent two horses here recently without any success -- granted, both came in stakes company, but she probably doesn't have to win this.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#8 Colonel Poppy	Think he's worth a little look at a price while cutting back off the route dud, as he was not too far off this kind in a couple starts before that.
#5 City Tripper	He's a little light on class from those recent running lines, but he has the right style to fall in line behind the splits and try to land this as the right horse at the right time.
#2 Outhustle	Wouldn't be any surprise to see him throttle these with something better than he showed last time, and those who liked him that day probably get at least a slightly better number this time around.
Race Summary	Colonel Poppy has a few deceptively good sprint running lines on the page, and he might be overlooked on the tote with some bounce-back potential on the cutback.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#6 UPTOWN SOCIAL (12-1)	Can be excused for latest, could sit similar trip to top effort in race prior.
#3 STOMPING HOT ROD (3-1)	Draws outside of rival who out-dueled him at 6F and offers better value.
#1 RARE STRIPE (5-2)	Out-dueled ‘Hot Rod’ as the favorite and is well-spotted for repeat.
Race Summary	UPTOWN SOCIAL is worth a longshot stab off his race two starts back, when he showed a passing gear and posted his top speed figure in a win at this distance. On top of that, he had excuses – fractious in gate, steadied back early, drifted wide into the stretch -- in his follow-up start. Bet to win and place and play 6-1 and 6-3 exactas.

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#3 ATHENS MOON (9-2)	Solid grass form out of town, won both starts for a tag, wouldn’t expect 9-2.
#8 WANNA WINNER (12-1)	Two photo-finish wins and a second at Aqueduct in ’24, tries the turf.
#6 AMERICAN DOLLARS (6-1)	Ran away from Louisiana-bred rivals on cutback to long sprint.
Race Summary	ATHENS MOON, the only two-time turf winner in the field, raced 6-wide in a 12-horse allowance at Fair Grounds and faded on soft footing. He romped in his prior two starts at one mile at today’s level. Bet to win and place.

Louisiana Downs - Race #5

#7 GIVE EM HAIL GAYLE (3-1)	Has speed, can carry it farther with race under belt and Lasix again.
#2 MISCHIEF PRINCESS (7-2)	Asmussen firster prepped at Keeneland, breezed :36-4/5 from the gate.
#4 DAZZLING DUCHESS (4-1)	Trainer sent out winner against ‘Gayle’ at Lone Star Park.
Race Summary	GIVE EM HAIL GAYLE showed good speed in the mornings and carried it over to race day, but she was ‘overpowered’ on a brief lead at the quarter pole by a first-out winning favorite. That experience could make the winning difference in a field of mostly debut runners. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 1	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) * PICK 4 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $13,700 • Post: 1:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. ROAD TO ROYALTY is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ROAD TO ROYALTY: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse has the hig hest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SWEEPING PASSION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure a t the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1A	ROAD TO ROYALTY	7/2	2/1
3	SWEEPING PASSION	3/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LA DAMA DORADA	3	7/2	Front-runner	44	41	55.0	38.9	28.9
1A	ROAD TO ROYALTY	6	7/2	Stalker	75	70	83.9	67.1	61.6
8	DEBBIE DARLING	9	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	62	53.2	50.0	45.0
3	SWEEPING PASSION	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	65	63	43.8	59.6	55.1
4	MIDNIGHT EMPRESS	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	55	49	36.2	48.4	36.4
2	KITTY TIN TIN	1	10/1	Trailer	61	55	35.4	43.4	31.4
7	KAZ' ROSE	8	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	71	49.8	32.6	19.1
5	MIAMI TWOFER	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	46	44	47.4	36.0	24.5
6	JOURNEY OF FIVE	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	46	43.8	37.4	22.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for FanDuel Horse Racing
PURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race 6	$1.00 Daily Double (Races 6-7) / Exacta .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .10 Cent Superfecta
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 3:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. KHOZAN'S VALENTINE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DEVIL'S TOWER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. W W SCO UT'S HONOR: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long la yoff. KHOZAN'S VALENTINE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. FAST JACK: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route )/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	DEVIL'S TOWER	9/5	4/1
5	W W SCOUT'S HONOR	8/1	6/1
1	KHOZAN'S VALENTINE	5/2	8/1
3	FAST JACK	2/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	FAST JACK	3	2/1	Front-runner	86	83	99.0	89.4	81.4
5	W W SCOUT'S HONOR	5	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	103	92	94.6	91.8	86.8
1	KHOZAN'S VALENTINE	1	5/2	Stalker	95	84	76.2	86.2	79.7
4	DEVIL'S TOWER	4	9/5	Trailer	101	90	69.6	97.2	95.2
2	BUREAU	2	10/1	Trailer	86	85	52.4	79.8	68.8
6	CORTESE	6	8/1	Trailer	98	92	45.0	83.4	73.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 93

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 SMASH 3/1
# 1 VILLAGE PREACHER 8/1
# 7 VAN 15/1

My selection in here is SMASH. He has been running strongly and the speed figs are among the best in this field. Should be given a chance - I like the figs from the last competition. Is worth taking a close look at and may be a wager - strong Equibase speed figs (83 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. VILLAGE PREACHER - Difficult to pass on this gelding with Martinez in the irons. With a decent 94 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. VAN - Is worth a look and may be a wager - strong speed figures (79 average) at today's distance and surface lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:26pm - SO - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#7 FROSTED DIAMOND (ML=7/2)


FROSTED DIAMOND - When Gonzalez and Padilla team up on horses the return on investment has been great at +27. For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of readiness there is. Look at that last one - 48.3. Very impressive.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 LOVE TO EAT (ML=9/5), #4 TEMPEST RISING (ML=9/2), #5 PRINCESS CUPID (ML=5/1),

LOVE TO EAT - This racer hasn't been on the track since Jun 26th. Not even any workouts. This horse ran a quite unimpressive speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will likely suffer defeat in today's event running that fig. TEMPEST RISING - Tough to keep chasing this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. Substandard speed fig in the last race at Parx Racing at 7 furlongs. Don't believe this racer will improve too much in today's event. PRINCESS CUPID - That was merely not a very good showing in the last affair. This mare hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in sprint events. Tough to wager on her in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 FROSTED DIAMOND to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 117 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 DAZZLING DUCHESS 4/1
# 2 MISCHIEF PRINCESS 7/2
# 6 LITTLE ALLI 12/1

DAZZLING DUCHESS looks decent to best this field. Has solid trainer figures (Gelner wins 19 percent of the time with 2yolds) to back up this choice. This equine enters today's competition on Lasix. Has to be given a shot as sire's progeny has among the top win rate as two-year olds. MISCHIEF PRINCESS - Fits in well here based on Asmussen's strong results with 2 year olds recently. She looks like a very strong contender based on sire's progeny results as two-year olds. Solid rider and handler combo winning 16 percent of their races working together. LITTLE ALLI - Not wise to overlook this filly as Venzor has given bettors big profits at the windows.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #7 - Post: 9:30pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,800 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#1 S S COSMOPOLITAN (ML=4/1)
#4 MACHEN MAYHEM (ML=6/1)


S S COSMOPOLITAN - I like to play this handicapping theory, a racer coming back off a nice effort within the last 30 days. Don't often see a lucrative return on investment like +173. This jock/trainer duo has done well together over the last year. Filly is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a good performance today. MACHEN MAYHEM - I am keen on that latest effort on July 15th at Mountaineer Park where she ended up third. I think this mare is very sharp right now. I like the fact that Baird brings her back to a race so quickly. Baird has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. You have to really like that latest race speed figure, 60, which is the highest recent race speed fig of this field. Should do well right here in this race. Weight shift of -5 from July 15th race at Mountaineer Park.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 THELASTSAY (ML=3/1), #9 HOLLY ROLLER (ML=9/2), #8 SHOTGUN MARGARET (ML=5/1),

THELASTSAY - I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks. Quite unimpressive speed figure last time around the track at Charles Town at 4 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's event. HOLLY ROLLER - This horse likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually win. Keep out of the top spot. SHOTGUN MARGARET - Not a good enough price on this entrant at the likely odds of 5/1.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 S S COSMOPOLITAN to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None