Thursday 7/25/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-25-2024, 07:39 AM

Scott Shapiro: Del Mar $144K Pick 6 Carryover Analysis | Thursday

July 24, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Kahuna Magic’s off the pace victory in Race 6 on Sunday and Gold Foot’s half-length score in the finale at odds of 25-1 paved the way to the first Pick 6 carryover of the summer on Thursday at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club. With over $144k in free money offered up in the traditional Pick 6 in San Diego County, you know I will be diving in head first to kick off the racing week. Here are my thoughts on the sequence:

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 3:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Woodbine Way; 1 Aventapp
Backups: 7 Gritty Girl

Forecast: The sequence kicks off with a 5-furlong dash over the Del Mar lawn where for the first time this summer the temporary rails will be out (at 24 feet) making saving ground and finding a favorable forward position far more important. This should benefit #2 Woodbine Way who returns to the turf for the first time since being claimed by trainer Lorenzo Campuzano. The Tourist mare should relish getting back on the lawn and finding a spot where there is not a ton of early speed signed on. She does not need the lead but if jockey Geovanni Fracno gets it, she could prove to be tough to catch. #1 Aventapp has never hit the board in four starts over the Del Mar sod but trainer Mark Glatt is off to a strong start to the summer and this one should get a favorable ground saving voyage under Kazushi Kimura.

#7 Gritty Girl moves back to the turf after a pair of efforts going 1000 yards over the Los Alamitos main track. She has early speed and attracts Edwin Maldonado making a send mission likely. I will include her as a backup given her likely price.

Race 4:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2 Visceral
Backups: None

Forecast: #2 Visceral tries two turns in his second career start for trainer Mark Glatt. The $400k OBS April 2023 purchase not only ran into a buzzsaw going six-furlongs on debut at Santa Anita Park in May but got stuck behind a 50-1 shot allowing the top three finishers to all get the jump. Now Glatt takes the blinkers off and stretches this son of Violence out to two turns in a race that features a number of runners that have had far too many opportunities to get excited about. Expecting a big effort after the troubled trip along the rail in his first try.

Race 5:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Sassy Prancealot
Backups: 4 Baby Kristen

Forecast: The second turf sprint of the sequence is a state-bred first-level allowance event of course at five-furlongs. #4 Baby Kristen is listed as the 5-2-morning line choice shipping south for veteran conditioner Bill McLean. The Cat Burglar mare is very likely to find herself on the lead but has really struggled to finish the deal on the lawn evidenced by her 0 for 5-record with just one second. She is capable of taking this field gate-to-wire but I much prefer #9 Sassy Prancealot. The Phil D’Amato trainee has been well backed in both career starts, including her first over the grass last out where she was clearly still learning things yet dominant in her nearly three-length win. She should sit another great trip under Antonio Fresu and makes for an intriguing single in the sequence with the public likely to also include Baby Kristen at the very least.

Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Splashed in Gold; 2 Antibes; 12 Doradus; 7 Eddie’s Wave
Backups: None

Forecast: #10 Ocasek was made the lukewarm 7-2-morning line favorite by Del Mar oddsmaker Jeff Siegel coming in off a third-place effort against better last month at Santa Anita. There is not a lot of quality form to go off of in this spot, so I understand the public potentially flocking to this Candy Ride gelding. However, I am willing to let him beat me after failing at odds-on last time out despite a favorable stalking trip. I will use several in hopes of separating a bit from the public.

#4 Splashed in Gold failed to beat a horse home in his debut effort on June 9 after being tough to relax early, but that came against far better competition than he encounters here. The Cal-bred appears spotted to win on the move from turf-to-dirt by trainer Bob Hess Jr. Hess also sends out #12 Doradus who has not raced since January of 2023 but moves off the inside for the first time and gets some class relief. #2 Antibes also takes the drop to the bottom in his first start off the claim for trainer Kelly Bainum. Bainum adds the blinkers and spots this son of Smiling Tiger realistically in his first start since late May. #7 Eddie’s Wave underwhelmed on debut but took some public support going off at 3-1. The George Todaro homebred appears set for a move forward in his second lifetime start.

Race 7: Cougar II Stakes (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Reincarnate
Backups: None

Forecast: The stakes action for the first full week of racing at Del Mar gets started with this 10-furlong affair over the main track where #4 Salesman is listed as the 8-5-favorite. The 7YO gelding relished the added ground two-back in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G2) earning a career best 92 Beyer. Clearly the big effort on the Breeders’ Cup undercard took a lot out of him though, since he did not compete in the afternoons again until March when he failed to beat a horse home in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). The Richard Mandella trainee gets some class relief here but I prefer the 9-5-second choice #3 Reincarnate. The Good Magic colt ran against the best 3YOs in the land in 2023 and has put forth three solid efforts against graded stakes foes since kicking off his 4YO campaign for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. He meets the softest field he has encountered in sometime and should have no issue getting the 1 � mile distance.

Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 In Suspense; 3 Nation
Backups: 1 Rowley; 9 Sweet Odyssey

Forecast: The sequence concludes with a challenging MSW event at one-mile over the lawn where #3 Nation is an understandable 5-2-morning line favorite for trainer Michael McCarthy. The son of Constitution debuted last fall at Keeneland where he was went off as the 3-1-pubiic choice in a two-turn race for protected maidens. The 4YO gelding was still green but showed a lot of talent to come from off the pace to finish second. A move forward and he will be tough to beat but he is coming off a significant layoff for a new barn, so he may need the race. With that in mind, I went to #7 In Suspense on top. The son of Mendelssohn has shown an affinity for the lawn rattling off back-to-back career best Beyers since switching surfaces for trainer Ryan Hanson. Hanson’s $2.77 ROI in Del Mar turf routes over the last three years makes this one a must use with Juan Hernandez jumping aboard for the initial time.

#1 Rowley and #9 Sweet Odyseey both make their second lifetime start for trainer Phil D’Amato after off the board finishes to get their careers started. They both are capable of improving for a barn that has clicked with 21% of their turf routers at Del Mar over the last two years.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-25-2024, 07:40 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #5

#7 O Mandy	She might find a good spot while keeping tabs on the more committed pace players, and she has decent enough turf form on her page to think she might still be able to build on it after the graduation run last out.
#4 Baby Kristen	Speed is better on dirt and synthetic than turf, but she was competitive at this level on the grass at Golden Gate a couple starts back and has the kind early hoof that makes her dangerous every time.
#1 Quick Kate	She would benefit if all the potential speed hooked up early, as she can save some ground from the fence and try to find her way through late. Threat in the end.
Race Summary	O Mandy might get a perfect first-jump trip against this crew while tracking the speedy Baby Kristen every step of the way. Think the price might be OK, too.

Del Mar - Race #7

#1 Calm Sea	He's a forward player with a solid pressing gear, so he might be able to find a trip from the fence while on or near the lead throughout. Tactical kind of one-paced effort might play well today.
#4 Salesman	Anything like his November run at Santa Anita would likely do the trick with these, but there are a few others in here with similar forward styles who might keep enough heat on him so he doesn't get loose again -- and the rest of his form isn't that exciting.
#5 Dual Threat	Not totally sure how the finishing form is going to translate to this marathon trip, but he might be able to get past a couple of the tiring ones late.
Race Summary	Calm Sea should be in a good spot the whole way, and I'm hoping a couple others in here will command cash and leave him at a mildly playable price.

Del Mar - Race #8

#3 Nation	He was well bet in the debut at Keeneland last year, and he ran well from off the pace there. That felt like a pretty solid first baseline to set, and it would make him a real handful here if he has come forward at all into his 4-year-old season.
#10 Oscar Joy	Think there are a few capable players lined up today, but this guy has some obvious upside while stretching out in the second career start. Feels like maybe an underlay.
#2 Mongolian Max	Would want him on a couple of the deeper stretch plays, as the only turf run on his page wasn't horrible despite a couple trouble points, and he might be able to outrun his huge price today.
Race Summary	Nation should hit hard here with a good Keeneland debut on his page, but the main move here is trying get Mongolian Mix in the picture at a big price with one of the other logical players. Would consider #13 Crazy Cavalier, #8 Glandford, #4 Quality Wins, and #6 American Glory those other logical players.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-25-2024, 07:40 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Penn National - Race #2

#1 CAERUS (5-2)	Money burner returns to scene of two photo-finish setbacks going long on the dirt.
#3 DESANTIS (5-2)	Backed up for $10k, still a speed threat for high-percentage barn off re-claim.
#6 MUSICAL HEART (2-1)	Gets in light for second start in four months since claim, 1-13 at one mile.
Race Summary	CAERUS returns to his favorite track after trying the turf at Laurel Park. He had two near misses and a third at Penn National to start the year at this level. He gets Rodriguez and gets one more chance to upstage a 1-22 mark since 2023. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #3

#1 WORK FROM HOME (4-1)	Check-getter for $25k, can stalk and pounce in bid to end 0-12 drought.
#2 RUM TUM TUGGER (5-2)	Late crowding near gap proved costly in another photo-finish setback.
#5 STANDPOINT (8-1)	Useful return after six-month layoff, gets second-time Lasix.
Race Summary	WORK FROM HOME, competitive for $25,000 on the lawn, should appreciate the cutback to one mile and should sit an ideal stalking trip from the rail. He’s running out of chances but should offer enough value for a win and place bet. Also play a 1-2-5 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #7

#4 SPORTING THE GOLD (5-2)	Can maximize his speed and turn recent seconds into a victory.
#6 WARRIOR’S WAY OUT (7-	In top form, packs late kick, hit board in 7 of 10 at this distance.
#1 BELLS RUN (4-1)	Sustained 4-wide rally to beat Pennsylvania breds, draws rail.
Race Summary	SPORTING THE GOLD couldn’t fend off the favorite and ran second for the third consecutive start. But he battled gamely for his new connections and can upgrade to a victory at the same level as the controlling speed. Let’s make him today’s Best Bet with a win and place wager.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-25-2024, 07:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 2	Pick 6 / Exacta / Daily Double 2-3
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 52 • Purse: $8,100 • Post: 3:10P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. 1# A DEBTS. EN PR ALLOWED 1 LBS. 2# A CLASFS.$20,000 ALLOWED 2 LBS. 4# A CLASFS. INFERIOR Y DEBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Class. IDLE UNION is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * IDLE UNION: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed F igure at the distance/surface.
4	IDLE UNION	4/1	4/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	IDLE UNION	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	65	52.9	69.7	67.7
5	MR. ZORRO	5	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	34	27	30.3	25.9	20.4
2	LT. COMMANDER	2	2/1	Alternator/Non-contender	34	31	38.4	25.8	20.3
1	KIM'S FINALE	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	19.8	19.8	11.8
3	QUE CLASE DE VINO	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	25	16	12.3	12.3	3.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-25-2024, 07:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park
PURCHASE

Canterbury Park - Race 8	Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $2 Daily Double
Stakes • 400 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 8:36P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, CANTERBURY PARK DISTAFF CHALLENGE S. - GRADE 3 FOR QUARTER HORSES, FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH ARE AQHA RACING CHALLENGE ENROLLED, NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. $400 TO NOMINATE BY WEDNESDAY, MAY 1 AND $800 SUSTAINING PAYMENT DUE BY SATURDAY, JUNE 1. LATE PAYMENT SCHEDULE: $2,500 TO NOMINATE AND SUSTAIN BY SATURDAY, JUNE 1 (ALL PAYMENTS MUST BE MADE THROUGH THE AQHA). $35,904 (INCLUDES $10,000 FROM THE AQHA RACING CHALLENGE). PURSE TO BE PAID IN ACCORDANCE WITH AQHA RACING CHALLENGE RULES. WEIGHTS: THREE YEAR OLDS - 125 LBS.;OLDER - 127 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. THE CANTERBURY PARK DISTAFF CHALLENGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE (10) FASTEST QUALIFIERS. MANAGEMENT RESERVES THE RIGHT TO RUN 12 HORSES IN THE FINAL, WITH NO TRIALS, IFF 12 HORSES OR FEWER ENTER INTO THE TRIALS, PAYING PURSE MONIES ONLY TO THE TOP 10 FINISHERS. REMINDER: YOU MUST BE AN AQHA MEMBER TO COMPETE IN ANY CHALLENGE RACE. MORE INFORMATION: CONTACT THE AQ

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FOX NEWS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AJ FAST CORONA: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BEEP BEEP REV REV: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style design ation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast.
3	FOX NEWS	8/5	2/1
2	AJ FAST CORONA	2/1	6/1
1	BEEP BEEP REV REV	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BEEP BEEP REV REV	1	3/1	Fast	82	75	2.8	0.0	0.0
2	AJ FAST CORONA	2	2/1	Average	83	83	4.2	0.0	0.0
3	FOX NEWS	3	8/5	Average	96	90	4.1	0.0	0.0
4	CORONA A SAINT	4	15/1	Slow	78	71	6.8	0.0	0.0
5	FIVE BAR FANTASY	5	4/1	Average	82	77	4.7	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-25-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $54200 Class Rating: 98

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $23,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SOUPER SUCCESS 5/2
# 2 SPITE STORE 8/1
# 6 DETERMINED FURY 3/1

I've got to go with SOUPER SUCCESS. Looks solid for the conditions of this affair today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races as of late. This gelding with Civaci in the irons makes him a solid choice. Should best this field here, showing quite good figs of late. SPITE STORE - The speed figure of 96 from his last race looks competitive in here. DETERMINED FURY - Ran a strong last race. Has to be considered versus this group of horses displaying solid numbers as of late and an average speed rating of 87 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-25-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #5 - Post: 7:41pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#5 DON'T QUESTION ME (ML=7/2)

DON'T QUESTION ME - Aguilar and Albright perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +29 return on investment for a rider and trainer. Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Penn National last out. That affair had a class figure of 73 and he is moving down in this race. A certain strong challenger. Albright brings him back again. I advise you stick with this hot gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SUGAR'S LAST HOPE (ML=2/1), #4 HE'S ON FIRE (ML=5/2), #6 BOOK MARKER (ML=9/2),

SUGAR'S LAST HOPE - Where is the pace? None to be found in here to set things up for this mount. HE'S ON FIRE - You think this animal is going to finish first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish on top frequently. Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put him on the likely underlays list. BOOK MARKER - Would have to move up off that fifth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 DON'T QUESTION ME is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-25-2024, 07:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Colonial Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - SO - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 99

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 FREEDOM ROAD 6/5
# 4 GOLDEN CANDY 9/5
# 6 IRISH WARLOCK 6/1

I think FREEDOM ROAD is a decent choice. He should be given consideration given the solid speed figs. This gelding looks good for this event since Sillaman has a strong winning percentage with horses going this distance. Has been close up at the finish line most every time recently. GOLDEN CANDY - Has a very strong shot in this race if you like back class. Has very good speed figures and has to be considered for a wager in this race. IRISH WARLOCK - Garnered a strong speed rating last time out. Singh has a very strong winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-25-2024, 07:42 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:46pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#3 KISSTER (ML=6/1)
#7 BABY JANE (ML=5/2)

KISSTER - Was in a $20,000 Maiden Claiming race at Evangeline Downs last time around the track. That race had a class figure of 73 and she is moving down in this event. A certain solid contender. Two starts back coming off a brief layoff at Evangeline Downs the animal looked good, but turned in a clunker the next time. This time I like the ability to bounce back off that dull effort with another nice event. BABY JANE - Ranks number one in the field in earnings per race entered. A strong performance right here will add to that total. After the event aboard this equine on July 5th, the jockey is going to be in tune with the filly much better. Has a pretty good chance to break maiden moving to the main track in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 GROUND CONTROL (ML=2/1), #2 GIRL LIKES BLING (ML=9/2), #5 LITTLEBITOFAQUEEN (ML=5/1),

GROUND CONTROL - 2/1 is not offering enough value for any racer in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint event of late. I think this morning-line choice needs this race under her belt to start getting back into shape. GIRL LIKES BLING - Difficult to put any money on this filly on the front end. Likes to finish in the money though. LITTLEBITOFAQUEEN - Last raced on Jul 16th at Louisiana Downs, finishing fifth. Unlikely to perk up off of that try in today's event. Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this group off of that last fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 KISSTER to win at post-time odds of 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Thursday 7/25/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 7/25/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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