Sunday 7/28/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-28-2024, 09:13 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 28, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a 15-race card and the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Burnout (5/2)-Has hit the board in 2 of 4 races at Nfld and ships in after facing tougher at Oak Grove. Should have control of the mile when the wings fold and could be difficult to tackle. Billy Davis Jr should get the jump on the main players.
6-Bonniprinclouis N (7-1)-New Zealand bred has big speed and had a sharp win in its US at debut at the Meadows. Beaten odds on chalk tries Lasix for the 1st time and top call pilot for the Burke barn Ronnie Wren steers. Best to respect.
8-Saulsbrook Genesis (7/2)-The 8-hole makes this a much bigger challenge and helps the price. When this Burke veteran is dialed on high can grind his way around and win, even from the outside. Can't leave off the ticket, has posted a win at this class recently and not everyone in the field can say the same.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

2-No More Sweets (3-1)-Aaron Merriman steers for the 4th straight race and finished 2nd in those 3 starts. The previous 3 winners are not in this field and those races were against this kind.
3-Bold Strategy (4-1)-Beat cheaper in the 2nd start after a short rest in a nice effort on 7-17. Has a win versus Open Handicap company back in May and should be a player at this level.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

4-Back In My Day (9/2)-Came 3rd to better off a rough trip. Fits well here but doesn't have big gate speed. Kurt Sugg needs to provide a sharp steer and not be far back early. Should offer a square price, has the speed and the class to beat this group if the pilot does his part.
7-Night Shadow (7/2)-Does have the gate speed to get a close-up seat. Wrenn has done well in the past with the Burke trainee. Will fade the chalk on the rail, trust the connections and look for more value. The 5-year-old could beat his stablemate and will stick with Wrenn's pick.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

5-Kneedeep N Custard (2-1)-The Bendis trainee was no match for last week's winner. But came off a sick scratch, missed 3 weeks and still finished 2nd versus this kind. Draws well, comes back in sequence and Merriman could go gate to wire.
6-Bet On Zette (5-1)-Lightly raced 5-year-old ships in from the Meadows and could have enough gate speed to land in the pocket behind the one above. This class will be a test but if Custard doesn't finish off the mile this could be a trip out candidate.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,6,8/2,3/4,7/5,6
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-28-2024, 09:13 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #7

#9 Vodka Vodka	He has landed a couple shares since getting over to the turf and has a little positional pace in a race where nearly all of them want to finish from somewhere near the back. Tactical edge gets him home.
#4 Glorious Life	He got past a few of them late in a modest debut run, but there is probably some upside today in the second start while perhaps sitting a more tactical trip while stretching out.
#11 Vols	Price player may be worth a small look underneath with a couple shares against similar on his page, and he has been within shouting distance of the top choice in the past.
Race Summary	Vodka Vodka has a pace edge on a lot of these that might give him the edge today, and he should still offer a moderately playable price against this crew.

Del Mar - Race #9

#3 Gold Phoenix	He won this race last year and has done some serious work over the local course, and there's a chance he offers another somewhat attractive price. Ready to turn the tables on the likely chalk.
#9 Johannes	Tough to argue with his overall form and consistency, but I think he's meeting at least an equally tough crew to the one he met last time out, and the price will probably get short enough that it leaves a couple others looking more appealing on the tote.
#2 Master Piece	His form has always been hit or miss, but he has done some good work over the turf here and has at least been hinting at signs of his better baseline runs in those recent tries.
Race Summary	Gold Phoenix and Johannes seem tough to get past in here, but I think the former should offer a better price and has a lot of serious proven form over this turf.

Del Mar - Race #11

#5 Shes Just Fluffy	Forward player stacked up well on the hike last time out and now tries two turns on the turf in this second start for the new team. Overlooked with a chance.
#2 Runamileinmyshoes	Reliable player broke through in a big way with that easy score last time around, and she should get another good run of things while right up on the pace.
#9 Moment's Pleasure	Her baseline stuff obviously keeps her in the mix, but she was short with similar at 6/5 last out and figures to take some more cash today. Tough call, but the likely price leads me elsewhere.
Race Summary	Shes Just Fluffy gets on the grass for the first time, but I think her main-track sprint form has enough appeal to think she might carry it here OK.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-28-2024, 09:15 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar
PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race 9	$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 cent Trifecta $2 Rolling Double / 50 cent min. Pick Three $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / $2 WPS Parlay
Stakes • 1 1/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 117 • Purse: $250,000 • Post: 6:08P
EDDIE READ S. - GRADE 2 (RAIL AT 12 FEET). FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $250 EACH, WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION CLOSED THURSDAY JULY 18,2024 WITH 11 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $2,500 EACH BY THE CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES, AND $3,750 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $250,000 GUARANTEED, OF WHICH $150,000 TO FIRST, $50,000 TO SECOND, $30,000 TO THIRD, $15,000 TO FOURTH AND $5,000 TO FIFTH. THREE-YEAR-OLDS 120 LBS.; OLDER 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A GRADE I AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS.; OF A GRADE II AT ONE MILE OR OVER IN 2024 OR A GRADE I AT ONE MILE OR OVER IN 2023, 4 LBS. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED. TOTAL EARNINGS IN NON-CLAIMING RACES IN 2024 WILL BE USED IN DETERMINING THE PREFERENCE OF HORSES WITH EQUAL WEIGHTS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. BALLADEER is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BALLADEER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. DU JOUR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JOHANNES: H orse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. GOLD PHOENIX (IRE): Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MASTER PIECE (CHI): Horse has the highest a verage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	BALLADEER	20/1	6/1
7	DU JOUR	5/2	7/1
9	JOHANNES	2/1	7/1
3	GOLD PHOENIX (IRE)	6/1	7/1
2	MASTER PIECE (CHI)	8/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	BALLADEER	8	20/1	Front-runner	110	108	112.8	104.6	95.1
2	MASTER PIECE (CHI)	2	8/1	Trailer	113	109	99.8	107.4	101.9
9	JOHANNES	9	2/1	Trailer	113	113	99.2	107.6	101.1
7	DU JOUR	7	5/2	Trailer	114	111	98.2	110.6	106.6
4	EASTER (FR)	4	4/1	Trailer	114	108	90.8	110.0	98.0
3	GOLD PHOENIX (IRE)	3	6/1	Trailer	117	112	90.8	107.4	99.9
5	BALNIKHOV (IRE)	5	12/1	Trailer	115	106	85.2	106.0	96.0
1	THERE GOES HARVARD	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	113	108	94.2	93.7	79.7
6	DICEY MO CHARA (GB)	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	108	105	84.6	102.2	85.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-28-2024, 09:15 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four
PURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race 4	Leg D of the Cross Country Pick 5
Claiming $14,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 5:10P
SAR - R8 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * BLUE PLATE SPECIAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PINEAPPLE MAN: Hors e ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. DEVIL'S CAY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. AGILITY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the dist ance/surface. SCARAMANGA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
7	BLUE PLATE SPECIAL	6/1	5/1
9	PINEAPPLE MAN	6/1	5/1
2	DEVIL'S CAY	7/2	7/1
3	AGILITY	6/1	9/1
8	SCARAMANGA	15/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	FOR SOME REASON	4	4/1	Front-runner	71	70	82.6	71.8	58.3
5	QUICK HAMMER	5	5/1	Front-runner	82	78	82.2	70.0	58.5
8	SCARAMANGA	8	15/1	Front-runner	91	80	78.8	71.6	58.6
3	AGILITY	3	6/1	Front-runner	83	78	77.8	73.0	65.5
2	DEVIL'S CAY	2	7/2	Front-runner	94	85	74.6	76.6	69.6
1	SINFUL DANCER	1	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	78	64.6	70.4	56.4
7	BLUE PLATE SPECIAL	7	6/1	Trailer	88	92	50.6	81.6	76.6
10	SOUTH STREET	10	8/1	Trailer	83	82	34.6	74.0	61.0
9	PINEAPPLE MAN	9	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	95	84	61.2	76.8	69.8
6	MUDVILLE NINE	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	76	55.0	70.8	55.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-28-2024, 09:15 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Sacramento - Race #5 - Post: 6:53pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#4 WRONG DIRECTION (ML=3/1)
#2 CROWN MAGIC (ML=2/1)
#3 IT AINT OVER (ML=5/1)

WRONG DIRECTION - Sneaky speed on this one. He'll probably be stalking ponies on the back side, then crush them down the stretch. This rider/trainer duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +240. Rodriguez drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more handicapping info to think this one will be tough to beat at this level. CROWN MAGIC - Specht brings him right back. I propose you stay with this strong gelding. This gelding looks like a natural router, based on efforts in last 2 sprint races. Was in a Starter Allowance race at Pleasanton last out. That clash had an Equibase class figure of 91 and he is moving down in this race. A certain win candidate. This gelding is clearly on the improve with speed ratings of 53, 82, 85 last 3 out. This trainer is 'stretching-out' this thoroughbred. Making the move to 1 mile for the 1st time, and Specht has had some great success doing that. IT AINT OVER - Rivera was aboard this gelding last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. I like the way this gelding's finish positions have gotten better with each start recently. A sign of a campaigner coming into top form. I like to invest in this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a good effort within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ZEN STATE (ML=7/2), #5 BROTHER O' BRIEN (ML=6/1), #1 DR. ONE (ML=8/1),

ZEN STATE - Tough to like the downward flow (67/60/56) of speed figures. BROTHER O' BRIEN - Not likely that the speed rating he garnered on June 28th will be good enough in this contest. DR. ONE - Didn't do a whole lot last time out. Probably won't do much running in today's race. Finished seventh in his most recent race with a common speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 WRONG DIRECTION to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-28-2024, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grand Prairie

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming Stakes Trial - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 74

MARATHON SERIES S. - THOROUGHBRED CLAIMING STAKES FOR THREE YEARS OLD & UPWARD. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. HORSES MUST HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $6,250 OR LESS IN 2023 / 24 OR HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED TWICE ON A CLASS B TRACK IN 2023 / 24. PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED TWICE ON A CLASS B TRACK IN ALBERTA FOR 2023 / 24. ENTRY FEE OF $150 DUE AT TIME OF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 THE HYBRID 5/1
# 4 ANELLO 3/1
# 3 UPO 2/1

THE HYBRID is the best bet in this race. Might see a different pony here with the blinkers change. Has been running quite well lately and will almost certainly be close to the front end early on. With a respectable 59 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. ANELLO - Will likely be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the halfway point of the contest. UPO - Displays sound speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses in this race. The Lasix change (now going off Lasix) may spark a turnaround for this gelding.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-28-2024, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $11900 Class Rating: 70

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE AT 870 YARDS OR FURTHER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 127 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000, IF FOR $12,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. IOWA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 WB DASHING BRAT 6/1
# 6 KANDOIT 8/1
# 2 RC JONES 11 7/2

WB DASHING BRAT is my choice. Looks very strong for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figs in longer quarter horse races recently. Recent numbers for the jockey - 22 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of horses in this race. With Garcia controlling the reins on him, this gelding ought to be able to break out sharply in this contest. KANDOIT - Should wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. Has decent Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. RC JONES 11 - Covarrubias has her trained very well to break speedily out of the starting gate. With a decent 52 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this competition.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-28-2024, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #10 - Post: 5:04pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#2 RIGHT QUICK (ML=8/1)
#6 CORONATION TIME (ML=3/1)
#5 A B C YA (ML=5/2)

RIGHT QUICK - Taking a drop in Equibase class figure points from his July 6th race at Laurel. Based on that data, I will give this animal the edge. CORONATION TIME - Trainer Smith moves this horse down the class scale to face a weaker level today. Look for a nice race this time out. A B C YA - He finished 2nd July 13th, but was well clear of the third horse. This pony coming off a nice effort in the last month is a win candidate in my humble opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BAJAN BOY (ML=7/5), #1 UNDER THE OVERPASS (ML=8/1),

BAJAN BOY - Not easy to play any animal in a sprint event at 7/5 when he hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last couple of months. UNDER THE OVERPASS - Tough to take this steed at these odds after the finish (fourth) in the last race. Tough to put any cash on this gelding on the top end. Likes to end up on the board though.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 RIGHT QUICK to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6] Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip