Monday 7/29/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2024, 07:40 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 29, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway begins the week with a 12-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 goes in Race 5 and has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Desperate Man (3/2)-Ships back after a rough trip from post 8 at Saratoga versus tough customers. Has won 11 of 14 at Yonkers and is clearly the one to beat. Could make very call a winning one but is versatile and doesn't need to lead every step of the way to win.
4-Covered Bridge (5-1)-This is my only choice to take down Desperate Man and could do so if Stratton times the gate and lands on the point. This pilot knows how to get the most out of the Gillis trainee and the price should be right to use.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

2-Cadillac Bayama (5/2)-Sat the pocket behind Fortify with George Brennan on 7-22, was trapped inside and finished 3rd. Most of this group has not recently won at this condition. But the Team Lachance veteran did on 6-10 and with a clean trip should take another picture.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

1-Pound For Pound (2-1)-Raced better than the line looked versus a well-rated, strong winner and now drops to a soft spot. Should be out and rolling. Can take charge and control the mile. Appears to be a smooth trip away from the winner's circle and could be bet hard. The new connections may finally cash the top check.

Race 12 (10:40 PM EST)

2-What Stanley Got A (9/5)-Tried to wire Invitational company in last and finished 2nd. Drops and that could make a winning difference. Should be racing at the top of the stack throughout but can't completely trust.
3-None Bettor A (9/2)-The 11-year-old can still dial it up at its favorite track (70-22-10-9). Left from post 7 last time, put in a no-move mile and then skipped a start. Has good early speed if brings a top try, fits, and has the speed to be put in play early on.
5-Himself N (9/2)-Can offer a good price and will be tested at this level. Using because the fractions should be lively and this race could set up for a closer. Tyler Buter could work a stalking trip, and be the strongest down the lane.

$2.00 Late Pick 4

2,4/2/1/2,3,5
Total bet=$12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2024, 07:41 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#3 All American Rose	She has some room to improve at second asking if she can get a cleaner run today, and she has worked over the synthetic at Turfway, so she might like the new footing today.
#4 U Ain't That Lucky	She has some pace that it looks like she'll need to use to find her best stuff, as she chased and gave way last out after an encouraging debut effort on the engine. Capable underlay?
#2 Botita	Liked her a bit last time around on the rise, and she didn't miss by a whole lot that day. Price gets shorter this time around, but she's a forward threat again today if she holds that form.
Race Summary	All American Rose ran on with a little enthusiasm after some trouble in the Belterra debut, and I'm hoping that line will keep the price playable today with plenty of upside.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#1 Anoint	She has some tables to turn here in a spot where she looks a little light on class, but she was only a length off some of these last out on the Penn turf, and she looks likely to get a good setup to save ground and launch one late rally.
#8 On the Shortlist	Her better stuff makes her one of the obvious ones, but I'm a little worried about the price in an evenly matched race where I think you can make a case for a lot of them.
#2 Rosie's Alibi	She has a few races on her page that might keep her in the picture today, and I like the way her form starts to look when you isolate her tries on this circuit and forgive her for some runs at Saratoga, Gulfstream, etc.
Race Summary	Enough to like about Anoint, who draws perfectly to find a comfortable rhythm near the back and watch everything unfold. Hoping a few tactical players till force the issue. Not sure what to do with #6 Foxy Junior in her first start here on the rise while looking for her fourth in a row.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#9 Not Today Governor	Not sure who you're supposed to be excited about in here, and maybe this one moves up while getting blinkers today. Chasing pace forces a first-over trip from outside?
#6 Exclusive Entry	He could drill these with his pace on the drop, but he is certainly not known for finding a whole lot in the last 100 yards of his races. Could be gone by the top of the lane.
#2 Fast Learner	He wouldn't be a real surprise, but he's kind of a one-paced grinder who stays on late but doesn't really push past anyone, and that makes him more logical underneath again today. On the plays if you love a price somewhere else.
Race Summary	Not Today Governor isn't all that reliable late, but he hinted at something a little bit better last out and now gets blinkers. Hoping he'll press the chalk the whole way.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2024, 07:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs
PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 1	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 1-2-3) Pick 5 (min .50 cent) (Races 1-5)
Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 3:00P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * AZTEC PRINCESS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. VINOS ANGEL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DOMINANT STRANGER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	AZTEC PRINCESS	9/2	3/1
3	VINOS ANGEL	8/5	5/1
1	DOMINANT STRANGER	4/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	REAL GOOD VYBZ	4	8/1	Stalker	68	58	48.1	38.0	28.0
6	MILLE DREAMS (FR)	6	5/2	Stalker	74	66	44.7	62.9	58.9
3	VINOS ANGEL	3	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	69	69	75.0	65.8	60.8
2	AZTEC PRINCESS	2	9/2	Trailer	84	76	71.4	77.4	71.4
1	DOMINANT STRANGER	1	4/1	Trailer	70	67	67.2	69.6	62.6
5	SIGN AND SEAL	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	74	79.6	57.0	47.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2024, 07:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 2	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $29,700 • Post: 1:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OPTIONAL OR OHIO BRED. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MAY 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * AFJAN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equ ibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MUGSY MALONE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RANDELLO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MISTER MOBIL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	AFJAN	5/2	5/1
4	MUGSY MALONE	7/2	5/1
1	RANDELLO	8/1	6/1
7	MISTER MOBIL	5/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	MUGSY MALONE	4	7/2	Front-runner	98	76	82.6	81.6	74.6
2	AFJAN	2	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	88	82	80.0	77.0	75.0
7	MISTER MOBIL	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	77	75.5	75.8	66.3
1	RANDELLO	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	82	60.2	81.8	73.3
6	SAMMY'S SMILE	6	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	79	60.2	74.6	66.1
3	MY BROTHER CAM	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	91	76	73.6	73.2	65.2
5	NEED TO KNOW BASIS	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	79	64.4	75.8	63.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2024, 07:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $35360 Class Rating: 79

IND - R6 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 TIDAL TACTICS 9/2
# 2 MOLLY'S ROSE 8/1
# 4 MS. LILIBET 4/5

TIDAL TACTICS gets the edge as the wager in here. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. Had one of the strongest Speed Figures of this group of animals in her last affair. Is hard not to consider given the company run in lately. MOLLY'S ROSE - Make a note that this horse runs with second time Lasix today. Is a very solid contender based on numbers recorded recently under today's conditions. MS. LILIBET - She has garnered strong figures under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group. This equine is highly ranked this group of horses in this race in earnings per start at the distance/surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2024, 07:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Ellis Park - Race #6 - Post: 2:26pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $71,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#7 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED (ML=9/2)
#2 QUINN'S PROMISE (ML=15/1)

TOTALLY JUSTIFIED - As long as Gaffalione keeps this pony off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a winner. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is up against an easier group than last out at Churchill Downs. Finished fourth at Churchill Downs last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 9/2 right here, she looks like a possible contender. QUINN'S PROMISE - Rider hops up aloft after getting to know the magnificent animal by riding last time around the track. That's always a good sign. This filly surprised everybody by finishing third July 4th. She has the highest earnings per race entered. Take a good look at this animal.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 HEREFORAGOODTIME (ML=4/1), #3 PEANUT GALLERY (ML=5/1), #6 MAD ABOUT MARIE (ML=6/1),

HEREFORAGOODTIME - Run-of-the-mill fig last out at Churchill Downs at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't feel this steed will improve too much in today's race. PEANUT GALLERY - This filly in all probability won't be really close near the finish line. MAD ABOUT MARIE - Registered a pedestrian speed fig last time out in a Maiden Special race on June 28th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	7 with 2 with [1,6,8] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	[2,7] with [2,7] with [1,5,6,8] with [1,5,6,8] with [1,5,6,8] Total Cost: $48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2024, 07:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $73000 Class Rating: 94

ELP - R9 - FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE MAY 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 BIG TROUBLE 5/2
# 8 PENDULUM 7/2
# 12 AGRA 5/2

BIG TROUBLE is the most competitive wager in this race. May best this group of horses in this race here, showing solid figs of late. Is a contender - given the 95 speed fig from her most recent race. Must be given consideration given the class of races run recently. PENDULUM - Have to look at solely on class, with some of the most favorable class figures of this field. Has performed admirably lately in route races, posting a nifty 82 avg Equibase Speed Fig. AGRA - Has to be given a chance versus this field displaying strong figs lately and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 87 under similar conditions. There is a respectable possibility of an increase in speed as this filly changes blinkers (off) for the first time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2024, 07:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:15pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,900 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#4 ALTMEISTER (ML=8/1)
#2 JONES FALLS (ML=6/1)
#3 RESVALON (ML=10/1)

ALTMEISTER - Atop this horse on July 3rd and Bracho is yet again in the irons in today's contest. JONES FALLS - This entrant could be tough this time around, especially since Aviles rode last out and now should be acquainted with this one. Always watch out for the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. This thoroughbred coming off a nice performance in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my opinion. RESVALON - Barbaran and Ccamaque perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +304 ROI for a jockey and conditioner. Finished outside the top 3 last out at Mountaineer Park, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 10/1 makes me think he's got a chance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CONRAD THE RED (ML=7/5), #5 HIALEAH NATIVE (ML=5/1), #6 STORMY FIRE (ML=8/1),

CONRAD THE RED - Didn't come through as the public's choice twice in a row. Probably won't gain a winning effort today either. I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last two to three weeks. This gelding is always around, but just doesn't win. Difficult to wager on him on the front end. HIALEAH NATIVE - Last raced on June 27th at Charles Town, finishing sixth. Not likely to get better off of that effort in today's event. Recorded a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last out in a $5,000 Claiming race on Jun 27th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig. STORMY FIRE - This questionable contender ran a pedestrian speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't run better and will likely lose today running that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 ALTMEISTER to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,3,4] with [2,3,4] with [2,3,4,5,9] with [2,3,4,5,9] Total Cost: $36