Tuesday 7/30/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#3 Mitole Magic	She graduated for a $30,000 tag, so this ends up being a reasonable spot for the conditioned try after coming up midpack against allowance company. Solid lean in a top-heavy race.
#6 Cloud in the Wind	Positional pace has proven a good fit at this level, so she wouldn't be a surprise, but I think the top choice might leave her in an underneath spot again -- still, she's also the most reasonable alternative.
#8 Italian Ivy	She was no threat with better but is another who makes a lot more sense while getting in for the conditioned tag. Her $15,000 debut score was decent enough, and this spot is a better fit for her right now.
Race Summary	Mitole Magic and Cloud in the Wind look tough to get past, but I think the former is going to get the job done after just failing to punch home against better groups in those last couple starts.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#8 Streamsong	Think he has a little bit of price appeal if he's able to avoid being too wide the entire way, as he was well beaten last time out, but so was everyone who chased a runaway winner. That distant fifth-place finish might not do much for players despite the fact that it left him only a couple lengths out of the exacta.
#7 Fred George	He just finished ahead of some of these in that same common race as the top choice, and he's supposed to win this with his better stuff. Short price again for the believers as he makes his third start at this level.
#1 Selassie	Think he's probably just too cheap in here, but there is at least a little chance that a couple of the forward players will keep the pace honest enough to advantage him if he can save ground and come with one run late.
Race Summary	Streamsong didn't really get involved behind an easy winner last out, but he wasn't too far off the rest, and all their respective prices probably aren't going to reflect that.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#2 Patriot Drive	He has typically been in the frame with this kind of company, and he could be sitting on a peak try in this third start back after producing a competitive effort last out. One of the ones.
#6 Haig Point	Tough call for me today. I think his baseline is supposed to win this, but the price is going to be short on a guy who hasn't won a race in a long time. Obvious threat on form and consistency, but I could see him settling for another share.
#3 Leave 'Em Loaded	He tailed off late last season and hasn't shown much in a couple starts yet this year, but he goes third off the break with a chance to sit right up prompting a couple more committed pace players. I liked him enough last year to hope he can come alive to something like that at a big number today.
Race Summary	Love these kinds of races as the meet goes on and they knock heads over the course of the summer. Patriot Drive has been a cozy fit with this kind and might be sitting on a big enough race to win this. Think #10 Legio belongs on some of the deeper/stretch tickets, too.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $12,200 • Post: 3:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JULY 30, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 30 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. K P SILVER BULLET is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * K P SILVER BULLET: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MARLEY LUC K: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AWESOME ENOUGH: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	K P SILVER BULLET	5/2	3/1
6	MARLEY LUCK	5/1	6/1
2	AWESOME ENOUGH	9/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	MARLEY LUCK	6	5/1	Front-runner	82	69	72.2	68.0	64.0
2	AWESOME ENOUGH	2	9/2	Front-runner	79	70	54.0	70.6	63.1
4	FISHING FOR FUN	4	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	76	68	61.7	63.0	54.0
7	PRACTICAL MAN	7	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	79	59.2	62.5	51.5
5	K P SILVER BULLET	5	5/2	Trailer	90	79	52.4	76.4	73.9
1	UNCAPTURED LYON	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	66	66.6	59.2	46.7
3	BROADWAY JONES	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	67	60.6	61.8	53.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 2	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4), 20 Cent Guaranteed $10,000 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $15,750 • Post: 4:58P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,750, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY)(WAIVER CLAIMING EXEMPT)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * STRIKE THE POSE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten day s. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CARELESS HEIRESS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. KATCHY NAME: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. LOVE MY CHERYL: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today i s a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
6	STRIKE THE POSE	9/5	4/1
3	CARELESS HEIRESS	10/1	7/1
5	KATCHY NAME	3/1	7/1
2	LOVE MY CHERYL	5/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CARELESS HEIRESS	3	10/1	Front-runner	81	75	70.6	28.3	18.3
5	KATCHY NAME	5	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	66	60	71.2	59.4	55.9
6	STRIKE THE POSE	6	9/5	Stalker	69	74	65.4	63.0	60.5
2	LOVE MY CHERYL	2	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	71	64	67.2	48.2	41.7
4	ROAD MAP	4	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	69	57.4	59.0	49.0
1	SWEET FINALE	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	61	36.0	50.2	41.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 61

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 KALL KAT 4/1
# 7 JAMAICAN TRAFFIC 3/1
# 3 ELENA MAE 7/2

KALL KAT supports the bet in here. Could provide positive dividends based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 61. Has to be considered - I like the figures from the last race. With a nice Equibase class figure average of 73, has one of the most competitive class advantages in this group of horses. JAMAICAN TRAFFIC - She has been running soundly recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Win percentage with this rider and trainer combo - 15 percent - strong. ELENA MAE - This pony has a excellent winning percentage in dirt sprints. With a very strong 55 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Allowance - 7.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 78

FOR MB/SASK/ND/SD BREDS COLTS AND GELDINGS THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 MCKAGUE 6/5
# 4 KENTUCKY JAKE 8/1
# 3 DELVECCHIO 5/2

I favor MCKAGUE here. Could provide positive profits based on competitive recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 84. Like the finishing positions in the last few races. Could best this group based on the speed rating - 78 - of his last race. KENTUCKY JAKE - Recorded a solid Equibase Speed Fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. With a sound jock who has won at a very good 23 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top selections. DELVECCHIO - Will probably come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the front end recently. Ran a sharp last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Presque Isle Downs - Race #6 - Post: 5:15pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#5 WROTE IN STONE (ML=5/2)
#2 SAMURAI LEGACY (ML=6/1)
#8 THALBERG (ML=6/1)
#6 HE'S A GOOD DANCER (ML=8/1)


WROTE IN STONE - Utilizing this jock/conditioner combination is a good move. Fennessy brings him right back. I suggest you stay with this hot gelding. Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Presque Isle Downs. Could add another win in this race. SAMURAI LEGACY - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +130. I believe Markgraf is making a good move here. This gelding can only benefit from the shorter distance. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. THALBERG - This horse could be a potential overlay in this event at M/L odds of 6/1. Finished fifth in last race at Presque Isle Downs but was close at the finish. HE'S A GOOD DANCER - Trainer Rice moves this one down in class to face a lower class of horses. Look for a nice race in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 GUACO (ML=3/1), #4 HEY PADRE (ML=9/2),

GUACO - Doesn't look to be worth 3/1 this time out. Pass on him this time. HEY PADRE - Not easy to invest in this mount this time. Make him show you something in a sprint affair before you play him in a race of 6 furlongs.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 SAMURAI LEGACY on top if we're getting at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Louisiana Downs - Race #5 - Post: 5:45pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,500 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#5 JACK BOB AND LARRY (ML=10/1)
#2 HEZA PRIORITY (ML=7/2)
#1 FORTY THREE (ML=6/1)


JACK BOB AND LARRY - Gelding was in versus 'open company' on July 2nd and should find this group easier to deal with. Trainer Johnson moves this animal down the class scale to face a less competitive field. Look for a strong race at this level. HEZA PRIORITY - When Nieves and Gibson team up on horses the win percent has been tremendous at 40. Nieves is back for another contest today after getting on board this horse for the first try on Jul 17th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. I like to wager on this angle, a campaigner coming back off a strong race within the last 30 days. FORTY THREE - Ran against 'open' company last time around the track, in with state breds today. Ran last out against a higher rated class of horses at Louisiana Downs. The move down in class ranks should suit him well. Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter trip should be better for him. Have to like the way Balderas has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 CHARCO (ML=5/2), #4 CHAD'S FLASH (ML=9/2), #7 SAMURAI'S GRANDSON (ML=5/1),

CHARCO - This horse likes to finish in the money, but doesn't usually finish first. Don't play in the top spot. Not likely that the speed fig he garnered on Jun 25th will hold up in this race. CHAD'S FLASH - When scrutinizing today's class rating, he will have to record a better speed fig than last time around the track to vie in this dirt sprint. SAMURAI'S GRANDSON - Not likely for this horse to make an impact with no recent good showings in a sprint affair. Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any type of closing ability on Jul 10th.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - FORTY THREE - Analysis shows this gelding's last speed number of 72 is as good as any. Don't overlook this gelding in your investing.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #5 JACK BOB AND LARRY to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,2,5] with [1,2,5] with [1,2,5,6,8] with [1,2,5,6,8] Total Cost: $36