Wednesday 7/31/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Saratoga Scouting Report: July 31-August 4 2024

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July 29, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Key Races

Wednesday | De La Rose (f/m turf mile), Kiser Memorial (steeplechase)

Thursday | G2 Glens Falls (f/m turf route)

Friday | G2 Hall of Fame (3yo turf), G2 Saratoga Oaks Invitational (3yo f turf)

Saturday | G1 Whitney (dirt route), G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational (3yo turf), G1 Test (3yo f sprint), G2 Troy (turf sprint), Lure (turf route)

Sunday | G3 Adirondack (2f sprint), Birdstone (dirt marathon)

Horsepower

Wednesday | ’23 G2 Ballston Spa winner Evvie Jets (R8 De La Rose Stakes)

Thursday | ’23 G1 Belmont Oaks Inviational winner Aspen Grove vs. ’23 G1 American Oaks runner-up Be Your Best (R3 ALW); ’24 G3 Bewitch winner Chop Chop, ’23 G2 Flower Bowl winner Parnac, ’24 G2 Sands Point winner Eternal Hope and defending champ ’23 G2 Glens Falls winner McKulick (R9 Glens Falls Stakes).

Friday | ’24 Federico Tesio winner Perform, ’24 G3 Pimlico Special third Harlocap (R3 ALW); ’24 G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational 1-2 finishers Cinderella’s Dream and Segesta re-matched (R8 G1 Saratoga Oaks Invitational); G3 Transylvania winner Neat (R9 G2 Hall of Fame Stakes).

Saturday | Deck of Cards goes for 6th straight win (R3 starter); ’24 G2 Pennine Ridge 1-2 finishers Legend of Time & White Palamino , ’24 G3 Meld (Ire) winner Diego Velazquez, ’24 G3 Gotham winner Deterministic, ’23 G1 Summer winner Carson’s Run (R7 G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational); ’23 G1 Spinawaway 1-2 finishers Brightwork & Ways and Means, ’24 G3 Victory Ride winner Emery, ’24 G2 Beaumont winner Denim and Pearls, ’24 G2 Eight Belles winner My Mane Squeeze (R7 G1 Test Stakes); ’24 G1 Jaipur winner and world-record setter Cogburn vs. ’22 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf sprint winner Mischief Magic (R10 G2 Troy Stakes); ’23 Preakness/’24 Pegasus World Cup winner National Treasure, ’23 G2 Alysheba winner First Mission, ’23 G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Bright Future, ’24 G2 Oaklawn Handicapper winner Skippylongstocking (R10 G1 Whitney).

Sunday | ’24 Schuylerville winner The Queens MG (probable G3 Adirondack, draws Wed.)

Extra Incentives

Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites won 15 of 51 races last week (just under 30%), keeping the 3-week meet even at 29% winning chalk.

-- Top jockeys during week 3 were Flavien Prat (7 wins, 21%), Jose Ortiz (5 wins, 23%) and John Velazquez (4 wins, 31%).

-- Leading trainers from Week 3 of the meet were Mike Maker (4 wins, 25%, + ROI), Bill Mott (4 wins, 27%, +ROI), Ray Handal (3 wins, 38%, + ROI) and John Ortiz (2-for-3, $30.80 and $48.60 winners).

-- Trainer Chad Brown was just 2-11 with favorites last week. He’s now 6-23 (26%) with favs at the meet.

-- Horses last raced at Churchill Downs have 31 wins at the current meet, winning at 21% for a $1.33 ROI for every $1 bet. The ROI is a whopping $2.19 in allowance races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#1 Derby Child	Taking a swing here off a running line that might be the tiniest touch better than it looks on paper. He chased a runaway winner last time around while facing a cheaper crew, but he was only a couple lengths out of the exacta and now gets an aggressive rise for the second start of the season with a couple works in the bag since that comeback.
#7 Atrocious	You can bet he'll show up with another honest effort, but he's prone to finding one or two of them a little bit too good when he heads to post. Could easily see that happening again today. Capable.
#3 Secret Treasure	He's the more experienced version of Atrocious -- very capable of winning this with his baseline run, but pretty much out of excuses at this point. Cover him if you love a price somewhere else, because he's one of the clear choices.
Race Summary	Atrocious and Secret Treasure figure to be two of the choices in here, and neither of them seems very interested in punching home late to land one. So far Derby Child is too slow and too cheap to win this, but there are some positive signs on the rise today that make him at least a little bit interesting at what might be a big price.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#8 Hidden Class	Strong lean today as she turns back off a decent, if one-paced, local debut last out. The cutback lands her in a spot with a lot of potential pace signed on, and she might get last laugh as one of the only potential finishers on paper.
#4 Flirtini	She's known to press and stop every so often, so I'm willing to forgive her for the last one after she turned in a few nice races prior to that. Think she might be one of the best of the forward players, but I'm not sure that's the place to be either way.
#1 Googly Eyes	She was a bad fourth (and last) at 90 cents on the dollar when dropping in last out, but now she's back in an allowance spot with a two-back run on her page that might land this if she repeats it. Impossible to know which one is showing up today, but this is a positive class move off the dud last out. Race flow suits to save ground and watch it all unfold.
Race Summary	Hidden Class and Googly Eyes might be the right two to lean on from a race flow perspective, but I think Flirtini isn't out of the question if she puts away the other pace.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#3 Chaps Knight	Not much to write home about from the local debut here in May, but he didn't come back to the worktab until a couple weeks ago, so I'm willing to give him a pass for that one in hopes he's getting back to some of that Turfway form that would certainly keep him in a spot to land this.
#5 Strategyforyou	Move him up if some of the other pace scratches or Derby Child manages to flatter their common race earlier this month in Race 6. His style and form are all over the place, but his better stuff fits, and I'm going to try to lean on that July 2 race a little bit in today's choices. Two deep race.
#2 Frozen Four	He might drill these on the big drop, but he also might be a short price while bringing a couple Aqueduct races so far this year that weren't much to look at. I don't know, but I'm inclined to let him beat me.
Race Summary	Chaps Knight has a little bit of finishing ability in a race with a couple potential forward players, and he might be an appealing enough single-digit price while dropping with Turfway form that fits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 4	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $9,700 • Post: 2:05P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 31. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 30, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FRANKLY MY DEAR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. WHISKEY SIS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SUM KINDA PRETTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Pow er Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MY TOMMY LEE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	FRANKLY MY DEAR	3/1	9/2
5	WHISKEY SIS	5/2	6/1
2	SUM KINDA PRETTY	8/1	6/1
8	MY TOMMY LEE	9/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MERRY OF SOUL	1	5/1	Front-runner	67	59	54.4	49.0	39.0
3	FRANKLY MY DEAR	3	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	80	60	64.0	66.4	62.4
5	WHISKEY SIS	5	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	71	61	63.0	61.8	56.3
4	SURE ENOUGH	4	6/1	Stalker	67	51	73.0	51.0	41.0
8	MY TOMMY LEE	8	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	71	66	58.0	60.2	54.2
2	SUM KINDA PRETTY	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	72	57.4	63.2	55.7
6	HIGH MEADOWS	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	66	53.0	48.6	37.1
7	C C'S WORLD	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	51	52.8	47.6	32.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Century Mile
PURCHASE

Century Mile - Race 6	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Late Double
SO $12,500 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 8:45P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 (AB $10,000) OR LESS IN THEIR LAST FIVE STARTS AND HAVE NOT WON A STARTER SINCE STARTING FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 (AB $10,000) OR LESS. OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. FROSTEDBIRD is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * ATTENZIONE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BODEMONSTER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. COUNTRIFIED: Horse has a TrackMast er "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	ATTENZIONE	2/1	9/2
3	BODEMONSTER	5/1	5/1
7	COUNTRIFIED	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FROSTEDBIRD	1	4/1	Front-runner	80	83	62.7	70.6	60.1
3	BODEMONSTER	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	96	87	81.4	79.4	75.4
6	LONESOME CAT	6	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	84	66.0	73.0	63.5
4	ATTENZIONE	4	2/1	Trailer	97	96	65.8	84.2	80.2
2	WRONG SPOT	2	3/1	Trailer	83	84	58.4	79.4	69.9
7	COUNTRIFIED	7	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	92	87	72.4	81.0	73.5
5	ESTIFRAAD	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	77	72.1	74.3	64.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18100 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 31, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 31 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SMALL PEBBLES 3/1
# 7 MAGGIE 5/1
# 2 ISLE STORM 7/2

I've got to go with SMALL PEBBLES. Shows reliable Equibase speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. Garnered a reliable speed figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race. Has posted strong speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. MAGGIE - In this field, this one is at the top in earnings per start in dirt sprint events. She should definitely be considered given the very strong speed figs. ISLE STORM - Should come out solid - I have liked the way this mare has moved sharply to the lead recently. Should be considered here on the basis of the figures in the speed department alone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:39pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#3 MS MERRABEL (ML=8/1)
#9 CLASSY SADIE (ML=4/1)


MS MERRABEL - Trainer King moves this animal down the class ladder to face much lower class horses. Look for a strong effort this time out. Classic angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. This horse is live today. CLASSY SADIE - Mare took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Just missed hitting the board on July 3rd at Penn National. With respectable odds right here in this race, she has my interest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 HAPPY TAPPY TIM (ML=5/2), #8 KASHAN (ML=9/2), #4 SHE'S GOT GAME (ML=6/1),

HAPPY TAPPY TIM - You should normally bet against morning-line favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last few weeks. KASHAN - This pony ran a mediocre speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's event running that number. SHE'S GOT GAME - Hard to play any horse to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 MS MERRABEL to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Speed Index Race - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 72

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WITH AN AVERAGE SPEED INDEX OF 80 AND UNDER.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 JESS CAROLINAS AWARD 5/2
# 6 SNOW MAGICALLY SWEET 7/2
# 4 PHIL JEFFERSON 3/1

JESS CAROLINAS AWARD looks strong to best this field. Shows reliable speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. Lately Spada has provided players with a strong winning percentage with horses moving in short races. Has been running admirably lately and will probably be up on the front end early on. SNOW MAGICALLY SWEET - Pascoe has a strong win percent with horses racing in short races. Ought to be given a chance - I like the numbers from the last contest. PHIL JEFFERSON - Displays solid Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Louisiana Downs - Race #1 - Post: 4:05pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#5 GREY HALO (ML=6/1)
#1 SWIZZLECITY (ML=5/2)
#4 CRESSONS LIL CHARM (ML=10/1)


GREY HALO - Great chance for this racer. Big late speed and should have good position. Owns the highest Equibase speed figure on the turf at this distance. Taking a big drop in Equibase class figure points from her July 7th race at Lone Star Park. Based on that data, I will give this one the advantage. SWIZZLECITY - Wilson drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to think this horse should run well at this level. This mare is in good physical condition, having run a nice race on July 17th, finishing third. This thoroughbred has increased her Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is just want you want for a winner today. You have to be keen on that latest race speed rating, 72, which is the best most recent race speed rating of this bunch. CRESSONS LIL CHARM - The ROI when Nieves and Hibdon hook up is out of sight. Hibdon gets a break on this animal carrying 5 lbs less than last out. This should help in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MY MY (ML=3/1), #2 I DONT KNOW EITHER (ML=7/2), #3 SUPER ET (ML=8/1),

MY MY - Awfully tough to wager on this entrant when she hasn't been showing any fighting spirit of late. I DONT KNOW EITHER - Hard to bet on these non-winning types at less than generous odds. This racer likes to be in the money, but doesn't usually finish first. Keep out of the top spot. SUPER ET - Common rating last time out at Louisiana Downs at 7 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 GREY HALO to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None