Thursday 8/1/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Del Mar - Race #1

#11 Don't Tell Tammo	Get a look at her ahead of this one, but I wonder if she might be ready enough to go with a reliable series of works ahead of this debut run. There are a handful of interesting debuters in here, so check them out and trust your gut.
#8 Sophistry	There are very few running lines on the page in this race, and she owns the only good one thanks to that June Gulfstream try. Guessing she's going to find some pace company today from at least one or two of the fresh faces, but she's interesting with any reasonable upside with the ship-in bonuses on the table for this team.
#3 Naples Gal	She's another who makes some sense first time out, but I don't have a ton of strong opinions in this one after checking out the top choice.
Race Summary	Don't Tell Tammo may be coming into this OK, and she might get overlooked in a race with a few who look flashier on paper. Could see her being interesting at a midrange price.

Del Mar - Race #4

#4 Uffda	She ran OK when competitive in a couple races on the turf last year, and she just took a big step forward to graduate at Los Al in her second start back this season. I think she likes the shorter turf trip she gets today and could pop a small surprise.
#2 Excelia	Considered her on top with pretty reliable allowance form, but she does keep finding ways to settle underneath after being in good spots late. Clearly capable.
#5 Just Nails	She finished just in front of Excelia when they met in May, and her better stuff is in line with what it would take to land this one. The price probably won't be much to write home about, though.
Race Summary	Uffda has some appeal while trying winners for the first time with some decent back turf form and an impressive graduation run under her belt. Puts it all together here?

Del Mar - Race #8

#10 Enjoy It Strait	He's pretty honest and handled Red Cross Knight when they last met, and he has some obvious upside while moving back to the turf after the dirt run for the new team. Perfect first-jump trip watching the more committed players settle the early score?
#3 Red Cross Knight	The ones on either side of him could offer enough pace to keep him honest, but he looks like the best of the forward players with his usual effort. Wonder if he's likely to get picked up just before the wire.
#9 Flint Stroll	Think he's worth including on some of the deeper plays, as he showed a little life last time out and owns some back runs on his page that might keep him in the frame at a nice number.
Race Summary	Enjoy It Strait looks like a good fit here, and I'm hoping the move around two turns on the turf today will help him get back to something like the March score at Santa Anita -- pretty confident something like that would do the job again today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race 3	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / $1 Double / .50 Pick 3 .50 MIDDLE Pick 5 (15% takeout)
SO $25,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 1:30P
(RAIL AT 26 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED IN A CLAIMING RACE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE JULY 1, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT NOT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * DREAMING OF ABBA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PAYOUT RATIO (IRE): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MY BLESSING: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days . Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	DREAMING OF ABBA	7/2	5/2
2	PAYOUT RATIO (IRE)	9/2	6/1
9	MY BLESSING	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	PAYOUT RATIO (IRE)	2	9/2	Front-runner	68	75	109.9	73.3	64.3
1	DREAMING OF ABBA	1	7/2	Front-runner	81	81	87.2	81.5	75.5
10	SPATIAL REALITY	10	6/1	Front-runner	67	59	72.1	58.6	45.6
6	ON ANOTHER LEVEL	6	10/1	Front-runner	56	60	49.4	49.4	36.4
11	NEON CITY	11	12/1	Trailer	74	63	58.4	64.6	56.1
9	MY BLESSING	9	5/1	Trailer	74	72	50.6	61.7	52.2
7	PUT A ROCK ON IT	7	15/1	Trailer	64	66	45.6	62.9	42.4
4	APRIL APRIL	4	20/1	Trailer	67	64	45.2	58.0	42.0
12	SHE'SALLATWITTER	12	15/1	Trailer	56	41	39.8	31.3	13.8
5	BY THE GLASS	5	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	81	64	56.7	63.4	53.4
8	HEYBACKATCHA	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	77	54.3	52.9	39.9
3	HONORABLE CHILL	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	50	38	27.0	27.0	10.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 5	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $28,000 • Post: 2:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JUNE 1 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GUT INSTINCT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GUT INSTINCT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CHARLESTON : Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LAST COOKIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	GUT INSTINCT	2/1	5/2
5	CHARLESTON	1/1	5/1
4	LAST COOKIE	7/2	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	GUT INSTINCT	2	2/1	Front-runner	79	81	72.6	74.2	69.7
5	CHARLESTON	5	1/1	Stalker	89	82	72.6	69.2	65.7
4	LAST COOKIE	4	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	81	76	77.4	71.8	67.3
1	SIR	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	76	76.8	65.8	57.8
3	CLOAK AND DAGGER	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	73	47.4	58.7	49.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Retama Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 11 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 66

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 125 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 RELENTLESS IZZY 5/2
# 8 EM HEZA FAST DASH 4/1
# 7 DASHING GEM 6/1

I have to consider RELENTLESS IZZY here. Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 60 speed rating which is one of the most favorable in this group of animals. This filly looks strong in this race since Keeton has a solid win percentage with horses going this distance. Will most likely compete solidly in the pace contest which bodes well with this field. EM HEZA FAST DASH - Looks respectable for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid numbers in short races as of late. This choice will feel the med change - on Lasix today. DASHING GEM - Meeting a much softer field of horses than last time out. Don't let this colt slip past you. Could score at boxcar odds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:17pm - Maiden Special - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#5 GHOSTLY ANNA (ML=6/1)
#1 CRY TOUGH (ML=2/1)


GHOSTLY ANNA - Has discovered a good spot in today's event. CRY TOUGH - It's a big plus that this first timer has been working over the same track that she makes her debut at today. This jock/handler duo has been producing a high winning percent, right around 31. The addition of Lasix might make this equine wake up in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 AIM'S REDIRECT (ML=5/2), #7 CRAFTY CANDYGRAM (ML=7/2),

AIM'S REDIRECT - Don't feel this horse will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed fig was pedestrian when compared with today's class figure. CRAFTY CANDYGRAM - Hasn't raced since February 23rd, probably too long ago to be effective this time. Can't wager on this pony in today's sprint of 4 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance event recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 GHOSTLY ANNA to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 1 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 1 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 BADGER KITTEN 4/1
# 5 PASTA SALAD RHONDA 7/2
# 2 GOLDEN GOPHER 6/1

My selection here is BADGER KITTEN. Valenzuela has an excellent ROI over the past month (+42) which ought to help wagerers with this selection. Looks respectable to be up near the lead at the first call. Has to be given a chance versus this field displaying quite good figures lately and an average speed figure of 81 under similar conditions. PASTA SALAD RHONDA - Ought to be given consideration based on the competitive speed fig recorded in the last contest. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Carmona should have this filly in excellent position to win the race. GOLDEN GOPHER - The average class rating of 76 makes this one tough to beat. Could beat this group given the 81 speed figure posted in her last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Saratoga - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating:

#5 CHARGING AERO (ML=8/1)
#3 CHATEAU (ML=5/2)
#4 CRITICAL THREAT (ML=3/1)


CHARGING AERO - When Rivera and Abreu combine forces on animals the return on investment has been wonderful at +53. This race sets up for this gelding. I call this the 'Lone Stalker' scenario. When the real running starts, he'll be in the catbird's seat. This gelding should be at the fitness peak, this far into his form cycle. CHATEAU - His win on Mar 22nd in the Voided Claim: Vet, at 6 furlongs, is a big plus for this gelding. Have to give this gelding a good chance. Ran a sharp contest last time around the track within the last thirty days. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Is ranked highest in earnings per race entered. A dominant try today will add to the lifetime earnings. CRITICAL THREAT - Won his last after shipping in. I like him again. This gelding is in nice form, having run a good race on Jul 19th, finishing first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A BRONX BOMBER (ML=8/5), #1 WRITER'S REGRET (ML=8/5), #6 GRAYWING (ML=6/1),

BRONX BOMBER - 84/74/69, are the lessening speed figures for this questionable contender. WRITER'S REGRET - Difficult to bet on this vulnerable equine in today's event. Make him show you something in a short distance race before you wager on him in a race of 6 furlongs. Awfully difficult to play this less than sharp equine when he hasn't been showing any fighting spirit lately. GRAYWING - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint contests of late. Not probable to see him doing it this time either. Don't think this pony will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 CHARGING AERO on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5] Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6