Friday 8/2/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts






Delaware Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#5 BAR DOWN EXPRESS (ML=4/1)


BAR DOWN EXPRESS - Finished outside the top 3 last out at Delaware Park, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 4/1 makes me think he's got a chance. This front runner should benefit from today's shorter distance. You always have to be on the watch for revenue generating jock/conditioner duos; we have an instance right here. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed fig, 73, is tops in this field. Another way to judge class is earnings per start. This horse has the top in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish line.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ESTILO MAGICO (ML=8/5), #2 DUBLSHOTOFCOURAGE (ML=3/1), #1 DISCREET DEVIL (ML=4/1),

ESTILO MAGICO - This chalk horse ran on Jun 7th and hasn't had a work after that. Don't feel this entrant will do much running in today's event. That last rating was substandard when compared with today's class rating. DUBLSHOTOFCOURAGE - The Brain always cautions me to stay away from horses in sprint races that haven't hit the board in sprint contests of late. 77/69/54, are the deteriorating speed figs for this racer. DISCREET DEVIL - The Brain always warns me to keep away from thoroughbreds in sprint affairs that haven't hit the board in short distance contests lately. Didn't finish in the money on May 22nd at Delaware Park. Followed it up with another lackluster effort.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 BAR DOWN EXPRESS to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

SARATOGA PICKS 8/2/24 - Talking Horses Experts

Andy Serling
Race 1 2 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 2 3 - 9 - 7 - 4
Race 3 2 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 4 1 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 5 5 - 7 - 1A - 8
Race 6 2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 7 6 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 8 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 9 1 - 3 - 8 - 4
Race 10 1 - 8 - 9 - 4

Jonathon Kinchen
Race 1 4,5,2,1
Race 2 7,1,1A,9,8
Race 3 2,1,3,6
Race 4 3,1,2,5
Race 5 7,1,5,10
Race 6 5,10,1,4
Race 7 4,6,7,1
Race 8 1,6,7,5
Race 9 8,3,4,2
Race 10 9,1,3,5

[ConleyPicks]

Picks & Plays for Friday, August 2
SARATOGA

by David Aragona

Race 1: 2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 7 - 5 - 1A - 3
Race 6: 6 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 1 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 9: 1 - 3 - 4 - 8
Race 10: 4 - 1 - 9 - 3 FAIR VALUE PLAYS


(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 2

Fly Right (#7) is the horse to beat based on his overall body of work on the turf. The problem is that his body of work is fairly large. He’s already made 9 starts on this surface, and he’s starting to run out of chances. The good news is that he’s dropping out of maiden special weight company for the first time, so perhaps the class relief will finally put him over the top. He also didn’t get the best trip last time, chasing a fast pace that ultimately fell apart. He’s returning from a brief layoff as a new gelding, and I expect him to run well. I just think others have more upside. I want to key in on a couple of alternatives. One of those is Sham’s Pride (#3), who didn’t show much in his debut sprinting on the turf. Yet he ran very well in his second start when stretched out to a mile at Kentucky Downs last year. He was pretty sluggish through the early stages, but really kicked into gear late, flying past rivals across the wire. That’s been a productive race, as Frontline Warrior broke his maiden second time out and Smokey Smokey went on to win a stakes on grass as a 3-year-old. The long layoff is obviously a concern, but he’s returning in a realistic spot for Whit Beckman. My top pick is Six Kings (#6), who gets on the turf for the first time. This former Godolphin runner was sold for $65k at auction after his last start, purchased by Jordan Wycoff and Joe Sharp, who immediately switch him to turf. He also makes his first start as a new gelding. He faced some very good horses in his first couple of starts, so the class relief could really help him. He also has pedigree for turf, by good influence Nyquist out of a dam who is a half-sister to turf multi-millionaire and Grade 1 winner Film Maker. Furthermore, Joe Sharp is 14 for 91 (15%, $2.21 ROI) with horses switching to turf for the first time over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#6 SIX KINGS, at 4-1 or greater


RACE 4

Tricky Temper (#3) is a logical favorite as she drops in class out of a couple of tougher spots. She actually ran very well coming off the layoff in the Bouwerie, chasing home the sharp Landed as well next-out stakes winner Caldwell Luvs Gold. Then last time she faced open allowance horses in a very fast race for the level, and lost her best chance when getting off to a slow start. She’s now dropping down to her appropriate New York-bred allowance condition, and she looks like the most likely winner. I prefer her to both Athena Beach (#1) and Gone and Forgotten (#2), who hit the wire together at this level on June 15. Athena Beach is a little more appealing given her overall record and the grit she typically displays in her performances. She also was chasing inside last time after dueling with the winner, who was just better than she is. Gone and Forgotten did nip her at the wire, but she was simply picking up pieces. I also don’t feel that she’s really moved forward since switching into the Rick Dutrow barn. My top pick is Missing Fortune (#5). This Finger Lakes-based mare came to Saratoga last year, registering an upset victory and a second in a couple of decent allowance races. She then came back to NYRA in the winter to run some nice races at Aqueduct, including a better than it looks fourth on Jan. 19 when against a rail bias. She returned from a layoff last time and put in a good effort to just miss. That’s a race from which multiple horses have returned to improve their speed figures in subsequent starts including Tosconova Beauty, who ran well at Saratoga last week.

Fair Value:
#5 MISSING FORTUNE, at 7-2 or greater


RACE 6

This starter optional claiming is a highly competitive affair, but I do think Unleash the Power (#5) is clearly the one to beat based on his form against better company. He almost got the job done against N1X company two back at Churchill and then last time was making a move into contention in mid-stretch when he got pushed inside, forced to alter course, losing momentum. He now gets logical class relief, after having run well in similar spots at Saratoga last year. He appears to be doing even better company into this race as a 5-year-old and appears to be a deserving favorite. I prefer him to a couple of others who could take money exiting the local July 12 race at this level. Gilded Craken (#1) did seem to improve getting back on turf, but he got a very good trip, saving ground early before finding room between horses in the stretch. Palace View (#4) might have been even more fortunate in getting up for third, since he was farther off a hot pace and found a seam to rally up the inside. Both are contenders again, but I didn’t expect either one to offer much value. Harvard (#3) is facing a better field here than he met in June at Belmont at this level. However, he did seem to take to turf well in his first attempt over the surface, and deserves some credit for hanging around late after chasing a fast pace that came apart. He’s drawn well inside for this distance. My top pick is Typhoon Fury (#6). This 3-year-old faces winners for the first time after beating maiden claimers in his most recent starts. Yet it isn’t that race that interests me as much as his prior form. He had run better than it appears in a few starts going two turns at Gulfstream through the winter and spring. He got into trouble when encountering traffic three back, and then got a very wide trip when attempting to rally on April 27. I think he could fit well at this level, and this distance is perfect for him. I’m also not bothered by the claim, since John Toscano is 12 for 58 (21%, $2.23 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#6 TYPHOON FURY, at 6-1 or greater


RACE 9

Neat (#4) has to be considered the horse to beat in this Grade 2 National Musem of Racing Hall of Fame. He is a two-time graded stakes winner on turf, facing a field of runners who collectively lack any wins at that level. This Rob Atras trainee has won 5 out of his last 6 turf starts, the only loss coming against some of the best in his division on Kentucky Derby day in the Grade 2 American Turf. He bounced back out of that rare defeat with a win in the Manila at Aqueduct, and figures to be tough with a similar effort here. A couple of his rivals who could attract the most attention are runners based in Kentucky. Army Officer (#8) finished ahead of Zverev (#3) when they met on May 11 at Churchill Downs, but the Bad Cox runner had a better trip. Army Officer returned from that runner-up result to win an allowance race over this course and distance. He looks ready for this step up to stakes company. Zverev got shuffled back early and encountered traffic in upper stretch and then again in the last sixteenth in that loss to Army Officer two back. However, he displayed improved tactical speed last time when besting another Brad Cox trainee, West Hollywood, who returned to win here last Saturday. My top pick is a horse who finished behind Neat last time in the Manila. Please Advise (#1) got a perplexing ride that day, as he broke quickest from the gate while the clear speed broke very slowly. Eric Cancel seemingly had an opportunity to control the race up front, but instead dragged Please Advise all the way back to last. The pace was slow, and he had little chance to make up ground late. This horse had also gotten difficult trips two back three back. He was 3 to 4-wide around the turns, racing without cover in the Penn Mile, and had previously gotten an uncomfortable trip in the English Channel, blocked in traffic on the turn before getting pushed inward into traffic through the stretch. He possesses better tactical speed than he displayed in those races, as evidenced by his sprint form last year. Now he returns as a new gelding, while getting a significant rider switch to Flavien Prat, who figures to be more aggressive from this rail draw. Weaver tends to use Prat sparingly, but they are 5 for 13 (38%, $4.57 ROI) teaming up in turf races over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#1 PLEASE ADVISE, at 5-1 or greater

[ConleyPicks]

8/2- Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Saratoga Selections

Race 1

1st -She's Wicked Smart

2nd -Patty Brown Eyes

3rd -Two Sharp

#1 SHE'S WICKED SMART bested only one in the return of an elongated absence during Belmont week, but likely needed that race, and we see that there is no scary drop this afternoon. Lasix is now a part of the makeup, and that's relevant as this barn scored the only time they added such to dirt runners off of 51 to 63 day breaks, and they accomplished the same thing with maiden special weight runners getting the big "L" off that same sabbatical the only time they tried. Toss in blinkers for the first time, and you have some positive things to hang your hat on. #3 PATTY BROWN EYES closed out the exacta in both starts to date, and who are we to rock that boat? #4 TWO SHARP was a bit tardy to the party when starting things out down in Louisville at the end of June, but expensive auction purchase is obviously well meant, and the 380 Tommy and pick it tells us there's some room for improvement. Should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there.

Race 2

1st -Six Kings

2nd -Sandborn

3rd -Fly Right

#6 SIX KINGS takes a decent drop in making his first start for the new outfit, but retains the pilot from the most recent, which works for us, as this jockey/trainer tandem do well together. 3Y) has lost his procreating abilities since last in action, and although the turf pedigree leaves a bit to be desired, it's decent enough to make this one a mild selection. #9 SANDBORN has the hood added after getting smacked around in the debut on June 30th, and deserves another chance, especially with Flavor Flav of getting on. #7 FLY RIGHT has a decent overall body of work, and that includes two in the money finishes after a break in the action. This is another one who can no longer make whoopie. OFF TURF: 4-2-5-7-8

Race 3

1st -Laughing Boy

2nd -Perform

3rd -Harlow Cap

#4 LAUGHING BOY hasn't been seen since April, but owns a decent amount of back class, and has done okay at the trip, while having scored at a whopping 55 to 1 the only time he was beneath today's pilot. Six yr. old "horse" ( Hang on to those marbles buddy it's no laughing matter! ) has enough speed to make things interesting. #1 PERFORM has hit the board in all three starts this year, and they came in his only pairings with the jock. #2 HARLOW CAP has been in the money in his last three dirt routes, and would be no surprise.

Race 4

1st -Tricky Temper

2nd -Athena Beach

3rd -Gone and Forgotten

#4 TRICKY TEMPER had a slow start in his second off the bench deal a fortnight back, but deserves a chance to make amends while getting the miracle drug for the second time. Irad sees fit to stick around, and we will give her a chance to make amends back in with state breds. #1 ATHENA BEACH is an extremely consistent gal who is a whopping four of five at today's trip. The lone blemish came just before a lengthy absence, and we'd be Silly McGilly to leave this one off our tickets. #2 GONE AND FORGOTTEN ( who should be no worse than 3rd in this spot ) has been in the money in her last troika, and is another with a sensational mark at today's distance of ground, as the 12:8-2-2 ledger belies. Note that there was a claim voided last time out, so it would behoove you to take a peek at this one pre race.

Race 5

1st -Exotic Cat

2nd -Queen Rocket

3rd -American Kestrel

#6 EXOTIC CAT is most definitely giving the appearance of being a professional maiden, and although she hasn't been seen in nearly nine flips of the calendar, we like the fact that this 5% trainer is 6:3-1-0-1 with those going long on the lawn off breaks of 78 days or more, at 27 to 1 or less. The winners came back $8 x 2, and $14, and as we like to go back anywhere in a maidens' past performances to find something positive, we do see that this one has some running lines that would put her in the thick of things. #10 QUEEN ROCKET showed some decent speed in the most recent, and switches from a double bug to an established journeyman this afternoon. Would be no surprise. #5 AMERICAN KESTREL has played the fade in all three starts to date, but takes the biggest drop in the biz this afternoon, and has the potential to stick with it a little bit longer. OFF TURF: 1-4-6-2-5

Race 6

1st -Typhoon Fury

2nd -Harvard

3rd - Jirsch

#6 TYPHOON FURY procured the sheepskin when being made available for purchase for the first time 26 days in the rear, and after that sprinting win is stretched back out to two turns this afternoon, for which he's had some success. #3 HARVARD gave a solid account of himself when going over the green stuff for the first time at the end of June, and we see no reason to exclude in this spot. #2 J HIRSCH was in the back half of the pack when facing winners for the first time, but that's never an easy spot, and sometimes they can rebound when facing victors for the second time. Not hopeless. OFF TURF: 3-8-2-6-12

Race 7

1st -Carol T

2nd -Maggie T

3rd -Five to Two

#7 CAROL T completed the triple in a near identical spot down in Ozone Park on the 7th of July, and given her running style, today's outside placement should probably suit her a little bit better. There is a small trainer stat in play, as Jiminez is two for four with allowance dirt entrants who were ITM less than seven weeks ago, and the winners paid $7 and $4. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the last seven Beyer speed figures of #6 MAGGIE T, as this gray gal has done nothing but improve over that time. Who knows where the ceiling really is in that regards, and given her four runnerup finishes in as many starts at this distance, we have no problems sliding her into the two spot today. #1 FIVE TO TWO is protected off of the claim from last out, and steady sort has been a part of the superfecta in each and every start to date. Blinks are now a part of the makeup, and this miss is a definite triple player.

Race 8

1st -Cinderella's Dream

2nd -Greenfinch

3rd -Segesta

#1 CINDERELLA'S DREAM went from zero to hero to win an identical event at Aqueduct 27 days back, and we think there's enough early speed in here to ensure a nice pace setup once again. Slight edge in the Grade Two Oaks. #5 GREENFINCH gets the acid test today, but she's two for four on left handed courses, and discount these connections at your own peril. #6 SEGESTA has done nothing but improve since beginning her working life down in Hallandale Beach this past winter, and while she has a big shot, she does in fact lose seven slots in the post position department to our top selection. OFF TURF: 1-2-8-5-7

Race 9

1st -Buttercream Babe

2nd -Lagynos

3rd -Zverev

#2 BUTTERCREAM BABE has encountered trouble in her last quartet, and as one of them was on the dirt and another one preceded a layoff, we're going to pay attention to the recent duet. She came from the back of the pack to pick up 20% of the pot at Indiana Downs on July 13th, and just before that was a convincing winner versus optional competition right here. Aside from the Breeders' Cup disaster, the only other start versus graded competition yielded a neck defeat at Santa Anita, and the meet's leading rider hops on for the first time. #5 LAGYNOS has been camera shy in his last sextet, but given the overall record on the verde, we have no qualms with tossing beneath. #3 ZVEREV comes in today of of three successive career best BSF's on the sod, and despite the class hike, must be left in the mix. OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-1

Race 10

1st -Posse Pocks

2nd -Geopolitics

3rd -Gallant Greta

#5 POSSE ROCKS gets her working papers today, and comes in with a nicely tucked away 5th best of 102 gate move for such. Levine is on a 4 of 7 run w/ with locally based dirsters not wearing blinkers, and those winners came back a healthy $8, $31, $10, and $17. #9 GEOPOLITICS has positively set money ablaze in completing the exacta all four times to date, and we'll keep her second once again. #8 GALLANT GRETA has a hefty Tomlinson figure for today's bow, and is a half to Gambling Girl, who banked more than $560,000.



Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 33-163 ( $450.50 )

[ConleyPicks]

Del Mar Friday, August 2, 2024

Ribbit Racing

PG

PP

Horse

WP

Jockey

WP

Trainer

Pace

ML

1	Optional Claiming $100,000; 5 Furlongs; turf; 6 runners; purse $81000

5	5		Unconquerable Keen		Berrios		D'amato	E	8/5
4	4		Man O Rose		Maldonado		Mullins	E	6/5
6	6		Daniel's Magic		Talamo		Harty	M	10

2	Maiden Claiming $20,000; 5 1/2 Furlongs; fillies and mares; 8 runners; purse $27000

6	6		Sky Sailing		Herrera		Garcia	M	5
1	1		Kisses Required		Gutierrez		Mathis	-	6
3	3		Vegas Charm		Escobedo		Mathis	-	10

3	Maiden Special; 5 Furlongs; turf; 9 runners; purse $75000

5	5		Pali Kitten		Maldonado		O'neill	-	5/2
4	4		Cajun Gold		Berrios		Sadler	-	3
7	7		Artislas		Gutierrez		Mullins	-	4

4	Maiden Special; 1 Mile; fillies and mares; 11 runners; purse $75000

1	1		Mizzyaan		Espinoza		McCarthy	-	5
9	9		Vibez		Fresu		Eurton	M	7/2
8	8		Normandy Queen		Smith		Glatt	E	5/2

5	Starter Allowance $50,000; 1 Mile; turf; fillies and mares; 8 runners; purse $40000

4	4		Strikingly		Laprida		Polanco	M	8
5	5		Certitude		Berrios		Sadler	M	5/2
8	8		Princess Midnight		Valdivia		Herrick	E	12

6	Real Good Deal Stakes; 7 Furlongs; 12 runners; purse $150000

6	6		Curlin's Kaos		Herrera		Garcia	M	6
13	12		Shady Tiger		Hernandez		D'amato	E	9/5
1	1		Pure Madness		Espinoza		Koriner	E	7/2

7	Maiden Special; 1 Mile; turf; fillies and mares; 11 runners; purse $75000

2	2		Helga Brandt		Fresu		Gaines	-	3
3	3		Hannah Buckle		Ayuso		Powell	R	8
4	4		Upcharge		Smith		D'amato	R	6

8	Maiden Claiming $50,000; 5 1/2 Furlongs; fillies and mares; 14 runners; purse $39000

14	14		Perkins		Maldonado		Mathis	E	3
11	11		Moonlight Tryst		Cedillo		Pederson	R	5/2
10	10		Annie's Hope		Talamo		Gaines	E	8

[ConleyPicks]

Saratoga Ribbit Racing
Friday, August 2, 2024

PG PP Horse WP Jockey WP Trainer Pace ML

1 Maiden Special; 6 1/2 Furlongs; fillies and mares; 6 runners; purse $100000
6 6 Stellify Geroux Cox - 5/2
2 2 Lady Pink Prat Brown - 3
4 4 Two Sharp Alvarado Bauer E 7/5

2 Maiden Claiming $75,000; 1 1/16 Miles; turf; 12 runners; purse $60000
7 7 Fly Right Castellano Abreu E 7/2
1 2 Triumphant Road Vazquez Barker M 10
8 9 longshot play Tiz Wicked Strong Ortiz Antonacci M 10

3 Optional Claiming $62,500; 1 1/8 Miles; 6 runners; purse $115000
3 3 Costa Terra Ortiz Rice R 4
6 6 Power Seeker Lezcano Rice M 3
1 1 Perform Davis McGaughey R 5/2

4 Optional Claiming $45,000; 6 Furlongs; fillies and mares; 6 runners; purse $100000
5 5 Missing Fortune Baez Saul M 4
2 2 Gone And Forgotten Dettori Dutrow R 5/2
1 1 Athena Beach Gomez Synnefias E 7/2

5 Maiden Claiming $40,000; 1 1/16 Miles; turf; fillies and mares; 12 runners; purse $55000
5 6 American Kestrel Davis Tagg E 5
7 8 Pay The Bills Prat Brown R 5/2
10 11 Queen Rocket Ortiz Aro E 10

6 Starter Optional Claiming $35,00p; 1 Mile; turf; 16 runners; purse $70000
5 5 Unleash The Power Rosario Stall E 3
1 1 Gilded Craken Saez Sharp E 5
4 4 Palace View Ortiz Casse M 4

7 Allowance; 7 Furlongs; fillies and mares; 7 runners; purse $95000
1 1 Five To Two Santana De M 3
5 5 Foxy Cara Cancel Friedman R 7/2
6 6 Maggie T Rivera Giangiulio E 7/2

8 Fasig; 1 3/16 Miles; turf; filles; 7 runners; purse $400000
1 1 Cinderella's Dream Buick Appleby R 6/5
6 6 Segesta Ortiz Brown E 7/2
2 2 Dancing N Dixie Ortiz Casse R 8

9 National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame Stakes; 1 Mile; turf; 8 runners; purse $500000
8 8 Army Officer Dettori Cox E 7/2
5 5 Lagynos Torres Asmussen M 9/2
2 2 Buttercream Babe Ortiz Maker E 8

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Philadelphia/Seattle Under 7? Runs

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U


Friday's Free Selection: Kansas City Royals/Detroit Tigers under 7

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 Sports


Friday's Free Play: Houston Astros - 155

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Easy Money Sports


Free Friday Baseball Selection From Lee
ARIZONA w/Pfaadt -131

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Huddle Up Sports


Thursday Free Play:
LA Angels Fulmer -125

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Teyas Sports


FREE PLAY 8/2/24 MLB Milwaukee -115

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from John Anthony Sports


John Anthony's Free Selection for FRIDAY: Take the NY ANGELS

*Presuming he means the LA Angels* lol

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Jim Feist


Jim Feist's Comp Pick, FRIDAY, AUGUST 2, 2024

Friday, August 2

MLB

955. Milwaukee Brewers -1.15 (3:45 PT / 6:45 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Roz Wins


ROZ FREE Selection FRIDAY, AUGUST 2, 2024

MLB

980. Mariners -1.14 (6:40 PT /9:40 ET)