Saturday 8/3/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2024, 09:59 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Hambo Day Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 3, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a loaded 16-race card with the headliner being the 99th edition of the Hambletonian that rolls in Race 12. The 99th Hambletonian Oaks is carded as Race 14. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 12. The sequence has a $125,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Don't forget to register for the Bet $150 get $20 Back Promo at the Big M on Saturday

Race 12 (4:45 PM EST)

1-Karl (6/5)-There are many reasons to think Karl wins and does so by controlling the mile from start to finish or soon after. The reason to believe it won't be so easy is if the fractions are hot and others won't respect the chalk as they would if there wasn't a $1,000,000 purse. My play in this sequence is to look for an upset in the first two legs. If that were to happen a decent return on this ticket is possible.
8-Sig Sauer (4-1)-This Noel Daly pupil has raced well in his 2nd and 3rd starts this year. The colt posted a win in the Dancer at a large price and came a hard charging 2nd from this same post to finish 3rd to Karl. Has the gate speed to get a decent seat and will need a sharp drive by Andrew McCarthy. But more than anything else hot fractions are required because the Muscle Mass colt can fly down the lane.
9-Private Access (10-1)-Has good gate speed and will need it when the wings fold. Also, can finish off a mile in a big way. The question is how fast does James MacDonald need to go in the opening quarter? If he doesn't need to scald the Luc Blais pupil early on and Karl is challenged during the middle half it could be picture time at a nice price.

Race 13 (5:26 PM EST)

1-Spicy Nice (10-1)-Needs a cozy trip and this is the spot to get one. Leaving from the inside should help and can close with one nice move to roll by. Looking for a price in this leg and will fade the program chalks (6-7).
2-Conversano (8-1)-Put in a nice mile to win at a 11-1 last time. This is another who can race near the top of the stack and might be overlooked.
3-Lady Landia (9/2)-Won 2 back with a 55.4 back half and then lost all chance in the next start because of a break in stride. Team Svanstedt pupil could be in the hunt with a clean trip and shouldn't be overlooked.
5-Torrisi (5-1)-Came off cover to finish 2nd in the last 2 races. Gets a new set of hands in James MacDonald, and he knows how to get into striking range to catch the leader down the lane.

Race 14 (6:06 PM EST)

1-Elista Hanover (9/5)-Winner of 10 straight and has only one loss this year and is certainly the one to beat. Should be close to the top off the gate but doesn't need to lead every step of the way to down this group.
4-Allegiant (3-1)-Drew off by 4 lengths in the Oaks Elim and should be out and rolling when the wings fold. The morning line chalk is talented and versatile. But if Elista doesn't come with her fast ball my lean will be to the Vernon Beachy pupil with Scott Zeron in the bike who does good work at M1 and has won 8 of 17 lifetime.

Race 15 (6:38 PM EST)

1-Silver Label (4-1)-This is a vey fine mare who has banked over $1.2 million but hasn't been able to solve the morning line choice Twin B Joe Fresh. Mohawk invader rolled the back half in 53.4 with a 26.3 kicker in last and should be a square price tonight. Gets a post edge on some tough customers and it will be up to Zeron to work an efficient trip.
7-Twin B Joe Fresh (2-1)-The Chris Ryder standout has won 4 straight and can get the job done on any size oval. Regular pilot Dexter Dunn will be in the bike and this mare should be in control of the mile shortly after the wings fold. Hasn't raced since 7-13 but did qualify in 151.2 at M1 on 7-26 and appears ready for a top effort.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,8,9/1,2,3,5/1,4/1,7
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2024, 10:00 AM

Scott Shapiro: Ellis Park Weekend Stakes Analysis

August 3, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

The popular Kentucky Downs seven-day racing meet is less than a month away, which means it is time for the two-day Kentucky Downs Preview stakes events over the Ellis Park turf course this weekend. A trio of $250k stakes races on Saturday followed up four turf stakes on Sunday make this yet another must play weekend at the “Pea Patch.” Here are a few runners I will be keying in on in Henderson, KY over the next couple of days.

Saturday, Race 7: KY Downs Preview Mint Ladies Turf Sprint S.

The stakes action kicks off with this 5.5-furlong dash over the lawn where the Louisiana-bred mare #8 Ova Charged is listed as the understandable 6-5-morning line favorite. The daughter of Star Guitar has rattled off seven straight victories since entering the Shane Wilson barn last year. She draws favorably outside of the other likely speed #7 B G Warrior and should have little issue handling this group.

I have little interest in taking on Ova Charged but hope to find value by fading #5 Red Carpet Ready. This Oscar Performance filly won three straight to start her career and has earned over $734k overall but all the success has come over the main track. The move to the lawn feels hopeful more than the plan after failing to perform at her best in two graded dirt stakes in Kentucky this spring. Perhaps she takes to the surface switch, but as the second choice I am willing to take my chances against her.

#3 Awesome Treat is the price option that intrigues most. The Awesome Patriot mare ships back down to Kentucky after three starts in Canada. She was unable to hit the board in any of those efforts at Woodbine but has been freshened up by trainer Justin Wojczynski. I expect her to be rolling late under jockey Sophie Doyle. #6 Niki Nine Doors is also worth consideration underneath in exotics. She ran well in her first start over this turf course for a barn that had an extremely strong first half of 2024.

Plays: Exacta 8-3, Trifecta Key 8 with 2+3+6

Sunday, Race 7: KY Downs Preview Turf Sprint S.

There appears to be quite a bit of early speed signed on in the first of four stakes races on the Sunday slate. This bodes well for #2 Oceanic who looks to rebound after a disappointing trip to Toronto in late June. The son of Constitution was reportedly doing as well as ever prior to his start in the Highlander (G2) but failed to hit the board in his second start of 2024. I am willing to forgive that performance at Woodbine because the 7YO gelding found himself much closer to the early pace than normal. Look for a big bounce back effort for this Surfside Stables runner given the likelihood of a much quicker first-half mile this time around.

Plays: Win 2, Daily Double 2-4

Sunday, Race 8:KY Downs Preview Ladies Turf Mile S.

Much like the turf sprint before it, this one-mile event for fillies and mares should see an honest early pace, which is likely to make things a bit more difficult for 3-1-morning line favorite #11 Walkathon, as well as #3 Regal Realm, and #5 Fast as Flight. They are not necessarily need the lead types but definitely are better served when the pace is not chaotic early on.

I am hopeful the logicals get caught up in an early battle or move too early and set things for #4 Neverwalkalone. The Bonne Chance Farm filly makes her second start in the States for trainer Paulo Lobo after being headstrong in her first start in nearly ten months on June 22. The daughter of Agnes Gold took a good deal of public support going off at 2-1 in a field of five at Churchill Downs back on June 22 before finishing last, but was beaten less than four lengths. I expect the multiple Grade 1 winner in Argentina to relax much kinder today off of what should be a much faster early pace. Hopefully she can settle better in the early going and come with a strong late run under jockey Christian Torres. The price should be right to find out!

Play: Win 4

Good luck this weekend at Ellis Park and do not forget about Monday’s Late Pick 4 Hit/Split!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2024, 11:49 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #1

#2 Hey Lil Lady	Taking a price shot in the opener for a team that posted $34 and $61 winners here from just six similar starters over the last few years. She didn't show anything in the Ellis debut going short on the dirt, but I'm willing to give her a look at a decent number while trying this turf route.
#4 Lady Lollipop	Worth taking a look at her on the track and tote ahead of this one, but the barn does kind of OK, breakeven work with these kinds locally. Wouldn't be a shock, but the barn recently sent out a couple who went nowhere fast in a similar spot.
#7 Jack's Magic Girl	She appears to be coming into this well enough, so she's another who has some appeal on paper first time out. Similar kind of profile to #8 Sea Runner -- so check them all out and trust your gut.
Race Summary	Hey Lil Lady has an experience edge on a few of these, and she really has nowhere to go but up after the flat run. The team has popped a couple surprises in similar spots here in the past.

Del Mar - Race #10

#6 Sugar Fish	Can't wait to see how she stacks up on the step to face older horses after drilling a small Summertime Oaks group from off the pace at nearly 6/1. She's tactical enough to stay in reach of the chalk early, but you've got to hope someone like the rail runner forces the issue with that one early.
#2 Adare Manor	She might drill these at another short price, as she again looks like the controlling pace and was a good winner of this race last year. Obvious one to beat, and I wouldn't argue one bit with anyone trying to take a free space here -- she's supposed to win this.
#3 Scylla	I like the way she has been heading, but these are deeper waters today with the multiple Grade I winner drawn just inside of her. Along late for a share.
Race Summary	Sugar Fish has a lot of proving to do today, but I love her current form and think she could get the right kind of trip tracking the public's choice early.

Del Mar - Race #11

#6 Big Juanito	The good two-back run earned him the hike for an unsuccessful special-weight run last out, but he's right there with this bunch if he's able to get back to the May try while dropping back in for a tag today.
#2 Classically	Think he has a chance to find a dreamy trip tracking the pace today while stretching out, and I'd love to see him be a touch more tactical than he was here last summer while bring some reasonable upside in the second start back.
#9 Nuclear	Tough call. He hinted at being competitive with tougher in a couple starts to open his career, but there hasn't been anything to write home about in the two starts this year so far.
Race Summary	Big Juanito has a claim on this if he's able to get back to the good runner-up finish at Santa Anita, and I think the price might be OK even while getting some class relief today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2024, 11:52 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park
PURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 9	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &10 cent SUPERFECTA
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 4:10P
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 3 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SAMYAZA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the hi ghest TrackMaster Power Rating. FORTUNE'S FOOL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RUNNING RIVER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days . Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHIVAREE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	SAMYAZA	4/1	9/2
9	FORTUNE'S FOOL	6/1	6/1
5	RUNNING RIVER	6/1	8/1
4	SHIVAREE	7/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	RUNNING RIVER	5	6/1	Front-runner	87	83	94.0	72.6	63.1
3	WAR NOVEL	3	8/1	Front-runner	83	78	69.6	75.8	67.3
9	FORTUNE'S FOOL	9	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	93	79	84.4	75.2	69.2
4	SHIVAREE	4	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	91	90	73.8	81.6	72.6
1	SAMYAZA	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	97	87	56.2	89.4	83.4
7	GAMBLING TZAR	7	3/1	Trailer	84	80	50.2	74.6	62.6
8	TRANSFER THE FUNDS	8	30/1	Trailer	90	86	40.0	72.0	61.0
2	CAERUS	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	74	67.8	72.4	58.4
6	ALBERTANO	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	72	52.8	66.0	54.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2024, 11:53 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 6	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 56 • Purse: $24,200 • Post: 3:05P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PARTY POOPER is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PARTY POOPER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	PARTY POOPER	4/1	7/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	PARTY POOPER	3	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	68	59	65.0	42.6	39.6
4	GOLDSTRIKER	4	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	51	42	32.1	36.3	30.3
5	LIAM'S ROCKET MAN	5	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	50	26	18.7	49.0	44.0
6	COUSIN JOE	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	36	63.9	22.1	16.1

Unknown Running Style: ANNA'S KID (9/2) [Jockey: Mojica Jr Rafael - Trainer: Johnston Rebecca], WILDCAT DANCER (3/1) [Jockey: Mckee John - Trainer: Drury Jr Thomas].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2024, 11:53 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Stakes - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $44506 Class Rating: 98

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, BANK OF AMERICA CALIFORNIA REGIONAL CHALLENGE S. - GRADE 2 FOR THREE YEAR OLD'S & UPWARDS, HORSES WHICH QUALIFIED TO THIS RACE MUST PASS THE ENTRY BOX IN THE USUAL MANNER. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 A FAMOUS RIBBON 1/1
# 3 HES JUDGEANDJURY 2/1
# 4 THA DUKE 3/1

A FAMOUS RIBBON looks decent to best this field. Could provide positive dividends based on quite good recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 91. Has been racing solidly in races of this distance, going 7 for 17 under similar conditions. With Nicasio in the saddle guiding him, this gelding will probably be able to break out sharply for this event. HES JUDGEANDJURY - Put up a solid Equibase Speed Fig last time out. He has been moving very well recently while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figures. THA DUKE - Trainer has sharp win rate (20 percent) at this distance and surface. Taylor has him trained soundly to break quickly out of the starting gate.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2024, 11:54 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Ellis Park - Race #1 - Post: 11:50am - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $71,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#8 COLONEL YORKE (ML=5/1)
#1 MAXIMUM PROMISE (ML=2/1)

COLONEL YORKE - When this rider and handler partner up you have to take a look. Murrill and Calhoun have been wonderful together. The July 7th race at Ellis Park was at a class level of (90). Dropping to a lower level considerably, so he should be in a good place. Has a pretty good chance to break maiden switching to the main track right here in this race. MAXIMUM PROMISE - Taking a class drop in class rating points from his Jul 7th race at Ellis Park. Based on that data point, I will give this thoroughbred the edge. This colt registered a nice speed figure of 77 in his last event. That speed rating should be good enough to win this time out. Last time around the track, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. A good sign he can close well, and should be right there at the finish line this time. Has a pretty good opportunity to break maiden moving over to the main track in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 EXTRADITION (ML=4/1), #5 COACH CLINT (ML=9/2), #4 CRYSTAL HILL (ML=6/1),

EXTRADITION - Had to show me lots more last out. Never made much of an impact. COACH CLINT - Hard to support this equine getting on the main track for the first time. A bit of a less than stellar outing when this colt finished fourth. Won't be easy for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced contenders list. CRYSTAL HILL - I'm predicting a less than stellar go out of him in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #8 COLONEL YORKE on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	8 with 1 with [2,4,7] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	[1,8] with [1,8] with [2,4,7,9] with [2,4,7,9] with [2,4,7,9] Total Cost: $48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2024, 11:54 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Colonial Downs - Race #3 - Post: 2:40pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#4 READIER (ML=2/1)
#5 CONTEMPLATION (ML=3/1)

READIER - My expertise says this is the lone stalker in the race. I like a thoroughbred that manages to hit the board as often as this horse. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. Earnings per race is something that I think can be a very valuable selection factor. This animal is ranked numero uno in this group. This horse earned a strong figure of 82 in his last event. That speed fig should be strong enough to prove victorious in today's event. Equibase speed figures on the grass point to this thoroughbred as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance/surface. CONTEMPLATION - This gelding was impressive in finishing third on a slow track on June 26th. A signal that he should do well against these horses in his first turf try. The return on investment when Curtis and Stidham get together is good. A definite class advantage goes to this horse. That's a good sign he will be very competitive in this race on the turf.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 NA PALI JOE (ML=4/1), #9 WATCH OUT WORLD (ML=5/1),

NA PALI JOE - I forecast a setback for this horse in this event. WATCH OUT WORLD - This gelding showed very liitle last time.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - READIER - I scan the TrackMaster Platinum PPs for this type of horse. Has the top TM Power Rating by at least 5 points.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 READIER on the nose if you can get odds of 6/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2024, 11:55 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19500 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 3, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $18,000, FOR EACH $2,000 TO $10,000 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 TAKESCHARGESMILING 9/5
# 6 TEAM TRAVIS 5/1
# 5 ASPIRING COMEDIAN 6/1

TAKESCHARGESMILING is my choice. Looks formidable to be up near the front end at the first call. Overall the Speed Figures of this pony look strong in this contest. Appears to have a formidable class edge based on the recent company kept. ASPIRING COMEDIAN - Has performed well lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 72 avg Equibase Speed Fig. This gelding has a very good win percentage in dirt sprint races.