Sunday 8/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2024, 09:10 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 4, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Big Boss Hill (9/2)-Makes the 2nd start since shipping in from Scioto and should be dialed on high. Isn't out of place with this crew and Austin Hanner can work an efficient trip with this post draw.
2-Elliott Moose (5/2)-Drew off by over 4 lengths against cheaper and then faced similar as the chalk and came with a dull effort. Returns to its favorite track and Aaron Merriman sticks so will look for much better.
3-I'm A Skoldier (5-1)-This is the 2nd start off a sick scratch and drops to a more competitive level. Chris Lems has gate speed to use, and this looks like a pocket trip candidate.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

5-Joggingtothebank (5/2)-Tried to wire this kind last time and just missed. This veteran likes to win. So does the Burkholder barn when teamed with Merriman as they post 23% winners.
7-Cornstar (5-1)-This mare has consistently hit the board this year (14-4-4-4) and has won 5 of 13 starts at Nfld. Lems will be coming off cover and can catch the leaders especially since there should be a lively pace.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Slipmeamiki (5/2)-This might be a 2 horse battle. The Ed Miller trainee comes off a big try from post 8 to just miss. Should get a less taxing trip to get a close-up seat and be there at the wire.
3-Kneedeep N Custard (2-1)-Went off at 2/5 and wired easier, now also bumps up. Merriman should get the top, although #3 Cool Man Dude can challenge. Has the post edge over others with gate speed and that could be the winning difference. The other advantage the Bendis entry has is having the best pilot in the field.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

1-The Golden Jet (5/2)-Bumps up after winning from the 9-hole. Fits and has beaten better here this summer. This race will go through the 4-year-old.
5-Melodies Major (5-1)-Drops after being in a race that went in 151.4. Will toss the last start, fits better here and Hunter Myers could have the pedal down and land in the pocket. Should offer a square price and a top try puts the veteran in the hunt.
9-Kashed Up A (4-1)-Makes its Nfld debut after trying Lasix and winning at the Meadows. Merriman should get away in decent shape as the rail horse will get off the gate quickly. This is a bigger test but should offer a fair price and best to not overlook.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,2,3/5,7/2,3/1,5,9
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2024, 09:11 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #7

#1 Outadore	He's quick, but he might find himself in a perfect pocket spot if a couple of the more committed types go for it early. He's a bit of a question on class right now, but he shared in a minor Turfway stakes last year and owns some pretty sharp form if you isolate the turf runs.
#11 Coppola	He has been an honest type and doesn't catch anyone like Cogburn or Arzak today, so I think there's a real chance he wins right back after scoring on the main last out. Positional pace should be there.
#12 Charcoal	He's capable of something better, and his very best stuff might be enough to land a piece of this at a big price. It has been a bit since he ran a really big one, but he ran pretty well in this race last year.
Race Summary	Outadore might be an OK price while rising off the claim, and he has been super honest when racing on the lawn. Hoping he turns a cozy trip into a score.

Ellis Park - Race #9

#9 Mont Saint Michel	She should be a nice price in here after the mild run at 33/1 in her stakes debut last out, and I think she's getting a great tactical trip while stepping into this deeper spot. Some appeal.
#6 Pin Up Betty	Not much wrong with her current form while dropping out of Grade I company, and she should get the jump on some of the serious finishing threats from the back.
#7 Mo Fox Givin	She's dancing a lot of dances, but she tends to show up with a pretty good run and didn't miss by a whole lot last out at Churchill. Something similar probably keeps her in the frame.
Race Summary	Mont Saint Michel may still have some room to come forward with just three starts under her belt, and I like the way the race shape figures to leave her in a great spot to take a shot at the leaders turning for home.

Ellis Park - Race #10

#2 Anglophile	A little concerned with his willingness to settle underneath, but a horse like Webslinger would be the big chalk here, and this one was at least in the mix with that guy last out. Think he's tough here if he brings his A-game.
#4 Highway Robber	Finisher ran pretty well going nine furlongs here last summer, and he might wind up in a midpack spot while trying this trip for the first time. Think there is some appeal on the rise.
#5 Siege of Boston	There are some good company lines on his page, but he has also settled for a lot of shares in those recent tries. Seems like one of the ones, but I'm not sure at what price.
Race Summary	Anglophile gives me a little pause on overall form, but I'd be interested at something like the 6/1 ML offering while getting out of what feels like a tougher spot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2024, 09:11 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar
PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 cent Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double 50 cent min. Rolling Pick Three / $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) 50 cent Late Pick Four / $2 WPS Parlay
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $76,000 • Post: 5:29P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $21,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (HORSES THAT ARE ENTERED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE ARE RUNNING FOR A PURSE OF $62,000) (PLUS $18,600 TO CAL-BREDS) (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 2 STARTS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DADS ESTRELLA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a la yoff. SCARY FAST RIDE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CLASS CLOWN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SEQUIN LADY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Spee d Figure at the distance/surface. HOPE ROAD: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	DADS ESTRELLA	30/1	6/1
9	SCARY FAST RIDE	7/2	6/1
7	CLASS CLOWN	15/1	8/1
10	SEQUIN LADY	30/1	8/1
5	HOPE ROAD	6/5	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	REPORT	1	5/1	Front-runner	89	84	87.9	80.7	67.2
7	CLASS CLOWN	7	15/1	Front-runner	93	87	71.6	86.0	73.0
2	DADS ESTRELLA	2	30/1	Stalker	95	95	87.6	88.8	79.3
4	UR IN TROUBLE	4	12/1	Stalker	77	85	82.0	71.4	56.9
5	HOPE ROAD	5	6/5	Stalker	82	93	78.8	82.2	73.2
10	SEQUIN LADY	10	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	89	80.8	83.8	72.3
8	DON'T BRING CRAZY	8	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	85	67.8	79.2	66.7
3	KRISTI'S TIGER	3	15/1	Trailer	94	88	59.6	80.6	69.1
11	NOKIE	11	15/1	Trailer	93	85	53.8	79.9	66.9
9	SCARY FAST RIDE	9	7/2	Trailer	97	91	53.2	92.6	89.1
6	AYE CANDY	6	30/1	Trailer	67	71	51.2	67.3	50.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2024, 09:12 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 1	Exacta / Daily Double 1-2
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 59 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 2:45P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 4 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. 3$ A CLASFS. $4,000 Y DEBTS. ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. EL ZAFIRO is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * EL ZAFIRO: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within h alf a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2	EL ZAFIRO	15/1	2/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	EL ZAFIRO	2	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	73	81.6	60.6	56.1
5	BOWSTRING BOY	5	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	63	63.4	44.6	37.1
3	DAN'S LOYALTY	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	62	43	62.6	48.0	43.0
4	BRING IT ON	4	5/1	Trailer	68	55	58.6	49.6	45.6
1	VIOLENT FIGHT	1	2/1	Alternator/Non-contender	54	41	60.4	41.8	32.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2024, 09:12 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grand Prairie

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - SA - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6700 Class Rating: 60

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A $4,000 CLAIMING PRICE OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024 AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON FOR A HIGHER CLAIMING PRICE, STARTER ALLOWANCE, OPEN ALLOWANCE OR A STAKES RACE SINCE LAST STARTING FOR $4,000 CLAIMING OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 PONY GIRL 5/2
# 2 COUNTESS CAT 10/1
# 4 WICKED WOMAN 4/1

PONY GIRL is the most competitive bet in this race. Could beat this field given the 52 speed figure earned in her last outing. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this one a definite contender. It's a good sign that Robson is using Rocha on this horse. COUNTESS CAT - Giesbrecht has a strong win percent with horses running in dirt sprint races. Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved speedily to the lead recently. WICKED WOMAN - Strong average Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races make this racer a definite contender. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me back this mare.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2024, 09:13 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Rosa - Race #2 - Post: 2:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#7 MONSIEUR (ML=8/1)
#6 RIOLO (ML=9/2)

MONSIEUR - Baker brings him right back. I advise you stick with this live gelding. Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. I expect a lot from this mount. His speed figs under similar conditions are tops in this field. This horse has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Garcia, and this one could bound home the winner. RIOLO - Like the way this colt's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. A racer coming back this quickly after a nice race is a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 NO D'ORO (ML=9/5), #3 BEAUTY IN AUTISM (ML=3/1), #2 EL BEARIN (ML=6/1),

NO D'ORO - Recorded a mediocre speed figure last time out in a $12,500 Maiden Claiming race on Jul 6th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that number. BEAUTY IN AUTISM - Should have at least hit the board in the last 60 days in a short distance race to be any kind of value at short odds in a sprint. Finished fifth last time. Would have to improve to finish in the money in today's race. This vulnerable equine ran a common rating in the last race. He shouldn't run much better and will likely get beat in today's race running that fig. EL BEARIN - Don't think this mount is worth 6/1 in this clash.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 MONSIEUR is going to be the play if we are getting 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2024, 09:13 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 89

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 BETYAR AZETS 5/2
# 6 DIRT FLIRT 9/5
# 5 JEWEL AZUL 6/1

I think BETYAR AZETS is a competitive choice. Will more than likely be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the midpoint of the outing. She has earned respectable figs under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group of horses. Risk takers ought to take a good look at this one as this filly has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of horses in this race. DIRT FLIRT - Silva is trying to prove victorious with this entrant by bringing her back so soon. With a respectable 89 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this competition. JEWEL AZUL - Garnered a sound Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2024, 09:13 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #3 - Post: 5:50pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 95

Rating:

#5 INDIAN EMPIRE (ML=8/1)
#3 RIP THORN (ML=4/1)
#8 ZERO GRAVITY (ML=20/1)
#9 CANDY INVASION (ML=15/1)

INDIAN EMPIRE - Owns the highest Equibase speed fig on the turf at this distance. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a strong race in the last race within the last month. Running over a familiar track, where he has won multiple times before, I have to put this one at the top of my list of strong contenders. RIP THORN - Have to give this horse a serious look. In recent races, has posted the best speed figures on the turf at this distance. Gelding's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. This gelding is in nice physical condition, having run a strong race on July 15th, finishing first. ZERO GRAVITY - Racing at a similar level as last race on July 15th at Mountaineer Park. I think Ramgeet has found a good spot for him, and I like his chances in this race. CANDY INVASION - Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SALINE RIVER (ML=1/1), #10 MISTERCHILLIWILLI (ML=8/1),

SALINE RIVER - Don't think this pony has what it takes to cross the finish line in first this time around. MISTERCHILLIWILLI - The lack of drills has to make one concerned despite the good effort in the last affair. Mediocre speed fig in the last race at Mountaineer Park at 7 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will improve too much today.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - INDIAN EMPIRE - This gelding doesn't have to improve too much to win this clash. Certainly worth a prime wager.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 INDIAN EMPIRE to win if you can get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass