Monday 8/5/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-05-2024, 07:38 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 5, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 gets going in Race 5, and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)

4-Shine A Light (6-1)-Put in a dull effort leaving from post 7 in the first start for the DiDomenico barn, and then was claimed by the Laterza stable. Gets post relief and will look for Brent Holland to be out and rolling. Should offer a price and could surprise if returns to previous form.
5-Big Dream Fella (3-1)-The Dilloian barn has been clicking and Fella makes the first start for that outfit. Needs a big try to win against 50K claimers but can compete well versus this kind. This is Jason Bartlett's choice, and he has won 32% of his drives for this barn. Best to respect and recent form has been good.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

2-Rockin N Talk (8-1)-This race is a taffy pull, so will go with a barn that has come to life and is posting 31% winners over the past 30 days. Plus, Bartlett wins at a 22% clip when steering for the Scran barn. Moves inside, that should help, and hopefully won’t be over bet.
5-Twin B Delux (9/2)-Normally, would look for a reason to play against 3 wins in row while moving up in class and if a short price. But this horse should be a square price, is the sharpest in the field and has won unlike others. Could be somewhat overlooked as Daniel Dube takes over for Scott Zeron.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Two Faced (2-1)-Does best on the point or close to it and that wasn’t the case early in the mile last time. Drops back to the level of its last win and draws the rail. Should be in control off the gate and could be tough to tackle at a small price.
4-Last Pound (6-1)-Comes back in sequence and makes the 3rd straight start on this oval. Has hit the board in all 3 of his previous races at Yonkers but hasn’t finished close to the winner. This is a soft group, and Jordan Stratton could work a stalking trip then look to catch a tiring leader at a price.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

1-Sullivan (4-1)-The Ken Koch barn has heated up nicely posting 38% winners over the last month and now Bartlett gets the call. The veteran is consistently a player at this level, could get the top and not look back.
4-Won Last Feeling (8-1)-Dropped to this level and raced evenly from post 7. Draws better and should be better. Dube has some gate speed to use and could land in a close-up seat or possibly in the pocket.
7-Genuis Man (3-1)-Winner of the last 2 has made it look easy each time. Loses George Brennan to #2 so Matt Kakaley takes a seat. From post 7 this won't be as easy. But the 7-year-old can bring it in the back-half of the mile and the pace should be lively.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,5/2,5/1,4/1,4,7
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-05-2024, 07:39 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#6 And Thats My Story	He has even sprint running lines that I could easily see translating to something better around two turns with a more leisurely tempo to deal with. Second choice today?
#3 Nicole's Will	I think there is a real chance he might be gone today on the stretchout, but I am a little worried the price will get short even after fading at 3/2 at first asking going short. Think there is a lot to like today.
#2 Urban Planner	Get a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this, but he has been prepping on the synthetic at Turfway and doesn't meet a ton of formidable running lines in his debut try.
Race Summary	And Thats My Story has not quite been able to keep up going short, but I think it might be a different story while he gets around two turns today. He's bred to handle some added ground and may be able to punch home against these.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#14 Life's Joy	She needs a couple scratches to get in, but I think she's live at a price if she goes. Her form is all over the place, but she has a couple of big running lines and a couple impressive names in her company lines. Could be in line to attack the entire way from the outside. Price swing if she's in.
#6 Ms. Tart	Finisher took a nice step forward in the second start back, and she could be sitting on a top effort today while returning to a surface she handled fine as a two-year-old. Hope for an early battle.
#10 Shuangxi	Her positional pace should keep her in a good spot throughout, and she should get the jump on the serious finishing threats. Reliable form makes her one of the ones.
Race Summary	Life's Joy doesn't yet know how to get past horses, so she's going to need to be up for a tough prompt from the outside the whole way, but I liked her last when trying synthetic footing for the first time. Ms. Tart and Shuangxi look like the right ones in the main body.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#6 Dark Side	Not sure the price is going to be a whole lot, but I think he's supposed to win this one while getting some class relief and synthetic footing, a combination that led to his most recent win, too.
#8 Electrostatic	He's an obvious player who might help keep the price somewhat playable on the top choice, as he's getting down in class off a close run with better and would handle these with his better recent stuff.
#7 Eight Weeks Long	He was one-paced in a try here last season, but he might offer a decent price for those expecting a big bounce-back effort off the Finger Lakes dud last time out. Grinding run could snag a share.
Race Summary	Dark Side and Electrostatic seem like the right pair in here, but the former might offer a slightly better number on the board and has a running style that might match the local profile just a bit better.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-05-2024, 07:39 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#2 TWO JET (4-1)	Looks to recapture 3yo form for high-percentage claim barn.
#4 COMMUNICATIONISKEY (9-5)	Controlled pace in win two back, well spotted under nw-4 condition.
#6 MONEY WELL SPENT (5-2)	‘Jet’ stablemate was odds-on fave in last three starts, winning once.
Race Summary	TWO JET, a $69k earner last year as a 3-year-old, was out-kicked by the 65-1 winner at Evangeline Downs last out, but she should sit a good stalking trip for her new connections and appears the value play in this spot. Bet to win and place.

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#8 ONLY A DREAM (7-2)	Broke slow, tipped out at quarter pole and hung in first try on the lawn.
#3 COACH SAM P (9-2)	Steady improvement in main-track sprints, turf the question.
#5 GET RIPPED (5-2)	Second to fave in first turf sprint, set pace in MSW company last out.
Race Summary	ONLY A DREAM, compromised twice by a slow start, was heavily-bet in his turf debut but gave way chasing a fast pace and the winning favorite. He can turn the tables on morning-line favorite GET RIPPED with an alert break from the outside. Bet to win and place and play 8-3 and 8-5 exactas.

Louisiana Downs - Race #3

#7 INVARIABLY (5-1)	Solid numbers, sustained wide rally to beat lesser.
#2 RIFEY (3-1)	Returns to claim level, can’t seem to avoid troubled starts.
#4 J B GRAY (4-1)	Lone two-time winner this year in field, edging away at 24-1 and 13-1 odds.
Race Summary	INVARIABLY arrived from Oaklawn Park and overcame a wide trip to win off a four-month layoff. His speed figures translate well to this spot and he is taken to repeat. Bet to win and place and play a 2-4-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-05-2024, 07:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 4	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 4-8)
Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 2:20P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 5. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. LARSA is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LARSA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CAUSE OF LOVE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GAIL'S DANCER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	LARSA	9/2	5/2
4	CAUSE OF LOVE	9/5	9/2
6	GAIL'S DANCER	2/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	LARSA	3	9/2	Front-runner	61	58	51.0	54.4	48.9
4	CAUSE OF LOVE	4	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	64	61	47.4	58.2	54.7
6	GAIL'S DANCER	6	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	60	18.6	41.2	36.2
5	I'M JAC'D	5	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	59	52	54.2	40.4	30.4
2	SOLE FACTOR	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	59	40.4	40.8	33.3
1	I GOT HOPE	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	46	14.6	37.0	26.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-05-2024, 07:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / .20 Pick 6 Jackpot
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 4:30P
(RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE FURLONGS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. SUPERHERO is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ONLY A DREAM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GET RIPPED: Horse ranks in the top th ree in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SUPERHERO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
8	ONLY A DREAM	7/2	9/2
5	GET RIPPED	5/2	9/2
4	SUPERHERO	6/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LEXINGTON RIVER	1	5/1	Front-runner	52	32	97.6	55.9	47.4
5	GET RIPPED	5	5/2	Front-runner	69	68	70.2	58.1	52.1
3	COACH SAM P	3	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	62	64	68.8	52.6	44.1
4	SUPERHERO	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	52	62.7	54.0	48.5
8	ONLY A DREAM	8	7/2	Trailer	71	59	55.0	60.7	57.7
6	UNAFFILIATED	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	42	18.0	41.8	32.8

Unknown Running Style: JUSTINS SECRET (12/1) [Jockey: Munoz Sergio - Trainer: Mickelson Judy], WAABOO (10/1) [Jockey: Singh Rohan R - Trainer: Winslow Janine].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-05-2024, 07:40 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $71000 Class Rating: 90

ELP - R6 - FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 GIOCOSO 3/1
# 12 COURAGEOUS CLAY 4/1
# 1 HOMER'S ODYSSEY 10/1

GIOCOSO is the best bet in this race. Has been racing admirably and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. Earned a solid Equibase speed fig last time out. Could provide positive gains based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 74. COURAGEOUS CLAY - Medina has this gelding racing well and is a decent choice based on the formidable Equibase speed figs recorded in route races recently. This animal has some longshot handicapping angles going for him. HOMER'S ODYSSEY - Has been running in the most competitive company of the group of animals lately. He has been travelling admirably lately while recording very solid Equibase Speed Figures.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-05-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6 - Post: 5:15pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $80,000 Class Rating: 97 Lady Erie S.

Rating:

#10 SHUANGXI (IRE) (ML=6/1)
#1 SILVER ROSE (ML=7/2)
#5 YOUALMOSTHADME (ML=5/2)
#2 VISUALLY (ML=12/1)

SHUANGXI (IRE) - Delacour brings her back again. I recommend you stay with this live filly. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. This filly has been posting some excellent workout times. SILVER ROSE - I took a look at this filly's finishes. She's almost always in the money. Just check out her last fig, 98. That one fits well in this bunch. The improved speed ratings over the last 3 races is great. Cox drops her in this race in shape and ready to win. YOUALMOSTHADME - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This filly's last work was second fastest of the day for the distance. Good winning percentage this jock and trainer twosome have been putting together. Cox is trying blinks on today. Note that this horse worked from the gate in a morning prep, most likely in blinkers. This filly is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. Ranked number 1 in earnings per race entered. Another notice that this horse is the class of the race. The improved Equibase speed figs over the last three races is great. Cox drops her in this race ready to go. VISUALLY - Looking over this filly's PPs, I see a couple of wins at a big price.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 STORM MIAMI (IRE) (ML=4/1), #11 GOLDEN GHOST (GB) (ML=8/1), #6 MS. TART (ML=8/1),

STORM MIAMI (IRE) - Didn't let me see any early zip in the route affair for me to back her in today's sprint contest. Not probable for this one to make an impact with no success lately in a sprint race. I usually bet against a grass horse trying the dirt for the first time. GOLDEN GHOST (GB) - This filly finished out of the money on May 12th and wasn't close to victory last time around the track either. MS. TART - Finished third in her most recent race with a substandard fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#10 SHUANGXI (IRE) is the play if we get odds of 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-05-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 57

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 BULLSEYE BEACH 9/2
# 5 GEORGE STRAIGHT 3/1
# 1 HER FIRST HERO 5/1

BULLSEYE BEACH looks to be a strong contender. Has been moving solidly and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance. There is a strong chance that this entry's late pace will improve on Lasix. His chances to prove victorious are much better today facing this less demanding bunch. GEORGE STRAIGHT - Has run strongly when racing a short race. Could beat this field given the 51 speed figure put up in his last outing. HER FIRST HERO - The odds could be just right on this horse. Expect a reliable performance with the class drop.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-05-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Ellis Park - Race #2 - Post: 12:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#7 GRAND PRAIRIE GAL (ML=5/2)
#1 QUEEN ANNA T (ML=6/1)

GRAND PRAIRIE GAL - A repeat of that latest race on July 7th where she earned a speed rating of 74 looks lofty enough to win in this event. Have to give this filly a chance. Ran a strong contest last time out within the last month. I'll forgive that last performance on July 7th when she failed to win as the public choice. That race was pretty good for a $16,000 Maiden Claiming race and this filly's fig was solid. Maiden is switching over to the main track, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to be a first time winner. This horse has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 57 to 64 to 74 right in a row. QUEEN ANNA T - When Concepcion and McKeever work together on horses the ROI has been great at +73. This horse collects a lot of dough per start. I believe she will add to the lifetime earnings in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 STREETS OF PARIS (ML=2/1), #5 AMERICAN SPLENDOR (ML=7/2), #3 OH MACARENA (ML=5/1),

STREETS OF PARIS - 2/1 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when examining the most recent showings. The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underlay. AMERICAN SPLENDOR - Just cannot bet on this questionable contender. Didn't show me anything last time out or on Jul 7th. OH MACARENA - In this situation, this steed's inability to close ground in the last affair is a cause for concern. The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a questionable challenger.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - QUEEN ANNA T - This filly will be very focused today. The 'shades' will do the trick.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 GRAND PRAIRIE GAL to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	Pass