Wednesday 8/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2024, 07:47 AM

Saratoga Scouting Report: August 7-11, 2024

August 5, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Key Races

Wednesday | G1 Kiser Memorial (steeplechase), Johnstone Mile (NYB, f/m dirt route)

Thursday | John Morrissey (NYB dirt sprint)

Friday | Evan Shipman (NYB dirt mile), Union Avenue (NYB f/m dirt sprint)

Saturday | G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational (3yo turf route), G1 Fourstardave (turf mile), G2 Troy (turf sprint), G2 Saratoga Special (2yo dirt sprint), Galway (3yo filly turf sprint)

Sunday | Mahony (3yo turf sprint)

Horsepower

Thursday | Affirmed Success winner Rotknee (R3 Morrissey Stakes), ’23 G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational winner Aspen Grove (R5 ALW)

Friday | Commentator winner Drake’s Passage (R2 Evan Shipman Stakes), Dancing Renee winner Kant Hurry Love (R8 Union Avenue Stakes), G3 Eatontown winner Tax Implications & ’23 Gazelle winner Promiseher America (R9 ALW)

Saturday | G1 Belmont Derby winner Trikari, ’23 G1 summer winner Carson’s Run (R6 Saratoga Derby Invitational); G1 Jaipur winner and world record-setter Cogburn, ’23 G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint runner-up Big Invasion (R9 Troy Stakes); ’23 G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Master of the Seas, G3 Kelso winner Carl Spackler, G2 Wise Dan winner Ottoman Fleet (R10 Fourstardave Stakes); G3 Quick Call winner Star of Mystery (R12 Galway Stakes.

Extra Incentives

Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites were 19 for 49 last week (39%), solidly stronger than previous weeks at the meeting.

-- Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was top pilot last week with 7 wins (22%) and a slight flat-bet ROI profit. Junior Alvarado not only won the G1 Whitney, but had 5 wins (33%, + ROI). Other top riders were Dylan Davis (4 wins, 24%, + ROI) and Jose Lezcano (4 wins, 31%, + ROI).

-- Chad Brown paced all trainers once again last week (6 wins, 29%, + ROI), but Saffie Joseph Jr. was highly effective with about half the number of starters (4 wins, 36%, + ROI). Mike Maker had a solid week (3 wins, 23%, + ROI), while John Kimmel went 2-for-3 with precision strikes.

-- 4 trainers have won 3 races for 2-year-olds so far this meet: Mark Casse (3-11), Mike Maker (3-9), Saffie Joseph Jr. (3-3), Chad Brown (3-12).

-- Only 14 of 49 winners last week had been away more than 5 weeks (35 days) since their previous start, putting an emphasis on current form as the meet deepens.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2024, 07:47 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Thistledown - Race #1

#4 Mighty Les	A little concerned the price is going to get on the short side, but he's a super-reliable type who always runs his race and should be in the mix again today.
#3 Quick Quick Whit	He's another with pretty honest form, but he doesn't always punch home with a ton of enthusiasm and could settle for another share today.
#1 Courthouse Cove	Tactical pace might get a tricky trip from the inside, but he was competitive with some similar types in the past and might get back to something more like that while rising off the good run last out.
Race Summary	Mighty Les looks capable in here with another perfect trip waiting for him while tracking the pace, and he seems bound to break through at this level sooner than later.

Thistledown - Race #6

#1 Dollar Dance	She really only has upside after the brief chasing effort first out, and the price is probably going to be appealing enough to give her a pass for that first one and see if she's made of something more today.
#3 Instigation	She's meeting a few firsters and some runners who have only shown speed-and-fade efforts so far, so I think her finishing ability makes her the one to beat today, but her style leaves her vulnerable to someone getting the jump on her.
#4 Complexity Girl	She tracked and faded in the debut run but has some upside off that try. She took some cash that day and might be a bit better meant than the first line suggests. Interesting, but probably not at the kind of price for me today.
Race Summary	Dollar Dance might be better than she showed in the debut run, and she should be a nice price to see if that's the case. The barn also sends out the debuter drawn just outside of her, so take a look there.

Thistledown - Race #8

#5 Swayback Mobil	He's getting short on excuses at this point, but there isn't much finishing punch lined up in this one, and something like his two-back closing effort might be enough to get the job done.
#2 Vecchi	His better stuff keeps him in the mix, but he's given away ground in the stretch call of every race in his career, so I wouldn't be thrilled to be sitting here at a modest price turning for home.
#4 Rich on the River	Take a look at him ahead of this, but he's not meeting the deepest special weight field you're ever going to see around here, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him make some noise first out.
Race Summary	Swayback Mobil always comes alive too late, but I'm not impressed by this group overall, and his ability to get past horses might be enough to get him home.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2024, 07:48 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#4 VIKING QUEEN (9-2)	Proven miler changes riders again, needs an alert start.
#1 CHLOE ROSE (9-5)	Plays to a steady beat, couldn’t reach longshot at 6F, back at better distance.
#6 HIGHTIME VALENTINE (5-2)	Upstaged in-the-money finishes with 7F romp at Parx.
Race Summary	VIKING QUEEN, no threat in a slow-paced $10k claimer, gained late in her prior two one-mile tests at Delaware. She threw her head at the start and lost in a photo finish May 23, then gained late after ‘rank’ behavior July 8. She’s worth a win and place bet.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#5 LADIDA (9-2)	Can use her speed well on the class drop in third try with blinkers.
#6 ORB’S PARTY GIRL (8-1	Second to even-money winner in crowded field at Parx.
#4 ZIFFY BUG (7-2)	Three seconds in last six starts at Penn National at various distances.
Race Summary	LADIDA broke sharply in a well-bet local debut but lacked late response in a race won by the favorite. She gets in light, gets class relief and gets the call for a win and place bet at 9-2 on the morning line. Also play 5-4 and 5-6 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #6

#3 HEY BROTHER (4-1)	Figures tough on best, but last race in California wasn’t among them.
#1 EXCITABLE BOY (3-1)	Earned his top speed figure but couldn’t reach the 3-to-5 winner.
#6 TALKIN PHAROAH (2-1)	Two wire-to-wire wins, two near misses in last four longer sprints.
Race Summary	HEY BROTHER makes his first start for Jacobson after a cross-country journey. He was eased when last seen at Santa Anita, prepped at Belmont, now shows up here in an ideal spot to stalk and pounce on a lively pace. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2024, 07:48 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) /.50 Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $9,500 • Post: 5:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 7, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MY MAN FLINTSTONE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the d istance/surface. GLENN'S JUMPER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. VERB: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ASPEN CLUB: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. STOMPING HO TROD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	MY MAN FLINTSTONE	7/2	6/1
6	GLENN'S JUMPER	5/2	6/1
8	VERB	5/1	7/1
3	ASPEN CLUB	8/1	8/1
7	STOMPING HOTROD	9/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	GLENN'S JUMPER	6	5/2	Front-runner	85	78	87.0	64.8	57.3
2	MY MAN FLINTSTONE	2	7/2	Front-runner	91	81	74.0	69.4	62.4
7	STOMPING HOTROD	7	9/2	Front-runner	86	71	61.0	69.4	61.9
1	DOUBLE TRAP	1	10/1	Trailer	78	70	28.8	63.4	47.4
8	VERB	8	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	89	76	53.0	70.4	66.9
4	FOREVER COOL	4	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	84	81	40.0	70.6	61.6
3	ASPEN CLUB	3	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	84	77	32.6	72.4	67.4
5	SUEZ	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	79	50.2	66.4	54.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2024, 07:49 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race 1	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / $1 Double / .50 Pick 3 .50 EARLY Pick 5 (15% takeout)
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 12:30
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 7, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 7, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JUNE 7, 2024 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $6,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. VIKING QUEEN is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * VIKING QUEEN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the hi ghest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	VIKING QUEEN	9/2	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	VIKING QUEEN	4	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	77	68	68.0	67.6	62.6
6	HIGHTIME VALENTINE	6	5/2	Stalker	71	72	66.1	50.6	43.1
1	CHLOE ROSE	1	9/5	Stalker	78	66	57.2	60.6	57.1
2	MURUMBI	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	67	64	57.2	59.4	53.4
3	LUCKY LORRAINE	3	8/1	Trailer	69	57	52.2	54.0	44.5
5	LIL ANNIE ROSE	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	59	52.1	52.1	42.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2024, 07:49 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $33900 Class Rating: 54

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO FOALS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SWAYBACK MOBIL 3/1
# 6 BUMPKIN 4/1
# 3 VERNON'S BEST 12/1

SWAYBACK MOBIL is the strongest bet in this race. Highly ranked earnings per start at the distance/surface in this field. BUMPKIN - The average Equibase class rating of 45 makes this entrant hard to beat. If you look closely, this one has some longshot potential. VERNON'S BEST - With a strong jockey who has won at a very good 16 percent clip over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top picks.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2024, 07:49 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #2 - Post: 6:14pm - SO - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#6 LILTONYTWOPHONES (ML=9/2)
#4 DIAMOND HEIST (ML=6/1)
#7 GAME SEVEN (ML=7/2)
#5 EDDIE W (ML=4/1)

LILTONYTWOPHONES - Beato and Moreno partnered with one another are a railbird's friend. Moreno drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more data to believe this one has a good chance at this level. Look at this pattern of improvement. 67/80/87 are the last 3 speed ratings. DIAMOND HEIST - You always have to be on the watch for profit making jockey/conditioner tandems; we have an instance right here. Getting a weight break of 5 pounds from last race at Laurel on March 22nd. Should help in this race. GAME SEVEN - Have to like the way Solis has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Equine is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. EDDIE W - The rider/trainer tandem of Rangel and Aristone has a strong ROI together. Rangel and his horse make quite a duet. Together they've been winning at a clip of 50 percent.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ROCKET DRAGON (ML=2/1), #2 CHARLIE SHOWTIME (ML=6/1),

ROCKET DRAGON - I don't normally play a morning-line choice that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. CHARLIE SHOWTIME - This gelding raced well above average on Jul 1st finishing first, but hasn't even visited the track since then. Not really a good sign. Doubtful that the speed figure he earned on Jul 1st will hold up in this contest.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - EDDIE W - This gelding is stepping up with each affair. He has shown a notable points increase in his speed ratings over his last two races.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 LILTONYTWOPHONES is the play if we get odds of 9/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2024, 07:49 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tillamook County Fair

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 69

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 FOOLISH TO DECEIVE 4/1
# 2 ROYAL JESTER 10/1
# 4 HASHTAG BAE 9/2

FOOLISH TO DECEIVE looks very strong to best this field. Will almost certainly compete solidly in the pace contest which bodes well with this group of horses. Had one of the strongest speed figs of this group in his last contest. Crystal has one of the best winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. ROYAL JESTER - Highly ranked earnings per start at the distance/surface in this bunch. This racer could surprise this field of horses at a big price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2024, 07:50 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2 - Post: 3:27pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#6 MICHAELSHATRICK (ML=6/1)

MICHAELSHATRICK - A solid handicapping angle is first time Lasix. Barron gives it to this one for this contest. I think that the addition of the 'hood' today will keep his mind on the race at hand.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 REIGERT GIRLS (ML=2/1), #4 CHEERFUL TROUT (ML=3/1), #3 CROWNING PRINCE (ML=4/1),

REIGERT GIRLS - I don't normally play a probable favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last few weeks. CHEERFUL TROUT - Hard to keep stabbing at this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. Unlikely that the speed figure she earned on July 31st will be enough in this affair. CROWNING PRINCE - Finished sixth last time out of the box. Would have to move up to hit the board in today's race. No favorable outcomes for this pony in a short distance race over the last two months tells me that this gelding is in a very difficult situation

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 MICHAELSHATRICK to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None