Thursday 8/8/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:36 AM

Al Cimaglia:

August 8, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Race 12

3-Bettor Than Spring (8-1)-
5-Machdavid (7/2)-
10-Big Wheels A (3-1)-

Race 13

3-Buzzsaw Russ (5/2)-
6-Rocknroll Runa A (7/2)-
7-Coach Stefanos (4-1)-

Race 14

1-Angel Hill (2-1)-

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:38 AM

Del Mar Scouting Report: August 8-11, 2024

August 6, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Key Races

Friday | Graduation Stakes (Cal-bred 2yo sprint)

Saturday | G2 Yellow Ribbon (f/m turf route), G3 Sorrento (2yo filly sprint)

Sunday | G3 Best Pal (2yo sprint)

Horsepower

Friday: Everett Nevin Stakes 2-3 finishers R Heisman and Timty (R7 Graduation Stakes).

Saturday: G1 Del Mar Oaks & G1 Gamely winner Anisette (probable for G2 Yellow Ribbon, draws Wed); Debutante Stakes winner Vodka With a Twist, Prairie Gold Juvenile winner White Sands (probable for G3 Sorrento, draws Wed.)

Sunday: Impressive Del Mar debut winner Getaway Car (possible for G3 Best Pal, draws Thurs)

Extra Incentives

Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites underperformed last week at 11 for 38 (29%) after a week 24% showing the prior week.

-- Jockey Juan Hernandez dominated the riders with 7 wins (33%, + ROI) and was 4-for-9 aboard favorites. Reylu Gutierrez had a solid, 3-win week (21%, + ROI), while Kyle Frey slumped through a 1-for-29 week.

-- Trainer John Sadler exits a huge week at 10: 4-2-2 and flashing a $2.11 ROI for every $1 bet. Six trainers were next up with 2 wins on the week, notably Antonio Garcia (33%, + ROI), Jeff Mullins (29%, + ROI) and Tim McCanna (67%, + ROI).

-- First-time starters bet to favoritism are 8: 4-2-0 at the current meet. Also note that 4 of the 9 first-time starters to win races at the meet have been 8-1 odds or more.

-- Trainer Phil D’Amato’s barn has struggled mightily on turf at the current meet, going 4-for-45 (9% wins, 24% in-the-money, $0.36 ROI for every $1 bet).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:38 AM

Saratoga Scouting Report: August 7-11, 2024

August 5, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Key Races

Wednesday | G1 Kiser Memorial (steeplechase), Johnstone Mile (NYB, f/m dirt route)

Thursday | John Morrissey (NYB dirt sprint)

Friday | Evan Shipman (NYB dirt mile), Union Avenue (NYB f/m dirt sprint)

Saturday | G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational (3yo turf route), G1 Fourstardave (turf mile), G2 Troy (turf sprint), G2 Saratoga Special (2yo dirt sprint), Galway (3yo filly turf sprint)

Sunday | Mahony (3yo turf sprint)

Horsepower

Thursday | Affirmed Success winner Rotknee (R3 Morrissey Stakes), ’23 G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational winner Aspen Grove (R5 ALW)

Friday | Commentator winner Drake’s Passage (R2 Evan Shipman Stakes), Dancing Renee winner Kant Hurry Love (R8 Union Avenue Stakes), G3 Eatontown winner Tax Implications & ’23 Gazelle winner Promiseher America (R9 ALW)

Saturday | G1 Belmont Derby winner Trikari, ’23 G1 summer winner Carson’s Run (R6 Saratoga Derby Invitational); G1 Jaipur winner and world record-setter Cogburn, ’23 G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint runner-up Big Invasion (R9 Troy Stakes); ’23 G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Master of the Seas, G3 Kelso winner Carl Spackler, G2 Wise Dan winner Ottoman Fleet (R10 Fourstardave Stakes); G3 Quick Call winner Star of Mystery (R12 Galway Stakes.

Extra Incentives

Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites were 19 for 49 last week (39%), solidly stronger than previous weeks at the meeting.

-- Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was top pilot last week with 7 wins (22%) and a slight flat-bet ROI profit. Junior Alvarado not only won the G1 Whitney, but had 5 wins (33%, + ROI). Other top riders were Dylan Davis (4 wins, 24%, + ROI) and Jose Lezcano (4 wins, 31%, + ROI).

-- Chad Brown paced all trainers once again last week (6 wins, 29%, + ROI), but Saffie Joseph Jr. was highly effective with about half the number of starters (4 wins, 36%, + ROI). Mike Maker had a solid week (3 wins, 23%, + ROI), while John Kimmel went 2-for-3 with precision strikes.

-- 4 trainers have won 3 races for 2-year-olds so far this meet: Mark Casse (3-11), Mike Maker (3-9), Saffie Joseph Jr. (3-3), Chad Brown (3-12).

-- Only 14 of 49 winners last week had been away more than 5 weeks (35 days) since their previous start, putting an emphasis on current form as the meet deepens.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:39 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Belterra Park - Race #5

#6 Wind Twist	Think he can be tough here while getting a perfect tracking trip in a race without much serious speed. Reliable form fits well today, and he might be a mildly playable price as the second choice behind the guy who beat him the last two times around.
#2 Authoritarian	He has been extremely tough over this turf course in the past, and he's riding a huge winning streak locally. Forward player should be right there with the top choice throughout. Easy to like.
#7 County Court	He showed a little life last out at 95/1 when getting on the turf again, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him land a share with this group today if he can bring something similar. Think you can look around a little bit once you get past the top two.
Race Summary	Wind Twist and Authoritarian look like the clear two in this spot, but the former should offer a better number while trying to flip a couple recent decisions between the two of them.

Belterra Park - Race #7

#3 Arella Star	She's never east to trust late, but she's bringing decent pace into a spot with only one other serious speed horse, and I think this one might have a bit sharper early burn. She should stack up well with the locals while trying the boys.
#4 Blazing Burroughs	He has been showing better early speed in those recent starts, and a similar trip should leave him in a good spot to prompt the top choice the entire way. Wouldn't be a shock based on the race shape.
#5 The Queens Jules	He's probably a good fit with these, but I have a mild worry about the fact that he doesn't typically have a great record of getting past horses late and could get one-paced in the lane at an unexciting price.
Race Summary	Arella Star and Blazing Burroughs should be the early players here, but I think Arella has some appeal if she can shake clear of that one on the turn. The Queens Jules should get the right setup in behind them.

Belterra Park - Race #8

#4 Eye Brow	Firster goes from the same barn as the other debuter drawn out wide, so get a look at them both on the tote and track ahead of this. The works aren't snappy on paper, but there is no serious pace lined up, so I wonder if one of this barn's first-timers will take an aggressive shot for the front and try to steal this.
#1 American Silver	He has proven a good fit at this level in the past, and he at least has some ability to get past horses late. Better stuff keeps him in the mix with low confidence.
#2 Mor Jazz	This is a much easier spot than he has seen so far, but the form on his page doesn't provide a whole lot of confidence that he's going to wake up enough to score here. That said, he has shown some chasing pace against better, so maybe he attacks this cheaper group early on the cutback?
Race Summary	Eye Brow has some appeal as a fresh face in a race with a murky pace flow with no committed speed lined up. Would love to see them try to have a go at a midrange price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:39 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #1

#6 KRYPTO GAINS (4-1)	Gets ample pace flow on cutback to shorter sprint, gets nod in weak field.
#4 TOGA (7-2)	Blew clear lead at 5-1/2F against the boys, getting ‘weary’ at the eighth pole.
#3 PRACTICAL GIZMO (12-1)	Awakened in latest at 70-1, can rally into gimmick wagers.
Race Summary	KRYPTO GAINS gained late to finish third in a pair of longer sprints at this level. She should have plenty of pace to rally into and looms a good value play in a field that is a combined 8-for-108. Bet to win and place.

Woodbine - Race #2

#3 ZAFEATHER (6-1)	Lightly-raced 5yo is consistent and once handled this distance well at Woodbine.
#5 BEQUIA (4-5)	Demolished nw-2 types, earning odds-on favoritism with big speed figure.
#4 ENDORPHIN RUSH (12-1)	Gets in light, should sit good stalking trip, price attached.
Race Summary	ZAFEATHER pressed the pace 4-wide and tired off an 8-month layoff, then chased a pair of short-priced favorites and ran third again in a long sprint at Fort Erie. She doesn’t race often but has finished in the money in 8 of her last 10 starts and has some good Woodbine route races to summon. Bet to win and place and play a 3-4-5 exacta box.

Woodbine - Race #3

#1 MEXICOFFEE (6-1)	Can carry his speed a long way in first long sprint try and second start locally.
#2 GOOD SOLDIER (7-2)	Starts fresh, switches pilots, shortens up, fits well on best off the claim.
#4 FASCINATION STREET (3-1)	Saved ground tracking duel, ‘powered’ clear to maiden win at 5-1/2F.
Race Summary	MEXICOFFEE led and lost three consecutive photo-finishes as a gelding before he arrived five months later at Woodbine for a new barn. He raced up close early but gave way to a trio of closers who swept the money spots. He will take some catching from the rail, but the distance is the question. Bet to win and place and play 1-2 and 1-4 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Retama Park
PURCHASE

Retama Park - Race 5	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Double (Races 5-6)(12% Takeout) Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)(12% Takeout)(.50 Cent Minimum)
Claiming $7,500 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $14,500 • Post: 8:03P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ADDY GIRL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BLINDING LIGHTS B: Horse has the highest average Equib ase Class Rating at the distance/surface. THISVALENTINESFAMOUS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). THANK KVIN: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	ADDY GIRL	6/1	5/1
3	BLINDING LIGHTS B	20/1	6/1
8	THISVALENTINESFAMOUS	5/1	7/1
9	THANK KVIN	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MISTER CASH OUT	1	8/1	Average	60	59	5.1	0.0	0.0
2	JL JUANITA	2	7/2	Average	64	59	4.7	0.0	0.0
3	BLINDING LIGHTS B	3	20/1	Slow	67	70	7.4	0.0	0.0
4	DAZED N CONFUSED JS	4	12/1	Slow	52	43	6.5	0.0	0.0
5	DANCE HALL DAN	5	15/1	Average	62	57	5.8	0.0	0.0
6	SHAZOOMS TRES SEIS	6	5/1	Average	69	60	3.8	0.0	0.0
7	ADDY GIRL	7	6/1	Average	73	68	5.8	0.0	0.0
8	THISVALENTINESFAMOUS	8	5/1	Average	75	64	5.0	0.0	0.0
9	THANK KVIN	9	8/1	Average	64	59	4.9	0.0	0.0
10	JESSSICA MOON	10	10/1	Slow	55	60	6.4	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 87 • Purse: $43,520 • Post: 3:12P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * ADALENE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ha s run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SO FAR SO GOOD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TAKER BACK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	ADALENE	8/5	7/2
6	SO FAR SO GOOD	9/2	9/2
4	TAKER BACK	5/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	TAKER BACK	4	5/1	Front-runner	75	73	87.8	60.2	52.7
2	ADALENE	2	8/5	Front-runner	76	85	80.8	67.2	61.7
7	ELLA ELIZABETH	7	8/1	Front-runner	71	68	80.2	48.0	41.5
6	SO FAR SO GOOD	6	9/2	Front-runner	80	71	75.9	65.8	61.8
1	MISS SUSAN B	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	53	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: TENNESSEEHONEYBEE (6/1) [Jockey: Bealmear Joseph C - Trainer: Hughes Byron G], TEMPORARILYFOREVER (4/1) [Jockey: Perez Eduardo E - Trainer: Gorham Robert M].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:40 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $17,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 ATHENS MOON 12/1
# 7 CAJUN AMI 15/1
# 6 MO SATURDAYS 3/1

ATHENS MOON is the most favorable wager in this affair especially at a long price. With a solid 86 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. This colt has a strong win percentage in turf route races. MO SATURDAYS - He has earned solid figs under today's conditions and ought to fare well against this group of horses in this race. Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in turf route races in this lot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Saratoga - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $90,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#5 BUBBE DEAREST (ML=6/1)

BUBBE DEAREST - Castillo rode this horse for the first time last time out and comes right back today. Don't often see a favorable return on investment like +52. This rider/trainer pair has done well together over the last twelve months. This filly was overlooked in the betting when she made her debut Jul 17th. Look for another big effort today. Maker brings her right back. I propose you stick with this live filly. I like this filly. Has the highest earnings per start in here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BLAKELY'S WISH (ML=2/1), #2 ROUTE SENSATION (ML=5/2), #4 ENDLESS VOW (ML=9/2),

BLAKELY'S WISH - If she goes off anywhere close to the morning line of 2/1, I'll have to pass. ROUTE SENSATION - In the last affair this vulnerable equine finished third. Doesn't look promising for her chances today. Finished third in her most recent race with a common speed figure. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group. ENDLESS VOW - Morning line odds of 9/2 make this thoroughbred a pass by my criteria.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 BUBBE DEAREST on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 49

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 23 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 NORAH V. 7/2
# 6 PUNTO CRUCIAL 4/1
# 1 CULTIVADORA 2/1

I think NORAH V. is a solid choice. Robles has been scorching the last month, winning at a nifty 16 percent rate. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this one a key contender. Bettors ought to take a good look at this one as this filly has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group. PUNTO CRUCIAL - Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. CULTIVADORA - Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the midpoint of the outing. This horse has been consistently running well recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:35pm - Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,900 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#6 HOWLING TIME (ML=7/2)
#2 BIG TRUCK (ML=9/2)
#3 ARELLA STAR (ML=6/1)

HOWLING TIME - Ranks at the top in earnings per race. A dominant performance right here can increase that total. Last out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. A good sign he can close well, and should be right there at the finish line in this race. BIG TRUCK - Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Smith enters him at a similar class today. I'd expect an improved performance. ARELLA STAR - Likes to go to the front and the fact that today is a shorter distance should be beneficial. Ran last time around the track against much better company at Tampa Bay Downs. The move down the ladder based on class should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 THE QUEENS JULES (ML=5/2), #1 ROBO MAN (ML=4/1), #4 BLAZING BURROUGHS (ML=5/1),

THE QUEENS JULES - The probable favorite is shaky here with the lack of works. ROBO MAN - Awfully hard to play this pony when he hasn't been showing any signs of readiness of late. BLAZING BURROUGHS - Finished first in his most recent race with a disappointing speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 HOWLING TIME on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass