Saturday 8/10/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2024, 06:37 AM

Race of the Week: Del Mar's Yellow Ribbon | Saturday

August 7, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
We walked away from the West Virginia Derby in this space last week with another $430 in the coffer, continuing a big 2024 Race of the Week performance. Let's head west to Del Mar this Saturday if for no other reason than the uncertain weather that plagues the east. The Yellow Ribbon, inaugurated in 1945 and formerly known as the Palomar Handicap, is a true handicap in that the racing secretary sets the weight assignments. There's a 9-pound spread from high (126) to low (117). The Yellow Ribbon is Race 8 on a card that also includes 2-year-old stakes fillies in the Grade 3 Sorrento, a local prep toward the Del Mar Debutante.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner ANISETTE has kept the strongest company lines and has the class edge. BELLABEL is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. UNCORKED is a Grade 3 winner.

Pace:
BELLABEL should control the pace in a short field of 6 and take them as far as she can go. EVER SMART figures to be closest in pursuit, but hasn't been one capable of making the front. Deep closers will have their work cut out.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-UNCORKED: First of 3 trainees in the lineup for a Phil D'Amato barn that has struggled at 4-for-45 on the turf so far this Del Mar season coming into the racing week. That's out of the norm, but can't be overlooked. As promising as the ex-Marylander looked in winning the Grade 3 Royal Heroine in her unveiling two starts back for the new trainer, she was equally disappointed in the follow-up try in the Grade 1 Gamely behind rematched rival Anisette. Didn't work well for this on what I was able to view at XBTV.

#2-ANISETTE: Deserving, strong favorite carries 126 pounds and will spot 6-9 to her rivals as she looks for a third Del Mar stakes win in as many tries. She's capable of her closing kick in races with or without pace set-ups, and that's a quality trait not many have. Jockey Umberto Rispoli successfully guided winning favorites in the Yellow Ribbon the past 2 years (Going Global, Closing Remarks) and is winning a sharp 25% on grass so far this meeting. Tough to argue against her.

#3-FUENTE OVEJUNA: Trainer Brendan Walsh makes a Kentucky raid for the second straight week in a Del Mar headliner and will try to improve on Pretty Mishievous' disappointing fifth-place finish in last Saturday's Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch. Recent stakes winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis was a no-threat fourth in Santa Anita's Grade 3 Royal Heroine behind Uncorked in a similar trip and test in April. Mare ran ninth in a 2022 Del Mar turf allowance in her only local attempt when previously with the Leonard Powel barn.

#4-LUCKY GIRL: Worked in company on the turf at Del Mar with D'Amato barnmate Uncorked on July 28 and this one looked like the far superior animal that morning. Followed that up with a 5F move vs. stablemate Bellabel a week later in which she couldn't cut into any of the margin whatsoever when outworked. Difficult to overlook a 9: 0-0-0 record in graded stakes throughout her career and not surmise she's a cut below this level. Fourth in this race a year ago and will be hard-pressed to improve upon that. Jockey Hector Berrios is riding very strong early in the Del Mar stand (to her plus side).

#5-BELLABEL: Potential lone speed in the Yellow Ribbon, she's been working best of the D'Amato trio. This is the best chance to upset Anisette and getting a 6-pound break will help the cause to some degree. The downside is that all 4 wins have come at a flat mile, so the extra 110 yards tilt the favor back to Anisette. She's won the San Clemente and was a clear second in the Del Mar Oaks in her 2 previous tries over the course, so there's expectation of her improving off her spring efforts at Santa Anita.

#6-EVER SMART: Two-time Yellow Ribbon winner Mike Smith (2010, '15) picks up the mount here for veteran trainer Neil Drysdale. While this 7-year-old is 6: 0-1-1 in stakes bids and 5: 0-0-0 on the turf at Del Mar, there's a bit to like here. She should get a comfortable trip near the front and has an old-school training patter of going sprint-to-route while making her second start off the layoff.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ANISETTE has 9 straight exacta finishes and loves this course.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
EVER SMART has a Hall of Fame jockey-trainer combo, gets in 9 pounds less than the favorite and should get an easy trip forwardly placed.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$75 exacta ANISETTE over BELLABEL. $25 exacta ANISETTE over EVER SMART.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 09:33 AM

Scott Shapiro: Colonial's Arlington Million Day late Pick 4

August 10, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Tropical Storm Debby has forced racing officials at Colonial Downs to move the Arlington Million Day, but the good news is it was rescheduled just one day later.

The 12-race Sunday card in Virginia features a late Pick 4 sequence over the last four races that includes the Secretariat (G2), Beverly D. (G2), and Million (G1) and you guessed it, another promotion at XpressBet and 1/ST Bet to support the promo. This time it is a Hit & Split for 2M rewards points. Just remember to register to become eligible.

Here are my thoughts on a sequence that does not appear to have a ton of upside for a huge payout, so I will go thinner and attempt to hit it multiple times.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 9: Secretariat (G2)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Briiliant Bertie
Backups: 9 Trikari

Forecast: The sequence kicks off with this Grade 2 event for three-year-olds at one-mile and there should be an honest pace given the presence of #3 Bear River and #8 Mattingly amongst others. This bodes well for the 5-2-morning line favorite, #1 Brilliant Berti. The Noble Mission colt has rattled off three straight wins after an off the board finish to kick off his career. He draws favorably to the inside and attracts the services of Frankie Dettori.

#9 Trikari brings the strongest resume into the Secretariat with wins already in the American Turf (G2) and most recently the Belmont Derby (G1). The Oscar Performance colt clearly has a nose for the wire and is hard to knock, but he could get caught wide much of the journey being drawn to the far outside in his first start over the Colonial lawn.

Race 10: Beverly D. (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6 Moira
Backups: 4 Fev Rover

Forecast: This year’s Beverly D appears to be a two-horse race between last year’s champion #4 Fev Rover and the Ontario-bred #6 Moira. Fev Rover has been freshened up by trainer Mark Casse after a runner-up effort at odds on in the Nassau (G2), another race she won last year. The 6YO mare is at her best when on or right off the lead, but with #1 Libban entered, she may be a further off the pace. Libban has flashed tactical speed regularly in much shorter races. Seemingly, her only chance of springing the upset is to take the field gate-to-wire, so I expect jockey Edgard Zayas to be aggressive early. This is more than likely to set things up for Moira.

Moira heads into her fifteenth career start having earned over $1.5M for trainer Kevin Attard. The Ghostzapper mare has failed to cross the wire first in three consecutive races but those were all against Grade 1 competition where she still finished in the money. Look for Jose Ortiz to come with a strong late run good enough to nail last year’s winner at the wire.

Race 11: Arlington Million (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Integration
Backups: None

Forecast: The pace should be honest in this year’s Million given the presence of #3 Sugoi and #6 Talk of the Nation. This bodes well for the top three choices on the morning line, including 8-5- favorite #4 Nations Pride. The Godolphin homebred has won 9 of 17 overall and over $2.8M in his career but has failed to get to the wire first so far in 2024. It would be far from shocking if Charles Appleby won another Grade 1 turf race in the States but I do prefer the second choice.

#1 Integration heads into the 2024 Arlington Million a perfect 3 for 3 over this turf course, including a win in last years’ Virginia Derby (G3). The Quality Road colt handled the soft going last time out in the Million Preview S, which bodes well for his chances in here given the amount of moisture this course took over the last few days. Kendrick Carmouche should be able to save ground throughout in this one’s second start off the bench.

Race 12:
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 2 Doctor Jeff; 6 Charmed
Backups: 8 Point Liam

Forecast: The Million Day card concludes with a first-level allowance over the lawn. #2 Doctor Jeff is the one to beat coming in off a pair of efforts at Laurel Park for high-percentage conditioner, Kieron Magee. The Street Boss gelding has the speed to make the lead or sit just off the pace from his inside draw. He should find the wire first for the fifth time in his career. #6 Charmed also makes sense coming in off a neck defeat at Laurel. He makes his third start off the layoff and has hit the board in both starts over this turf course.

#8 Point Liam is worth including as a backup. The Liam’s Map gelding has been competing against similar at Monmouth Park for trainer Terri Pompay. He ran well in both starts over this course last year and should be finishing well under Trevor McCarthy.
Good luck on Milion Day!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 09:35 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park All Stakes Pick 4 Analysis

August 10, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a loaded 15-race card. The headliner goes in Race 11, the $300,000 Carl Milstein Memorial. The All Stakes $1.00 Pick 4 starts in Race 8. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (8:34 PM EST)

2-It's Academic (3/5)-The Burke trainee has lost a lot off his fastball but has faced an entirely different level of competition. Has hit the board in 6 of 8 at Nfld, took 4 pictures and set a track mark of 151.4 in 2023. Drawing the 2-hole cinches the 3/5 morning line, should win but can't completely trust.
6-Refined (4-1)-Won't be the only one leaving to get the pocket behind the morning line choice. But if Dan Noble times the gate right and this mare brings her "A" game she will get a seat near the top of the stack. Then that puts her in play to upset the choice at a square price.

Race 9 (8:56 PM EST)-

2-Racing Rampage (3-1)-The 4-year-old has been hotter than hot at Yonkers since joining the Travis Alexander barn. Can win on the point or coming off cover and in my view is the one to beat. Has had some past success at Nfld hitting the board in 3 of 4 with 2 pictures. Set a Nfld mark as a 2-year-old of 151.2 and now is at the top of its game. The race probably goes through the 2nd program chalk and it's doubtful the 3-1 morning line holds up.
9-Nashing Hill (8-1)-Will look to the Steve Carter pupil with Brett Miller steering to have a shot at downing the 2 programs chalks (5-2). Offers some value and could get a decent early seat as #2 and Aaron Merriman on #1 could leave hard. The 5-year-old can win off a stalking trip if the fractions are hot and the Carter-Miller combo posts 20% winners.

Race 10 (9:18 PM EST)

3-Odds On Platinum (5/2)-The Ian Moore pupil has been in sharp form and won on the 5/8's at RidC back on 6-23. Looks like the main player but does make its Nfld debut. My take is the connections don't roll into town from Ontario if they were concerned about the turns.
6-Wasted On You (4-1)-This is a nice filly who is in good from and has 1 second place finish in 2 starts at Nfld. Will use as an upset play over the 8-Seaside Diva who tries Lasix for the 1st time. Should be blasting out hard, could get the top and not look back.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Timeisonmyside (6-1)-Thestable filly outraced his odds in both the Adios Elimination and in the Final. The Captain Crunch 3-year-old should be good with the Northfield surface in his 1st start there and has enough gate speed to be forwardly placed. Anthony MacDonald will be aggressive, could take charge early and a pocket ride could also work well.
2-Wish You Well (5/2)-Comes off a hard charging 2nd place finish in the Adios and didn't get the best of trips. David Miller is back between the pipes on the Nifty Norman entry. Probably doesn't get stuck inside on the rail down the lane versus a well-rated leader this time.
7-Sweet Beach Life (8-1)-The Messenger winner hasn't clicked in either Adios race, both trips didn't work. But with a sharp steer Matt Kakaley can catch the speed as this race could set-up with some hot fractions. Does need things to fall into place but has better to offer than has shown recently. Relying on the Alexander pupil taking to the oval and should offer a big price.

$1.00 Pick 4

2,6/2,9/3,6/1,2,7
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 09:35 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #5

#5 White Sands	She's one of a couple in here with a stakes win on their page, but neither of them are likely to be the choice today. She has been way too good for a winless Belterra group and that Prairie Stakes bunch, and I wonder if she has the right draw to attack from the outside in a race where everything on the page is pace.
#1 Nooni	She drilled four others at 20 cents on the dollar in her debut at Santa Anita in June, and while there is an obvious bit of talent, she's probably going to have to run this group off their feet from the fence with a few really capable pace players stacked up outside of her.
#4 Vodka With a Twist	She strikes me as one of the more likely ones to be able to rate just a bit behind the battling pace players, and she looked good when easily landing that Churchill stakes spot last out.
Race Summary	White Sands is a question mark on overall class, but so are the rest of them at this point. Nooni will take cash, but I also fear she's going to take the worst of it the entire way.

Del Mar - Race #8

#2 Anisette	Nothing clever from me in here -- she's the realest of real deals and should be able to outkick this compact bunch again today. The clear one to beat at a short price...think you take the free space and move along.
#3 Fuente Ovejuna	She's light on overall class, but her last was decent, and she has a late kick that occasionally stacks up. Think she's got her hands full with the top choice, but she's in the mix for a piece.
#5 Bellabel	She's at least got a bit of pace in her corner, so she's going to have the jump on the top choice, but I can't see her turning away that one's late charge. The pace play if there is one.
Race Summary	Anisette is a three-time Grade I winner meeting a group that includes only one horse with even a Grade I placing on her page, so this one feels like it's pretty cut and dry as she gets back over a course she loves.

Del Mar - Race #10

#7 Not a Sinner	She has had her share of chances already and seems perfectly happy settling for underneath shares, but I think she's going to get towed into the pace in a way that gives her every chance to land this. Better price today?
#6 Miracle Ball	She's bringing what looks like a forward series of works for a team that landed one in a similar spot recently. Price might not be all that appealing, but it wouldn't be a shock for her to be live.
#1 Queen Maxima	Rail draw could be tricky in a dash like this, but she's another who races for a team that has had some success with this kind here over the last year. Take a look at her on the tote and track.
Race Summary	Not a Sinner might offer something a touch better than the 8/5 and 7/5 she raced at in her last two, and she should be in line for a perfect trip maybe just in behind the quicker players early.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 09:35 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Emerald Downs - Race #1

#4 MIST OONA B (7-2)	Couldn’t reach pace-setting fave, runs well in second start after time away.
#5 CONFIDENCE BUILDER (3-1)	Close-up to stretch, third in pair of 6-1/2F sprints, claimed both times.
#6 NOMI LACKEE (2-1)	Won twice on front end for $5,000 in last two months, reunited with Reyes.
Race Summary	MIST OONA B willingly pursued the winning favorite and finished second at 6F off a 10-month layoff. Her previous two victories were in second starts off a layoff. Bet to win and place.

Emerald Downs - Race #2

#6 DEVIL D’ORO (1-1)	Meets weak field, figures tough in current form for high-percentage barn.
#1 POCKET KNIFE (5-1)	Three seconds in last six starts at Emerald, the latest at one mile, draws rail.
#2 MONEY IS TIME (8-1)	Rallied to within a length of ‘Devil’ two starts back, changes riders.
Race Summary	DEVIL D’ORO followed the 4-wide move of the 5-to-2 winner and finished well for second on the cutback to a sprint. She set the pace as the favorite but got caught by a 40-1 shot in the race prior at today’s distance. She will have no excuse in this field. Make a flat win bet and play 6-1 and 6-2 exactas.

Emerald Downs - Race #5

#5 DANSMETOTHENDOFLOV (7-2)	Proven at distance, runs for Lopez, good value play.
#4 DON’T TELL HYDEE (2-1	Stepped up off re-claim, caught late by closest pursuer.
#3 GOLD COAST GIRL (3-1)	Steady sprint form at Emerald, last no true, expect better.
Race Summary	DANSMETOTHENDOFLOV was out-kicked for the win in a $5,000 sprint, but she’s 5-for-11 at today’s distance and makes her third start for this barn since arriving from Turf Paradise. She should top $100k in earnings on the main track, just hoping it’s in victory. Bet to win and place and play a 5-ALL exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 01:45 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Monmouth Park
PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race 3	Win, Place and Show Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta Daily Double (Races 3-4)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $65,625 • Post: 1:51P
FOR REGISTERED NEW JERSEY BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ISLAND SPIRIT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a la yoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DONT ROCK THE BOAT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surfa ce. SEE THE TRUTH: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. POST COMMAND: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/s urface.
3	ISLAND SPIRIT	4/1	4/1
2	DONT ROCK THE BOAT	7/2	5/1
6	SEE THE TRUTH	5/2	7/1
5	POST COMMAND	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ISLAND SPIRIT	3	4/1	Front-runner	73	68	67.6	56.8	51.8
6	SEE THE TRUTH	6	5/2	Front-runner	71	65	57.5	50.9	43.4
2	DONT ROCK THE BOAT	2	7/2	Stalker	75	61	63.7	61.0	54.0
4	FULLY COMMITTED	4	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	32.2	50.5	39.5
5	POST COMMAND	5	3/1	Trailer	73	62	34.6	64.2	58.7
8	LECANTO	8	8/1	Trailer	0	0	21.6	44.2	34.2
1	T V MAN	1	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	26.9	33.9	25.4
7	I NEVER SAY NEVER	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	25.0	36.7	21.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 01:46 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park
PURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 3	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 3-4) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3-5 • CR: 74 • Purse: $47,000 • Post: 1:22P
(RAIL AT 52 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. ELON is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ELON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TAKETHEFIFTH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L " designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MO JACKSON: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts).
8	ELON	5/2	3/1
5	TAKETHEFIFTH	4/1	5/1
3	MO JACKSON	7/5	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	BIG AMADEUS	7	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	93.9	56.9	50.9
6	MISTER MITCH	6	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	76	49	70.4	52.3	45.3
8	ELON	8	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	75	70	72.8	67.9	64.4
5	TAKETHEFIFTH	5	4/1	Trailer	77	64	59.4	68.8	65.3
2	KARMA'S INTHEHOUSE	2	15/1	Trailer	0	0	0.0	43.6	33.6

Unknown Running Style: GENERAL AGENT (6/5) [Jockey: Rodriguez Jaime - Trainer: Clement Christophe], MO JACKSON (7/5) [Jockey: Rodriguez Jaime - Trainer: Feliciano Jr B M], BLUE REGALIA (12/1) [Jockey: Delgado Alberto - Trainer: White Alexandra S].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 01:46 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tillamook County Fair

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SA - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 83

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 SPEEDY TOM 2/1
# 4 MATTAWA N THAT 5/2
# 3 ANTICIPATED 4/1

SPEEDY TOM looks very good to best this field. Has competitive speed figures and has to be considered for a bet here. Has a solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me think about this gelding. He looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. MATTAWA N THAT - He has to be given a chance given the formidable speed numbers. Has very strong front-end speed and should fare soundly versus this field. ANTICIPATED - This gelding has a very good winning percentage in dirt sprint races. Could go off at a solid price and has some positive attributes going for him.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 01:46 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #4 - Post: 7:16pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,700 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#2 TOFFEE (ML=4/1)
#1 CHOJO (ML=8/5)
#5 PRETTYWITTYANDWISE (ML=2/1)

TOFFEE - This mare should get a perfect trip in this spot. She looks like the only 'stalker' in this clash. This animal is number one in earnings per race entered. She looks strong in today's race. CHOJO - This filly is in nice form. Ran second on July 13th. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. In her last race, this filly showed good zip then fell back before finishing nicely. PRETTYWITTYANDWISE - This filly's last speed fig is strong enough to prove victorious here, I'll play her back again this time. 59-75-77 are last three speed ratings. Improving each time out is something she should do again today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ARRESTED (ML=5/1), #4 STAY FABULOUS (ML=6/1),

ARRESTED - Didn't look so good last time. Probably won't make an impact in today's event. Recorded a common rating last time out in a $20,000 Claiming race on July 13th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that number. STAY FABULOUS - This mount hasn't been coming close at the finish recently. Notched a disappointing speed figure last out in a Starter Allowance race on July 12th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 TOFFEE is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 01:47 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $71000 Class Rating: 73

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 NO MO COOKIES 15/1
# 12 EMMY BLUE 12/1
# 2 LIBERTY QUEEN 30/1

NO MO COOKIES is the strongest wager in this race and is a very strong value bet given the line. The offspring of Mo Town have produced strong figures moving in their first asking, combining for a +62 ROI. Mott has her trained quite well to break rapidly out of the gate. EMMY BLUE - Sire has produced formidable profits with his offspring in their first starts.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 01:47 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Century Mile - Race #11 - Post: 8:45pm - Optional Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,500 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#5 TAKE CHARGE CURLY (ML=8/1)
#4 LATE NIGHT LIVING (ML=5/1)

TAKE CHARGE CURLY - Balgobin rode this entrant for the first time in the last race and comes right back in today's race. Last ran at Century Mile and finished sixth. Reviewing his PP lines, I see he was close at the finish, within 5 of the winner. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races. LATE NIGHT LIVING - This gelding is in superb physical condition right now. Finished third last time around the track and comes back quickly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DR. DAVE (ML=5/2), #2 BRODY'S PAL (ML=7/2), #8 ALL RUN (ML=6/1),

DR. DAVE - This steed hasn't been on the track since Jul 17th. Not even any drills. BRODY'S PAL - Tough to put any money on this gelding on the top end. Likes to end up on the board though. Don't think this questionable contender will do much running in today's race. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. ALL RUN - This thoroughbred hasn't shown very much in the last pair of contests. Not probable for this one to make a winning move with no recent success in a short distance event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 TAKE CHARGE CURLY on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Skip