Sunday 8/11/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2024, 09:34 AM

Scott Shapiro: Sunday's Ellis Park Derby Day Best Bets

August 10, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Last weekend turf racing took center stage at Ellis Park with a number of high-quality preps for upcoming Kentucky Downs stakes events. The headliners this Sunday though will be run over the main track, including the $275,000 Ellis Park Derby conducted over the unique one-mile configuration at the Pea Patch.

Overall, six consecutive stakes races close the Sunday card and to celebrate 1/ST BET and Xpressbet have a no-brainer promotion to register for. It is simple. Bet $150 on the Sunday card at Ellis Park and earn a bonus of $20. Here are a few horses I will be leaning on in the stakes- races:

Race 5: Cowboy Jones S.

#8 Injunction makes his second start off the claim for trainer Doug Cowans after a win in the two-turn Schaefer Memorial at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The son of Skipshot has never been worse than second in three tries over the Ellis Park main track and draws favorably outside the main speed. I like his chances to make it two in a row off the claim for a barn that is red-hot of late winning with 16 of 45 over the last 90 days.

#6 Saudi Crown is the understandable 7-5-morning line favorite in his first start since his disappointing effort in Dubai. He is going to have to work early with plenty of other speed to his inside, but if he is at his best they are running for second. That said, this seems like an odd return spot for last year’s Pennsylvania Derby, so I am willing to take a swing against on top and a small one in exactas keying Injunction with #9 Three Technique and #10 Raise Cain. Both hopefully will benefit from the expected lively early pace.

Plays:
Win 8 (4-1 or higher), Exacta Key Box 8 with 9+10

Race 6: Ellis Park Derby

This year’s Ellis Park Derby did not draw the sexiest group but it did come up relatively wide-open. #1 Who Dey is listed as the 3-1- morning line favorite off of his runner-up effort in the Matt Winn (G3). The Ohio-bred has shown he belongs against open company stakes foes but it feels like he is a much-better one-turn horse. He is vulnerable despite the strongest resume.

I prefer #2 Most Wanted who enters his first stakes race a perfect 2 for 2 for trainer Brad Cox. The half-brother to Life Is Good got off to a late start to his career but was well-meant on debut going off at odds-on in an 11-horse field at Churchill Downs in late June. He delivered in workmanlike fashion in his first start and once again on July 21 when he won by three-quarters of a length over this surface and distance with plenty left in the tank after crossing the finish line. A career best performance seems well within the range of outcomes on Sunday with Florent Geroux back aboard.

Play: Win 2 (3-1 or higher)

Race 9: Audubon Oaks

The loaded Brad Cox barn also sends out 6-5-morning line favorite #1 Tarifa for her first start since a ninth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). The Godolphin homebred rattled off three wins in a row in New Orleans, including back-to-back graded stakes victories in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) but those fields were not as strong as they had been in years’ past. She certainly is the class of the field and won her only start at 7-furlongs back in October of ’23 but I will take a swing against with #6 Mink’s Palace.

Mink’s Palace comes into her first stakes start fresh for trainer Eddie Kenneally after splitting rivals and pulling away late in her first-level allowance victory at Churchill Downs on June 22. The Palace Malice filly has hit the board in all four starts, has plenty of upside still, and should be up close early in a race that is unlikely to see a fast early tempo. Hopefully we get around the 6-1-morning line offering.

Play: Win 6 (4-1 or higher)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2024, 06:58 AM

Jeff Siegel's Whgat You Need to Know - Del Mar - 8/11/24

August 11, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Del Mar 5th Race – Post: 3:58 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 9-Hot Girl Walk.
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Hot Girl Walk tipped her hand in a solid debut performance last month when finishing a willing second in a similar abbreviated main track dash, and not much more will be needed today to earn her diploma. In that race, the C. Gaines-trained 2-year-old overcame a bit of a slow start to move within range approaching the turn and then stayed on with interest while not appearing to be totally cranked up. With that tightener behind her, the daughter of Bodexpress should be able to handle this moderate assignment in a race restricted to California-bred runners. A. Fresu stays aboard, so at 5/2 on the morning line she’ll offer reasonable wagering value.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Del Mar 10th race – Post: 6:28 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 1-Divisible By.
Other Contenders: 4-Dealers Special/

Forecast: Divisible By, at 45-1, stepped forward dramatically in just his second career start when rallying with purpose to be second in a similar turf router for older maidens last month. The speed figure earned represented an 11 point improvement over his first outing – a grass sprint that was nothing more than a “get your feet wet” educational run - so if the N. Drysdale-trained sophomore improves again he should have an excellent chance to break his maiden. Likely to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from his favorable rail post, the son of Divisidero retains M. Smith and projects to settle somewhere in mid-pack before producing his best stuff from the quarter pole home. In a race in which many of these have had several chances without producing a win, this colt, with just two starts, certainly has a higher ceiling and thus at 6-1 on the morning line offers a reasonable gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2024, 06:59 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/11/24

August 11, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Saratoga 6th Race – Post: 3:53 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 4-Trading Strategy.
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Trading Strategy hasn’t been asked for much in the morning but he should be fit enough to graduate at first asking based on the team gate breeze we viewed on video from July 28 over the Spa’s main track. In that drill, the son of Quality Road was always going easily while looking best over his workmate, and based on our watches he probably went several ticks faster than what the official final time (:48 2/5b) gives him credit for. A $600,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, the C. Brown-trained colt lands the stable’s “go-to” jockey F. Prat, and at this seven furlong distance he should be able to assert his superiority in the final stages. He’s listed at 5/2 ln the morning line and offers a gamble at or near that number.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Saratoga 10th race – Post: 6:16 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 7-More Than Looks.
Other Contenders: 6-Ottoman Fleet (GB)

Forecast: It’s hard to guess what condition the turf course will be – we'll assume it won't be firm – but if More Than Looks can grab the surface he should be tough to contain late after wrapping up his sophomore season with a fast finishing performance (sixth but beaten two diminishing lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. With a pair of triple-digit Beyer figures in his last pair of starts, the son of More Than Ready is fast enough on figs to win this year’s edition of the Fourstardave H.-G1 if he's fit, and the work tab certainly provides confidence that he’s ready to pick up where he left off. The barn has sensational stats (27%) with the comebacker angle and the presence of I. Ortiz, Jr. certainly is a plus as well, so at 7/2 on the morning line this 4-year-old colt is worth a confident play on the tote and in the horizontal and vertical exotics.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2024, 07:00 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis

August 11, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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The Red Mile has an 18-race card with the $1.00 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a very low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (6:40 Pm EST)

1-Duration (5-1)-Will toss last, had no shot racing from the back into a slow opening half of .58, but did close in 54.2 with a 26.3 last panel. Could be overlooked at the windows and has more to offer. Needs an efficient trip to take a picture and is in a spot to get one.
2-Looksgoodinloulou (6/5)-Caught a jewel of a trip but exploded down the lane and looked strong crossing the wire. The Burke pupil put in a 25.3 last panel and basically, that was for fun. This race goes through Yanick Gingras who is steering the son of Sweet Lou. Appears to have an edge over the field and a perfect 2 for 2 record is a distinct possibility.

Race 7 (6:59 PM EST)

3-Santa Croce (8-1)-Todd McCarthy should get a seat off the gate and with an effective stalking trip could roll by down the lane. Willing to look for prices in a race without a standout.
5-Calatrava (10-1)-The Takter trainee hasn't faced the same level of competition until the last start. Took command in that race and faded down the lane to finish 5th. Scott Zeron takes the lines and this driver-trainer combo posts 27% winners when they team up. The price is right to use and my take is tonight this filly stays close and then comes off cover.
6-Drawing Rights (7/2)-Dexter Dunn was able to get the filly over the line by a nose versus this kind on 7-30. Will probably be bet down in its 2nd Lex appearance but will respect connections and not let the Ryder pupil bust up the ticket.

Race 8 (7:18 PM EST)

4-Rose (1/1)-Went off at 1/2 in last and drew off by 4 lengths with a 25.4 last panel. Beat 4 from this field on 6-30 and Gingras will have in striking range to win again at odds-on.
7-Faze (7/2)-Left from post 8 and took the long way around in the same race as #4. Cashed a 4th place check, will get some play as Dexter Dunn is in the bike. But will use figuring the price will be fair and should be better with a race over the oval.

Race 9 (7:37 PM EST)

1-Sunny E (2-1)-Going to fade Tim Tetrick on #4 the 3/2 morning line chalk and use Scott Zeron on the rail. Hopefully won't be bet hard and looked fine winning its debut. Beat a couple from this field last week and isn't facing a monster tonight.
5-Perfect World (20-1)-Finished a decent 3rd in a race with a dominant winner. Marcus Miller steers for his father's barn, and should be a large price. This leg feels wide open and this is a chance to add some juice to the sequence if the morning line chalk disappoints.
7-Peacful Journey (7-1)-Raced evenly from the rail in its Red Mile debut. Loses Dexter Dunn as has switched out of the Ryder barn. Makes the 1st start for the Debeck barn, Andy Miller takes a seat, and he can get the job done. Comes back in sequence instead of 20 days and will look for better at a nice price.

$1.00 Early Pick 4

1,2/3,5,6/4,7/1,5,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2024, 07:02 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ellis Park
PURCHASE

Ellis Park - Race 4	Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi-5 / Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / $0.50 Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 102 • Purse: $76,000 • Post: 1:21P
(RAIL AT 10 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ON THE TURF SINCE JUNE 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BERUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS.)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. COUNTERSTRIKE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GLOBAL SENSATION: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. B D VALESKI: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ra ting. HIGHER STANDARD: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
3	ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS	7/2	6/1
13	COUNTERSTRIKE	4/1	6/1
14	GLOBAL SENSATION	6/1	7/1
2	B D VALESKI	9/2	8/1
11	HIGHER STANDARD	10/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
12	FOXTROTANNA	12	8/1	Front-runner	95	85	83.8	84.0	64.0
6	HUNTER JOHN	6	10/1	Front-runner	95	97	65.4	74.9	50.9
5	HEDWIG	5	10/1	Stalker	90	81	94.3	82.4	59.9
13	COUNTERSTRIKE	13	4/1	Stalker	102	96	86.6	92.6	86.6
1	HOW'S UR ATTITUDE	1	15/1	Stalker	96	95	81.0	86.8	73.3
14	GLOBAL SENSATION	14	6/1	Stalker	100	95	76.0	93.8	80.3
10	CHISELER	10	8/1	Stalker	99	87	74.8	92.4	80.9
3	ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	109	103	96.6	88.6	77.6
7	POWERFUL	7	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	103	92	79.5	86.4	66.9
2	B D VALESKI	2	9/2	Trailer	100	96	76.6	90.0	79.0
11	HIGHER STANDARD	11	10/1	Trailer	97	98	74.0	90.9	80.4
15	J. P. RACE	15	10/1	Trailer	91	91	60.6	84.2	65.2
9	ADIOS GARY	9	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	101	94	87.0	82.6	67.6
8	RUNNIN' ROCKET	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	92	90	72.2	75.6	54.6
4	NOT NORMAL	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	102	97	51.2	64.5	47.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2024, 07:02 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oneida County Fair
PURCHASE

Oneida County Fair - Race 2	2nd half Daily Double/ $2 Exacta / $2 Quinella $2 Trifecta ($1 Tri Box)
Stakes • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 76 • Purse: $5,800 • Post: 1:25P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, THOMAS MARKET OVERNIGHT FUTURITY - FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHTS: 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * HIDDEN VERSION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LA IGUANA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Powe r Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. IDAHO JESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (w ithin 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). VF GUNNA GET YA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	HIDDEN VERSION	8/1	5/1
6	LA IGUANA	4/1	5/1
4	IDAHO JESS	3/1	7/1
5	VF GUNNA GET YA	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	HIDDEN VERSION	2	8/1	Average	79	71	5.6	0.0	0.0
3	A LETHAL FAVORITE	3	10/1	Slow	0	0	9.3	0.0	0.0
4	IDAHO JESS	4	3/1	Average	71	74	3.7	0.0	0.0
5	VF GUNNA GET YA	5	6/1	Slow	68	67	6.4	0.0	0.0
6	LA IGUANA	6	4/1	Average	80	74	4.3	0.0	0.0
7	CHASE THIS CREEK	7	7/1	Average	69	62	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	PAINT THE CITY	8	12/1	Average	73	60	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: KIMMIE (5/1) [Jockey: Borbonio Jose - Trainer: Richins Gerald].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2024, 07:03 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:15pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,900 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#7 SIR AGGRAVATOR (ML=8/1)
#5 GOTTAGETITBACK (ML=5/1)

SIR AGGRAVATOR - I expect this horse to astonish some handicappers this time out. GOTTAGETITBACK - When this rider and trainer join forces you have to take a look. Bracho and Silva have been fabulous together. I just may give this one a good shot. Should improve off last race where he did run off the board, but was within five lengths at the end. Sub-par outing last time out at Mountaineer Park was due to the off-going (he ran fourth). Expect better in this race without the off-track conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 JOSHY JAK (ML=3/1), #4 LADY'S BOY (ML=4/1), #10 UNIDENTIFIED MAN (ML=6/1),

JOSHY JAK - Difficult to put your cash on this early speedball. Too much early speed in the race. This morning-line favorite may be out of form without any recent works. LADY'S BOY - Can't bet on this runner in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance affair of late. 4/1 is too short of a price to take on most any entrant that has run poorly in back to back outings. UNIDENTIFIED MAN - Can't bet on this steed in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance contest of late. This gelding didn't do much for me last time out of the box.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 SIR AGGRAVATOR is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2024, 07:03 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $111300 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 RAPID GREY 9/5
# 4 WAR EMPIRE 5/2
# 6 MIDNIGHT MO 20/1

RAPID GREY appears to be the bet in here. Has recorded solid Equibase Speed Figures in turf sprint races in the past. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Civaci will most likely have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest. Jockey's recent ROI numbers make this gelding a very good bet. WAR EMPIRE - Is difficult not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been decent - 77 avg - of late. With a nice class fig average of 89, has one of the most favorable class advantages in this group of horses.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2024, 07:04 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #10 - Post: 5:51pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#5 ARISAEMA (ML=5/2)

ARISAEMA - Vasquez is right back for another event today after racing atop this equine for the first ride on May 18th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Ranked number one in earnings per race. Another indication that this horse has the class to win today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 DENVER'S ALLEY (ML=8/5), #6 ETHEL (ML=6/1), #2 POSSESSION (ML=6/1),

DENVER'S ALLEY - Hasn't raced or had any drills since Jun 7th. Not much value on this chalk horse. This animal hasn't been close in either of her last two races. POSSESSION - This filly notched a speed figure in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - ARISAEMA - This horse is a nice turf runner and she has the best last race TrackMaster turf rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 ARISAEMA on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2024, 07:04 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 84

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 JUST A FOOLER 3/5
# 3 CHESTER CARLSON 8/1
# 1 WOMAN IN GOLD 3/1

JUST A FOOLER is my choice. He has been running very well and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the top in this group. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Lopez will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out early in this race. CHESTER CARLSON - Have to bet on this money-making jockey and trainer duo. Has competitive Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. WOMAN IN GOLD - She has earned formidable numbers under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group. Should come out very strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved rapidly to the front end recently.