Monday 8/12/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-12-2024, 08:53 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 12, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card to begin the week. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $15,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)

1-Hemsworth N (3-1) Won the last time drawing the rail versus Invitational company. Faces some tough customers here but comes back in sequence and should be racing on the point or close to it throughout. If so, a picture could happen.
3-Boiling Oar (2-1)-Won the last 2 here and in the most recent drew off at 1/5.Those races were versus much softer but cashes checks on a consistent basis against this kind and beat the Invites back in May . If Kakaley wants the top he can land there off the gate, the veteran still can leave as fast as the gate car.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

1-Hellabalou (3/2)-This Burke six-year-old is usually in the hunt but can burn money at times. Bumps up off a sharp win at Philly. Could get on the engine and make every call a winning one. Does faces better but this isn’t a deep field. Just needs a smooth steer and it should be picture time.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

4-None Bettor A (9/5)-The Alexander trainee competes well at this level and knows how to beat this kind. Needs a good trip, and from this spot should be racing near the top of the stack when the wings fold.
6-Chimichurri N (7/2)-Winner of 2 straight had its streak broken last time when suffering an equipment break. Bumps up a couple of levels and was bet down to 3/2 in the last start. Should offer a lot more value and doesn’t seem out of place.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

2-Venturesome Arden N (4-1)-Needs some honest fractions and that could be the case tonight. Does best with a live cover flow, can stalk and roll by down the lane. Tyler Buter is a new set of hands and can have the 5-year-old in striking range.
3-Hazelville (12-1)-Has enough gate speed to get a good seat and get sucked-around. Brent Holland should be close to the leader at the 3/4's pole and the 5-year-old could be overlooked at the windows.
5-Its A Me Mario (7/2)-This check-getter has hit the board in 13 of 17 races this year with 8 pictures. Jason Bartlett can work a nice, covered trip and could down this group if close enough to the top in the late going.
7-Pleaseletmeknow (3-1)-Has been facing tough competition and is usually in the mix at YR. The post draw doesn't help but this race could set up for a closer. Using and will hope the Alexander trainee won't be on the majority of tickets and does have the ability to down this group.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,3/1/4,6/2,3,5,7
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-12-2024, 08:54 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#6 Highs N Lows	He hasn't found a final gear yet, but he stuck around better last time out and might have another move forward in him for a team that has been dominating these kinds of races this season.
#5 Speight the Snow	He finished ahead of the top choice in his debut, and he probably has some upside while making his second lifetime start. Prompt and pounce to stay in the mix today.
#3 Stargazzers Dream	He tracked and faded on the main at Horseshoe Indianapolis in the debut run, but he has some reasonable room to come forward today with that race under his belt. Some appeal at a midrange price.
Race Summary	Highs N Lows needs something better, but he could still be moving in the right direction for a team that runs wild with these kinds -- maybe it's time for him to click.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#3 He's a Mess	There might be just enough pace in here to keep the tempo honest and set things up for his late run after just missing last out, and he was competitive with some of these back in June.
#5 Hush of a Storm	He finished up nicely to score at Saratoga last out, and he's back here off the Brad Cox claim while trying to turn the tables on a couple who beat him here back in June. Player on form, but he'll probably be overbet.
#6 Forever Souper	He's another who makes a lot of sense with his better stuff, and he should be in a good spot while in touch with the forward players throughout. One of the ones.
Race Summary	He's a Mess is a pretty honest local performer, and he might offer a decent enough price with the other listed pair here likely to take some cash. Along late to land it?

Presque Isle Downs - Race #9

#6 Grace in Excess	Not a whole lot from her yet, but she might have some room to improve while trying the local footing for the first time after an even turf try at Laurel for more than twice this price. Slightly overlooked?
#1 Needed	Not going to be any surprise if she flashes inside pace on the drop from $30,000 and puts this group away easily, but she might have company from at least one of them early and is no sure thing to love the local footing. I'm against, but she could win by 10.
#2 Asherah's Run	Nothing to write home about on form, but her only try for a tag was the only time she ever got even briefly involved in a race, so I wonder if she has a little room to wake up while chasing on the drop out special weight company.
Race Summary	Needed is the one to beat while making her local debut on the drop from Saratoga, but I'm not totally convinced, and I think Grace in Excess has some upside while today at a better price while also making her local debut.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-12-2024, 08:59 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#7 OUR AMEN (3-1)	In good form, proven at this level and distance, catches weak field.
#8 REALITOS (15-1)	Beaten fave in pair of dirt routes, could be forward factor at big price if she turfs.
#6 SHE TOLD YOU SO (8-1)	Steps up off the claim with 3-8 record over course intact.
Race Summary	0UR AMEN has a win, a second and a photo-finish setback in her last three starts under the same conditions on the Louisiana Downs lawn. That bodes well in a field that is a combined 6-for-63 this year. Bet to win and place and play a 6-7-8 exacta box.

Louisiana Downs - Race #3

#1 NATURAL TOUCH (5-2)	Duplicate of runner-up finish on dirt puts her in winning hunt.
#3 SHEZA SALTY GAL (2-1)	Hit board in three straight at 5-1/2F, gets blinkers off Gibson claim.
#4 RON’S LAVENDER (7-2)	‘Cruised’ to victory in an 11-horse field at this distance on barn switch.
Race Summary	NATURAL TOUCH slipped through on the inside for the stretch drive but was no match for the late kick of the 9-to-5 winner two back at 7F. She faltered badly on the turf last out, but should go well from the rail on her return to a long sprint on the main track. Bet to win and place and play a 1,3/1,3,4/ALL trifecta.

Louisiana Downs - Race #5

#8 RONNIE’S DEAL (8-1)	Can make good use of her speed while taking magnified class drop.
#1 COUNTRY BELLE (9-2)	Drops, starts fresh, shortens up from rail, use in all gimmick wagers.
#4 ADIAMONDINTHESTORM (5-2)	Chased 2-to-5 winner in 3-path before fading in latest.
Race Summary	RONNIE’S DEAL returns to the scene of her maiden win for this barn. She has good speed and could carry it a long way against mostly $5,000 claiming types. The price is right for a win and place bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-12-2024, 08:59 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 1	Leg 1 of the All Turf Pick 3
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 91 • Purse: $77,000 • Post: 1:54P
ELP - R5 - (RAIL AT 10 FEET). FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ON THE TURF SINCE JUNE 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $50,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS.)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * NIKI NINE DOORS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dir t or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MOONLIT LADY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. QUIMICHIS: Horse ranks in the top th ree in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. DI'S SURPRISE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) i s at least 50. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
1	NIKI NINE DOORS	9/5	4/1
5	MOONLIT LADY	5/1	5/1
7	QUIMICHIS	3/1	9/1
4	DI'S SURPRISE	15/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	MOONLIT LADY	5	5/1	Front-runner	89	80	96.4	84.4	79.9
4	DI'S SURPRISE	4	15/1	Front-runner	83	81	75.0	76.3	65.3
1	NIKI NINE DOORS	1	9/5	Stalker	87	93	92.6	87.6	84.1
6	FROLIC IN THE PARK	6	15/1	Stalker	76	73	74.0	69.7	59.2
2	MAKEUP	2	7/2	Stalker	83	80	45.6	76.4	68.4
3	CROWN IMPERIAL	3	6/1	Trailer	93	90	81.5	73.1	66.6
7	QUIMICHIS	7	3/1	Trailer	89	84	65.8	83.2	74.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-12-2024, 08:59 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 6	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $21,600 • Post: 6:50P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED)(*PLUS UP TO $4,725 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. UNSTABLE STORM is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * UNSTABLE STORM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has th e highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SIGNONTHDOTTEDLINE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	UNSTABLE STORM	9/5	9/5
4	SIGNONTHDOTTEDLINE	6/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	UNSTABLE STORM	2	9/5	Front-runner	0	0	84.6	59.6	56.1
4	SIGNONTHDOTTEDLINE	4	6/1	Front-runner	61	20	71.1	19.0	11.5
3	IRISH RAIDER	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	78.3	38.4	33.4
5	SAILINGTHEISLANDS	5	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	56	55	25.3	28.9	21.9
6	MAIKEN THE VIKING	6	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	16.1	8.5	1.5

Unknown Running Style: KOWBOYS SEQUEL (12/1) [Jockey: Gaskin Da-Sean Zavier - Trainer: Humber Joseph].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-12-2024, 09:00 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Colonial Downs - Race #2 - Post: 12:20pm - Handicap - 18.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating:

#2 EXUMA (IRE) (ML=9/2)
#4 BELLARMINE HALL (ML=10/1)

EXUMA (IRE) - This jock and trainer have a high winning percentage together. Beecher brings him right back. I propose you stay with this strong gelding. BELLARMINE HALL - Has found a good spot this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JIMMY DAN (ML=6/5), #6 MINELLA PLUS (IRE) (ML=3/1), #3 TWO PAST EIGHT (GB) (ML=4/1),

JIMMY DAN - I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. Difficult to put your dough on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as regularly as this one does. MINELLA PLUS (IRE) - Hard to wager on any racer to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the chance. TWO PAST EIGHT (GB) - Just don't figure that he is pegged at the proper price at the given odds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 EXUMA (IRE) on top if we're getting at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-12-2024, 09:00 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10100 Class Rating: 64

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 I LOVE MY LIFE 1/1
# 5 MOSIE'S ON MAIN 20/1
# 6 NOIWONTBACKDOWN 3/1

I LOVE MY LIFE looks decent to best this field. Has very good Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager for this race. His earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone makes you take a look at him. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the top class figures of this group. MOSIE'S ON MAIN - His 53 average has this gelding with among the strongest speed figs here. Should be considered - I like the figures from the last competition. NOIWONTBACKDOWN - He has posted decent figs under today's conditions and should fare well versus this field. May best this group of animals here, showing solid figs of late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-12-2024, 09:00 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SO - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 90

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SUMMER OF MISCHIEF 9/2
# 8 ATLANTIC STRIKE 5/2
# 3 MAZOKU 2/1

SUMMER OF MISCHIEF is the best wager in this race. Has performed admirably recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 79 avg Equibase Speed Fig. With a reliable jockey who has won at a respectable 27 percent clip over the last month. This has to be one of the top selections. Geroux will probably be able to get this mare to break out quickly for this event. ATLANTIC STRIKE - Should land in the top three without any problem. Had one of the best speed figs of this group in her last race. MAZOKU - Should keep the good string of finishes intact today. Has earned formidable Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-12-2024, 09:01 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #10 - Post: 7:52pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,200 Class Rating: 61

Rating:

#4 DR. WOODS MIRACLE (ML=7/2)

DR. WOODS MIRACLE - This mare is in first-rate form right now. Ran second last time out and comes back rapidly. This mare finished well ahead of the third horse on Jul 29th. Those horses tend to run well next time out. Trainer, Hornsby, has been deliberate with this mare off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. This mare is obviously on the improve with Equibase speed figs of 46, 48, 53 last three out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BIG TIPPA (ML=8/5), #6 YOU HAVE NO IDEA (ML=5/2), #3 HOT SHOT SHOPPER (ML=6/1),

BIG TIPPA - This come from behinder will probably be rolling down the lane much too late to make an impact in this contest. YOU HAVE NO IDEA - Hard to put any money on this filly on the front end. Likes to end up on the board though. Doubtful that the speed rating she recorded on Jul 14th will be enough in this clash. HOT SHOT SHOPPER - The fifth place finish in the last race was not the best. The speed rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a likely underpriced equine.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 DR. WOODS MIRACLE on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	None

**ConleyPicks** · 08-12-2024, 12:18 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs

Assiniboia Downs - Race 5	ROLLING DOUBLE / .20 PICK 3 (Races 5-6-7) / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR EXACTOR
Allowance • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 9:15P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * OLIVE'S CANDY: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Horse has run a Goo d Race within the last 30 days. UNDER BUDGET: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORM: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has t he highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SEBADAS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Jockey win percentage over the last 30 days is at least 18.
7	OLIVE'S CANDY	15/1	9/2
5	UNDER BUDGET	2/1	5/1
4	MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORM	10/1	8/1
6	SEBADAS	5/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CHARMINGLY WITT	3	25/1	Front-runner	55	47	51.2	32.4	19.4
2	OFFLEY SPECIAL	2	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	72	58	41.2	51.6	41.6
6	SEBADAS	6	5/2	Stalker	70	63	25.0	57.2	51.2
7	OLIVE'S CANDY	7	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	74	38.2	64.6	57.6
5	UNDER BUDGET	5	2/1	Trailer	74	73	22.6	68.4	60.4
4	MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORM	4	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	74	65	24.2	61.5	55.5
1	I AM MILA	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	71	39.2	58.6	50.6
8	AWARENESS AUTISM	8	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	47	43	8.8	47.4	33.4

**ConleyPicks** · 08-12-2024, 12:19 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6 - Post: 5:15pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#5 SPEIGHT THE SNOW (ML=5/1)
#2 NOTFANUTIN (ML=4/1)
#8 CAPPETTA (ML=8/1)

SPEIGHT THE SNOW - A win percent the likes of what Morales and Potts have achieved together is fantastic. This horse is not the morning line choice, yet he finished ahead of today's chalk in their last race together. This gelding is in the top spot in earnings per race entered. Give the once over to this horse in the saddling enclosure. The latest speed rating of 68 is the top last race speed rating in the bunch. NOTFANUTIN - Rodriguez is back for another event today after getting on board this equine for the first attempt on Jul 7th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Trainer Kintz moves this thoroughbred down the class ladder to face a weaker level today. Look for a nice effort this time out. Trying to be a first time winner moving from a grass race to the dirt. I think Kintz will have him fit and in good condition for today's event. CAPPETTA - I'm optimistic this gelding will run well today. Last work was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me he's sharp right now. Look for this one to go all the way to the winner's circle at some respectable odds in this race. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the wire. The last time I saw this horse was at Parx Racing. Finished fourth, but had a decent chunk of the win pool. Could be dangerous in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 RANSOM MONEY (ML=7/2), #7 BRAVADEER (ML=9/2), #4 DRUNKLE (ML=9/2),

RANSOM MONEY - This pony gave a lackluster effort last time out of the box finishing seventh. Can't expect any betterment in today's event. Today's contest is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint contest in the last sixty days. Not the greatest of signals. Garnered a mediocre speed figure last time around the track in a Maiden Special race on July 24th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure. BRAVADEER - If he goes off anywhere near the morning line odds of 9/2, I'll have to pass. DRUNKLE - Would have to improve off that third place finish last out to make an impact here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 SPEIGHT THE SNOW to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with [2,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**ConleyPicks** · 08-12-2024, 12:20 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Colonial Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $80000 Class Rating: 91

OUTER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, VA RESTRICTED, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 12 HOWBOUTDEMAPPLES 10/1
# 1 MOANAS POWER 10/1
# 6 SOL HOPE 3/1

HOWBOUTDEMAPPLES is my selection especially at such a decent 10/1. Has quite good speed figures and has to be considered for a bet for this event. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong speed figures (93 average) at today's distance and surface lately. MOANAS POWER - Ought to come out very strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved speedily to the lead recently. Posted a solid speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. SOL HOPE - Should best this group of horses here, showing strong numbers of late.

**ConleyPicks** · 08-12-2024, 12:20 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 8	2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $1 Super 5 $.50 Box
Claiming $4,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 9:55P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE AUGUST 12, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 12 , 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * DANSEUR D'ORO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HIDDEN IDENTITY: Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days. GLORY DIA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LADY MARVEL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SHE DAZZLE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4	DANSEUR D'ORO	5/2	5/1
3	HIDDEN IDENTITY	9/2	5/1
7	GLORY DIA	5/1	7/1
6	LADY MARVEL	6/1	10/1
9	SHE DAZZLE	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	LADY MARVEL	6	6/1	Front-runner	74	72	97.0	50.8	32.3
2	SHELLY THE ROCKET	2	30/1	Front-runner	74	64	82.4	45.4	33.4
5	WARRIOR EMPRESS	5	5/1	Front-runner	79	66	73.3	55.2	45.7
1	ROMANTIC JEWEL	1	12/1	Front-runner	65	62	65.0	54.8	38.8
9	SHE DAZZLE	9	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	85	63	58.8	61.2	52.2
3	HIDDEN IDENTITY	3	9/2	Stalker	75	69	76.8	68.6	63.1
7	GLORY DIA	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	68	60.4	66.8	61.3
8	KINGSTON TIME	8	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	63	58.4	57.4	44.9
4	DANSEUR D'ORO	4	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	78	77	43.0	68.8	65.8
10	GALILEO'S AFFAIR	10	30/1	Trailer	72	66	28.3	49.0	32.5

**ConleyPicks** · 08-12-2024, 12:21 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Louisiana Downs - Race #2 - Post: 4:30pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#6 SHE TOLD YOU SO (ML=8/1)
#1 FOLLOW THE SAINT (ML=12/1)
#2 KENYA STRIKE (ML=7/2)

SHE TOLD YOU SO - Filly's last race was against tougher open company. She's in with easier 'state breds' today. Ranked the highest in (EPS) earnings per start. Another indication that this horse is classy. FOLLOW THE SAINT - Sophisticated horseplayers will tell you that this entrant has strong speed. All systems look good for this mare. Last prep, 2nd fastest of the day, shows she's fit and ready. Faces state bred foes today after finishing seventh versus 'open' company on Jun 4th. This horse has recorded the best recent turf speed rating at the distance and surface. Forgive the off the board finish on the off track last time out. On a fast track, has a shot in this race. KENYA STRIKE - Strong return on investment for this jock and trainer twosome. Last two races were sprints. Longer races have to be her best game and she should be considered a play in this route. May be extremely hard to beat this mount on the sod today. Last out scored a nice turf figure, the highest of any of these animals. A racer coming back this promptly after a strong outing is a good signal. Horse has improved at least two speed fig points in last 2 races. I look for that positive increase to continue right here. Finished ahead of today's favorite last time out at Louisiana Downs. Can do the same again right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 OUR AMEN (ML=3/1), #3 PAT HAND GIRL (ML=9/2), #5 MIDNIGHT TRIP (ML=6/1),

OUR AMEN - July 16th is the last time we've seen this mare around. Have to be a little bit leery. PAT HAND GIRL - Difficult to keep stabbing at this sort of 'hanger' horse. MIDNIGHT TRIP - 6/1 is just too low of a reward to take on most any animal that has run poorly in back to back efforts. I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the assignment done infrequently.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - FOLLOW THE SAINT - I always consider the animal with the highest average class rating in turf races. Should be a part of it today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 SHE TOLD YOU SO on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None