Wednesday 8/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Saratoga Scouting Report: August 14-18, 2024

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August 12, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Carryover Alert

Wednesday | pick 6 | $107,470 | Races 4-9

Key Races

Wednesday | G1 Jonathan Sheppard (steeplechase), Suzie O’Cain (NYB, f/m turf route)

Thursday | Rick Violette (NYB, turf route)

Friday | Skidmore (2yo turf sprint); Union Avenue (NYB f/m dirt sprint)

Saturday | G1 Alabama (3yo f dirt route), G2 Lake Placid (3yo f turf route)

Sunday | Bolton Landing (2yo f turf sprint)

Horsepower

Wednesday | Multiple Argentina G1 winner Edict (R3 ALW); Selima winner Brocknardini (R5 O’Cain Stakes); G2 Edgewood runner-up Revalita (R8 ALW).

Thursday | Parx Dirt Mile winner Nimitz Class, St. Louis Derby winner Tabeguache, Jockey Club Derby Invitational runner-up Classic Catch (R8 ALW)

Friday | Tyro winner Governor Sam (R2 Skidmore Stakes); G3 Eatontown winner Tax Implications, Sanibel Island winner Breath Away, Penn Oaks winner Malleymoo, Irish G3 winner Caroline Street (R8 ALW); Joseph A. Gimma winner Cara’s Time, Broadway winner Security Code, (R9 Union Avenue)

Saturday | $1.35M half-bro to Midnight Bisou named Sansone debuts (R1 MSW); G1 Natalma winner She Feels Pretty, G2 Edgewood winner Dynamic Pricing, G3 With Anticipation winner Gala Brand, Boiling Sprints winner Spaliday, (R9 G2 Lake Placid Stakes); G1 Alcibiades winner Candied, G2 Gulfstream Oaks winner Power Squeeze, G2 Golden Rod winner Intricate, G2 Chandelier winner Chatalas (R10 G1 Alabama Stakes)

Sunday | entries taken Wednesday

Extra Incentives

Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites won 16 of 39 races last week (41%), the strongest run by the chalk any week so far this meet. Favorites are a tad under 33% for the current Spa season.

-- Jockey Tyler Gaffalione was 6-for-7 aboard favorites last week, while Irad Ortiz Jr. was 9: 4-4-0. Gaffalione’s parade of favorites led for a week-best 10 victories (30%, slight flat-bet losing ROI).

-- Only 3 trainers reached 3 wins last week: Saffie Joseph Jr. (75%, + ROI), Mark Casse (38%, + ROI), Mike Maker (25%, losing ROI).

-- Trainer Linda Rice struggled through a 0-15 week in which 8 runners were 9-2 or less odds (3 favorites).

-- First-time starters were 22: 0-2-3 on the week with 14 of them in single-digit odds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Belterra Park - Race #2

#2 Calcetines	She ran to her 20/1 price when trying the turf last out, but her two-back run at Horseshoe Indianapolis would likely prove competitive here if she's able to run back to it today. Chance.
#4 Making Mischief	She's another coming off a dull turf try, but her debut effort at Presque Isle kept her in the frame until midstretch, and I wouldn't be shocked to see her find her home on the dirt today. Dangerous.
#3 Shaboujee	She is worth a look just because she doesn't already have bad running lines on her page, making her unique in this field. Firster wouldn't shock, especially if she's got any pace to flash in a race without much proven speed.
Race Summary	Calcetines showed a little tactical pace in Indiana in June, and that might keep her in the picture early today in a race lacking pace. Bit worried she's going to get overbet.

Belterra Park - Race #5

#7 Literati	It took her a bit to graduate, but she finally got over the top when trying the local lawn for the first time, and she's got a little bit of finishing form in a race that doesn't have a bunch of it on the page. Midrange price comes alive late on the rise to try winners?
#9 Beautiful Summer	She was just in a bit deep with allowance company last out, but she's probably a better fit today compared to the $25,000 graduation run here back in June. Think she has a claim on this, but there are also a couple committed route pace players who could hassle her on the stretchout.
#3 Top Hat Tigress	She ran OK on the lawn here in early June, and I wonder if that kind of effort might be enough to get past some of the tiring speed at a big price. For a share?
Race Summary	Literati has some of the more compelling finishing form in this one, and I think there is a chance for a really honest tempo today that would flatter her late kick.

Belterra Park - Race #8

#8 Ghost Plaza	Think she might still have some upside on the main track after graduating in her first dirt start here last month, and I think this race is crying out for someone to take an aggressive shot early without much serious early burn lined up.
#6 Princess Celina	I don't really trust her form, but she has been in with far better groups than she's going to find here. Plus, her only good run this year came on synthetic footing, so I wouldn't love being here at too short a price.
#10 Votary	She looks like the dangerous runner late with some ability to be more tactical if the race flow calls for it. Could be in line to pick them up late if the top choice comes back.
Race Summary	Ghost Plaza might be able to take advantage of a spot without much committed pace, and I'd be interested at something a bit shorter than the 6/1 ML offering in a race with a lot of question marks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #1

#5 OLIVIA DEE (7-2)	Adapted ok to dirt routes, won in lone turf try, projects ideal trip.
#1 AMERICAN PEACHES (6-1)	Useful try upon arrival from Florida, moves outside in.
#7 MERRYCHILL (5-2)	Meets mostly elders, can stalk and pounce for major share on class drop.
Race Summary	A fast pace is all but assured in this turf route with several stretch-out sprinters in the field. That should suit OLIVIA DEE, who rallied for minor awards in a pair of recent main-track routes and who won a sprint the only time she raced on the grass. Bet to win and place and play a 1,5/1,5,7/ALL trifecta.

Penn National - Race #5

#4 MELODIOUS SINGER (2-1)	Belts out winning notes, time and time again, can handle class hike.
#5 JACK’S LILLY (6-1)	Gets plenty of pace to rally into, use underneath in gimmick wagers.
#2 ME DARLIN KATHLEEN (3-1)	Found passing gear in allowance two back, eligible for this by five days.
Race Summary	MELODIOUS SINGER has 11 wins overall, nine at Penn National and eight at 6F heading into this, her 33rd start. On top of that, the 6-year-old runs well fresh and earned the top speed figure of her career the last time she class jumped to this level off a victory. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #6

#3 SUNSHINE HARRY (7-2)	Can use his speed to turn tables on main rivals, good value play.
#7 CITIZEN MACK (5-2)	Rallied for a win and a second in last pair, doesn’t shy from ‘photo’ camera.
#4 TIZ SPEEDY (9-2)	Steady numbers, two wins at distance, needs some pace flow.
Race Summary	SUNSHINE HARRY should hold a similar tactical advantage over morning-line favorites CITIZEN MACK and FINANCIAL STRENGTH in their rematch at 6F. But he won’t have three-peat, wire-to-wire winner Winning Candy to deal with, making him all the more formidable. Bet to win and place and play a 3-ALL exacta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 6	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 6:10P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 14, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SHARP CHARLIE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHARP CHARLIE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
4	SHARP CHARLIE	5/2	2/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	SHARP CHARLIE	4	5/2	Front-runner	96	100	80.0	94.4	89.4
7	DOUBLEDIAMOND DEAL	7	10/1	Front-runner	81	72	70.2	70.8	59.8
5	PESO IN MY POCKET	5	8/1	Front-runner	86	83	68.0	75.0	65.5
6	PICKENS	6	6/1	Stalker	105	91	75.4	81.8	74.3
2	JERRY'S EIGHTY	2	4/1	Stalker	97	90	64.6	83.8	78.8
3	JOSH'S DREAM	3	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	94	92	60.4	88.0	81.0
1	NO WHITE FLAGS	1	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	99	95	50.2	79.6	69.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 5	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Claiming $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 7:41P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 14 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * NO EASY ANSWER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ME DARLIN KATHLEEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MELODIOUS SINGER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JACK'S LILLY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. LADRO DI FICHI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	NO EASY ANSWER	5/2	4/1
2	ME DARLIN KATHLEEN	3/1	6/1
4	MELODIOUS SINGER	2/1	8/1
5	JACK'S LILLY	6/1	9/1
1	LADRO DI FICHI	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	NO EASY ANSWER	6	5/2	Front-runner	81	82	73.2	71.8	66.8
4	MELODIOUS SINGER	4	2/1	Front-runner	75	74	65.4	71.2	65.7
2	ME DARLIN KATHLEEN	2	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	82	75	52.8	73.6	69.1
1	LADRO DI FICHI	1	6/1	Trailer	82	75	59.6	69.8	62.8
5	JACK'S LILLY	5	6/1	Trailer	83	71	31.6	70.0	61.0
3	DIVINE ROMANCE	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	74	39.0	63.6	55.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 65

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 WHAT YOU WISHED 15/1
# 4 LILAH B 7/2
# 3 OUTLAW WOMAN 5/2

WHAT YOU WISHED looks to be a strong contender and is a respectable value bet given the line at 15/1. LILAH B - Profitable rider and handler team, with a +13 return on investment. Sound average speed figs in turf route races make this equine a definite contender. OUTLAW WOMAN - West has a strong win percent with horses moving in turf route races. The average class figure of 48 makes this one tough to beat.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 GALLANT OAK 8/5
# 7 MISTER K 7/2
# 4 DEANOS CAPE 3/1

I've got to go with GALLANT OAK. Has quite good speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in this race. The handler wheels this entrant back in next to no time to race again. Put up a solid Equibase speed fig last time out. MISTER K - Is a definite contender - given the 84 speed figure from his most recent race. With a nice class fig average of 91, has one of the best class advantages in this group. DEANOS CAPE - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding. Has been running solidly lately and ought to be up on the lead early on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Belterra Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,700 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#4 MAKING MISCHIEF (ML=5/2)


MAKING MISCHIEF - Taking a trip down in class; has the power to make her presence felt. Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This filly should do better hitting the main track right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MO BREEZY (ML=7/2), #2 CALCETINES (ML=4/1), #6 TRUE COMPANION (ML=9/2),

MO BREEZY - This closer looks to have little chance without an early speed duel at the front. Improbable that the speed rating she registered on June 29th will be good enough in this race. CALCETINES - In the last event this questionable contender finished seventh. Doesn't bode well for her chances this time. TRUE COMPANION - No good fortune for this pony in a sprint event over the last couple of months tells me that this filly is in a very difficult circumstance earned a run-of-the-mill rating last time around the track in a Maiden Special race on July 17th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MAKING MISCHIEF - Analysis shows this filly's last speed number of 36 is as good as any. Don't overlook this filly in your speculating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 MAKING MISCHIEF on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Saratoga - Race #7 - Post: 4:34pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#7 WILLFUL DESIRE (ML=8/1)
#6 R FUNNY BIZNESS (ML=6/1)
#5 PERPETUAL PRAISE (ML=6/1)


WILLFUL DESIRE - This horse likes to win on different racing tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. I figure Barrera is making a good move here. This filly can only benefit from the shorter distance. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figures (60-69-76) make this one a dominant contender. R FUNNY BIZNESS - This mare was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think she's ready for today's event. The race may set up nicely for this steed's late kick and she's probably the best late runner in the field. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. PERPETUAL PRAISE - This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +79.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FONTANAFREDDA (ML=5/2), #1 AWESOME ANNMARIE (ML=4/1), #1A MON PETIT CHOU (ML=4/1),

FONTANAFREDDA - The fifth place finish position in the last race was not the best. MON PETIT CHOU - Garnered a mediocre speed rating last time out in a $10,000 Claiming race on Jul 25th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 WILLFUL DESIRE to win at post-time odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6,7] Total Cost: $6