Thursday 8/15/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Del Mar Scouting Report: August 15-18, 2024

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August 13, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Key Races

Friday | CTT & TOC Stakes (f/m turf marathon)

Saturday | G1 Del Mar Oaks (3yo filly turf route)

Sunday | Solana Beach (Cal-bred f/m turf mile)

Horsepower

Friday: G3 Red Carpet & Santa Anta winner Linda’s Gift, Santa Barbara winner Musical Rhapsody (R7 CTT & TOC Stakes).

Saturday: G2 San Clemente 1-2-3 finishers Iscreamuscream, Zona Verde, Medoro and G2 Appalachian winner Buchu (probable for G1 Del Mar Oaks, draws Wednesday).

Sunday: California Distaff winner Rose Maddox (probable Solana Beach Stakes, draws Thursday).

Extra Incentives

Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar

Tracking the Trends

-- Favorites dominated the going last week with 17 wins from 36 races (47%), improving off the previous weeks at the meet when hitting only 32%.

-- Jockey Juan Hernandez was a highly reliable 11: 7-0-2 when paired with the chalk last week, but was only 1-for-11 when aboard non-favorites. His 8 wins led the jockey colony for the week (36%, small flat-bet losing ROI).

-- Other top riders on the week including Umberto Rispoli (5 wins, 31%, +ROI), Antonio Fresu (5 wins, 21%, but losing ROI) and Joe Talamo (3 wins, 43%, + ROI).

-- Six different trainers tied atop the weekly leaderboard with 3 wins each. They took anywhere from 6 to 16 starters to achieve the trio of victories. The only to post + ROIs, however, were Jeff Mullins ($2.67 for every $1 bet; winners at $6, $12, $13) and George Papaprodromou ($4.15 for every $1 bet; winners at $8, $8 and $74).

-- Trainer John Sadler’s remarkable 11-for-32 meet run includes the following by race divisions: claiming (4-8), allowance (4-9), maiden (3-11), stakes (0-4).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Belterra Park - Race #1

#1 Bold Hero	Debuter is one of a few fresh faces lined up, and there is a little bit of moderate success in this one's family. Not totally sold on what else is lined up in here, so I'm willing to take a look at him ahead of this.
#6 Cincazul	Wesley Ward sends out this debuter, so it's OK to assume that he's going to be in the mix here. Take a look -- not sure the price will be true.
#2 Probationer	He ran OK in his only turf try when going short at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and he proved a decent fit at the local level on the main track last out. Wouldn't be a shock here.
Race Summary	Bold Hero seems interesting enough on paper to take a peek in the paddock ahead of this, as I'm not sure there is a whole lot to be afraid of on the pages here so far -- maybe #4 Bamby Boom on the engine?

Belterra Park - Race #6

#5 Mighty Mo	All of them in here have shown at least hints at serious tactical pace, but he might be the most likely to settle in just behind the more committed pace players early and try to get a spying run to score.
#4 Streets of War	He's got dangerous pace, but I wouldn't be shocked to see at least one of them take a shot at him early on, as they have pretty much all done their best work on the lead.
#2 El Cordobes	Considered him on top after the sharp move last out to score, and he's one who benefits if a few of these hook up early and set the table for someone who can run on late.
Race Summary	Mighty Mo probably needs better today, but he might be heading in the right direction after the good score last out, and the race flow might give him a perfect trip watching everything unfold.

Belterra Park - Race #8

#9 Onore	He's not the most likely winner in here, but the price might be right to see if the move back to the local main track will wake him up after his form tailed off into the winter break last year. Think he's a threat to breeze by late.
#8 Memphis Pharoah	He looked well spotted into the lane last out at 8/5, and something similar keeps him in the frame with these again. He's obviously a good fit with this kind, but it's always tougher for me to build a case for a runner who routinely gives away ground in the stretch call.
#3 Oathbreaker	He was in the mix with 'Pharoah last time out, but he's another who tends to find himself in a good spot into the lane but then fails to find a gear to punch home. Capable player.
Race Summary	Strong lean to Onore in hopes he's ready to go today. He's got some ability to get past horses late, and the other logical players on paper have not shown that talent. Midpack run while getting back to the kind of spot where he has shared before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #1

#7 LODGE HILL (5-2)	Showed pulse in Canada, begins 3yo season for new barn, alert start looms key.
#3 ERA (6-1)	Gets Lasix, blinkers and class relief after non-threatening debut on the main track.
#2 MY HUNNY BUNNY (2-1)	Rallied for second on firm and soft footing here last fall.
Race Summary	LODGE HILL, reluctant to load as the favorite when last seen at Woodbine in November, set the pace in the race prior and finished behind disqualified winner WhyEmSeaAy, who currently stands 0-for-10 but did finish second in 4 of 7 starts as a 2yo in MSW company. She debuted in stakes company on turf and enters a 27-percent dirt-to-turf barn. Bet to win and place and play 7-2 and 7-3 exactas.

Penn National - Race #3

#8 DANCING CHIME (3-1)	In the right spot to upgrade string of in-the-money finishes.
#5 LADY ANNABELLE (10-1)	Long series of works to get ready, including some good gate moves.
#1 ADIOS MEISTER (6-1)	Finished behind ‘Chime’ in useful debut, on heels of 1:01-4/5 workout.
Race Summary	DANCING CHIME tracked the 3-to-5 pace setter under a snug hold while saving ground, then was passed by an 8-to-5 first-time starter for the place spot in her best race to date. She’s in the right spot to break through with a victory in her once-a-month appearance. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-8 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #5

#5 HE IS BAD (5-2)	He is in a good spot to return a quick claim dividend with 14/4-3-2 PN record.
#7 DEB’S GUNFIGHTER (8-1	Has a win and his top two speed figs in last three starts, value remains.
#4 CAPTAIN CARDO (7-2)	Maryland invader has plenty of back class to summon for new connections.
Race Summary	HE IS BAD, eligible for this spot by a week, is well spotted off the claim to pad his $59k Penn National bankroll. He couldn’t sustain a 4-wide bid at the quarter pole for a higher tag last out. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park
PURCHASE

Canterbury Park - Race 7	Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $2 Daily Double
Futurity • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 67 • Purse: $80,400 • Post: 8:12P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, NORTHLANDS FUTURITY - FOR QUARTER HORSES, TWO YEARS OLD.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * RELENTLESS ROCKET: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. CURLIE D: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. ALCALA C ORONA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SWIMSUIT MODEL: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). I TOLD U TWICE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast.
9	RELENTLESS ROCKET	2/1	9/2
10	CURLIE D	3/1	6/1
2	ALCALA CORONA	15/1	9/1
8	SWIMSUIT MODEL	15/1	9/1
1	I TOLD U TWICE	12/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	I TOLD U TWICE	1	12/1	Fast	63	54	2.5	0.0	0.0
2	ALCALA CORONA	2	15/1	Slow	66	53	7.9	0.0	0.0
3	SOUTHURN EAGLE	3	5/1	Fast	56	54	2.5	0.0	0.0
4	DA LIE LAH	4	6/1	Average	59	55	5.8	0.0	0.0
5	L CONEJO	5	10/1	Average	60	56	3.9	0.0	0.0
6	RELENTLESS MOGUL	6	12/1	Fast	65	45	2.5	0.0	0.0
7	MY HEART MY DYNASTY	7	20/1	Slow	0	0	6.1	0.0	0.0
8	SWIMSUIT MODEL	8	15/1	Average	64	58	4.0	0.0	0.0
9	RELENTLESS ROCKET	9	2/1	Fast	63	64	2.6	0.0	0.0
10	CURLIE D	10	3/1	Fast	66	64	3.1	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 6:24P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 15, 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. HARDLY ABLE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HARDLY ABLE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CIGAR VAN: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. QUARTER RAT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CHAD'S FLASH: Jockey win percentage over the last 30 days is at least 18. Horse's average winning distance is wi thin half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
6	HARDLY ABLE	10/1	3/1
3	CIGAR VAN	7/2	8/1
5	QUARTER RAT	8/1	10/1
7	CHAD'S FLASH	12/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	CHAD'S FLASH	7	12/1	Front-runner	82	74	56.2	64.8	57.8
3	CIGAR VAN	3	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	84	76	61.0	65.4	55.9
6	HARDLY ABLE	6	10/1	Stalker	81	78	70.6	74.0	72.0
5	QUARTER RAT	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	66	56.6	65.4	55.9
1	IT'S A BIRD	1	2/1	Trailer	74	71	47.7	62.2	52.2
4	DEAL WITH HIM	4	3/1	Trailer	75	70	39.8	70.8	63.3
2	INFINITESIMAL	2	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	76	71	42.8	59.6	49.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Saratoga

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $125000 Class Rating: 99

RICK VIOLETTE S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. LASIX NOT ALLOWED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME PURSUANT TO HISA RULE 4212. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $125 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION; $625 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $625 TO START. FOR HORSES NOT ORIGINALLY NOMINATED, A

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 B D SAINTS 15/1
# 4 COURTLY BANKER 4/1
# 2 FIDELIGHTCAYUT 9/2

My choice here is B D SAINTS and is a very good value bet given the line at 15/1. Keep this colt in your exotics as Vazquez has given backers some double digit returns. COURTLY BANKER - With Velazquez aboard him, this gelding ought to be able to break out sharply in this competition. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a strong angle. This one ranks at the top in this group. FIDELIGHTCAYUT - Has been racing solidly and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #6 - Post: 9:21pm - Maiden Special - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#10 BIG BOY OVI (ML=9/5)


BIG BOY OVI - The rider/handler tandem of Hiraldo and Sandoval has a strong ROI together. I like this gelding a lot here. He shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. I like this gelding. Has the highest earnings per race in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 HARLEY SIOUX (ML=2/1), #6 STRIKE THREE (ML=9/2), #8 EL MORITO (ML=8/1),

HARLEY SIOUX - You always think this equine has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but he falls short regularly. More than enough chances at Charles Town with no trips to the victory podium. STRIKE THREE - Not the right 'placement' in this event. EL MORITO - If he goes off close to the M/L odds of 8/1, I'll have to pass.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - BIG BOY OVI - This gelding has, based on my calculations, dominant pace. Look for this one to be in front coming home, straight through to the wire.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #10 BIG BOY OVI to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	10 with 8
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26100 Class Rating: 61

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 15, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 I'M HIM 5/2
# 6 ENTICED BY CHANCE 3/1
# 2 GRAY DAY 5/1

I think I'M HIM is a competitive choice. Has quite good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. Has to be given a shot versus this group of animals displaying respectable figures lately and an average speed rating of 56 under similar conditions. McKee has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 27 percent clip. ENTICED BY CHANCE - Could beat this group given the 56 speed fig recorded in his last outing. He has solid class ratings, averaging 65, and has to be considered in here. GRAY DAY - Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:39pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#6 EMPTY MY POUCH (ML=6/1)
#5 FREEDOM'S START (ML=5/1)
#4 NAVY RULES (ML=4/1)


EMPTY MY POUCH - This gelding likes to stalk the front-runners and the way things shape up here, he should get a gorgeous trip. This gelding is in first-rate form right now. Ended up third last out and comes back promptly. FREEDOM'S START - Salgado and McClellan teamed up together are a handicapper's friend. This thoroughbred could be tough in today's contest, especially since Salgado rode last time around the track and now should be more familiar with this one. Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a sharp outing on July 31st. NAVY RULES - I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a strong contest on July 15th. This equine wins a lot of cash per race. Number one in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SPORTING THE GOLD (ML=9/5), #1 CHUCKA MOON (ML=3/1), #2 GOING AT IT (ML=8/1),

SPORTING THE GOLD - Nice race on July 25th at Penn National, but the fact that there are no workouts since has to make one a little worried. If you keep playing these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be dissatisfied frequently. Not likely that this questionable contender can take the punishment of another relentless stretch drive after the last two efforts. CHUCKA MOON - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint affairs recently. Improbable to see him doing it this time around either. This runner hasn't been near the winner at the finish line lately. I don't think this racer likes running on the inside, certainly not out of the one hole. GOING AT IT - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of his last couple of races. Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in short distance affairs in order to wager on him. When looking at today's class figure, he will have to record a better speed fig than in the last race to compete in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #6 EMPTY MY POUCH to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,5,6] with [4,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36