Friday 8/16/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Saratoga Late Pick 4 for Friday, Aug. 16

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August 16, 2024 | By Frank Carulli

SARATOGA LATE PICK 4
Friday, Aug. 16, 2024

Rain wiped out the Saratoga card last Friday, but the weather calls for partly sunny skies, temperatures in the low 60s and no precipitation this week. Big fields should persist in the 50-cent Late Pick 4 that shapes up this way:
SAR 8th race (4:59 p.m. EST) -- TAX IMPLICATIONS, entered in a similar spot on last week’s cancelled card, ‘ran to a clear lead and held well’ in deep stretch to win the Grade 3 Eatontown stakes at one mile. She posted a personal-best 94 Beyer and remains eligible for this 2X allowance condition. She is today’s solo play in the Pick 4 for leading trainer Chad Brown.
SAR 9th race (5:35 p.m. EST) -- LEELOO brushed the stall at the gate and it could have made the difference as she swung 3-wide for the stretch drive, negotiated some traffic and surged late to just miss catching the pace setter in the 6F Dancing Renee Stakes. She romped in an entry-level allowance for this barn the last time she ran at Saratoga two years ago and is the one to beat in the featured $125,000 Union Avenue for New York-bred fillies and mares. COUSIN KRISTI has speed, held second behind multiple stakes-winner Bluefield (10-25, $474k) in a long sprint, but can’t afford another bumpy start. SECURITY CODE, first or second in all four starts at Saratoga, will have to step it up a notch in her second start since March if she wants to eclipse $300k in 6F earnings.
SAR 10th race (6:09 p.m. EST) -- Six of the 10 entrants in the main body of this 1-1/16-mile turf allowance last won at different North America tracks. That doesn’t count morning-line favorite GOA, who won back-to-back route races on the synthetic track at Chantilly, France, but who is bred to handle the turf. DANCING DEAN is a must use on the ticket after she rallied for a maiden-breaking upset in her 3-year-old debut despite shying in twice in the stretch. She was fractious in the gate last out but ‘dragged her way closer’ and finished fourth, a neck behind Destiny Star, who came back to win a six-figure allowance here two days ago. WRIGLEYVILLE got the jump on DANCING DEAN and bid 4-wide to a brief stretch lead before tiring. She appears rounding to another good race at a better distance. MIXOLOGIST sustained a wide run and beat three next-out winners under ‘confident handling’ in her debut, only to tire as an allowance favorite at Saratoga in her second go-round.
SAR 11th race (6:42 p.m. EST) -- Throwing out the three longest shots in this $40,000 maiden grass route, but taking little to chance otherwise in the final leg of the Pick 4. Go 9-deep and use the also-eligibles if they draw in.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
SAR 8th Race: 1
SAR 9th Race: 2, 5, 7
SAR 10th Race: 1, 2, 4, 10
SAR 11th Race: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12
Cost: $54

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Belterra Park - Race #7

#6 Xayah	I'm not too excited about anything else on paper in here, so I'll take a long look at this debuter on the track and tote ahead of this. The works have been pretty regular and forward leading up to this -- could score first out.
#5 Hampton Yard	Think she might be able to handle the main track well enough to transfer something like that last effort over to the main for her first dirt start. Think her last two are a competitive baseline with these.
#4 Two Lucys	She doesn't have a ton of late punch in the final yards, but she should be in a good spot heading into the far turn while trying a local crew for the first time. Tougher company lines might play well here.
Race Summary	Xayah goes first out in a spot where a fresh face makes a little bit of sense. Hampton Yard also has some appeal on the move to the main track -- I wouldn't be upset being two deep here.

Belterra Park - Race #1

#6 Mr. Bali	Decent chance in the forecast a few days out that this one comes over to the main, but he looks tough if this stays on the turf. He's got a little bit of finishing form in a race without much of it.
#4 Factum's Star	Not totally sold on either his route form or his turf form, but I think he's supposed to get the right kind of trip against this group. Wouldn't surprise, especially on dirt.
#8 Crafted	He gets some class relief for this one while moving to the turf for the first time, but I'm concerned that he has given away ground in the stretch call of every career start and could be vulnerable to someone picking him up late.
Race Summary	Mr. Bali has a little bit of late punch that figures to serve him well today if this stays on the turf, but he's playable on either surface. Think the price is going to be shorter than the 5/1 ML offering.

Belterra Park - Race #5

#6 Macho Ronnie	He has done a good bit of his recent work against tougher company than he's going to find here, and something like the two-back run might make him dangerous pace if he winds up being the most committed pace. Turf pace if the rain passes.
#8 Pickford	He handled the top choice when they recently met, and I think his form is solid enough to think he can be competitive on either surface. That said, the two wins on his page are the two turf starts on his page, so the lean is a bit stronger there.
#1 Founder	Class relief might make him tough, but he's at least a little bit of a question mark over the local footing. Could be talked into having him on the tickets.
Race Summary	Macho Ronnie has some pace that I'm hoping will be dangerous -- he has some big tables to turn on Pickford, but the price might be right to take a shot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #1

#8 GOOD KNIGHT NILE (2-1)	Lightly-raced 5yo takes magnified class drop in weak turf field.
#7 GO TAKE CHARGE (7-2)	Rallied to win in photo finishes on firm and soft footing recently.
#3 SILVERBULLETTWENTY (5-2)	Got up for third in first try on the lawn in race dominated by closers.
Race Summary	GOOD KNIGHT NILE won a turf route the last time he ran at this level, faced the likes of Mission Man (3-16, $105k) and Guaponess (3-14, $78k) in two starts this year, now meets seven rivals who are a combined 14-for-178. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#4 LUCKY HONEY (6-1)	Changes riders again, can launch winning rally in field of class droppers.
#6 STORMY IRISH LASS (9-5)	Prompted pace set by 2-to-5 and 3-1 winners, held ‘willingly’ for second.
#3 MINIME (2-1)	Drops below claim level, too risky at short price with troubled starting habit.
Race Summary	LUCKY HONEY earned her top speed figure with blinkers on for the first time and should get an ideal set-up on the class drop in her second start off a six-week layoff. The price is right for a win and place wager and a 4/3,6/ALL trifecta.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#11 MICROPHONE (6-1)	Came across loud and clear with wake-up call for new barn, taken to repeat.
#1 HAROLD’S CLOUD (7-2)	Proven main-track router at this level, tries turf off Farrior claim.
#6 WISH ME HOME (9-5)	Exits allowance ranks with $214k turf bankroll, takes some catching.
Race Summary	MICROPHONE ‘pulled his way along in the early stages’ before settling into winning stride off the claim. He earned a big speed figure and has some bigger ones to summon in his repeat attempt. His outside post is offset by an inviting 6-1 morning line. Bet to win and place and play a 1, 11/1, 6, 8, 11/1,3,6,8,10,11 trifecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings
PURCHASE

Hastings - Race 5	Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 9:00P
(PLUS UP TO $2,750 THRIF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 16 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JUNE 16 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $3,000 2 LBS. BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DYNAMITER: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FORT LANGLEY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MY COLLEGE FUND: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Hor se ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	DYNAMITER	6/1	5/1
6	FORT LANGLEY	3/1	5/1
7	MY COLLEGE FUND	7/2	8/1
3	SOMTHING ELUSIVE	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	DYNAMITER	4	6/1	Front-runner	78	79	83.8	69.4	61.4
2	ASKMENOQUESTIONS	2	9/2	Front-runner	72	70	67.6	61.5	51.0
3	SOMTHING ELUSIVE	3	6/1	Stalker	80	69	71.4	64.8	57.3
6	FORT LANGLEY	6	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	78	71.0	73.2	69.2
1	BETTER TONE	1	4/1	Trailer	70	64	59.6	71.0	61.5
5	GOOD BYE PUTIN	5	6/1	Trailer	78	66	43.0	71.0	61.5
7	MY COLLEGE FUND	7	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	76	76	69.8	73.0	66.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cassia County Fair
PURCHASE

Cassia County Fair - Race 2	$2 2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta/ $2 Quinella/ $2 Trifecta($1 Tri Box)
Maiden • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 65 • Purse: $5,800 • Post: 1:25P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR IDAHO BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PRINCESS BIRD: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MORE ABOUT LARRY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaste r Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
6	PRINCESS BIRD	4/5	9/2
2	MORE ABOUT LARRY	10/1	5/1
4	GW SMOKIN IVORY	15/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JJ EASTER BUG	1	2/1	Average	57	52	5.9	0.0	0.0
2	MORE ABOUT LARRY	2	10/1	Slow	68	59	6.7	0.0	0.0
3	MA PISTOL MAN	3	6/1	Slow	0	0	7.6	0.0	0.0
4	GW SMOKIN IVORY	4	15/1	Slow	72	58	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	M E MY O MY O MY	5	12/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	PRINCESS BIRD	6	4/5	Slow	72	59	7.6	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $26500 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 GRAN PATRONA 5/1
# 1 SWAN 6/1
# 6 LOKI'S LIGHTNING 9/2

GRAN PATRONA has a competitive shot to take this race. Shows signs of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 53 speed figure which is one of the top in this group of horses in this race. Will most likely come out very strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved promptly to the lead recently. Could beat this group given the 58 Equibase speed fig earned in her last outing. SWAN - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a good angle. This one ranks at the top in this bunch. If you look closely, this one has some longshot potential. LOKI'S LIGHTNING - Should go to the lead and might never look back. Ought to be given consideration in here if only for the very good speed figure garnered in the last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Belterra Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:05pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,700 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#1 OOPSIE DOOPSIE (ML=2/1)


OOPSIE DOOPSIE - Stand by this horse. No other viable early speed gives this animal a strong chance at the winner's circle. I think this filly could run back to her winning race from March 17th, when she won a $7,500 Claiming race, a higher class than today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 WHISKEY SIS (ML=7/2), #2 YOGURT (ML=4/1), #7 MARKET OF STOCKS (ML=9/2),

YOGURT - Finished sixth last time. Would have to advance to be there at the wire today. MARKET OF STOCKS - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint contests lately. Improbable to see her doing it this time around either. Belterra Park is not cozy quarters to this questionable contender.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - OOPSIE DOOPSIE - Having the best speed fig last race of 64 at Belterra Park on July 26th. This filly has an excellent chance to win here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 OOPSIE DOOPSIE on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ely

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 68

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 OBSIDIAN GOLD 4/1
# 4 MIDNIGHT KID 5/2
# 1 SUNDAY FUNDAY 2/1

OBSIDIAN GOLD is my choice. Mitchell is trying to win with this horse by bringing him back so quickly. With a formidable jock who has won at a quite good 17 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top selections. Must be given a shot for this race if only for the very good Equibase Speed Fig posted in the last race. SUNDAY FUNDAY - Has run soundly when running a dirt sprint race. He has a solid distance/surface win record - 1 for 4.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Remington Park - Race #6 - Post: 8:55pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#6 SHAGGY EDGE (ML=8/1)
#5 DUTCH BUS (ML=3/1)
#8 PERLIANO (ML=2/1)


SHAGGY EDGE - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. Coming off a fourth place finish at Fair Meadows Tulsa, some may pass this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has decent morning line odds today. DUTCH BUS - I expect this mount to astonish some railbirds in today's event. PERLIANO - The 81 most recent race fig looks good in the TrackMaster PPs. This animal is uppermost in earnings per race. He looks good in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 WRINKLE ROAD (ML=9/2), #1 R D C POSSE (ML=5/1),

WRINKLE ROAD - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance events of late. Not likely to see him doing it in today's event either. Unlikely that the speed fig he notched on April 29th will hold up in this clash. R D C POSSE - Had to give me lots more in the last race. Never made much of an impact. This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 SHAGGY EDGE to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[5,6,8] with [5,6,8] with [1,4,5,6,8] with [1,4,5,6,8] Total Cost: $36