Sunday 8/18/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2024, 07:59 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis

August 18, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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The Red Mile has a 17-race card with the first post at 5:05 PM EST. The $1.00 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

The Cash Back Promo applies to Races 11 & 16 tonight at The Red Mile Race.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (6:40 PM EST)

2-Momento Mori (5-1)-Easily got the pocket off the gate last time, but the leader was a longshot who stopped at the top of the last turn. Scott Zeron had to maneuver to get through, by that time the 4/5 chalk was gone and did hold on. Big Shoes was the best last time but at this price will give the Eric Patalan pupil another swing.
5-Big Shoes (2-1)-Took control on the last turn and was strong down the lane. Could make it 3 straight but the Burke trainee will be a small price, and this might not be as easy.
7-Forward Path (12-1)-This price shot left from post 5 in last, broke 6th off the gate and raced wide much of the mile. Did keep coming down the lane to finish 3rd. This will be the 2nd race since breaking stride on 7-28, also the 2nd time for trotting hopples. Could be in the hunt at the wire if minds manners and it would be no shock if Tim Tetrick were more aggressive today.

Race 7 (6:59 PM EST)

3-Capytreach (4-1)-Got an efficient trip and won last time. It was an impressive effort, went off at 18-1 and won like an odds-on choice. Paced the back half in sub .54 and did it on her own. Not sure the 4-1 holds up but if so, would offer value.
5-Defining Moment (2-1)-Didn't get the best of trips last time. Went off at 6/5 and Dave Miller couldn't get an early seat and then brushed to get on the point. Early moves haven't worked well with the Burke entry. Not loving the short price but the switch to Tim Tetrick, who has steered before, could be a winning difference.
6-Real Deal Lindy (5/2)-Was used hard off the gate from post 8 and the shorter field tonight should help. Looking for a smoother trip and should be there at the wire.

Race 8 (7:18 PM EST)

2-Channing (9/5)-The money showed in its 1st parimutuel start as the Takter pupil went off at 1/2 and looked the part. May have gotten a little steppy when she pulled away down the lane, but Yannick Gingras didn't have an issue holding her together. If she brings a clean mile, it should be picture time again at another small price.

Race 9 (7:37 Pm EST)

3-Disney (7/2)-Couldn't catch a well rated chalk who got her own way for much of the mile. Paced the last panel in 26.2 despite being parked 1st over at least 5/8's of a mile. Will fade #5 Blazing Belle last week's winner who went off at 2/5 and should be bet hard again seeking her 3rd straight picture. Will look for a more efficient trip from Todd McCarthy which could lead to cashing the top check.
4-Moonlight Miki (9/2)-Miki won against easier coming off cover to roll by in 151.1 and paid off at 10-1. That win came after being on the bench for close to a month after breaking stride on 6-25. Wasn't used off the gate in the last 2 races but did keep coming down the lane in the late going in both starts. Will look for a more aggressive drive by Andy Miller in the 3rd start off the bench and should be a square price.

$1.00 Early Pick 4

2,5,7/3,5,6/2/3,4
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2024, 07:59 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #1

#4 Dominant D	He might still have a little upside in this third start after moving forward last out, and there isn't much to beat in here if the Rivelli debuter doesn't drill them.
#5 Findaway	All signs point to him as the one to beat while going first out for a team that dominates these kinds of races around here, and this is a very soft race for the local level.
#1 La Perfect Bee	Prefer him underneath today as he has never really threatened a winner despite landing several shares already. Grinding run late may keep him on for a piece.
Race Summary	Dominant D looks like the most reasonable alternative if you want to try to beat Rivelli first out -- which I'll try to do in a spot where he's the only horse it looks like you need to get past.

Hawthorne - Race #6

#2 Long Tall Woman	She might be just a tiny bit light for this group, but the price might be OK to see if she can manage to get home while racing fresh. She has nothing but honest efforts on her page and might be a mild surprise.
#3 First Hill	Not much to argue with here as she goes for seven in a row today, and she has really adaptable tactical pace. Should be in a similar spot as the top choice to watch the committed pace players battle early.
#1 Wilma Mankiller	She should have a little company from Purr Sea further outside, but she could be dangerous pace from the fence if she can go for it and shake that one off into the turn.
Race Summary	Long Tall Woman and First Hill have similar running profiles, but the former should offer a better number with a little proving to do on class today.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#9 R Katiebug	Her better stuff would probably do the trick, and she should get a perfect run while in the frame throughout. Think her versatility while near the pace will be enough to get her home in a race where there aren't a lot of standouts.
#10 Spicy Delight	She'll need a lot to go her way to land this, but she has some appeal on her super-consistent downstate form, and I wonder if she can stick around for a piece at a big price while stretching out on the turf in a race without a ton of serious speed.
#6 Church Pew	Her last would keep her in the frame with this kind again, and she might be just a touch more tactical than a couple of the other finishing threats. Enough to like.
Race Summary	Suppose #3 Normanjito makes some sense in here for the Walsh barn after showing some life at Delware last out, but I think R Katiebug is the right one with a couple potential price players listed underneath.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2024, 08:02 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four
PURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race 1	Leg A of the Cross Country Pick 5
Claiming $50,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 101 • Purse: $80,000 • Post: 3:21P
SAR - R5 - (UP TO $13,920 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES IN 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SQUIRE CREEK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest T rackMaster Power Rating. FLOKI'S FLIGHT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. I GOT NO MUNNY: Horse ranks in the top three in T rackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MILTON THE MONSTER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning dist ance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
5	SQUIRE CREEK	7/2	5/1
3	FLOKI'S FLIGHT	3/1	5/1
4	I GOT NO MUNNY	5/2	8/1
8	MILTON THE MONSTER	15/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	SQUIRE CREEK	5	7/2	Front-runner	102	96	100.2	89.2	80.2
3	FLOKI'S FLIGHT	3	3/1	Front-runner	105	100	83.8	91.6	83.6
1	TRIDENT HIT	1	5/1	Stalker	102	93	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	DIDINGER	7	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	94	92	65.2	89.2	74.7
4	I GOT NO MUNNY	4	5/2	Trailer	100	92	78.3	88.4	82.9
8	MILTON THE MONSTER	8	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	103	99	61.5	82.4	70.4
6	NELSON AVENUE	6	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	99	98	91.6	84.4	76.9
2	SYNTHESIS	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	102	95	70.2	84.8	77.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2024, 08:02 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Harrahs Columbus Nebraska
PURCHASE

Harrahs Columbus Nebraska - Race 5	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Claiming $2,500 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $5,000 • Post: 4:25P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * TIZ HOPPIN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the high est average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BOURN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DIVA DE KELA: Horse has run a Good R ace within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MAGIC IN A HAT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Ratin g.
8	TIZ HOPPIN	6/1	4/1
6	BOURN	2/1	6/1
1	DIVA DE KELA	5/2	7/1
3	MAGIC IN A HAT	3/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	PRINCESSOFCHITOWN	2	4/1	Front-runner	64	47	55.5	43.0	31.5
8	TIZ HOPPIN	8	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	78	66	70.4	62.6	59.6
1	DIVA DE KELA	1	5/2	Stalker	60	61	60.3	52.6	45.6
6	BOURN	6	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	65	57.8	60.8	55.3
3	MAGIC IN A HAT	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	56	0.0	52.8	45.8
4	HEY ROXY	4	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	64	57	77.0	50.8	42.3
5	OLIVIA'S DUCHESS	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	51	0.0	52.2	40.2
7	QUEEN OF THE ICE	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	47	0.0	41.2	25.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2024, 08:03 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 7.0f on the Turf. Purse: $110700 Class Rating: 89

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $9,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR RESTRICTED ALLOWANCE OR TWO YEAR OLD AND THREE YEAR OLD RESTRICTED STATE BRED/STATE SIRED OR SALES SWEEPSTAKES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $32,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 SASSY MELISSA 4/1
# 9 GLORIANNIA 3/1
# 6 ALLISTON 20/1

I think SASSY MELISSA is a respectable choice. Has to be used in the exotic bets. GLORIANNIA - Had one of the best Equibase speed figs of this group in her last contest. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this equine look strong in this affair. ALLISTON - Should come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved promptly to the front end recently. This animal is at the top in this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2024, 08:04 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Ellis Park - Race #6 - Post: 2:26pm - Allowance - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $73,000 Class Rating: 98

Rating:

#1 TIVERTON (GB) (ML=5/1)
#8 KING RUSSELL (ML=7/2)
#6 BERRETTINI (ML=6/1)
#7 SGT. PEPPER (ML=3/1)

TIVERTON (GB) - The ROI when Cannon and Murphy partner up is out of sight. Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to his last race at Churchill Downs where he ran eighth on the soft turf. Should improve this time around. KING RUSSELL - Is ranked totally highest in earnings per race entered. A powerful performance in this race will add to the lifetime bankroll. Aboard this horse on July 21st and Asmussen is back again in the irons this time around. This race horse has to be one of the key horses in your investing. His trainer Moquett excels in prepping horses to race on turf from the dirt. BERRETTINI - This gelding was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. Nice return on investment for this jockey and conditioner duo. This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Morales gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. Always watch out for the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. SGT. PEPPER - Entered an Allowance race at Ellis Park last time out and raced on a muddy track finishing eighth. Should do much better right here in this race. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 GLEN AIRY (ML=4/1), #3 WINSTON WOLF (ML=9/2), #10 FIRST OF HIS NAME (ML=6/1),

GLEN AIRY - The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued contestant. WINSTON WOLF - Recent decreasing speed figs of 93/88/77 give a sign that this equine may be going off form. This gelding notched a fig in his last clash which probably isn't good enough in today's event. FIRST OF HIS NAME - Would have to perk up off that fourth place finish last time to make an impact here.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - TIVERTON (GB) - Your best speculating opportunity is with this gelding. He holds the best average class rating. Always a plus on turf.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 TIVERTON (GB) is going to be the play if we are getting 6/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	[1,8] with [1,6,7,8] with [1,6,7,8] with [1,4,5,6,7,8] with [1,4,5,6,7,8] Total Cost: $72

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2024, 08:05 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Claiming Stakes - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $53500 Class Rating: 72

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD'S, HORSES WHICH QUALIFIED TO THIS RACE MUST PASS THE ENTRY BOX IN THE USUAL MANNER. TO BE ELIGIBLE FOR PURSE MONEY QUALIFIED HORSES MUST START IN THE FINAL.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 SHOW N TELL CARTEL 3/1
# 6 RUN THRU THE NITE 20/1
# 2 RR FAST LEW 20/1

SHOW N TELL CARTEL supports the wager in here. Looks very good to be on the lead at the first call. Should best this field here, showing formidable figs of late. Strong average speed figures in short races make this racer a key contender. RR FAST LEW - Has run quite well when racing a short race. Has been running quite well lately and will almost certainly be up on the front end early on.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2024, 08:06 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #4 - Post: 1:53pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#2 LAST SECOND LOUIE (ML=8/1)
#1 ADMIT NOTHING (ML=5/1)
#5 BOX N BEN (ML=5/2)

LAST SECOND LOUIE - The return on investment when Perez and Morici team up is good. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a solid contest last time around the track within the last 30 days. ADMIT NOTHING - I'm counting on this race horse to run a good one this time. BOX N BEN - This gelding is in exceptional form right now. Ended up second last time out and comes back quickly. When Toledo and McKenzie join forces on equines the ROI has been terrific at +38. This gelding's last rating is high enough to win here, I'll wager on him right back this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 AMANI'S TIGER (ML=9/5), #3 RUN FOR YOUR LIFE (ML=7/2),

AMANI'S TIGER - The morning-line favorite is shaky here with the lack of morning activity. Should be difficult for this animal to beat this bunch off of that last rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list. This gelding hasn't been getting the job done as the favorite. RUN FOR YOUR LIFE - Last seen on May 4th at Laurel. Probably needs to do some racing into form. This sustainer looks to have no chance without a speed duel up front.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 LAST SECOND LOUIE on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None