Monday 8/19/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2024, 06:36 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 19, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway begins the week with an 11-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The
$1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 8, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

1-Birthday (7/2)-Looked great winning last week and bumps up a few levels now but will respect chances from the rail. George Brennan could take control and not look back. If not, a pocket ride might work too in a competitive affair.
4-Dunkin (5/2)-Should be a main player if Jim Marohn can hold this 4-yr-old together off the gate. Loves to win and that showed in the Dan Patch at Hoosier. Using, hoping isn’t over bet and isn’t dancing going into the first turn.
8-Racing Rampage (7/2)-Fell a nose short at Nfld and now returns to Yonkers where its posted 5 wins in 6 starts, that includes winning and being Dq’d. Some will dismiss from this post but best to respect.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

4-Whats Stanley Got A (5/2)-Stanley has been facing some tough winners-Hemsworth-Typhoon Banner-Covered Bridge, and they aren’t an issue this time. Desperate Man can be, but he has been off for 20 days, so will use just in case the morning line choice isn't ready for a top effort. Has been in good form and best to not overlook.
5-Desperate Man (8/5)-Came off a month hiatus then won two of three and both races at YR. The only loss was from the 8-hole in a Saratoga stake race. Should have the lead off the gate and this race probably goes through the Alexander trainee.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

1-Hunters Hero (8/5)-Has hit the board in 6 of 12 races at Yonkers with 2 pictures. Drops, draws the rail, so Matt Kakaley can work a cozy trip.
2-Maximius Red A (7/2)-This will be the 3rd start off a $40k claim by the Joe B barn and lands in a soft spot. Should be handled aggressively with this post draw and could go gate to wire.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

1-Pound For Pound (4-1)-Dropped from this level and popped, making every call a winning one. This won't be as easy, but the recent win might bolster confidence.
5-Funatthebeach N (5-1)-The question is will Jordan Stratton leave to land on the point? Not sure but a stalking trip could also work. Won both ways against this kind in May and June. Should be a square price and its versatility might be the winning difference.
6-None Bettor A (9/2)-Drops and George Brennan should have his foot through the floorboard when the wings fold. Can get the top, versus this kind could steal a quarter, and be difficult to tackle.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,4,8/4,5/1,2/1,5,6
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2024, 06:37 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#4 Solair	She has not been able to really sustain her move in those recent starts, but I think that kind of one-paced style might play OK against this field, and she's probably going to offer another appealing price.
#8 Motito	Tactical pace cuts back for this one and should get a great trip while watching everything unfold. Think this is probably a pretty good level/spot for her today.
#6 Talk Much	She's on the rise while looking for a hat trick, but I worry she's going to take a little bit of cash against this tougher group and may not have the stretch all to herself up top against this crew.
Race Summary	Solair gets a couple pace players to chase today, and one of these days she might get the right race shape to sustain that move she has flashed before flattening out in recent starts.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#1 Sunday Shoes	There isn't a ton of serious early burn lined up today, so her ability to show a little bit of tactical pace should serve her well against this group. Dropper might like it here.
#2 Queen of the Mud	She's quick enough to stay close early and has flashed enough pace in the past to be in the right spot to take advantage of this race's general lack of front-end speed.
#3 Baby No Worries	Her deep closing style is always going to leave her at the mercy of what's going on in front of her, and I'm not sure she's getting the right kind of setup against this group to get over the top.
Race Summary	Sunday Shoes and Queen of the Mud seem likely to settle this one, but the former could offer a touch better price?

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#5 Not Today Governor	I think the last two runs keep him in the frame a bit better than his likely price will suggest, so I'll give him another look while dropping back to this level. '
#4 Mor Spring Spirit	He doesn't have much of a final gear, but he has some pace on the big drop and might have already put this group away into the lane. Not totally sure what to think today, but I'll see if someone can come get him late.
#8 Bloodhound	He's another who has some pace and has been facing better, and a couple of his better races have come over the local footing, so I'm he's got something better to show today in the third start back.
Race Summary	Not Today Governor didn't give way quite as badly last out, which isn't the worst endorsement for a winless runner at the $7,500 level, and the price should be right to see if he can turn a grinding effort into a score here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2024, 06:37 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#2 LE COOP (4-1)	Gibson acquisition appears all-or-nothing type, 5F workouts are encouraging.
#9 CONTRABANDISTA (5-2)	Earned big but couldn’t reach fave, who had to avoid loose horse.
#1 ROULETTE (12-1)	Piled up checks going a route of ground, moves outside in.
Race Summary	LE COOP romped in his only start on conventional dirt, now takes the class plunge in his seasonal debut for the high-percentage Gibson barn. He was a vet scratch in January at Turfway Park, but like the 1:01-1/5 recent workout. Bet to win and place.

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#2 COUNTRY LADY (3-1)	Steps up and starts fresh off claim, has turf allowance win to summon.
#5 HAPPY SAILOR (2-1)	Been facing better, should upstage 7/0-0-0 grass record.
#4 MY GOLDEN BLING (5-2)	Shrugged off the favorite, held off late-running longshots to prevail.
Race Summary	COUNTRY LADY, idle seven weeks since an $8,000 claim, returns to the turf in her repeat bid. She has a turf allowance victory on her resume and has shown a passing gear if a projected lively pace develops. Bet to win and place and play 2-4 and 2-5 exactas.

Louisiana Downs - Race #3

#7 AWE SHACKLE (4-1)	Runs for cheapest tag yet, needs some pace flow on cutback to long sprint.
#5 GOLDEN QUALITY (5-2)	Earned big speed fig in defeat, hit board in all four starts at 7F.
#4 TAYSOM (6-1)	3yo is in top form, rounding to another good race, adds value to gimmick wagers.
Race Summary	This is a deep field under these conditions, as several entrants appear to have been pointed to this spot, waiting a week or two to become eligible. That being said, AWE SHACKLE gets top billing after he finished second to short-priced winners going a route of ground in his last four starts. Bet to win and place and play a 4-5-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2024, 06:38 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $35,360 • Post: 5:47P
IND - R8 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PURR FACTOR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PURR FACTOR: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout t ime is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. MS. LILIBET: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CHA CHA CHUKKA: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figu re at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. AIN'T NO OTHER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	PURR FACTOR	5/1	5/1
4	MS. LILIBET	3/1	5/1
6	CHA CHA CHUKKA	7/2	8/1
3	AIN'T NO OTHER	6/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	PURR FACTOR	7	5/1	Front-runner	83	75	82.8	72.4	65.9
6	CHA CHA CHUKKA	6	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	75	74	89.9	75.0	62.5
4	MS. LILIBET	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	77	85.6	77.0	73.0
3	AIN'T NO OTHER	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	75	68.3	71.1	61.6
5	REAL QUEEN	5	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	63.9	66.8	49.3
1	RAZZLE RED	1	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	67	61.0	65.1	52.6
11	ELLE'S DANCER	11	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	78	37.0	57.7	42.7
9	COMPUTADORA	9	8/1	Trailer	77	62	85.3	72.0	66.0
2	ZIVA	2	15/1	Trailer	69	71	72.0	67.3	53.3
10	RED WINE LADY	10	15/1	Trailer	80	67	58.6	58.6	48.6
8	PIVOT TO THE POWER (GB)	8	30/1	Trailer	0	0	45.5	45.5	23.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2024, 06:38 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 2	Leg 2 of the All Turf Pick 3
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 70 • Purse: $71,000 • Post: 2:52P
ELP - R7 - (RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE.)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Trailer. DERRY GIRL is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DERRY GIRL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in t he top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. VIXEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
11	DERRY GIRL	6/1	7/2
10	VIXEN	5/1	9/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	ALWAYS FOREVER	2	3/1	Front-runner	70	57	29.4	54.0	43.5
11	DERRY GIRL	11	6/1	Trailer	69	67	74.9	63.5	59.5
10	VIXEN	10	5/1	Trailer	72	64	60.7	60.7	55.2
6	PRINCESS SKAYA	6	4/1	Trailer	0	0	57.8	57.8	50.8
1	BOUTWELL TIME	1	15/1	Trailer	0	0	55.0	55.0	46.0
4	FIXIN TO BEE	4	12/1	Trailer	0	0	55.0	55.0	46.0
13	SHEILA'S LION	13	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	54.0	56.9	47.9

Unknown Running Style: EL JOURY (9/2) [Jockey: Machado Luan - Trainer: Walsh Brendan P], ADDED TOUCH (20/1) [Jockey: Corrales Gerardo - Trainer: Oliver Victoria H], LES IS BEST (20/1) [Jockey: Torres Cristian A - Trainer: Foster Eric N], SERVING TIME

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2024, 06:39 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3 - Post: 3:54pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#2 WARRIOR'S CAUSE (ML=5/1)
#4 GOLDEN SODA (ML=9/2)
#7 MEAN TWEETS (ML=12/1)

WARRIOR'S CAUSE - Strong winning percent this jockey and conditioner tandem have been putting together. Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. Taking a trip to a lower level; has the class ability to make his presence felt. GOLDEN SODA - Looking at this gelding's running lines, I see he's almost always in the money. Have to like the way Potts has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. That 89 fig this gelding registered in his last affair tells me he's a chief player in today's event. MEAN TWEETS - Allen is right back for another event today after getting on board this horse for the first ride on Jul 30th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Could be an overlay right here in this race at odds of 12/1. Finished fifth in last race at Presque Isle Downs but was close at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 RESIST THE DEVIL (ML=8/5), #3 GUACO (ML=5/2),

RESIST THE DEVIL - If he goes off near the oddsmaker's morning line of 8/5, I'll have to pass. GUACO - This come from behinder looks to have no chance without an early speed duel at the front.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 WARRIOR'S CAUSE to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2024, 06:39 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MISS ESCAPADE 15/1
# 10 TEMPTING LADY 4/1
# 8 STREETS OF PARIS 5/1

My choice in this race is MISS ESCAPADE especially at a such a nice price. TEMPTING LADY - Ought to be carefully examined here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone. Seems to have a decent class edge based on the latest company kept.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2024, 06:39 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 68

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 FIVE A SIDE 5/2
# 2 MISCHIEF MAXEY 9/2
# 4 NOT TOO LATE 8/1

My pick in this competition is FIVE A SIDE. With Adorno uptop her, this filly will almost certainly be able to break out quickly in this contest. The Equibase Speed Fig of 64 from her most recent race looks strong in here. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of horses in this race lately. MISCHIEF MAXEY - Could provide positive profits based on quite good recent speed figures with an average of 59. Pennington ought to be able to get this filly to break out quickly in this race. NOT TOO LATE - Garnered a formidable Equibase Speed Figure last time out. Looks to have a solid class edge based on the most recent company kept.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2024, 06:39 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,900 Class Rating: 46

Rating:

#7 VERNON'S BEST (ML=3/1)
#4 MY BUDDY MICAH (ML=5/1)

VERNON'S BEST - Ran in the last race against a better field at Thistledown. The move to a lower class level should suit him well. This colt is rounding his way back into shape. Should compete well today. MY BUDDY MICAH - Bird drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to think this animal will be one to beat at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 STRIKING LAD (ML=2/1), #6 ANYGIVENDAY (ML=7/2), #8 STRIKE PLATE (ML=8/1),

STRIKING LAD - Doesn't appear to be worth 2/1 in today's event. Pass on him this time. ANYGIVENDAY - This closer will probably be closing much too late to make an impression in this event. The lack of morning activity has to make one concerned despite the good effort in the last contest. STRIKE PLATE - Tough for anyone who saw this mount in his last contest to bet on him this time out. In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been on the board in sprint races recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #7 VERNON'S BEST on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip