10-18-11

[timbob]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK Edit Post Reply Reply With Quote .

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

25 DIMES - Arkansas State -3

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

2* Arkansas State

[Chico1856]

DR BOB Write up

ARKANSAS ST. (-3.0) 34 Florida Intl. 24
Over/Under Total: 53.0
05:00 PM Pacific Time, Tuesday, 18-Oct-2011
These two teams have played similar schedules (Arkansas State’s is actually 2.2 points tougher) and Arkansas State has out-gained their opponents 445 yards at 6.1 yppl to 347 yards at 4.9 yppl while FIU has out-gained their opponents by 413 yards at 6.1 yppl to 354 yards at 5.3 yppl, so while the offenses have been similar it appears that the Red Wolves are clearly better defensively. That’s even more evident when you look at the compensated numbers. Both teams are 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (each average 6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl) but Arkansas State is 0.1 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense) while Florida International is 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 4.9 yppl against an average team). Despite the presence of T.Y. Hilton Florida International is actually not good in special teams overall. Hilton has averaged 31.1 yards on his 7 kick returns and the Panthers’ average starting position after kickoffs is the 33.1 yard line, but their opponents also average the 33.1 yard line after kickoffs and the Panthers net punt differential is -3.6 yards per punt (34.9 net to 38.5 net by opponents). So, while FIU has a reputation of having great special teams because of Hilton, they are actually at a disadvantage in that category too against an Arkansas State team that is +5.7 yards per net punt (they average 39.4 net punt) and only -1.0 in kickoff field position. Florida International has been 0.5 net turnovers better per game than Arkansas State, but that’s not that much of a difference and most of that is random given that Arkansas State quarterback Ryan Aplin is not likely to continue to have a 3.8% interception percentage given that he has a slightly better than average 3.1% interception percentage since the start of last season. Also, FIU quarterback Wesley Carroll is not going to continue his 0.7% interception rate (1 pick on 152 passes) since that percentage is impossibly low in the long run. The line on this game should certainly be higher than 3 points given 3 ½ points is the standard home field advantage and Arkansas State is better from the line of scrimmage and on special teams. My math model has pegged Arkansas State as an underrated team and the Red Wolves are 5-1 ATS and they have a good chance to cover this game too against what looks like an overrated FIU team that has dropped 3 straight to the number since gaining early season recognition with upset wins over Louisville and Central Florida (thanks in large part to being +2 in turnovers in both games). Arkansas State has a profitable 57.4% chance of covering based solely on the line value and the Red Wolves also apply to a solid 15-2 ATS subset of a 66-32-1 ATS home momentum situation. I’ll take Arkansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less (at -120 odds or better)

[Mr. IWS]

ben burns

9* blue jackets
8* blue jackets under
9* calgary
10* florida int'l

[slim]

Hope Burns comes out of his slump this week... Especially since I'm on FIU!!!