10-18-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

NCAACFB NEWS AND NOTES
Florida International at Arkansas State (-3, 54)
By David Payne Purdum


Florida International at Arkansas State (-3, 54)

Mid-week Sun Belt football is back, featuring a nationally televised matchup between a pair of teams trying to stay alive in the conference race.

Florida International was an early-season ATS dynamo, winning its first three games and covering the spread in each. But an injury to star wide receiver/kick returner T.Y. Hilton led to losses in two of the Golden Panthers’ last three, with their only win coming against an Akron team that is considered among the absolute worst in the nation. Hilton will play Tuesday.

The Golden Panthers haven’t covered the spread since upsetting Central Florida on Sept. 19 and must travel to Jonesboro, Ark., as short road dogs.

Arkansas State has played well for first-year coach Hugh Freeze and has covered in five of six. The Red Wolves bounced back from a bad loss at Western Kentucky with a solid road conference win at Louisiana-Monroe on Oct. 8.

THE LINE

Arkansas State opened as a 2.5-point favorite Sunday at the Las Vegas Wynn. Early money came in on the Red Wolves, pushing the number to as high as 3.5. The number had settled back at -3 as of Monday afternoon.

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING

Florida International boasts a balanced offensive attack, orchestrated by quarterback Wes Carroll, a transfer from Mississippi State. The Golden Panthers average 248 passing yards and 156 on the ground. They’re not only excellent at getting to the passer (2.83 sacks, 19th nationally), but they also protect Carroll well, allowing just over one sack per game (32nd nationally).

Protecting the quarterback will be key, as Arkansas State also ranks high in sacks (2.67, 22nd). The Red Wolves, however, have been susceptible to pressure and are surrendering more than two sacks (2.17, 73rd). Of course, they throw it a lot, too, with junior quarterback Ryan Aplin. His favorite target is Josh Jarboe, a highly-touted recruit, who originally signed with Oklahoma.

Arkansas State is 15th in passing offense at 303.5 yards, tops in the Sun Belt.

INJURIES

Hilton, arguably the best pro prospect in the conference, appeared to be back at full strength in the win over Akron. He caught 12 passes for 144 yards against the Zips for his fourth 100-yard receiving game this season.

The Golden Panther also expect a boost from the return of wide out Jacob Younger, who missed the Akron game.

Arkansas State is reporting no injuries.

LAST MEETING

Carroll connected on a 42-yard touchdown pass to Hilton with less than two minutes to play, lifting the Golden Panthers to a 31-24 win over Arkansas State. Florida International held Aplin to just 126 yards passing in the win.

TRENDS

Florida International is 1-8 ATS in its last nine October games.

Florida International is 9-13 ATS as a road dog under coach Mario Cristobal.

Florida International is 0-3 all-time in Jonesboro.

The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings, with the games averaging 44.6 points.

The Under is 7-1 in Red Wolves’ last eight.

Arkansas State is 10-20 ATS in its last 30 conference games.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Tuesday's Best CFB Bets

Florida International at Arkansas State (-3, 54)

We tackle a great Sun Belt college football betting affair on Tuesday night here at Bang the Book, as the Arkansas State Red Wolves play host to the Florida International Golden Panthers.

Interestingly enough, this is the second time that FIU is going to be on national television this year on the road. It was able to take down the Louisville Cardinals at Papa John’s Stadium a few weeks back, and now, it has a chance to win what amounts to be an even bigger game in the Sun Belt. QB Wesley Carroll hopes that he can not just get the Golden Panthers back into a bowl game and to another Sun Belt title, but potentially even into the Top 25 by the end of the season as well. The team can’t afford another loss if it hopes to do that, but it would be a tremendous accomplishment. The last time that we saw WR TY Hilton, he was busy burning the Cardinals for some long, long pass plays. He is averaging over 17 yards per reception this year, easily the best on the team, and he has accounted for over 700 yards between rushing and receiving this year. The Panthers also have a pair of 300+ yard rushers, which is nothing to forget about considering the fact that this is a team that has only played six games, many of which came against teams that should have been better than they are.

Last year, Arkansas State came up just shy of a bowl game, but we still saw the makings there for a special season this year. The Red Wolves haven’t disappointed, as their only two losses came on the road at the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Illinois Fighting Illini. Those two teams only have a combined one loss between them, and both are ranked in the Top 20 in the land and could be BCS teams this year. Also, Arky State stuck in front of the NCAA football odds in both games and contended for a good chunk of both games to boot. QB Ryan Aplin is probably one of the few players in this conference, especially at the quarterback position, that could be making it to the next level. Aplin has already thrown for 1,646 yards on the campaign, and he is leading the nation’s No. 15 ranked passing game at 303.5 yards per game. Arkansas State is putting up 444.2 yards per game, and it is probably underachieving at 28.7 points per game as a result.

Florida International Golden Panthers @ Arkansas State Red Wolves Pick: These two teams could both hold their own in a conference like the MAC or Conference USA, and maybe even in the Big East. We give FIU the slight nod for its experience at this level, and we think that the difference will be those big plays that Carroll and Hilton will be able to make.

PICK: Florida International Golden Panthers +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

DCI CFB
Season
Straight Up: 550-181 (.752)
ATS: 208-212 (.495)
ATS Vary Units: 1266-1334 (.487)
Over/Under: 203-210 (.492)
Over/Under Vary Units: 504-537 (.484)

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2011
Sun Belt Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 28, Fiu 25

[Mr. IWS]

TUESDAY BETTORS' TIPS AND NOTES
Tuesday’s Betting Tips: FIU Struggles Off The Bye
By Covers Staff


WHO'S HOT

NCAAF: Arkansas State is 5-1 against the spread this season.

NHL: Washington is 4-0 to start the season.

NHL: Buffalo has won five of its last seven games in Montreal.

WHO'S NOT

NCAAF: Florida International is 0-4 against the spread in their last four games following a bye.

NHL: Edmonton is 7-20-2 in its last 29 trips to Calgary.

NHL: Columbus is 0-4-1 to start the season.

KEY STAT

13-7 – The over is a combined 13-7 in St. Louis and Texas’ postseason games heading into Wednesday’s Game 1 of the World Series.

INJURY THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED

Jeff Carter, Columbus Blue Jackets – Carter suffered a hairline fracture on the top of his right foot Saturday and is currently questionable for Tuesday’s matchup with the Dallas Stars.

GAME OF THE DAY

Florida International at Arkansas State (-3, 55)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

"This is going to be quite a big week for the club, with Manchester United [to play] at the weekend. We are aware of that game, and the situation at the top of the league, but first we have to take care of the Champions League match. Villarreal is all we can think about right now." – Manchester City’s David Villa ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League matchup with Villarreal. Man City has just one point in its first two Champs League contests and is set as a -435 favorite. A Villarreal victory is pegged at +1000 and the draw is at +400.

TIPS AND NOTES

Vancouver Canucks center Ryan Kesler is expected to make his season debut Tuesday against the New York Rangers. Kesler, who has been recovering from offseason hip surgery, practiced with the team Monday morning. The Canucks also opened a spot on the 23-man roster by sending defenseman Chris Tanev to Chicago of the AHL. Kesler underwent surgery to repair a torn hip labrum at the beginning of August. His recovery time was estimated at three months. Signed to a six-year extension worth $30 million in 2010, Kesler collected a career-high 42 goals, 32 assists and 66 penalty minutes last season. However, he suffered a groin tear and struggled during the Stanley Cup Finals against Boston, recording just one assist in seven games for the Presidents' Trophy-winning Canucks.

Chris Carpenter has been tabbed as the likely starter for the St. Louis Cardinals and will be opposed by Texas Rangers lefthander C.J. Wilson in Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday night. Carpenter was being saved in the event the National League Championship Series went to a seventh and deciding game. The Cardinals made sure that didn't happen, routing the Milwaukee Brewers 12-6 to wrap up the NLCS in six games. Wilson was hit hard in Thursday's start against Detroit, allowing six runs on eight hits in six innings. He also was rocked by Tampa Bay for eight runs in five innings in his playoff opener. Carpenter has been the best of a bad bunch for the Cardinals in the post-season, going 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three starts. St. Louis' other three starters - Jaime Garcia, Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse - are 1-4 with a collective 6.21 ERA in their eight appearances. Oddsmakers have the Cardinals listed as an early -120 favorite for Game 1, while Texas is a -175 series favorite.

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Tuesday's Best NHL Bets

Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins (-195, 5.5)

The Boston Bruins look like they’re still feeling the hangover of their summer-long Stanley Cup celebration.

Boston managed to pick up a 3-2 shootout win over the Blackhawks on Saturday, but the club has a lot of work to do. The Bruins have looked sloppy in their own end at times and appear to be struggling to play with the intensity that made them so tough to play against last spring.

"We knew that you don't really want to lose three games in a row," defenseman Johnny Boychuk told reporters about snapping their slump Saturday. "We've been on the road for a (few) days, only two games, but we wanted to make sure to at least come out with a split after that first loss."

Carolina had a jump in its step last week when they downed the Bruins 3-2 and it sounds as though the Bruins will be without David Krejci again Tuesday. His absence has coach Claude Julien rotating centers through the top line to try to find some chemistry.

So far at least, it’s a work in progress.

PICK: Carolina Hurricanes


Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets (-110, 5.5)

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Stars, but they look to be gelling quickly.

The Stars cruised to a 4-2 win over the Blue Jackets on Saturday, controlling the play by outshooting Columbus 33-15. Winger Adam Burish told reporters that it was one of the better games the team has played in a long time and they’ll have a chance to complete the home-and-home sweep Tuesday as they begin a four-game road trip.

"Our week on the road now is going to be a good test for us mentally on the road to see what we're made of," rookie coach Glen Gulutzan said.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are struggling to get anything going and could be without Jeff Carter, who suffered a hairline fracture in his right foot Saturday.

This line probably should end up favoring the Star by the time the puck drops.

PICK: Dallas Stars

[Mr. IWS]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Hurricanes Aim For Third Straight Win Against Bruins
By Tal Pinchevsky


Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins (-195, 5.5)
HURRICANES (2-2-1) at BRUINS (2-3-0)

TV: FS-CR (HD), NESN (HD)

SEASON SERIES: This is the second of four meetings this season between these teams. In the first one Oct. 12, Carolina fired 34 shots at Tim Thomas and nine different Hurricanes registered a point in a 3-2 win, their first of the season after going 0-2-1 to start.

BIG STORY: It hasn't taken long for the Bruins to feel the pressure of being the defending Stanley Cup champions. With their loss in Carolina last Tuesday, Boston's record dropped to 1-3-0, but the team rebounded against its Cup champion predecessors, the Chicago Blackhawks. Saturday night in Chicago, Nathan Horton's third-period slap shot tied the game before Tyler Seguin scored the shootout's lone goal, allowing the Bruins to win an exciting game that they never led.

TEAM SCOPE:

HURRICANES: After their 3-2 win over Boston, the Hurricanes embarked on a four-game road swing that began Friday night in Buffalo. In an exciting back-and-forth affair that the Hurricanes led late, Drew Stafford’s goal with 2:21 remaining in regulation evened the score 3-3. While many in attendance may have anticipated extra time, defending Calder Trophy winner Jeff Skinner had other ideas.

With Thomas Vanek in the penalty box for tripping, Skinner scored a power-play goal just 57 seconds after Stafford's equalizer, giving Carolina a 4-3 win in which Cam Ward made 39 saves and the team scored two shorthanded goals to go along with Skinner's power-play winner.

"It was great to see the power-play connection on that last one," said Ward. "When you get a power play like that, you need to bear down, and we certainly did."

BRUINS: With all three of its losses this season coming by a single goal, Boston entered Saturday's game against Chicago having failed to win a game in which it trailed in the third period. That streak ended against the Blackhawks, when Horton scored 7:56 into the third period to tie the game 2-2. From there, Thomas was perfect in the shootout against Chicago's three All-Stars; Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Patrick Sharp.

Early on in their season, shots have been the difference for the Bruins. In their three losses, the Bruins have averaged 29 shots per game, compared to 39.5 shots per game in their two wins.

"I just thought we got better as the game went on, and by the third period we looked a lot more like our team," Bruins coach Claude Julien said. "So that was good. I thought we did a great job of fighting through what we've been talking about the last couple of days."

WHO'S HOT: Skinner's game-winner in Buffalo continued a hot start that has seen him earn 6 points in his first five games. Winger Jussi Jokinen has kept pace, with 4 points in his last four games. … Both entering their second NHL season, Seguin and Brad Marchand have paced the Bruins offensively, with 5 and 4 points respectively in the team's first five games.

INJURY REPORT: Carolina center Zac Dalpe left the game in Buffalo with a lower-body injury and isn't expected to suit up in Boston. … David Krejci is questionable against Carolina after sustaining a core injury during practice last Tuesday, as is Adam McQuaid, who missed the Chicago game with a head injury. Defenseman Steven Kampfer (sprained MCL) is on Boston's injured reserve.

STAT PACK: While the Bruins rode the play of Thomas to a Stanley Cup last summer, they've had struggles on the offensive end to open the defense of their Cup. With two second-year players leading the team in scoring, the Bruins have scored two or fewer goals in four of their five games this season. They have also gone 0-for-20 on the power play since scoring their first goal of the season with the man advantage.

PUCK DROP: Due to Dalpe's injury, the Hurricanes have recalled winger Brett Sutter from Charlotte of the American Hockey League. The team captain with the farm team, he could potentially play alongside his cousin, fourth-year center Brandon Sutter. From the 1970s through the 90s, the Sutter brothers, including Brandon's father, Brent, and Brett's father, Darryl, combined to play 4,994 regular-season NHL games. This past summer, Carolina also drafted another Sutter cousin, Brody, in the seventh round.

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Football Game Picks

Florida International at Arkansas State

The Golden Panthers look to take advantage of an Arkansas State team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite from 1 to 3 points. Florida International is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wolves favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+3).

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 18 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 301-302: Florida International at Arkansas State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 81.536; Arkansas State 82.033 Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 1; 57 Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 3; 54 Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+3); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's NHL Picks

Buffalo at Montreal

The Canadiens look to bounce back from their 6-5 loss to Colorado and build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 games after allowing 5 or more goals on the previous game. Montreal is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 18 Time Posted 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Carolina at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 12.106; Boston 10.893 Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-175); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+155); Over

Game 3-4: Florida at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.496; Washington 11.852 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-220); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-220); Under

Game 5-6: Dallas at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.582; Columbus 10.418 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-110); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-110); Under

Game 7-8: Buffalo at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.660; Montreal 11.701 Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+100); Over

Game 9-10: Philadelphia at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.768; Ottawa 11.277 Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-165); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+145); Over

Game 11-12: Pittsburgh at Minnesota (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.875; Minnesota 11.019 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-110); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Under

Game 13-14: Edmonton at Calgary (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 12.109; Calgary 10.516 Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-170); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+150); Under

Game 15-16: NY Rangers at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.009; Vancouver 11.371 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-180); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-180); Over

Game 17-18: Chicago at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.619; Phoenix 11.080 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-135); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-135); Under

Game 19-20: St. Louis at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.502; Los Angeles 12.718 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-140); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

734- 542 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one TUES: Chi Blackhawks

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Jets (-7) Monday night.

Tuesday: FIU. The deficit is 2811 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo began yet another comeback from oblivion last night, soaring with the dissension-riddled Jets to lower the deficit to 3,055 hartacks.

Today, Mr. Aitch is turning to the horse sense of The Post's potent pony picker Anthony Affrunti, who urges a play on Please Be Quiet in the sixth at Parx, nee Philadelphia Park. Twenty units to just win, baby.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

Dallas Stars under 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

FIU +3.5 over Arkansas State

[Mr. IWS]

Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:

Montreal Canadiens + Buffalo Sabres UNDER 5.5