Tuesday 8/20/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#1 Irish Stone	Positional pace might find himself in a good spot near the front in a race without a whole lot of speed, and something like his last might do the trick today.
#3 Secret Treasure	He's a bit of a career type at this level, but he's probably the one to beat today in what feels like a pretty soft spot. His tactical pace should give him every chance.
#2 Frozen Four	Riser isn't out of the question off the claim, and he might wind up being an OK fit at the local level. Some appeal, but I worry about the race flow while trying to finish.
Race Summary	Irish Stone and Secret Treasure look like the two to get past, but the former might offer a tiny bit better price than the latter.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#4 All American Rose	Solid lean for me today while she steps up to try winners off the graduation run in her local debut -- her pressing pace might leave her in a great spot to watch things unfold while in just behind the more committed forward players.
#7 Triple R Rated	Nothing wrong with her current form, and she gets a good draw to attack from the outside the whole way, but I worry she's going to be a short price with a little bit of company near the top.
#2 Meet in Secret	There's that one Turfway try on the page from last year that would make her interesting enough for a piece at a big number. Needs her very best to be in the frame at all.
Race Summary	All American Rose might offer an OK price after making a solid first local impression, and she might still have some upside while making just her third career start. Enough to like.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#2 Rusty My Brother	Can be a bit dicey to try to take a group the entire way over this footing, but there isn't any other real speed for this one to contend with, so I think there's a real chance she is able to manage this pace and hold.
#3 Calvary Kat	Reliable finisher has never run a bad one, so I'm not totally sold she's going to head to post at anything like the 8/1 morning-line offering. Obvious threat.
#4 Rock N Reward	She has been dangerous in every local start, and she's another who has a little bit of positional pace to try to keep the top choice in her sights early on.
Race Summary	Rusty My Brother might not be much of a price today, because her controlling pace looks pretty apparent on paper -- but maybe Rock N Reward takes enough cash to keep the number playable.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#1 DISCO DEVIL (4-1)	Good fit if ready off seven-week layoff and one published work since then.
#7 HIDE THE RANSOM (9-2)	Steady numbers, starts fresh off the claim but is 0-for-10 at distance.
#3 AWESOMEBROTHERBILL (7-2)	Bid to brief stretch lead at 7F before longshot passed by.
Race Summary	DISCO DEVIL won a pair of $7,500 sprints in photo finishes this year and is eligible for this condition by five days. He switches riders off a non-threatening try in a fast heat and should factor in his first start at this level. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #2

#7 THIS GIRL’S NO JOKE (	Rushed up and stopped in well-bet debut, good value play with Lasix.
#1 ROYAL UPSTART (5-2)	Hit board in four straight on the main track before troubled run in latest.
#3 MOONLIT MAGIC (8-5)	Found Lasix of little help, takes class drop, resumes once-a-month sked.
Race Summary	THIS GIRL’S NO JOKE broke last, rushed up between rivals on the backstretch and remained in contention until she stopped and was wrapped up on the turn. She gets class relief, gets Lasix and could get involved in the early mix with an alert start. Bet to win and place and play a 7/1,3/ALL trifecta.

Parx - Race #7

#2 BATTALIA (5-1)	Visually impressive in repeat victory, might still be peaking.
#5 OLD HEAD (6-1)	Re-claimed by hot barn, gets in light, first or second in 9 of 19 at Parx.
#6 CABRA CHICA (7-2)	Can be excused for latest, should sit ideal stalking trip at proven distance.
Race Summary	BATTALIA has come to life, enhancing the barn’s 5-for-13 winning streak with back-to-back romps. She broke a step slow, opened a clear backstretch lead on the rail and widened on her own courage on the turn. She can handle the class rise and cutback to a short sprint in her current form. Bet to win and place and play a 2-5-6 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 1	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3), 20 Cent Guaranteed $10,000 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Claiming $4,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 55 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 4:30P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (LIMITED TO 10 STARTERS)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF FIVE FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. TANGERINE TWIST is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TANGERINE TWIST: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SILENT WARNING: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. ASHCAR NELLIE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surf ace (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	TANGERINE TWIST	8/5	3/1
5	SILENT WARNING	12/1	7/1
6	ASHCAR NELLIE	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TANGERINE TWIST	1	8/5	Front-runner	64	58	76.8	57.6	54.6
3	PEACE IN PARADISE	3	5/2	Front-runner	47	53	68.2	40.8	33.3
6	ASHCAR NELLIE	6	6/1	Front-runner	48	55	66.8	46.1	40.1
5	SILENT WARNING	5	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	54	53	63.6	52.0	42.0
2	MISS SCHILLER	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	60	59	46.6	40.8	33.8
4	ALWAY'S ROSIE	4	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	53	54	31.2	39.9	29.9
7	SIGNATURE RING	7	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	48	48	50.0	23.1	11.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs
PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 3	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 1 1/16 Miles • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 3:54P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SECRET TREASURE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MIDNIGHT COUNCIL: Horse ranks in the top thre e in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. IRISH STONE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. FROZEN FOUR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Maiden finished second in its last race and finished three lengths or more ahead of the thir d place horse.
3	SECRET TREASURE	9/5	9/2
4	MIDNIGHT COUNCIL	9/2	6/1
1	IRISH STONE	5/2	6/1
2	FROZEN FOUR	3/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	SECRET TREASURE	3	9/5	Stalker	80	73	63.8	73.8	71.3
1	IRISH STONE	1	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	81	70	64.0	69.6	63.1
4	MIDNIGHT COUNCIL	4	9/2	Trailer	83	74	64.9	66.9	61.9
2	FROZEN FOUR	2	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	72	69	72.0	68.3	57.8
5	FAMOUS FINAL SCENE	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	72	79.2	63.8	58.3
6	PARTY AT THE BEACH	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	73.9	59.7	48.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 73

IND - R5 - FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 ORA CERTA 5/2
# 4 CHOCOLATE MOOSE 7/5
# 2 BUCKLE UP 9/2

ORA CERTA is the most competitive bet in this race. Look for a much improved effort with the drop. In the upper half of earnings per start at the distance/surface in this bunch. Is a solid contender based on numbers posted recently under today's conditions. CHOCOLATE MOOSE - Sound average speed figures in turf route races make this animal a solid contender. Ought to compete strongly in the early pace contest which bodes well with this field. BUCKLE UP - He has to be considered given the very good speed numbers. Recent figures for the jock - 23 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #5 - Post: 2:52pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 49

Rating:

#3 MORO MAESTRO (ML=7/2)
#5 BABAS GAL (ML=9/2)
#1 SPIRIT SMOKE (ML=3/1)


MORO MAESTRO - Arrieta is up for another race today after riding aboard this horse for the first ride on July 27th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. I like to play this angle, a horse coming back off a solid race within the last thirty days. Filly is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big race today. BABAS GAL - Taking a trip down the ladder based on class rating points; has the ability to make her presence felt. SPIRIT SMOKE - Don't often see a favorable ROI like +168. This jockey/trainer twosome has done well together over the last 12 months. Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a sharp race on August 6th. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 HER SPEAKER'S ON (ML=4/1), #6 W W LAST HURRAH (ML=6/1), #4 DERBY DAY GOLD (ML=8/1),

HER SPEAKER'S ON - Multiple tries for this pony at FanDuel Horse Racing and still hasn't received her first victory here. W W LAST HURRAH - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last couple of months. Not the best of signs. 6/1 is just not enough of a price to take on most any mount that has run poorly in back to back efforts. DERBY DAY GOLD - This mare finished out of the top three on Jul 6th and wasn't even close last out either. Difficult to play any entrant in a short distance affair at 8/1 when she hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last two months. Don't think this less than sharp equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MORO MAESTRO - Having the best speed fig last race of 38 at FanDuel Horse Racing on July 27th. This filly has an excellent chance to win here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 MORO MAESTRO on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8700 Class Rating: 83

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 20, 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 LAUTREC 8/1
# 1 HARD ASTRAY 3/1
# 8 CAROM 5/1

LAUTREC looks to be a solid contender particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. This pony has a excellent win percentage in dirt routes. HARD ASTRAY - Overall the speed figs of this equine look respectable in this race. Ought to come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved swiftly to the front end recently. CAROM - Has been racing very well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figs of this field in his last competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Louisiana Downs - Race #4 - Post: 5:20pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#6 HELAIRE (ML=3/1)
#4 CRYPTOZONIC (ML=5/2)
#1 DUKE OF BLUE RIDGE (ML=9/2)


HELAIRE - Horse got a healthy speed figure last time he tried this distance. That number would be good enough to win today. Ran a lackluster race at Louisiana Downs in the last race. Racing on a fast track puts this horse at the top of my contenders list. Ranked at the top of the list in earnings per race. Another notice that this horse is classy. CRYPTOZONIC - This gelding has been claimed each of his last two starts. He figures to be tough in today's event. You have to like that recent race speed figure, 73, which is the top latest race speed fig of this group. DUKE OF BLUE RIDGE - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the first ride on Jul 15th. Should be acquainted with the animal even better in today's contest. The improved speed figs over the last 3 races is strong. Beavin drops him in this event in shape and ready to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 JUJU NINETEEN (ML=4/1), #5 JOHNNYSJOURNEY (ML=6/1), #3 LIL WOADIE (ML=8/1),

JUJU NINETEEN - Not likely for this entrant to make an impact with no recent success in a sprint clash. Don't believe this horse will do much running in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's class rating. JOHNNYSJOURNEY - This gelding hasn't had any positive efforts in short distance contests in the last sixty days. This animal hasn't been in the money in either of his last couple of outings. LIL WOADIE - Mediocre speed fig last time around the track at Louisiana Downs at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 HELAIRE to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip