Wednesday 8/21/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2024, 11:09 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/21/24

August 21, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Saratoga 2nd race – Post: 1:44 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 7-Bold Fortune.
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Bold Fortune was entered last Friday but wound up being a stewards’ scratch. Hopefully, this precocious youngster will get the opportunity today to show his stuff in this main track sprint for New York bred juveniles. The son of Central Banker has displayed the kind of speed that can win at first asking – assuming he breaks well – and if he leaves with his field the G. Weaver-trained gelding should have the necessary talent to be on or near the lead throughout. Those that have raced have speed figures that are far below par for the level and the other first timers don’t impress, so at 4-1 on the morning line let’s make him a confident win play and key in rolling exotic play.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Saratoga 6th Race – Post: 4:00 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: Marvelous Madison.
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf, so as of this writing we’re not sure if our top pick Marvelous Madison will remain in this modest New York-bred affair. If not, remember her for the next time she is entered. A good moving athlete with a smooth way of traveling, she was especially impressive in an easy breeze last month over the Oklahoma course around dogs (4f, :50.3b tc du) last month and has done everything right since for a barn that has solid stats with the first time starter angle. She is listed at 4-1 but with scratches and main track entrants drawing in, who knows what to expect on the tote?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2024, 11:09 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#6 Hope She Comes	She has had a lot of chances, but I think she's going to get a beautiful trip in a race with a couple committed early burners who should ensure a fair tempo while having the added benefit of denying the chalk an easy run from the fence.
#1 Needed	She might air in here, but she also has a couple pace players lined up outside of her in this group that could complicate her trip. She proved a good fit at the local level last out, but the price probably won't be much.
#7 Next Dot	She offered little resistance late in the last one, and she is another who is getting short on excuses, but she is capable of a bit better and might hang around for a piece today.
Race Summary	Hope She Comes has a little bit of plugging/grinding ability that might serve her well today. Think something like any of her last three will get the job done. Hoping she's playable as maybe the second choice.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#1 Declared	He has some tables to turn out of those recent starts, but he might still have a bit of room to run into better form with just three starts this year. Some appeal with a potentially efficient trip waiting for him from the inside.
#2 Grounded	He has to do a little proving today on class while meeting a guy outside of him who just landed a stakes score here, but his last two have been super sharp, and he might be the most committed up front again today. One of the ones.
#3 Twilight Dancer	Not much to argue with here after he rattled off his third win of the season last time out going long in stakes company, and he should be in a nice spot while watching it unfold early.
Race Summary	Declared should offer an OK price, and I'm hoping he can just save ground and stay in touch the entire way while trying to join on the far turn.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 Crowning Prince	He needs to come forward a bit to land this, but he drops in for this $15,000 tag for the first time and owns a little bit of pace in a race that doesn't seem to have a ton of cheap speed. Think he can attack the couple other early player drawn inside.
#2 Last Post	He should be in a great spot while up close throughout, and he has been a good fit with the local company at this level. One of the obvious players.
#1 Chips Legacy	Wouldn't be a shock if the inside pace shook off the other challengers to score, but he has already had a couple chances at this level and might be dealing with the top choice breathing down his neck the whole way.
Race Summary	Crowning Prince would be interesting here at something shorter than the 10/1 ML offering, as I'm hoping he'll be in attack mode from the break while having a chance to put this thing away into the lane.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2024, 11:10 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#7 RUNNING STATUE (10-1)	Longshot stab in wide open race off a long series of workouts.
#2 BOBBY ROCKY JAKE (2-1)	Earned top two speed figures in field for a higher claiming tag.
#1 DOCSGOTALLTHECANDY (8-1)	Troubled start in well-bet debut seven weeks ago, expect better.
Race Summary	RUNNING STATUE nestled in a couple good gate workouts on a tab that began in March. Her trainer is on a 3-for-12 run with maiden claimers and her dam was a second-out MSW winner and $102k earner. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#3 PUSSYCAT (8-1)	Gets Lasix, takes some catching, too good of a price to pass up.
#6 MINARI (10-1)	Took money in useful debut, takes class hike, gets Cedeno.
#1 PURRING (7-2)	Rallied into photo-finish view in last pair, the latest against a slow pace.
Race Summary	PUSSYCAT set a pressured pace at 7F and was overhauled by the four deepest closers in a MSW test at Colonial Downs. She gets Lasix and might forget to stop today as the clear pace controller. Bet to win and place and play a 3/1,6/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#3 SHARP RED EAGLE (8-1)	Can make good use of his speed, question of readiness.
#4 WORA (9-2)	Ran 1-2-3 in 5F turf sprints before he was beaten favorite last out.
#1 DARK TIMBER (5-2)	Switches back to turf after winless allowance run on dirt this year.
Race Summary	SHARP RED EAGLE showed improved speed with blinkers when last seen a year ago and can use it well in this spot if he’s ready to go. He was entered four times on turf in the last two months but scratched after three were switched to the main track. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2024, 11:12 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 3	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 51 • Purse: $24,200 • Post: 1:35P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SHAMANS IMAGE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MS. DEBBIE ALAN: Horse ranks in the t op three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MY DEAR VALENTINE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
3	SHAMANS IMAGE	3/1	5/2
5	MS. DEBBIE ALAN	9/2	5/1
1	MY DEAR VALENTINE	2/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	SHAMANS IMAGE	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	50	26	32.4	24.2	19.7
5	MS. DEBBIE ALAN	5	9/2	Trailer	54	16	43.2	20.2	11.2
1	MY DEAR VALENTINE	1	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	13.3	39.8	36.3
4	SUPER SCAMP	4	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	35	18	31.6	22.6	14.6
2	IAMGOINGTOMAKEIT	2	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	52	17	26.5	16.1	11.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2024, 11:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 4	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 4-7) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $7,500 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 2:01P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 21 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. FANCY SCEPTER is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FANCY SCEPTER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the di stance/surface. KHOZY COLBY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MELODY'S KISS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dir t or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
7	FANCY SCEPTER	5/1	4/1
2	KHOZY COLBY	6/5	9/2
6	MELODY'S KISS	4/1	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	FANCY SCEPTER	7	5/1	Front-runner	72	66	48.1	45.2	37.7
2	KHOZY COLBY	2	6/5	Alternator/Stalker	71	53	56.0	62.6	60.6
4	LIL' LATE LUCK	4	5/1	Trailer	64	50	33.8	45.4	37.4
6	MELODY'S KISS	6	4/1	Trailer	49	70	3.8	66.4	61.9
1	ONTHISHARVESTMOON	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	41	45.0	34.0	23.0
5	BRUNO BARBER GIRL	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	47	28.0	38.8	28.3
3	SWEETEST MOMENT	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	41	34	8.6	28.0	16.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2024, 11:14 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $43520 Class Rating: 77

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 5 FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 RUBIA 9/5
# 3 DREAM ON STORMY 30/1
# 8 WALK STREET 8/1

I think RUBIA is a competitive choice. Overall the Speed Figures of this equine look very strong in this contest. Earned a very good speed figure last time out. Has been running solidly and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. DREAM ON STORMY - The average class rating of 54 makes this entrant tough to beat. This filly has some longshot angles I like to play. WALK STREET - Is a solid contender - given the 63 speed figure from her most recent race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2024, 11:15 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 99

BUCCHERO H. IND - R8 - FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BRED, THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. NO NOMINATION FEE, $150 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $100 TO START WITH $100,000 GUARANTEED. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING OF ENTRIES FOR A FEE OF $625 WHICH INCLUDES ENTRY AND STARTING FEES. AFTER PAYING 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 STRONG TIDE 8/5
# 3 ZOLO 8/1
# 10 LEADING THE CHARGE 7/2

STRONG TIDE is the strongest bet in this race. Has been racing solidly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Could wake up with Lasix change (on Lasix) today. Tough to pass on this horse with Morales in the saddle. ZOLO - Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this pony look quite good in this contest. Had one of the best speed figures of this field in his last competition. LEADING THE CHARGE - Boasts reliable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. Has been running admirably and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2024, 11:16 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #7 - Post: 6:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#5 RADIANT REBEL (ML=8/1)
#2 HONDURAS PASSION (ML=6/1)
#6 SHORT STACK (ML=5/2)

RADIANT REBEL - Lozada rode this horse for the initial time in the last race and comes right back today. This filly is utmost in earnings per start. Take a good look at this one in the saddling ring. Maiden is moving to the main track, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to be a winner for the first-time. HONDURAS PASSION - Always watch out for the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a solid contest on July 30th. Handicapping information show this thoroughbred with three improving Equibase speed figures. Castillo should be on a horse ready to win today. SHORT STACK - This mare should give a good account of herself in today's affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MRS. MACOMBER (ML=2/1), #4 UNO PEA (ML=7/2),

MRS. MACOMBER - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint affairs lately. Improbable to see her doing it this time either. UNO PEA - She showed not much at all in the last affair. In any race of 7 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been sharp in sprint affairs recently.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - RADIANT REBEL - Class rating today of 63. Taking a big decrease in the level of competition and should wake up against easier company. Worth a bet.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 RADIANT REBEL on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	None

Wednesday 8/21/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 8/21/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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