Thursday 8/22/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Del Mar - Race #3

#5 Semper Invictus	Taking a little midrange price swing with this guy whose mild finishing form is some of the only of its kind on the page. Blinkers and the added ground might lead to a slightly more tactical closing effort.
#6 Canada Gate	He just missed here with similar last time out, but the price is likely to be short again, and this feels like a pretty fun group for a small crew.
#1 Concord Bridge	He hasn't been a serious threat through two starts, but he has some upside today while coming off the bench with some room to have grown into his 3-year-old season.
Race Summary	Semper Invictus has some upside while getting around two turns, and I'm hoping he's running on late when a few of the others have had enough.

Del Mar - Race #4

#4 Tiger of the Sea	Always love a Smiling Tiger on the turf, and she has brought a couple of forward works along the way ahead of this debut. Get a look at her ahead of this.
#2 Sophistry	Speed can be dangerous from the start here, but she has not been able to find that final gear just yet in the lane. Obvious player on style and form after a couple starts.
#1 Flamengo's Queen	Not sure she's finding the deepest special weight we're going to see all summer, so it wouldn't be any real surprise to see her score in her North American debut. Take a look.
Race Summary	Tiger of the Sea looks interesting enough at what might be a decent price while racing first out -- not sure who you're really supposed to be afraid of in here on paper.

Del Mar - Race #6

#4 Offlee Naughty	He hasn't been able to quite rediscover the 2023 form that helped him land a couple graded scores, but he hasn't seen a group like this in a really long time and could wake up on the class drop.
#7 City Exile	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here, as there's nothing but reliable form on his page that suggests he's in line for another great trip while up close throughout.
#2 Divin Propos	He didn't miss by much in a close finish last out, and he might still have a little upside while making the third start of the season today.
Race Summary	Offlee Naughty gets some class relief for this one after a few modest underneath finishes with better groups -- solely a class play today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#3 LIVING IN STYLE (4-1)	Perfect spot to use her speed, reunited with Maldonado, layoff the question.
#2 SURVIVAL ROSE (6-1)	Dropped to this level off claim, unwound too late to finish second as fave.
#5 BOH’S N O’S (5-	Been lacking stretch kick, cuts back to main-track sprint off the claim.
Race Summary	LIVING IN STYLE hasn’t raced in seven months, but her trainer is 3-for-4 with long layoff types recently and she drops in for the cheapest tag of her career. She raced up close but was unhurried to the turn in her 6F win with Maldonado aboard two back. She wore down the pace setter and was well clear until tiring in the final half-furlong. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#9 EXPECTING A WINNER (15-1)	In top form, stretches out off claim, changes riders.
#3 BROWN SUGA BABE (10-1)	Lone three-time winner in field drops below claim level for Ness.
#10 PAYOUT RATIO (4-1)	Carried speed to romp at one mile in latest start for $25,000.
Race Summary	EXPECTING A WINNER is worth a longshot stab after she rallied for third at 5-1/2F and 7F on the turf in her last two starts at this level. She was scratched by his new trainer August 2 but remains a good value play if she maintains current form. Bet to win and place and play a 3-9-10 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #6

#2 GOLDEN TABBY (4-1)	Honest, hard-hitting, stakes-placed sprinter makes third start of cycle.
#5 SUSAN’S MULE (5-2)	Sped away from the favorites in six-horse field at Laurel at 6F.
#1 DEEDS OF LOVE (8-1)	Rallied to win both 5-1/2F starts on ‘off’ main track.
Race Summary	GOLDEN TABBY is an ultra-consistent sprinter, should sit an ideal stalking trip and won the last two times Rodriguez rode. She’s nearing $400,000 in earnings with a 10-21 record and has been dismissed at 2-1 odds or less in her last 10 starts. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne
PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race 2	WPS (12% Takeout) / $1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) / $1 Daily Double
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 54 • Purse: $37,000 • Post: 2:38P
FOR ILLINOIS REGISTERED, CONCEIVED AND/OR FOALED. MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. IRISH SPARK is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * IRISH SPARK: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ISABELLA'S BEAUT Y: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. I DID THE MATH: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within t he last 30 days.
4	IRISH SPARK	3/1	7/2
8	ISABELLA'S BEAUTY	9/2	7/1
6	I DID THE MATH	5/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	ISABELLA'S BEAUTY	8	9/2	Front-runner	68	35	85.3	33.2	29.2
1	SANITARIUM	1	6/1	Front-runner	68	22	82.5	20.9	14.4
3	LIONS LAW	3	15/1	Front-runner	58	44	63.2	19.2	8.7
4	IRISH SPARK	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	60	51	59.2	50.4	44.4
6	I DID THE MATH	6	5/2	Trailer	44	47	15.0	43.2	36.2
7	THE LAST THRILL	7	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	55	41	43.8	40.2	31.2
2	FEATURED POWER	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	27	32.2	24.0	9.5
5	JACQUEK	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Saratoga
PURCHASE

Saratoga - Race 5	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 5 &6, Pick 3 ($1) (5-7) Pick 6 ($1) (5-10)
Claiming $35,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $55,000 • Post: 3:27P
(UP TO $9,570 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. IMPROBABLE JOURNEY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * IMPROBABLE JOURNEY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. THREE ZERO: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. FORTUNE'S NEPHEW: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the d istance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
2	IMPROBABLE JOURNEY	9/5	7/2
9	THREE ZERO	15/1	5/1
4	FORTUNE'S NEPHEW	3/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	IMPROBABLE JOURNEY	2	9/5	Front-runner	96	86	96.0	90.4	86.4
8	FOR SOME REASON	8	12/1	Front-runner	77	81	88.6	76.2	63.7
9	THREE ZERO	9	15/1	Front-runner	91	89	82.4	84.6	76.6
1	UPSIDE POTENTIAL	1	5/1	Front-runner	85	83	67.3	79.3	70.3
4	FORTUNE'S NEPHEW	4	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	95	89	71.8	76.2	68.7
5	STINGY	5	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	89	80	71.6	76.9	64.9
7	EXPRESS CRUISER	7	20/1	Stalker	91	82	69.2	78.8	65.3
6	MAGNIFICENT MILE	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	81	64.2	77.4	67.9
3	ANTHRACITE	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	78	66.2	77.0	64.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 55

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 MARTINI'S BANK 7/5
# 5 LET'S GO MO 10/1
# 4 TRECHMO GIRL 8/1

MARTINI'S BANK is my choice. Could best this group here, showing respectable figures of late. Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me give the nod to this filly. The speed fig of 59 from her latest race looks respectable in here. LET'S GO MO - Must be given a shot given the class of races run as of late. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Aguilar will probably have this mare in excellent position to win the race. TRECHMO GIRL - Is a key contender - given the 50 speed figure from her most recent race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 4:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,600 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#4 DIAMOND CRUSH (ML=6/1)
#5 SWIRLING DANCER (ML=12/1)
#3 LOADED VIXEN (ML=8/1)
#6 KNOW HOW (GB) (ML=3/1)


DIAMOND CRUSH - I wouldn't worry too much about the vacation; this mare is ready to run today. Generally, I don't like to see a mare run against the males like she did October 27th. Good to see she's back with her own sex today. Dropping in Equibase class figure points from her Oct 27th race at Woodbine. Based on that information, I will give this one the edge. This mare's last speed rating garnered on October 27th is in the top spot in last race Equibase speed figures. SWIRLING DANCER - Dropping in class rating points from her August 8th race at Woodbine. Based on that information, I will give this horse the advantage. I like this one. Finished in front of today's morning-line choice last out at Woodbine, and I think she will do well versus this field today. Last out, finished sixth on the soft turf at Woodbine. Have to give a better effort right here. LOADED VIXEN - Faced tougher in the last race at Fort Erie. Based on class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of top contenders. Ran a less than stellar race at Fort Erie in the last race. Racing under better track conditions puts this mare at the top of my contenders list. KNOW HOW (GB) - Trainer Armata moves this thoroughbred down the class scale to face a weaker class today. Look for a strong race this time out. Jock hops back atop after getting to know the mount by riding last out. That's always a positive sign. Look for this mare to run better in this race. Last event at Woodbine finishing seventh on the soft turf is no indication of her true talent.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 HOT OMELET (ML=7/2), #2 REMEMBERING RHODA (ML=4/1), #7 MISS BOBBIT (ML=8/1),

HOT OMELET - This mare garnered a speed rating in her last affair which probably isn't good enough today. REMEMBERING RHODA - Looked like she was in good form on August 1st. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. When checking today's Equibase class figure, she will have to earn a much better speed fig than last race out to battle in this dirt sprint. MISS BOBBIT - This horse has no victories in her last ten efforts. She's probably not worth the price on the win end today. Granted the last race was nice, finishing third. The lack of any recent activity raises some concerns though.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 DIAMOND CRUSH is going to be the play if we are getting 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 87

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 JIMMY SLICE 9/2
# 6 BREAKABLE CODE 5/2
# 1 CHUY GARZA Y. G. 6/1

JIMMY SLICE looks very good to best this field. Shows signs of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 77 speed rating which is one of the best in this group of animals. This gelding has a good win percentage in dirt sprint races. Must be given a chance based on the very good speed figure earned in the last affair. BREAKABLE CODE - With a strong 79 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. Must be considered given the class of races run lately. CHUY GARZA Y. G. - The average class figure alone makes this entrant a contender. Williams has him trained admirably to break rapidly out of the gate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Belterra Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 61

Rating:

#2 TEN BITS (ML=6/1)
#3 AMERICAN SILVER (ML=2/1)


TEN BITS - Short has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to beware of the longer priced half. Don't often see a beneficial return on investment like +160. This rider/trainer duo has done well together over the last year. Sosa was aboard this colt last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Short enters him at a similar class today. I'd expect an improved performance. AMERICAN SILVER - This thoroughbred coming off a sharp contest in the last 30 days is a strong challenger in my opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BALAMOR (ML=3/1), #6 KOHAKU (ML=7/2), #4 KLAY B EVEN MONEY (ML=4/1),

BALAMOR - This racer hasn't been near the victor at the wire lately. Today's contest is 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance race in the last couple of months. Not the greatest of signs. KOHAKU - Tough to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as often as this one does. 7/2 odds isn't enough for this one when examining the most recent outings. KLAY B EVEN MONEY - The fifth place finish position in the last affair was not that great.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 TEN BITS to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip