Friday 8/23/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-23-2024, 07:49 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Meadows Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 23, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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The Meadows has a Friday evening 13-race card ready to roll featuring Pennsylvania breds. The headliner goes in Race 8 when a field of 7 two-year-old fillies battle in the Meadow Cheer for a share of a $89,516 purse. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 10, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10 (7:52 PM EST)

2-Country Dancing (5-1)-Willing to take a swing after not the best of trips in last and the switch to Chris Lems should help the price. Looking for an aggressive start and to be on the point or in the pocket. Should be in the hunt and would use in exactas as well.
7-Odss On Aces Full (9/5)-Comes off a nice effort to win. Using but will likely be bet down and this will be its Meadows debut. Even if the Tony Algana pupil doesn't leave hard, Yannick Gingras should be in position to catch the leaders and roll by down the lane.

Race 11 (8:10 PM EST)

5-Brooklyn Wolf (7/2)-Was in tall cotton in last and can be competitive versus this crew. Should have the gate speed to get the top and it will be up to Dave Palone to provide a well-rated trip.
7-Waitingforguffman (2-1)-Ronnie Wrenn needs to find a decent early seat but has been facing tougher and should relish the company. The Burke trainee could be bet down, and this trainer-driver combo posts 32% winners.

Race 12 (8:28 PM EST)

1-Mister Miracle (3-1)-Gets post relief, class relief and Aaron Merriman gets the nod. Doesn't have big gate speed but versus this kind has enough to take control when the wings fold. Recent form has been dull but has won 4 of 13 at the Meadows and has no excuse for not taking another picture tonight.

Race 13 (8:46 PM EST)

1-Idiosyncratic (2-1)-Drops to this level in last and couldn't touch a well-meant winner. This will be the 3rd start on Lasix and hasn't connected for a picture. Wrenn should be out and rolling, could make every call a winning one and post another win for the Burke brigade.

$5.00 Late Pick 4

2,7/5,7/1/1
Total Bet=$20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-23-2024, 07:49 AM

Charles Town Late Pick 4 for Friday, Aug. 23

August 23, 2024 | By Frank Carulli

CHARLES TOWN LATE PICK 4
Friday, Aug. 23, 2024

Charles Town will award more than $3 million in purse money on the 13-race card this Friday, Aug. 23. It’s an historic night for 3/4-mile West Virginia oval that opened its doors 91 years ago. The tracks two signature races – The Grade 2 Charles Town Oaks and Charles Town Classic go for $750,000 and $1 million, respectively, kicking off the 50-cent Late Pick 4 wager that carries a guaranteed $100,000 pool. 1/ST BET and Xpressbet players be sure to opt into the promo to play this sequence for your share of 2 million 1/ST Rewards wager points.

CT 10th race (9:40 p.m. EST) --The 10 entrants in the main body of the Charles Town Oaks are a combined 12/5-4-3 at the 7F distance, including two graded stakes winners and two Grade 1-placed sophomore fillies. If speed carries in this two-turn sprint, MYSTIC LAKE looms dangerous after she set a rapid pace in the Grade 3 Victory Ride last out but got caught by 3-to-5 favorite Emery (4-6, $452K), who came back to run second in the Grade 1 Test. PRINCESS MADISON and ROSWELL seek their first stakes victory after they battled 5- and 6-wide in the stretch to finish 1-2 in a six-figure allowance at Saratoga. They finished well clear of Tricky Temper, who won the restricted Union Avenue Stakes by 3 lengths last Friday at Saratoga. MY MANE SQUEEZE overcame post 10 for the second time this year when she won the Grade 2 8Belles at Churchill Downs and faces a similar task again, albeit with a shorter run to the first turn. Don’t discount HAULIN ICE, whose first long sprint try – and second start for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. -- produced a runaway minor stakes victory. She’s 7-to-2 on the morning line with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard.

CT 11th race (10:20 p.m. EST) -- Defending Charles Town Classic champ SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING posted triple-digit Beyer speed figures in his three graded stakes victories at 1-1/8 miles. He controlled a moderate pace from the outset last year, responded to urging on the third turn and won easily. He was bumped at the start and remained prominent until the eighth pole while chasing speedy winner Arthur’s Ride in the Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga last out. BENDOOG will try to give Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott his third Classic win in the last four years. He was bumped at the start, raced 4-wide on the backstretch and ‘seized command’ at the top of the stretch in the Grade 2 Suburban at 1-1/4 miles, only to get caught by deep closing second favorite Crupi.

CT 12th race (10:50 p.m. EST) -- MAGGIE’S GIRL conquered three distances in winning 8 of 13 starts at Charles Town, most as the odds-on favorite. But the 4-year-old West Virginia-bred filly draws post 10 in the $40,000 Autumn Stakes on the cutback from a long sprint and seeks her first stakes victory. Jeff Runco, the track’s all-time leading trainer with more than 3,000 wins, sends out four-time allowance winner DREAMY SONDE off a three-month layoff and recent :35-1/5 bullet workout. BELLA MELA is an ultra-consistent allowance sprinter looking to top $100,000 in 4-1/2F earnings.

CT 12th race (11:20 p.m. EST) -- Taking two first-time starters and going 3-deep overall in the Maiden Special Weight finale. The aforementioned Jeff Runco is 9-for-26 with debut 3-year-olds the last three years and – get this – 22 of them were dismissed at 5-2 odds or less. Have to use SUBTLE STORM as a result. CANDY TRICKS chased an 8-to-5 debut runaway in vain but held second as the odds-on choice in a blazing :51-3/5. BUCKPASSING WAY could be the sleeper for a hot barn. Her dam, Metal Firecrakcer, was a 9-3/4-length first-out winner and $179k earner with a 23/5-7-4 record.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
CT 10th Race: 2, 4, 5, 9, 10
CT 11th Race: 5, 7
CT 12th Race: 2, 3, 10
CT 13th Race: 2, 6, 7
Cost: $45

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-23-2024, 07:51 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saratoga’s Personal Ensign Stakes | Fr

August 22, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Some of the top fillies and mares in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff division clash Friday at Saratoga in a major lead-in to Travers Weekend. The mile and one-eighth Personal Ensign, named for the Champion Mare and 1988 Distaff winner who retired unbeaten in 13 starts, boasts a Champion of its own in the field of five.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Personal Ensign (Race 10):

#1-XIGERA: Last year’s Mother Goose winner captured 5 of 6 starts in 2023, but has failed to visit the winner’s circle in 3 starts this year since facing older fillies and mares. The daughter of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist has run all of her best races when able to press the early pace, and from the rail with a short run to the first turn, should be aggressively ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer Phil Bauer has had a dream Saratoga summer with 5 wins and 2 seconds from his first 11 starters.

#2-SOUL OF AN ANGEL: Lost the photo in Monmouth’s Grade 3 Molly Pitcher last month when nearly upsetting Idiomatic over 110 yards shorter in trip. She’s made a dramatic performance improvement in 3 starts since coming to the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn, which has had a remarkable run at Saratoga this summer with 9 winners. Late-running style will require a strong pace in front of her for success under Irad Ortiz Jr.

#3-RAGING SEA: Strong finisher has rallied to win Keeneland’s Grade 3 Doubledogdare and Saratoga’s Grade 2 Shuvee in recent outings, the latter over the same trip as the Personal Ensign. Trainer Chad Brown turns once again to Flavien Prat, whose 11 stakes wins at the current Spa meeting are far and away best of any rider. Daughter of Curlin’s only loss in her last 5 starts came when a non-threatening fourth in the local Grade 1 Ogden Phipps behind rematched rivals Randomized and Idiomatic. Provides the late-running half of an uncoupled Brown entry with front-running Randomized.

#4-IDIOMATIC: Last year’s Eclipse Award-winning Champion Older Male and Horse of the Year finalist is back to defend her crown in the Personal Ensign. Four-length victory here in ’23 was part of a 6-race winning streak that ended in a photo loss June 8 at the Spa in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps during the Belmont Stakes Festival. She’s now 1-and-1 in head-to-head matchups with Personal Ensign rematched rival Randomized. Brad Cox trainee has won 11 of 15 lifetime for more than $3.4 million, easily tops in the field in terms of victories and earnings. Like Raging Sea, she’s a daughter of Curlin. Beautiful Pleasure (1999-2000) was the last Personal Ensign winner to go back-to-back and the only to do so in the last 50 years.

#5-RANDOMIZED: Not only the second Chad Brown trainee in the lineup (along with Raging Sea), but also the second daughter of Nyquist (Xigera). Front-running filly is expected to tussle early with Idiomatic and Xigera over a course she absolutely loves. Randomized has won 3 straight here, including the Wilton, Grade 1 Alabama and the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. She’s 4: 3-1-0 in true, 2-turn races and 3-for-3 when paired with newly minted Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-23-2024, 07:52 AM

Scott Shapiro: Woodbine King's Plate Pick 5 | Friday

August 21, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Time for ‘take two’ of the 2024 King’s Plate after the featured event along with four other stakes races were cancelled last Saturday due to heavy rains in the Greater Toronto Area.

The good news for horseplayers though is those stakes were re-carded as part of an extremely fun 12-race slate at Woodbine on Friday afternoon. And of course, Xpressbet and 1/ST BET have brought back the 2M Rewards Point Hit Split Pick 5 promotion from last weekend. You just need to remember to register once again for the promo.

The $150k guaranteed sequence will be conducted over the final five races of the card, which not only includes the King’s Plate, but also the Bold Venture (G3) and Catch a Glimpse. Here are my thoughts:

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 8: Bold Venture (G3)

Grade: B+

Main Ticket: 6 Playmea Tune

Backups: None

Forecast: No doubt this year’s Bold Venture goes through #3 Patches O’Houlihan. Last year’s champion of the 6.5-furlong event over the all-weather has won 8 of 10 overall, including his first start of 2024 last out in the Pink Lloyd S.by six lengths. The son of Reload has the speed to control the early pace under jockey Sofia Vives and will be very tough to deny if able to set a moderate early tempo.

The defending champ is hard to knock, but I do prefer #6 Playmea Tune. The 4YO gelding has been awesome through two starts rattling off a pair of 95+ Beyers for trainer Josie Carroll. He draws outside Patches O’Houlihan and appears to have unlimited upside heading into his third try. I will lean on the son of Maclean’s Music to kick off the sequence.

Race 9: King’s Plate S.

Grade: C+

Main Ticket: 1 Jokestar; 2 Rafaroo

Backups: 7 My Boy Prince; 3 Essex Serpent

Forecast: The morning line in this year’s King’s Plate suggests it could be a two-horse race between a pair of Mark Casse trained runners in #3 Essex Serpent and the more experienced #7 My Boy Prince.

My Boy Prince comes into the biggest race of his career in search of his fourth straight win. Last out in the Plate Trial, the Cairo Prince colt overcame a terrible start to beat six rivals at odds of 1-5. He clearly has an affinity for the surface having won 5 of 6 over the Woodbine all-weather and has proven he can handle adversity. That said, one can certainly make the case we have seen the best he has to offer already.

Essex Serpent has a much different profile. The Honor Code gelding has only competed three times in the afternoon and just once at a route of ground. The lone two-turn start came in late June in the Marine (G3) when he stalked early and held sway late under jockey Patrick Husbands. Much like, My Boy Prince, Essex Serpent has done little wrong thus far, but his likely off odds will be too short to get excited about.

For those like myself hoping to separate in this year’s King’s Plate, the best hope is probably a fast early pace leading to some chaos in the lane as the speeds struggle to get the last couple of furlongs. Hopefully, that is #1 Jokestar who makes the fourth start of his 3YO campaign for trainer Kevin Attard. The son of Practical Joke is winless thus far in 2024 but has hit the board in 4 of 7 over the Woodbine all-weather and appears to be an improving gelding with the right running style. Emma-Jayne Wilson should be saving ground early throughout. I will also include #2 Rafaroo who has yet to cross the wire first through two starts but did finish second last out to My Boy Prince in the Plate Trial. The Stronach Stables colt has obvious upside.

Race 10: Catch A Glimpse S.

Grade: C+

Main Ticket: 7 Bullet

Backups: 2 Will Reign

Forecast: This sprint for 2YO fillies over the Woodbine turf named for the star Mark Casse conditioned filly from the mid 2010’s, looks like Casse’s race to lose again in 2024. He sends out three, including the favorite #7 Bullet. The $425k Keeneland September 2023 purchase kicked off her career with a win against stakes foes in the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies over the Gulfstream Park lawn and backed it up with a victory here in Toronto in the My Dear S. She draws favorably in the 7-hole and will beat this group if she can avoid regression in her third lifetime start.

The price options in this spot look up against it but perhaps Bullet’s stablemate #2 Will Reign can spring the minor upset. The War of Will filly enters the $150k event a maiden after being out finished by stablemate Abientot in her debut at Saratoga last month. She comes in off a bullet 3-furlong drill in 35.3 over the all-weather and is likely to benefit if the pace is hot early.

Race 11:

Grade: B

Main Ticket: 9 Classic Mo Town

Backups: 5 Ron’s Gizmo; 6 Cool Kiss

Forecast: The pace should be contentious in this second-level allowance event over the Inner Turf given the presence of #1 Never Surprised, #7 Makawa, #8 Mr. Who, and #11 Lord of War. This bodes well for #9 Classic Mo Town. The Marty Drexler trainee has been freshened up after running down lesser back on July 7. The son of Mo Town heads into his eighth start of 2024 in the best form of his career and should get a perfect mid-pack trip under Pietro Moran.

#5 Ron’s Gizmo also should benefit from the likely raceshape. The 7YO son of Giant Gizmo cuts back half a furlong after missing by a half-length against similar on Aug 4. He should be rolling late under Rafael Hernandez. #6 Cool Kiss is just 2 for 15 and is probably a better bet to hit the board than cross the wire first, but he too should benefit from a brisk first-half mile.

Race 12:

Grade: C+

Main Ticket: 2 Scored; 1 Zeena Swift; 6 Spectacular Force; 7 Ryo Amazing

Backups: None

Forecast: The King’s Plate card concludes with a maiden optional claimer at 7-furlongs where I will use several include #2 Scored. The Exaggerator filly makes her second start off a 6.5-month break and should have the tactical speed to find a comfortable pocket trip. #1 Zeena Swift also intrigues in her first start since the Fourth of July. With a clean break, jockey Justin Stein should have an opportunity to control the early tempo from his inside draw. #6 Spectacular Force is also worth including for Tec Racing after putting a nice late run on July 20 for Marty Drexler, as well as #7 Ryo Amazing who makes her first start since entering the Pat Parente barn.Hopefully, #3 Liam’s Awesome gets over bet off of consecutive off the pace runner-up efforts in Toronto.

Good luck in the Pick 5 on Friday afternoon!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-23-2024, 07:53 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #4

#1 Cullen J	He's one of the interesting debuters for me in here, so get a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this. Could see him liking the trip at an OK price. #3 Lord Dunmore is another who debuts with a similar profile.
#7 Kale's Angel	He couldn't quite stay in the final yards, but I like the pace he showed at first asking and wouldn't be shocked to see him carry it a bit better today.
#8 Cajun Gold	Tactical speed has some room to come forward off the debut run, and I like that he has already proven to have the kind of positional pace to stay close throughout. Wouldn't surprise.
Race Summary	Fun race here, and I'm wondering if Cullen J could be ready to graduate on debut. Looking to get one of the fresh faces near the fence in with the logical runners with experience.

Del Mar - Race #6

#2 Santarena	Mild worry about his long string of underneath shares without ever threatening a winner, but he has some versatility that will let his rider pick a spot while tracking the pace, and I think he should handle these on the move to the turf.
#6 Osage Creek	He could be sitting on something a bit better in the third start of the season, and there are a couple starts on his page that would make him tough if he brings similar today.
#5 Hurricane Way	There are a couple others who are more likely to find the board than this guy, but he has a little bounce-back potential while getting back to a turf sprint for the first time since his good debut run earlier this year. Maybe.
Race Summary	Santarena looks like the right one, and I think he might be able to tackle this group without too much trouble. Osage Creek and Hurricane Way have some midrange price appeal, too. #3 Mr. Mustache worth a look ahead of this as a potentially live debuter.

Del Mar - Race #8

#5 She's a Joker	Never sure which kind of effort she's going to bring, but she hinted at some life last out when getting back in for a tag, and I'm hoping she will settle into a perfect spot to get first jump while settled in just behind a couple more committed forward players.
#1 Harper's Gallop	She makes sense on the drop after trying that stakes group late last year off the claim, and she should find a pretty dreamy spot while tucked inside from the rail draw. Capable if she's ready to go.
#2 Big Mama Sue	She has some decent finishing form on her page, but she doesn't always bring her best stuff, so I wouldn't want to be here at an unappealing price. Chance with one of her better tries, and she has done good work here in the past. Possible.
Race Summary	She's a Joker has some midrange price appeal after turning in a better effort last out -- she was back on the grass while racing for a tag that day, hinting she might be able to bring something similar today against another group like this.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-23-2024, 07:53 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #2

#6 PINK DINGHY (9-5)	Nearly overcame troubled trip, dead-heated with next-out allowance winner.
#9 SPIRITED DEBATE (10-1)	Presque Isle invader led after a half mile in 13 of 18 starts, winning once.
#3 JUBA BOUND (4-1)	Held second in last three starts at this level, changes riders.
Race Summary	PINK DINGHY was shuffled back mid-turn, altered course and finished with a 5-wide rush to just miss as the odds-on favorite. He finished in a dead heat for second with Missionary, who came back to post a 62 Beyer speed figure in a 3-1/2-length allowance victory. Make a win and place wager on today’s Best Bet.

Charles Town - Race #4

#9 SIR ALFRED JAMES (10-1)	Classy 8-year-old starts fresh, too good to pass up at anywhere near 10-1.
#1 DEBIT CARD (7-2)	Edged clear late to win in second start off layoff and top $100k in 6-1/2F earnings.
#7 AL LOVES JOSIE (2-1)	Dueled, dug in, couldn’t stop trip sitter, goes from one top barn to another.
Race Summary	SIR ALFRED JAMES was stakes-placed twice as a 7-year-old en route to millionaire status and is working steadily for his second start this year. He was last seen setting the pace in a 6-1/2F stakes race at Turfway Park before giving way to three next-out winners who averaged a 97 Beyer and who have combined for a 19-78 overall record, two stakes wins, three graded stakes placing and more than $2 million in earnings. Don’t expect 10-1 on the light weight in the field, but expect a good effort. Bet to win and place and play a 1-7-9 exacta box.

Charles Town - Race #7

#1 HESSICA (5-2)	Brings A-game every time, projects dream trip in bid for second stakes win.
#2 BARBER’S POINT (2-1)	Three-race, wire-to-wire winning streak ended on sloppy track.
#5 SOMEDAY IS TODAY (20-1)	Chased odds-on runaway while wide on sloppy surface, needed race.
Race Summary	HESSICA has been a model of ultra consistency with jockey Antonio Lopez aboard, but she might be in peak form heading into the $75,000 Sadie Hawkins Stakes for West Virginia-bred fillies and mares. She tracked the dueling longshots from the same rail post and blew past them on the turn on her way to a smashing 6-1/2F allowance win last out. She should get plenty of pace to run at tonight. Bet to win and place.