Sunday 8/25/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-25-2024, 09:22 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 8/25/24

August 25, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Del Mar 3rd race – Post: 3:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 2-The Scent.
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Let’s take a flier with The Scent, a second time starter at 12-1 on the morning line in this state-bred maiden sprint for older horses. The son of Enticed had trained pretty well leading up to his debut but didn’t break well, made a bit of a move midway, but never mounted a rally through the lane when fifth of nine in a race he surely needed. He’ll add blinkers while retaining A. Aguilar, so the P. Aguirre-trained gelding seems likely to produce a forward move, one that makes him an attractive price chance in a wide open affair.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Del Mar 5th Race – Post: 4:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: Zip Om.
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Zip Om, out of the high class turf mare Unzip Me, made his debut sprinting on grass earlier this month over this course and distance and was a visually pleasing winner with a huge speed figure, one that makes him very tough to beat right back despite the raise into the first level allowance ranks. The C. Gaines-trained son of Om displayed good tactical speed to stalk the pace in hand and then came away when given his cue to graduate with plenty left by three widening lengths. From the rail he’s guaranteed a ground-saving, pressing trip which we expect he’ll take full advantage of. At 2-1 on the morning line, he’s an aggressive win play and rolling exotic single.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-25-2024, 09:22 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/25/24

August 25, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Saratoga 2nd Race – Post: 1:42 ET. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 1-Annexperience.
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Maiden state bred juvenile fillies square off in this turf dash that should be made to order for the debuting Annexperience, listed at 5/2 on the morning line. The daughter of Instagrand shows a sharp gate breeze earlier this month in :47.4bg, the fourth fastest of 182 for the distance, and while we didn’t view that workout we did see her at the Timonium Sale in May in an eye catching :10 2/5 preview move in which she displayed sharp action and a nice, athletic stride. Out of a mare by More Than Ready, the J. Englehart-trained filly certainly is bred for turf, so in an open fray let’s play her with a good degree of enthusiasm in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Saratoga 11th race – Post: 6:49 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 3-Gallant Greta.
Other Contenders: none.

Forecast: Gallant Greta was given an educational run when a solid fourth in her debut sprinting on dirt in what already has proven to be a productive affair and should deliver a significant forward move with that bit of experience behind her. Certainly bred to enjoy two turns and grass, the sophomore daughter of Twirling Candy from a mare by Empire Maker is a smart looking filly with plenty of substance and actually moves quite well for a filly of her size. This stretch out in trip should allow this first time Lasix user to secure a comfortable early position and then provide her with every chance when the pressure is turned on from the quarter pole home. The M. Maker-trained New York bred filly retains T. Gaffalione and looks like a good gamble on the tote and in the exotics at or near her morning line of 6-1.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-25-2024, 09:22 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis

August 25, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

The Red Mile has a 17-race card, and the $1.00 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (6:40 PM EST)

3-Karl (7/5)-The post draw should work well, and it would take a bad day at the office for Karl not to win. Anything is possible but not going to look for the unlikely to happen. Currently, the Takter pupil has 5 wins in 6 starts at Lex and should be 6 for 7 at the Red Mile when this race is over.

Race 7 (6:59 PM EST)

1-Bucketlist Hanover (3-1)-Got the 2-hole and stayed there in its Red Mile debut. Comes back in sequence and should be a player. If the veteran improves in the 2nd race on the oval it could be picture time.
7-Diaboli Hanover (2-1)-Finished about a length behind #1 in the last start. Not loving the short price at all but should be there at the wire if minds its manners.

Race 8 (7:18 PM EST)

4-Clapton (5-1)-Stayed inside in last but kept coming. Finished off the mile with a 55.4 back half and should offer a square price. Andrew McCarthy takes the lines for the Erv Miller pupil and will look for continued improvement.
7-Luminary (6/5)-Faces a softer group so that's why the 6/5 morning line. Comes off some even efforts but this looks like a beatable field. Can't leave off the ticket but also can't fully trust.

Race 9 (7:37 PM EST)

1-Cover The Spread (2-1)-Comes off a sharp effort leaving from the 7-hole against this kind to win. That was a nice performance in its 2nd lifetime start and is a logical play at a small price tonight.
5-Lafitte (7-1)-Broke stride in its Lex debut then got a wide trip but still gained ground down the lane in a quick mile. The price is right to use and could be in the mix with a smooth trip.
7-Hessomestranger (6/5)-Went off at 5/2 in its 1st start at the Red Mile and was used aggressively off the gate. Did get the top but lost some steam down the lane to lose by a neck. Dexter Dunn is in the bike again, so might be bet down and needs to mind its manners. Cover The Spread rallied out of the 2-hole to win last time, and maybe the outcome will be reversed tonight.

$2.00 Early Pick 4

3/1,7/4,7/1,5,7
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-25-2024, 09:23 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #5

#1 Zip Om	Debut score was pretty solid going short on the turf here earlier this month, and he should be in line for another really cozy trip from the inside. Think he's tough right back while rising to try winners.
#11 Supernal	He turned in a solid turf debut last time out when rallying well for a small share, and he might be able to find a more tactical trip today if he can avoid some of that early trouble he encountered last out.
#5 Irish Royalty	He has found this level just a little tough, so a minor award might be the best to hope for today even if he's not totally overmatched in the win column.
Race Summary	Zip Om looked like he might be OK in that debut score here, and he has a right to be really dangerous with any reasonable upside today.

Del Mar - Race #8

#2 Chismosa	She beat the likely chalk earlier this year, and she's capable of something better than she showed behind that one at Los Al last out. Expecting a much more competitive try today.
#5 Sweet Azteca	She just drilled similar at Los Al in July, and she should be in a good spot right up near the top to prompt and pounce again. The clear one to beat at a short price.
#3 Ascendancy	This is a deeper spot than she has seen in some of those previous dirt tries, but her form over the footing is pretty reliable, and I wouldn't be shocked to see her stay on for a share.
Race Summary	Chismosa is the only one to hand Sweet Azteca a loss in her career, and I'm hoping she'll offer a fair price in search of a bounce-back performance that might help her handle that chalk again today.

Del Mar - Race #9

#6 Big Juanito	He was a decent fit with similar enough company last time out, and I'm hoping the presence of a few mild forward players might be enough to set things up for him to run on late. Midrange price chance.
#4 Quintecents	He makes a lot of sense with competitive form on paper, but he always tends to find one or two of them a little bit too tough, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get in the mix early and settle for another share. Should graduate one of these days, but I also thought that was the case with him 10 starts back last year....
#8 Quality Wins	He's another who fits well here while dropping back in for a tag, but he's likely to take some cash and came up short against similar at 8/5 and 9/5 in some recent starts. Obvious threat at a likely underlaid price.
Race Summary	Big Juanito ran well last out and could stay in the frame with something similar here, and I'm guessing he's going to offer another decent enough price despite the good try last out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-25-2024, 09:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Saratoga
PURCHASE

Saratoga - Race 4	Exacta ($1), Quinella ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 4 &5 Pick 3 ($1) (4-6), Mandatory Pay Pick 5 (.50) (4-8)
Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Inner Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 103 • Purse: $200,000 • Post: 2:48P
WEST POINT H. PRESENTED BY TRUSTCO BANK - (RAIL AT 9 FEET). INNER TURF A HANDICAP FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. LASIX NOT ALLOWED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME PURSUANT TO HISA RULE 4212. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $200 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANYTHE NOMINATION; $1,000 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $1,000 TO START. FOR HORSES NOT ORIGINALLY NOMINATED, A SUPPLEMENTAL PAYMENT OF $1,000 IN ADDITION TO THE ENTRY AND STARTING FEES MAY BE MADE AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO THE PUBLICATION OF WEIGHTS.THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED 55% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 12% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 4% TO FIFTH AND 3% DIVIDED EQUALLY AMONGST THE REMAINING FINISHERS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER. THE NEW YORK RACING ASSOCIATION RESERVES THE RIGHT TTO TRANSFER THIS RACE TO THE MAIN TRACK. CLOSED SATURDAY, AUGUST 10, 2024 WITH 14 NOMINATIONS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface ( dirt or turf) is at least 50. DAKOTA GOLD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CITY MAN: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JERRY THE NIPPER: Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
4	SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS	1/2	9/2
1	DAKOTA GOLD	6/1	6/1
2	CITY MAN	3/1	6/1
5	JERRY THE NIPPER	10/1	7/1
3	ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA	3	8/1	Front-runner	104	97	99.8	93.6	85.6
5	JERRY THE NIPPER	5	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	109	105	97.8	102.6	96.1
4	SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS	4	1/2	Trailer	112	99	94.8	103.2	98.7
1	DAKOTA GOLD	1	6/1	Trailer	108	98	86.0	100.2	97.2
2	CITY MAN	2	3/1	Trailer	106	102	84.4	100.0	94.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-25-2024, 09:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax Downs
PURCHASE

Ajax Downs - Race 2	Win / Place / Show / Daily Double / Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Speed Index • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 1:21P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WITH AN AVERAGE SPEED INDEX OF 80 AND UNDER.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PHIL JEFFERSON: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DOUBLE DASHIN CORONA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BEWITCHIN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in averag e Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RELENTLESS BETTY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
1	PHIL JEFFERSON	5/2	7/2
4	DOUBLE DASHIN CORONA	3/1	4/1
3	BEWITCHIN	8/5	7/1
5	RELENTLESS BETTY	2/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	PHIL JEFFERSON	1	5/2	Slow	70	66	6.5	0.0	0.0
2	RUSHIN FOR DOUGH	2	9/2	Slow	60	53	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	BEWITCHIN	3	8/5	Average	61	60	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	DOUBLE DASHIN CORONA	4	3/1	Fast	69	60	2.8	0.0	0.0
5	RELENTLESS BETTY	5	2/1	Average	57	55	5.4	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-25-2024, 09:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $200000 Class Rating: 97

YADDO H. SAR - R10 - A HANDICAP FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. LASIX NOT ALLOWED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME PURSUANT TO HISA RULE 4212. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $200 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION; $1,000 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $1,000 TO START. FOR HORSES NOT

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 MOONAGE DAYDREAM 6/1
# 5 SILVER SKILLET 8/5
# 9 MARVELOUS MAUDE 8/1

MOONAGE DAYDREAM is the most favorable wager in this race. Will probably be one of the front-runners of the group going into the midpoint of the race. The Equibase speed fig of 101 from her most recent affair looks respectable in here. With a reliable 89 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. SILVER SKILLET - She has been moving soundly recently while recording very solid Equibase Speed Figures. Trainer has very strong win rate (17 percent) at this distance and surface. MARVELOUS MAUDE - Trainer has very solid win rate (22 percent) at this distance and surface. Reason to like this mare as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-25-2024, 09:25 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,700 Class Rating: 47

Rating:

#8 QUALITY MOON (ML=3/1)

QUALITY MOON - After the event aboard this horse on July 31st, the rider is going to 'know' the filly much better. Taking this jockey/trainer combination is a good move. This filly is in good form, having run a nice race on July 31st, finishing second.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SAHISH (ML=2/1), #9 LADY LEONA (ML=4/1), #1 WOMP (ML=8/1),

SAHISH - Don't believe this steed will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed fig was quite unimpressive when compared with today's class rating. LADY LEONA - That was simply not a very good exhibition in the last race. This pony ran a most unsatisfactory fig last time around the track. She shouldn't run much better and will probably suffer defeat today running that figure. WOMP - You figure that this animal is going to finish first just because she's always close. Just doesn't get the job done frequently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 QUALITY MOON is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-25-2024, 09:25 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #9 - Post: 5:19pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#4 COME DREAM WITH ME (ML=9/5)

COME DREAM WITH ME - This gelding is almost always on the board. The rider/conditioner twosome of Vasquez and Spatz has a strong return on investment together. Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a good effort in the last race within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 PERFORMANTE (ML=5/2), #8 AMAZING WOO (ML=3/1), #5 SUNDAY AT CHURCH (ML=8/1),

PERFORMANTE - This racer showed very liitle last out finishing fifth. Don't see any hint of any improvement today. Improbable that the speed rating he registered on August 16th will be good enough in this event. AMAZING WOO - I just don't possess a good feeling about this runner in this race. SUNDAY AT CHURCH - This gelding almost certainly won't be really close at the wire.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - COME DREAM WITH ME - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top horse in earnings per start. This magnificent animal looks good to me so I'm making a prime investment on him.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #4 COME DREAM WITH ME on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-25-2024, 09:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Timonium

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $45,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BEACH COWBOY 7/5
# 5 WATCH OUT WORLD 5/1
# 7 WHITE SERIES 5/1

BEACH COWBOY is the top bet in this race. Has to be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. There is a competitive possibility of an increase in speed as this gelding changes blinkers (on) for the first time. Magee has him trained admirably to break promptly out of the starting gate. WATCH OUT WORLD - He has been travelling soundly lately while recording very solid Speed Figures. Will more than likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the halfway point of the affair. WHITE SERIES - Has run admirably when running a dirt sprint race. Must be given a shot in this contest if only for the quite good speed fig recorded in the last contest.