Tuesday 8/27/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#8 Joys of Summer	Get a feeling this one might be ready to go in a race in which all of the barns have shown some level of ability in scoring in spots like this. Check her out in the paddock and parade, but I'm hoping she's got a touch of early pace in a race without much of it on paper. Wouldn't let her beat me.
#7 Timeless Love	Barn has #4 Tessitura in here with a big pedigree, too, but this one draws Morales to the saddle, and the team has landed a few races like this in the last couple years here. Get a look at them both.
#9 Art Nouveau	Rider of the top choice takes off after a couple solid efforts to open the career -- don't read too much into that, but it's not nothing, either. This one draws well to spy the speed and seems like an obvious one to cover.
Race Summary	Joys of Summer is one of the fresh faces in here with a little appeal, and I get a gut feeling it might be her or the one drawn just inside of her from a forward spot.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#6 Vino Couragio	He made a mild move in the route debut before flattening out, but that might have him set for something better today at another decent price. Don't think he's out of the question.
#2 Missionary Man	Not much from him in the track-and-fade debut run on the Ellis grass, but he was 29/1 that day and may have some upside with that race under his belt. Not excited, but he's worth considering.
#3 Notfanutin	He moved up in his local debut here at second asking, but I'm not totally sold on how that's going to translate around two turns. Still, that race seems competitive here.
Race Summary	Vino Couragio has some midrange price appeal in a spot where he might be able to sustain a modest move better with a two-turn run to his name. Enough to like.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#6 Adios Ashwood	The likely chalk drawn one stall inside is probably going to be a handful here, but this guy owns the only two serious finishing tries on the page in this race, so I'm hoping he sits back and lets a few of the committed forward players hash it out early.
#5 Tarsus Warrior	Liked his debut run, but he's going to be a short price here while coming out of what felt like sharp race. He may have some company up top, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him land this as the best of the pace.
#4 Ophelia's Dream	Her even style could play well enough to help her along for a share, as she should get past at least a couple of these in the late stages. Not a ton of enthusiasm here, but she wouldn't knock me out of my chair.
Race Summary	Adios Ashwood has a couple finishing tries to his credit in a race without a lot of late punch, and I'm hoping the presence of the (formidable) Tarsus Warrior will keep the price playable.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #2

#2 STRASSE (5-2)	Starts fresh, holds tactical advantage if he averts slow-starting habit.
#4 I FEELLUCKY TONITE (9-5)	Finished third in all four starts locally, has solid numbers.
#1 TOUGH WORKOUT (15-1)	Reunited with Lake, who coaxed last win out of gelding in March.
Race Summary	STRASSE ‘rushed into contention’ after another slow start and dueled on the outside through the turn until the top pair passed by. He can be in control from the outset with an alert break in his second try at this level. Bet to win and place and play 2-1 and 2-4 exactas.

Parx - Race #4

#5 BEYOND A MILLION (5-2)	Late foot could translate to win in this spot, lack of pace a concern.
#6 MORE RANSOM (6-1)	New barn on 9-for-17 run, must use in all gimmick wagers.
#4 ANNA ROCKS (9-5)	Holds tactical edge, held for minor awards in three short fields in a row.
Race Summary	BEYOND A MILLION’s connections presumably waited to become eligible for this condition. She finished with good ‘late energy’ in her last four route races, perhaps enough to overcome the lack of pace in this field. She will have morning-line favorite ANNA ROCKS to run down, but at 5-2 odds is worth a win and place wager. Also play a 5,6/4,5,6/1,3,4,5,6 trifecta.

Parx - Race #6

#4 OLD HEAD (7-2)	Steady sprint form, re-claimed with 20/4-5-4 Parx record intact.
#3 BUCKS SOME (4-1)	Classy 9-year-old took step back in last pair, but she still merits long look.
#6 WISHING ONA PRAYER (2-1)	Can put speed to good use again in repeat attempt.
Race Summary	OLD HEAD’S last three sprints on a fast track produced a runaway victory, a runner-up finish to the 9-to-5 pace controller and a troubled third at 5-1/2F. She stretches out to a long sprint, gets in light-weighted off the re-claim and gets the call for a win and place bet.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 1	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) * PICK 4 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 56 • Purse: $13,700 • Post: 1:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. FLURRY OF ROSES is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FLURRY OF ROSES: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SOULFUL TARA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TOMAKI: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race withi n the last 30 days. JOVIO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	FLURRY OF ROSES	2/1	3/1
4	SOULFUL TARA	5/1	6/1
6	TOMAKI	7/2	7/1
2	JOVIO	5/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	SOULFUL TARA	4	5/1	Front-runner	59	54	61.6	48.3	43.3
6	TOMAKI	6	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	51	53	68.3	46.5	40.0
2	JOVIO	2	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	55	51	57.8	42.9	35.4
3	DR G AND ALI	3	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	48	36	36.4	36.4	27.4
5	FLURRY OF ROSES	5	2/1	Trailer	71	53	42.6	55.2	50.7
1	MAJOR MAYHEM	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	47	43	35.1	38.4	29.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 1	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Philly BIG 5
Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 12:40
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SUENO PROFUNDO (ARG) is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SUENO PROFUNDO (ARG): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has th e highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	SUENO PROFUNDO (ARG)	6/5	2/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TOUGH WORKOUT	1	15/1	Front-runner	68	54	51.8	42.8	32.8
3	SUENO PROFUNDO (ARG)	3	6/5	Alternator/Front-runner	80	70	65.6	65.6	62.6
7	EDDIEMUSH	7	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	78	71	40.6	63.0	57.5
4	FENWICK JACK	4	7/2	Trailer	64	63	24.4	60.4	52.9
2	GAMERUN	2	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	72	65	34.6	62.0	55.5
6	MR. TUTTLE	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	58	41.4	51.8	40.3
5	FOOD FOODIE	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	73	5.2	51.3	40.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $25840 Class Rating: 93

IND - R7 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 27, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 STORM DADDY 5/2
# 13 FIREWATER JAKE 4/1
# 8 ONE LUCKY DAY 6/1

STORM DADDY has a solid shot to take this race. Lately Morales has been sizzling which may give the edge to this gelding. Morales has one of the top rider ROI's on the grounds, returning to players +42 percent. Had one of the best Equibase speed figs of this field in his last contest. FIREWATER JAKE - Has longshot potential and could prove victorious at big odds. Has a sharp shot for this race if you like back class.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,500 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#13 KATE'S CONCERTO (ML=8/1)
#3 AIN'T NO LADY (ML=4/1)


KATE'S CONCERTO - Lucas drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more data to figure that this horse has a shot at this level. Lucas brings her right back. I propose you stick with this live filly. AIN'T NO LADY - I believe the addition of blinkers today will help this filly focus her attention on racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TARTAN GREEN (IRE) (ML=7/5), #14 JAMMER INSURANCE (ML=9/2), #9 SEXARITO (ML=6/1),

TARTAN GREEN (IRE) - Just don't figure that she is pegged at the proper price at the probable odds. JAMMER INSURANCE - Notched a most unsatisfactory speed figure in the last race in a Maiden Special race on Jun 18th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that rating. SEXARITO - In the last race this questionable contender finished eighth. Doesn't bode well for her chances this time. This entrant ran a quite unimpressive rating last out. She shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's event running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#13 KATE'S CONCERTO is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Thistledown - Race #6 - Post: 3:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,200 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#2 VOORHEES (ML=7/2)


VOORHEES - I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a good effort within the last 30 days. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a return.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 EL BANDIDO (ML=5/2), #5 ON HIS TOES (ML=3/1), #4 ARMOR PIERCING (ML=9/2),

EL BANDIDO - Once you've got at least ten races at the venue and still have no victories, its tough to break through for a victory. Not probable that the speed fig he earned on Aug 7th will be good enough in this race. ON HIS TOES - This mount likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually win. Keep out of the top spot. This horse ran a mediocre speed figure last time out. He shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat today running that fig. ARMOR PIERCING - I'd like to see more conducive recent showings with oddsmaker's morning line of 9/2.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 VOORHEES to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 CATCHEM IF YOU CAN 7/2
# 5 ONLY A DREAM 10/1
# 3 CADILLAC COWBOY 5/2

CATCHEM IF YOU CAN looks to be a solid contender. I like the jockey on this gelding - respectable chance to win the contest. Ran a very solid last race. He has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the best in this field. ONLY A DREAM - He should be given a shot given the quite good speed figures. Pompell has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 15 percent clip. CADILLAC COWBOY - Has to be given a shot versus this group of horses displaying very strong numbers lately and an average speed rating of 77 under similar conditions. Is a solid choice - given the 81 speed figure from his most recent race.