Wednesday 8/28/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Saratoga Scouting Report: August 28-September 2, 2024

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August 26, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Key Races

Wednesday | Michael Walsh Stakes (steeplechase); P.G. Johnson Stakes (2yo f turf route)

Thursday | With Anticipation Stakes (2yo turf route)

Friday | Saranac Stakes (3yo turf route)

Saturday | G1 Spinaway (2yo f), G2 Flower Bowl (f/m turf route), G3 Prioress (3yo f sprint)

Sunday | G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup (3&up dirt route), Bernard Baruch (3&up turf route)

Monday | G1 Hopeful (2yo dirt sprint), Harvey Pack (turf sprint)

Horsepower

Wednesday | ’23 G1 Kentucky Derby alum Sun Thunder (R2 allowance)

Friday | G1 Irish 2000 Guineas 4th Take Me to Church (R6 G3 Saranac Stakes)

Saturday | G2 Vosburgh runner-up Accretive (R5 allowance); ’23 G1 Spinaway winner Brightwork (R10 G3 Prioress Stakes); G3 Adirondack winner The Queens MG (R11 G1 Spinaway Stakes); ’23 G1 Turf Classic winner War Like Goddess, ’23 G2 Flower Bowl winner Parnac, G2 Glens Falls winner McKulick (R11 G2 Flower Bowl Invitational)

Sunday | G1 Whitney winner Arthur’s Ride, ’23 G1 Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice, ’23 G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Bright Future (probable G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, field draws Wednesday)

Monday | Dominant debut winner Ferocious (probable G1 Hopeful Stakes, field draws Thursday); G2 Shakertown winner Arzak (probable Harvey Pack Stakes, field draws Thursday)

Extra Incentives

Saturday | $10K-added Fun in the Sun Handicapping Tournament | last 5 races Saratoga, first 5 races Del Mar | Saturday final qualifier for Monday’s Final Table

Tracking the Trends

-- Last week was the chalkiest of the meet with 46% winning favorites and two-thirds of them landing in the exacta. This followed a 21%-winning favorites run the prior week.

-- Trainer Chad Brown led the way last week with 7 wins (29%, slight, flat-bet profit ROI).

-- Trainer Mark Casse’s 8: 4-0-0 week produced a $2.50 profit for every $1 bet. He’s now 9-for-25 (36%) with 2-year-olds this Saratoga summer.

-- Jockey Jose Ortiz had perhaps his best week of the meet with a colony-best 7 wins (tied with Flavien Prat). Ortiz won 26% and showed a $1.45 ROI for every $1 bet.

-- Horses who made their last start in Kentucky have won a strong 18% overall at the meet going into closing week, and they’ve been exactly even in terms of ROI. Top barns on this move have been Mike Maker (6 wins, 30%), Al Stall Jr. (4 wins, 67%) and Mark Casse (4 wins, 50%).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#7 Arak	There isn't much pace lined up in here, and he has a couple races on his page that suggest he might be able to try to take advantage of that void from this high draw. In the mix throughout to land it?
#3 Thalberg	He looks like another potential option near the top early on as he comes around two turns off the claim, but I'm not sure I'd be too thrilled to be here at anything like the 9/5 morning-line price.
#6 Richard Hooty	He's a pretty honest finisher -- always dangerous over this footing -- but I'm worried that he will wind up with too much to do behind a mild pace. Won't surprise, but think there are more appealing choices today.
Race Summary	Arak and Thalberg seem capable of flashing enough pace to get involved out of the gate in a race that lacks committed pace, but the former should be a better price on the board and is a bit more established routing right now.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#3 Highs N Lows	Gave him a look last out and think he's worth another spin today after making a move and going flat late in that last one. Barn does well with these types, and he might be slowly coming around.
#1 Roaring Justice	Worry he'll be a bit overbet, but this might not be the deepest special weight we're going to see this season, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him show up with something competitive first out. Take a look.
#9 Drunkle	He has shown a bit of ability to get past horses late, so he would benefit if a few of the forward players or firsters locked horns early on while he watched it unfold from out here. Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here.
Race Summary	Highs N Lows has been slowly heading in the right direction, and I wonder if this is the right spot for him to get over the top with one more small step forward. Spying pace might work well here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#1 Solair	Think her even-running style might play well enough today, and she may be able to just save some ground and hope a few of the quick players let her sneak through into the lane.
#7 Heaven Rules	She's probably the best of the pace here (though I think #2 Every Little Bit has a little appeal, too), and she should appreciate getting back over the local footing after a dull run at Saratoga with better last out.
#3 Normanjito	The class and company lines suggest she might be an OK fit here, and maybe the local footing will help her punch home just a bit better today. Likely underlay.
Race Summary	Solair should be overlooked with this group, but I'm hoping she'll end up getting towed into the pace by a few of the quicker players early on. Along late?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#6 BOLD BOSS (6-1)	Like the gate move earlier this month, like the price in her first start.
#1 BROOKMESA (5-2)	Best numbers, second In last two main-track sprints, adds blinkers.
#2 NIGHT QUEST (5-1)	Daughter of champion Nyquist hails from barn that excels with firsters.
Race Summary	BOLD BOSS stepped it up a notch for a 4F bullet workout from the gate in :47-4/5 on August 6. His sire, Liam’s Map, has produced more than 200 winners the last two years and his dam, Echo Warrior, was a MSW runner-up in her debut. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-6 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#7 ERA (20-1)	Worked forwardly for debut, troubled start in latest, might want more ground.
#4 NAY SLAYER (9-2)	Route experience should come in handy against mostly stretch-out sprinters.
#6 LADY RAVEN (5-1)	Hit board twice at this level before post 10 assignment in latest.
Race Summary	Taking a longshot stab on ERA, who was bumped outward at the start of a 5F turf sprint at Penn National, trailed to mid-turn and raced evenly in the stretch behind an impressive shipper. She gets second-time Lasix and should get ample pace flow to run at. Bet to win and place and play a 4-6-7 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#3 GEAUX YOSHKA (9-5)	Duplicated strong rally to win on class rise off claim, returns on similar rest.
#5 INTER MIAMI (5-2)	Can parlay his speed into $200,000 in 6F earnings with a victory.
#1 REBEL EMPIRE (7-2)	Got the jump on ‘Geaux’ and hung around for third, claimed by Ness.
Race Summary	GEAUX YOSHKA, far back and unhurried to the turn, unleashed a furious rail rally and caught the weary leaders to win off the claim. He will have to stay in closer contact to win his third consecutive race with a month between starts, but believe he can do so at a distance which he’s 4-for-6. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $29,920 • Post: 2:10P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA CLAIMING RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY(CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SOUND DOCTRINE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. REWIRE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FUNTASTIC VOW: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LEND IT TEWMEY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	SOUND DOCTRINE	9/5	3/1
4	REWIRE	5/1	6/1
3	FUNTASTIC VOW	6/1	8/1
5	LEND IT TEWMEY	5/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SOUND DOCTRINE	2	9/5	Front-runner	90	93	104.8	74.0	66.5
3	FUNTASTIC VOW	3	6/1	Front-runner	73	74	79.4	65.4	56.4
8	TANMANCAN	8	12/1	Front-runner	71	72	68.3	68.3	60.3
5	LEND IT TEWMEY	5	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	81	80.2	74.2	68.2
4	REWIRE	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	83	64.2	72.3	64.3
7	DEWY'S BEAST	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	66	75.0	63.2	48.7
6	MASTER OF THE NITE	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	71	55.0	57.8	45.3
1	MAGIC GRANT	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	79	37.3	65.6	59.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race 4	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / $1 Double / .50 Pick 3 .50 LATE Pick 5 (15% takeout)
Maiden Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $18,500 • Post: 2:00P
(RAIL AT 16 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT NOT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * THENDARA'S LOST: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ha s the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LUCKY IN LOVE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LADY RAVEN: Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. COACH CALEY (IRE): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	THENDARA'S LOST	20/1	4/1
12	LUCKY IN LOVE	12/1	6/1
6	LADY RAVEN	5/1	8/1
8	COACH CALEY (IRE)	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
14	STELLA D'AMORE	14	10/1	Front-runner	0	0	74.9	43.6	31.6
3	BOUNTY KILLAH	3	10/1	Front-runner	60	36	71.6	53.6	39.1
4	NAY SLAYER	4	9/2	Front-runner	62	56	71.4	56.2	48.2
2	THENDARA'S LOST	2	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	71	68.4	56.6	45.1
9	VAI GATTINA	9	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	60	57	49.4	56.2	47.2
13	TIZ D AMAZIN LADY	13	10/1	Trailer	0	0	56.9	42.7	29.7
12	LUCKY IN LOVE	12	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	60	43	59.0	62.6	50.1
8	COACH CALEY (IRE)	8	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	57.5	63.6	56.6
6	LADY RAVEN	6	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	68	60	51.3	51.6	43.6
10	BELLA MAMA	10	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	20	44.6	43.6	27.1
1	SMOKIN SISTER	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	39.8	39.8	18.8
5	SPIN THE MOON	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	27.9	27.9	3.4
7	ERA	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	22.8	22.8	1.8
11	GOLDEN BOSS LADY	11	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	10.2	10.2	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #3 - Post: 6:43pm - Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

#3 SWIFT TAP (ML=4/1)
#8 MR MATUSCHEK (ML=8/1)
#2 EFF THIRTY FIVE (ML=2/1)
#7 BEYOND THE PALE (ML=7/2)


SWIFT TAP - In this race here, this horse has clearly shown signs that he likes the grass. His speed figs are the highest in the field for this dist-surf. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a good outing in the last race within the last month. The latest speed fig of 96 is the highest last race speed rating in the bunch. MR MATUSCHEK - This gelding has been training well, and the recent bullet work says he's primed for a top effort today. Perez was aboard this gelding last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. This thoroughbred has a lot of class. A good sign in a grass race like we have today. EFF THIRTY FIVE - Toledo and Russell have had wonderful success together over the last year. This thoroughbred coming off a sharp contest in the last month or so is a win candidate in my book. This thoroughbred earns a lot of money per start. I believe he can add to the lifetime earnings in today's race. BEYOND THE PALE - Hernandez is up for another affair today after riding aboard this animal for the first time on July 19th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Hernandez and Hodsdon partnered with one another are a handicapper's friend.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 MONEY IN MOTION (ML=9/2), #6 AMPERSAND (ML=5/1),

MONEY IN MOTION - Registered a common speed figure last out in a $30,000 Claiming race on July 13th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig. AMPERSAND - Garnered a quite unimpressive speed figure in the last race in a $16,000 Claiming race on Aug 1st. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 SWIFT TAP to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - SO - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $32640 Class Rating: 95

IND - R6 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 IF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 FIREWATER JAKE 5/1
# 6 KENTUCKY GHOST 7/2
# 9 JURA 6/1

I think FIREWATER JAKE is a formidable choice. Morales has one of the best jock ROI's on the grounds, returning to wagerers +44 percent. With a nice class figure average of 99, has one of the best class advantages in this group of animals. Solid rider with handler figures make this horse a very strong pick. KENTUCKY GHOST - He has been moving admirably recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Have to wager on this gelding with the sound earnings per start in turf route races. JURA - Will probably compete admirably in the early speed battle which bodes well with this field. Have to think this one will make a good impression following the quick major improvement.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:50pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,800 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#2 PARETO'S PRINCIPLE (ML=9/5)


PARETO'S PRINCIPLE - Getting a break of 8 lbs from last race at Mountaineer Park. He should make the most of this advantage. Handicapping information show this thoroughbred with three improving speed ratings. Bravo should be on a horse ready to go in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 UNCLE ISMAEL (ML=5/2), #3 THAT MAGIC MOMENT (ML=7/2), #5 OLD FORTY FIVE (ML=4/1),

UNCLE ISMAEL - Don't believe this entrant has what it takes to win this time around. THAT MAGIC MOMENT - Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any type of closing response on July 18th. OLD FORTY FIVE - Hard to keep chasing this kind of 'hanger' horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #2 PARETO'S PRINCIPLE to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $33900 Class Rating: 54

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO FOALS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 BUMPKIN 2/1
# 5 VECCHI 4/1
# 6 COLORFUL LAD 15/1

I've got to go with BUMPKIN. Looks strong against this group and will most likely be one of the front-runners. Highly ranked earnings per start at the distance/surface in this group. Must be given a chance given the class of races run lately. VECCHI - Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. With one of the best jockeys in terms of dividends at the window, don't count this gelding out. COLORFUL LAD - He has quite good class ratings, averaging 65, and has to be carefully examined in this contest. The big drop in competition can only help out this one this time around.