Thursday 8/29/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Scott Shapiro: Kentucky Downs' $10 Money-Back Plays | Thursday

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August 28, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Labor Day is approaching and that means so is the 2024 Kentucky Downs meeting. The seven-day meet kicks off on Thursday and so does a new promotion at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET. Our marketing team knows how much horseplayers love Money Back Special offers, and with that in mind, they have launched one for every day of the meet. Three select races per card will be eligible for up to a $10 money-back special (if win bet finishes second or third), starting on Thursday with Races 4,7,10 (Tapit Stakes).

For those that have never dabbled or gotten involved with Kentucky Downs racing, be ready, it is quite unique. Watching the races can be a task at times, but field sizes are massive, which most handicappers adore. Here are the runners I will be using my Money Back Special offers for on Thursday afternoon, assuming their price is at or above their morning line offering.


Race 4:

The pace should be honest in this 1 5/16 mile event for fillies and mares given the presence of #1 Stylish Sue and #4 Lucky Speech. This bodes well for #3 Sabalenka. The Good Samaritan filly makes her second start off the layoff for trainer Whit Beckman after an even fourth-place run against a stronger group at Saratoga three weeks ago. The 4YO has proven form over this unique configuration and attracts the services of Tyler Gaffalione. Expect a big late run under a rider who is coming hot from upstate New York.

Play: #3 Sabalenka (9-2 ML)


Race 7:

The seventh offers up an extremely unique condition for 2YO fillies and a massive purse taboot. $250k up for grabs for juvenile fillies which have sold or were RNA at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale. Interesting to say the least, but I am here to hopefully help guide you in the right direction, not analyze conditions. That said, it is always very important to read the conditions of a race before diving in. If that is not a habit, I highly advise making it one.

Demanding value in this 6.5-furlong turf sprint is a must. Sure, #5 Lady Orient and #8 Rich City Girl make sense as the two morning line choices for high percentage barns, but this is a different ball game than what they have encountered thus far. I will take a swing with second-time starter #1 Princess Altitude. The extremely well-bred daughter of Frankel is out of a Johar mare that earned over $1M and won 10 of 25 starts over the turf in her career. No doubt this gal is bred to want a ton more ground than she gets today, but she should take a big step forward here as one as Joel Rosario jumps aboard.

Play: #1 Princess Altitude (10-1 ML)


Race 10: Tapit Stakes

The first stakes race of the meeting marks the return of #5 Funtastic Again. The Wesley Ward trainee broke my heart when we saw him lose a tough one to the talented Johannes in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) in late May at Santa Anita Park. The Three Chimneys Farm colt has not raced since and clearly has some sort of soundness issues since he has only competed six times since the start of 2023. However, when he runs he is very good. The problem is he is 9-5 on the morning line and has no form over this course. The son of Funtastic is definitely the likeliest winner, but with the Money Back Special, I can take a swing with a much-better priced runner and get my money back if they finish second or third to the chalk.

#8 Harlan Estate comes in off a strong runner-up effort to Major Dude in an allowance-event at Saratoga in July. The son of Kantharos won this race last year at 37-1 and should be rolling late under Joel Rosario. If Funtastic Again is to lose, it is probably because he gets pressured on the front-end setting things up for a runner from off the pace. The son of Accelerate definitely fits that profile. Hopefully, it’s a big day for trainer Whit Beckman and the newly crowned Hall of Fame rider.

Play: #8 Harlan Estate (10-1 ML)

Keep an eye out for my thoughts on the Saturday and Sunday Money Back races coming later in the week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Del Mar - Race #1

#10 Grainne O'Malley	She has some outside pace and might be able to stick around better once she figures out how to really handle a turn. Worth another look on the lawn.
#6 Chasing Kat	She's the best of those with experience and should be in a spot to prompt the splits throughout while trying turf for the first time. Potential underlay.
#4 Only Reputation	She's one of a few interesting fresh faces, so get a look at her on the track and tote ahead of this. Wouldn't be shocked if she could land a piece at a midrange price right out of the box.
Race Summary	Grainne O'Malley doesn't look too bad in here if you're willing to forgive her last one. I think the price will be right to give her another shot, as she has some potentially dangerous pace if she can hold it together on the turn today.

Del Mar - Race #6

#5 Bolt's Broad	Think she has a little midrange price appeal with some races on her page that fit well enough against this group, and I think you can draw a line through her last. Sneaky chance today despite having already had a lot of chances?
#6 Accuracy	She checks all the right boxes today as she stretches out with a route pedigree after a useful finishing line sprinting in the debut here earlier this month. Wouldn't surprise.
#2 Cavalieri	Barn wins a good number of races like this here, but they aren't overwhelming by any stretch, and this guy will likely be the toast of the tote board. Could win for fun -- check her out.
Race Summary	Bolt's Broad has some fairly honest form, and I think the price will be inflated off a dull run last time out. The barn hasn't started many main-track runners like this here in the last couple years, but one of the two they sent out scored at $103. I'll take a little swing.

Del Mar - Race #7

#3 Cabo Spirit	He goes second off the break while getting a little bit of class relief -- this is a very deep allowance spot that feels like a small stakes race, but he also hasn't been officially outside of stakes company in a really long time.
#6 Almendares	Big fan of this guy and expect a bit better from him this afternoon after a fairly flat run by his standards. Couple of forward players might help set things up for a run from off the splits today. I wouldn't be against an aggressive two-deep stand here.
#8 Watsonville	Wonder if he might offer a mildly playable number on the board after the dull run last out, and it's easy to see him getting a perfect spy-and-finish trip with this group.
Race Summary	Fun race. Cabo Spirit might be overlooked with form that isn't flashy, but I think there are a few very competitive races on his page if he's ready to get back to one of them while going second off the layoff.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#6 RUSSIAN HAMMER (9-2)	Right set-up to sustain middle move, right price to go with it.
#5 GRAND BEY (8-5)	Florida invader is winless since ‘23, but numbers are solid and barn is on 9-38 run.
#8 WEMBY (3-1)	Just missed at this level for new connections, gets in light-weighted.
Race Summary	RUSSIAN HAMMER always makes a middle move and it could be the right move to upgrade a recent series of in-the-money finishes. He can stalk and pounce on several rivals who could target the front end. Bet to win and place and play a 5-6 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#1 BOOTSY’S MERLOT (4-1)	Drops off near miss, can handle route, returns on short rest for new barn.
#2 FABULOUS CANDY (3-1)	Burned serious money in last four starts, runs for cheapest tag yet.
#4 ALWAYS CONCERNED (2-1)	‘Merlot’ stablemate has speed and drops with 13/2-4-2 mark this year.
Race Summary	BOOTSY’S MERLOT has a win and a second at the $5,000 level in her last four route attempts. She was put back on Lasix for a 6F sprint last out and rallied to get beat a half-length in a blanket finish. Bet to win and place and play a 1,2/1,2,4/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#12 SAM STORMY (10-1)	Bid 4-wide to brief stretch lead at 7-1/2F, moves inside out in 12-horse field.
#7 RUM TUM TUGGER (6-1)	Looked like winner in mid-stretch last out but was denied by game rival.
#5 ASPIRING COMEDIAN (15-1)	Rallied into slow pace, just missed, enters new barn in good form.
Race Summary	SAM STORMY found the proper level, gained 4-wide on the second turn and got caught by the longshot winner at 7-1/2F. He must get early position from the outside post but he’s worth a win and place bet at double-digit morning-line odds. Also play a 5-7-12 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 55 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 3:12P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. INFINITY'S WARRIOR is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * INFINITY'S WARRIOR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fig ure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BIG CITY HEAT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 d ays. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	INFINITY'S WARRIOR	9/5	2/1
7	BIG CITY HEAT	8/5	3/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	INFINITY'S WARRIOR	3	9/5	Front-runner	62	64	68.4	56.2	51.2
7	BIG CITY HEAT	7	8/5	Front-runner	57	51	57.2	51.0	47.5
4	OUTSTANDINGJUSTICE	4	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	56	43	30.2	39.4	32.9
5	IT'S LAST CALL	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	40	55.2	30.2	23.2
6	PROPHET OBADIAH	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	44.2	27.4	18.4
1	EL TULIPAN	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	33.6	30.3	16.8
2	SAKRA'S PROMISE	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	28.5	31.8	21.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds
PURCHASE

Fair Grounds - Race 8	$1 WPS / $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Daily Double
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 3:02P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 29, 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ALCALA PERRY: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. EAGLE SPEED: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. JRS MAJESTIC POP POP: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MP THORNADO: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. C C GIRL: Jockey/Trainer combination return on i nvestment is at least +20.
9	ALCALA PERRY	3/1	6/1
3	EAGLE SPEED	20/1	7/1
1	JRS MAJESTIC POP POP	8/1	7/1
4	MP THORNADO	5/1	7/1
7	C C GIRL	12/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JRS MAJESTIC POP POP	1	8/1	Average	85	82	5.4	0.0	0.0
2	OVATION	2	9/2	Average	87	75	5.7	0.0	0.0
3	EAGLE SPEED	3	20/1	Average	86	86	4.7	0.0	0.0
4	MP THORNADO	4	5/1	Fast	83	77	2.8	0.0	0.0
5	THE RESERVE	5	12/1	Slow	85	77	7.0	0.0	0.0
6	MP SIXY SILHOUTTE	6	6/1	Average	85	74	4.3	0.0	0.0
7	C C GIRL	7	12/1	Average	87	79	4.1	0.0	0.0
8	HEMP N MY CORONA	8	4/1	Average	83	72	3.7	0.0	0.0
9	ALCALA PERRY	9	3/1	Average	83	88	4.2	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 29 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $9,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 PUTTHEGLASSDOWN 6/1
# 5 LIVING WATER 4/1
# 6 LOST IN NEWYORK 5/2

PUTTHEGLASSDOWN should be supported as the bet in here. Has to be given a shot against this group displaying very good numbers as of late and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 78 under similar conditions. Recent figs for the rider - 18 win percent - make this horse stand out in this field. Jockey's recent return on investment numbers make this horse a good wager. LIVING WATER - Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 84 - of his last race. This gelding with Rodriguez in the saddle makes him a solid choice. LOST IN NEWYORK - Has recorded reliable Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Has competed well in dirt sprint races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Del Mar - Race #1 - Post: 2:00pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#12 LADY MONCLAIRE (ML=10/1)
#3 LOVELY IDAHO (ML=4/1)
#10 GRAINNE O'MALLEY (ML=15/1)


LADY MONCLAIRE - In this race here, this horse has clearly shown signs that she likes the turf. Her speed figs are the highest in the field for this distance-surface. May be extremely hard to beat this noble animal on the grass today. In the last race scored a nice turf figure, the highest of any of these animals. Dropped in class in the last race, running against the same type today. I just may give this one a chance. Should improve off last race where she did run out of the money, but was within five lengths at the wire. The recent speed rating of 77 is the highest last race speed rating in the bunch. LOVELY IDAHO - Filly has shown some speed. This shorter distance should be better for her. Garnered a nice turf figure on June 2nd at Santa Anita. A repeat in today's race, and this one has a great shot to win. A repeat of that recent performance on Jun 2nd where she garnered a speed rating of 77 looks high enough to score in this affair. GRAINNE O'MALLEY - The jock and handler combination have a positive return on investment when they partner up.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CHASING KAT (ML=2/1), #1 NATURALLY BLONDE (ML=7/2), #8 BESSIE COLEMAN (ML=6/1),

CHASING KAT - I usually try to beat these types of morning-line choices off the extended layoff. Common speed fig in the last race at Santa Anita at 6 furlongs. Don't think this horse will improve too much in today's event. NATURALLY BLONDE - Not normally the kind of horse one plays off of any sort of long breather. Hard to bet this one after not being on the lead at 1 mile and now being placed in a race of 5 furlongs. BESSIE COLEMAN - This filly hasn't had any recent success in short distance contests. Not easy to bet on her in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #12 LADY MONCLAIRE to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,10,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,10,12] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,10,12] with [3,10,12] with [3,7,8,10,12] with [3,7,8,10,12] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Kentucky Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Turf. Purse: $210000 Class Rating: 100

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,500 THREE TIMES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OPTIONAL, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $100,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $60,000 TWICE ON THE TURF SINCE JUNE 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $100,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 BLING 7/2
# 12 TEQUILERA 6/1
# 10 RILEYS REDEMPTION 8/1

I've got to go with BLING. Has to be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone. Expect a speed boost today from this horse going on blinkers. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this filly. TEQUILERA - Is tough not to consider based on Speed Figures which have been respectable - 91 avg - of late. Matz has a strong 23 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. RILEYS REDEMPTION - This pick will feel the med change - on Lasix today. Has solid early speed and will almost certainly fare soundly versus this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Belterra Park - Race #7 - Post: 2:15pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,100 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#1 PEEKABOOWILLIE (ML=7/2)


PEEKABOOWILLIE - Have to make this mare a contender; she comes off a good effort on August 3rd. You always have to be on the watch for bankroll building rider/trainer tandems; we have one right here. Helmbrecht is giving this one Lasix for the first time. I like it.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 GREEN LADY (ML=2/1), #2 SISSY'S MAY (ML=4/1), #6 EMERALD EYES (ML=9/2),

GREEN LADY - I don't normally play a morning-line choice that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. SISSY'S MAY - Much too far back on August 14th for me to back at the probable odds in today's sprint affair. Tough to take this racer at the price after the result (third) in the last affair. EMERALD EYES - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint contests in order to bet on her.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 PEEKABOOWILLIE to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip