Monday 9/2/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-02-2024, 07:30 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 2, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race card, and the 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool starts in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 rolls in Race 8, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

3-American Dealer N (9/5)-Dropped and popped going gate to wire versus cheaper. The time before tried the same against similar and faded down the lane to come 2nd. Steps up but so does everyone except #4. Could land on top without much gas being burned and is a double up candidate.
5-Rockin Jukebox (4-1)-Steps up after making every call a winning one in strong fashion leaving from the rail. Draws well enough so Joe B should be out and rolling hard off the gate. This veteran can still bring it, has been good and could stay that way tonight.

Race 9 (9:40 Pm EST)

1-Verdun (9/2)-Had a big July winning 3 in a row here and August wasn’t as good when stepping up to face the Open pacers. But did win on 8-5 going down the road from the rail and could wake up and do the same here.
2-Western Era (6-1)-Left from post 2 last time and just missed in the 2nd start since arriving from Kentucky. Comes off a sharp effort and looks like a 2-hole candidate. Will use instead of the 2-1 program chalk (7), and could catch the leader down the lane at a square price.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

2-Euphoria N (5/2)-Bumps up a level after wiring the last crew and there are a lot of question marks in this race. Jason Bartlett sticks and will use as a double up possibility. Should land on the point without much trouble from post 2.
4-Reigning Deo (2-1)-Form has been dull and hasn't connected for a win in a long time. But takes a large drop from facing $60k claimers and it would be no shock to see the Alexander trainee in the winner's circle.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

1-Purple Poet (8-1)-Hasn't dropped to the basement looking for a win but is close. This will be the 2nd start back after a sick scratch and if dialed on high should be heard from at the wire.
4-The Ideal Dancer A (9/2)-Paced a big 55.1 back half and rallied to finish a close 3rd. Comes back versus the same kind and should offer a fair price.
5-Pointomygranson (2-1)-Has been dull and there are reasons to dismiss. But there have been quite a few driver changes on this Alexander trainee and now gets a new set of hands in Matt Kakaley. Looking for a wake-up call and thinking the morning line price is too low.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

3,5/1,2/2,4/1,4,5
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-02-2024, 07:31 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #9

#1 Trotsky	His form looks a worse than it really is once you draw a line through all of his turf duds, so the move back to the main track today gives him plenty of upside finishing up the track in a race I liked a little bit on the grass last out.
#8 Smokem If U Gottem	He's the one to beat with a good draw to force the issue from the outside, but he's likely to get bet again and has made a habit of giving away ground late in his races. Could roll, but I don't have the right kind of enthusiasm at the likely price.
#2 I'm Ripped	No clue what to make of the Wyoming Downs debut, but he's moving into a solid local barn and might be enough for a piece here. Not a ton of strong thoughts for me in this one beyond the top two.
Race Summary	Trotsky should be able to bounce back today on the main track, and I'm hoping the presence of Smokem If U Gottem and some dull turf form on his page will keep the price playable.

Del Mar - Race #10

#3 I'm a Joker	She finally punched through for the graduation run when dropping in for a tag, but she wasn't far out of the picture with a long string of special weight groups and might be able to outrun her price today. Better than she looks at first glance?
#12 Miss Meagher	Think there are a bunch of different ways you can look in this one, and she's one of them while getting Lasix for the North American debut. Tough draw, but I think she'll show up. For whatever it's worth, Fresu is here instead of staying on the next one...
#5 Esprit Enchante	She's an honest finisher who has been competitive at this level in recent starts and just missed last out, and I think something like her last probably makes her a handful again -- mild worry about the price.
Race Summary	Wouldn't argue too hard about most of them in here -- I'm a Joker gets a price swing for me, but there are several other interesting ways to go.

Del Mar - Race #11

#4 Getemdusty	He has had some chances and has not seriously threatened a winner in his recent starts, but I like that his one-paced style might leave him in a decent spot turning for home in a race where I don't trust most of them late. Gets home on baseline consistency?
#6 Bowtie Boys	He has some ability to sit just off the splits, so he should be in a decent spying spot early on behind the speedier players early on with a couple races on his page that might make him tough if he can get back to them.
#1 Fast Chaz	He's a legit win candidate with some inside pace while dropping into a much easier spot than he has seen before, but I still have some questions -- he is no sure thing on the main track, and I think there is some other pace drawn in here that might make the trip difficult. Could shake these off.
Race Summary	Getemdusty should offer a playable enough price and I think he's going to get a decent run that might allow him to grind into the mix in the lane and hold off any late threats.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-02-2024, 07:32 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#5 A.G.’S GEM (4-1)	#5 A.G.’S GEM (4-1) – Awakened on barn switch, can he carry speed the distance is the question.
#4 SWORNTOSILENCE (3-1)	No factor on turf in debut for barn on 8-for-31 run with maiden claimers.
#3 A STAR ON THE RISE (2-1)	Pair of third for $20k on main track, gets needed class relief.
Race Summary	A.G.’S GEM ‘sprinted away’ to press the 14-1 winner and held second in a 10-horse field. He showed dramatic improvement for his new barn and could take some catching with a duplicate performance in his first try at this distance. Bet to win and place and play a 5/ALL/6 Pick 3.

Louisiana Downs - Race #3

#6 DEROUTANTE (5-2)	Won at this distance on this turf course, knocking on door to win another.
#1 CECE WAVE (6-1)	Switches surfaces after compiling 9/1-4-2 dirt sprint record this year.
#2 PINCHING PENNIES (4-1)	Three seconds and a third in last four one-mile runs on the lawn.
Race Summary	DEROUTANTE rallied for second behind a front-running favorite and deep-closing longshot in her last two starts on the grass. She’s in top form and gets ample pace flow to rally again and upgrade to a victory. Bet to win and place and play 6-1 and 6-2 exactas.

Louisiana Downs - Race #4

#1 PATIOS’S PORCH (6-1)	Has speed and can use it well from the rail for third start of cycle.
#4 JAMAICAN ME (7-2)	Wide throughout in latest, no threat to the 1-2-3 favorites.
#6 G’S STORM (5-2)	Steady check-getter but not worth favoritism with 2-for-40 record.
Race Summary	PATIO’S PORCH, out-sprinted by the winner for his customary lead role, should be back on the engine from the rail in the same spot. The price is good enough in his third start off a layoff for a win and place bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-02-2024, 07:33 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $26,400 • Post: 3:50P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. WINE AND WAVES is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WINE AND WAVES: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. NO PAY NO HAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MISS TARISANSOL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a la yoff. REVENUE TRAIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	WINE AND WAVES	5/2	5/1
2	NO PAY NO HAY	2/1	6/1
3	MISS TARISANSOL	6/1	7/1
5	REVENUE TRAIN	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	WINE AND WAVES	6	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	56.9	50.2	46.7
2	NO PAY NO HAY	2	2/1	Stalker	64	59	57.0	54.2	49.2
5	REVENUE TRAIN	5	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	55	54	37.0	53.8	47.8
3	MISS TARISANSOL	3	6/1	Trailer	67	57	55.0	58.8	50.8
4	CATCHMENOW	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	53	39	53.2	29.8	17.8
1	SPITE LITE	1	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	61	46	37.5	38.9	31.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-02-2024, 07:33 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 2	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 2-3) * Pick 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 2-3-4)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $32,600 • Post: 1:29P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * MIA NIPOTINA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PLAYING WITH DOL LS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. SHINY LURE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the dist ance/surface. OUTTA THE CLOUD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	MIA NIPOTINA	5/2	7/2
4	PLAYING WITH DOLLS	5/1	5/1
3	SHINY LURE	7/5	6/1
1	OUTTA THE CLOUD	4/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	PLAYING WITH DOLLS	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	61	57	49.7	46.1	40.1
5	MIA NIPOTINA	5	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	67	61	40.2	52.8	47.3
3	SHINY LURE	3	7/5	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	31.3	67.3	64.8
1	OUTTA THE CLOUD	1	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	52	48	38.6	49.4	42.9
2	WIDOW	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	14.4	25.9	16.4

Unknown Running Style: VISION OF ANNA (10/1) [Jockey: Davila Jr Michael A - Trainer: Goodwin Gabriel].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-02-2024, 07:33 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ferndale

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Stakes - 220y on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 89

QUARTER HORSE 220Y, CREAM CITY DASH S. - FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD . NO NOMINATION FEE, $100 TO START WITH $20,000 GUARANTEED, OF WHICH 55% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 12% TO THIRD, 7% TO FOURTH, 2% TO FIFTH AND TO SIXTH, AND 1% TO SEVENTH AND EIGHTH. WEIGHT: THREE-YEAR-OLDS 123 LBS; OLDER, 126 LBS. WINNERS OF A STAKE RACE IN 2024 TO CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 2LBS. PREFERENCE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 IMA SIXY MAN 2/1
# 1 JESS DREAM 4/1
# 4 CDS ITS ONLY MONEY 7/2

My choice for this race is IMA SIXY MAN. He should definitely be given a chance given the formidable speed figures. Make a note that this one runs now going off Lasix today. Will probably come out sharp - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the lead recently. JESS DREAM - Is difficult not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been very strong - 79 avg - of late. Should go to the front end and should never look back. CDS ITS ONLY MONEY - Appears to be the type to be helped now going off Lasix here. Ran a strong last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-02-2024, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Saratoga - Race #2 - Post: 1:07pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $90,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#11 DISCO STAR (ML=9/5)

DISCO STAR - This filly finished well ahead of the show horse on August 14th. Those horses tend to run well next time out. Ortiz and Casse partnered up are a railbird's friend. This filly's last speed figure notched on Aug 14th is in the top spot in last race speed figures. This filly is in top physical condition right now. Ended up second last out and comes back quickly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MARVELOUS MADISON (ML=8/5), #6 FOREVER TO GO (ML=4/1), #12 TELLER TO WIN (ML=6/1),

MARVELOUS MADISON - Would have to get quite a bit more than the oddsmaker's morning line of 8/5 to play this horse. FOREVER TO GO - Trying to beat this entrant in today's event at the reward of 4/1. TELLER TO WIN - Just don't believe she is worth it at the expected odds.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - DISCO STAR - Put a prime wager on this filly. Number one in earnings per start and has a lot more to offer as well.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #11 DISCO STAR to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	11 with [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-02-2024, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 66

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 2, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 PATIO'S PORCH 6/1
# 6 G'S STORM 5/2
# 5 SILKY'S DANCE 10/1

PATIO'S PORCH is my choice. Larrosa has a reliable 18 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Should compete strongly in the early pace battle which bodes well with this field. This group is much softer than the last one he was up against. G'S STORM - With a very good 58 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this affair. Is tough not to examine given the company run in lately. SILKY'S DANCE - Could best this group based on the speed fig - 58 - of his last contest. A solid 75 avg Equibase class figure may give this horse a distinct class edge against this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-02-2024, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race #2 - Post: 2:00pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#1 TROPICAL RAIN DAY (ML=8/1)
#4 NEWPORT DREAMZ (ML=12/1)
#6 RIZZLEBERRY ROSE (ML=4/1)

TROPICAL RAIN DAY - I like the fact that this filly's last speed rating, 66, is tops in this group. NEWPORT DREAMZ - I like this first time starter mainly because her blow outs for this have been here at Del Mar. This trainer has a highly positive ROI with first time starters. RIZZLEBERRY ROSE - The August 11th affair at Del Mar was at a class level of (85). Dropping down in the class scale considerably, so she should be in a good position. Pereira comes to ride after getting to know the filly in the last race. Knapp will try adding the 'shades' today in hopes of an improved performance. While the finish was disappointing, this horse made a good stretch move last time around the track at Del Mar. Will do better in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 AMERICA'S MARK (ML=5/2), #2 PAVEL IS APPEALING (ML=7/2), #7 OM N JOY (ML=9/2),

AMERICA'S MARK - Morning line of 5/2 make this horse a pass by my approach. PAVEL IS APPEALING - Doesn't appear to be in a satisfactory spot in today's event. OM N JOY - No early speed in this field to help set-up her late rally.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 TROPICAL RAIN DAY on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**ConleyPicks** · 09-02-2024, 10:26 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Scioto Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 15 - Post: 10:52 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$7000 - STARTERS ALLOWANCE FOR HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED IN A CLAIMING RACE OF $7,500 OR LESS AT SCD ONCE IN THEIR LAST 2 STARTS OPTIONAL CLAIMING $7,500

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 OUR MAJORDAN A 6/1
# 4 LENWOODS REAL DEAL 1/1
# 7 SALTY ROBYN N 10/1

OUR MAJORDAN A looks nice to best this group of horses. This gelding getting the score wouldn't be impossible, a chance. Pace figures fit the bias well here at Scioto Downs, look for this one to get the win. This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win rate. LENWOODS REAL DEAL - The 4 position sports a well above average win pct at Scioto Downs. Feel the need for speed, this solid standardbred has been turning in some stellar TrackMaster SRs averaging around 79. SALTY ROBYN N - A formidable play in here as he has one of the highest winning figures in the group as well as excellent credentials all around.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-02-2024, 10:27 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine Mohawk Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Post: 9:32 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$12000 - POP UP SERIES: NW $18,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 PRINCE OF SUSSEX 8/1
# 5 BLUE DEVIL 3/1
# 7 SWAN DIEGO 9/2

If you want a really strong play here, feast your eyes on PRINCE OF SUSSEX check out that fine price on the line. With very good win figures, Macdonald should have this gelding in excellent position to win the race. A good play in here as he has one of the highest winning clips in the field of horses as well as solid credentials all around. BLUE DEVIL - A respectable win percent has been achieved by interesting entrants coming from the 5 post. Could most likely dominate this grouping given the 71 speed fig earned in his most recent race. SWAN DIEGO - With a 79 avg class number, this solid standardbred has one of the finest class edges in the group.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-02-2024, 10:28 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Tioga Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
3	3	PRACTICAL CAT	5/2	Boyd, Braxten - 24	495.44
4	4	CONSUS VICTORY	3/1	Merton, Michael - 19	478.63
5	5	DOWN THE PIKE MIKE	5/1	Byron, Aaron - 12	477.49
1	1	HUNTING AS	9/1	Miller, Tyler - 16	476.42
7	7	SEVENSHOTSOBOURBON	9/2	Merton, Thomas - 4	457.40
8	8	JACK FIRE	12/1	Miller, Marcus - 15	453.56
6	6	MEADOWBRANCH RICKY	30/1	Taggart, Jim Jr - 11	452.05
2	2	TANTALIZE BLUECHIP	30/1	Simons, Mike - 19	404.07
9	9	FLYHAWK EL FUERTE	30/1	Cummings, John Jr - 11	389.78

**ConleyPicks** · 09-02-2024, 10:28 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Yonkers Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 4
4	4	SADDLE UP	9/5	Bartlett, Jason - 24	534.54
5	5	OZONE BLUE CHIP	3/1	Brennan, George - 17	532.31
1	1	UCANTTOUCHTHIS	7/2	Lachance, Pat - 13	510.49
2	2	FINAL CHEESERECIPE	4/1	Marohn, Jim Jr - 10	498.89
6	6	SPORTS FAN	10/1	Buter, Tyler - 12	497.71
3	3	MY ULTIMATE STAR A	8/1	Kakaley, Matt - 17	494.69

**ConleyPicks** · 09-02-2024, 10:30 AM

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Minnesota w/Richardson -110 over Tampa Bay