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Play Texas (+110) over St. Louis (Top MLB Play)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST
CJ Wilson has won 9 of the last 10 games when pitching on a Wednesday and he has also won 4 of the last 5 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents. CJ Wilson has won 28 of the last 43 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has an ERA of 2.55 in road games this season.
WORLD SERIES
ST. LOUIS +130 over Texas Pinnacle
Close series to call but what can’t be ignored is the way the Cardinals have willed their way to this championship series. The Cardinals are doing everything right and Tony LaRussa seems to be pushing all the right buttons at precisely the right time. As a player once said, “The best teams get to the playoffs and the hottest team wins it”. The Cardinals bats are on fire, the bullpen has been near flawless and the Cardinals tied for the best road record in the majors during the regular season. In terms of producing runs, or playing small ball, a factor that could definitely have an impact on the outcome, one has to give a big edge to the Cardinals. Yadier Molina is a guy you simply can’t run on and if Ron Washington presses the panic button, like he did in last year’s series, the Rangers could run into trouble and run themselves out of innings. In terms of the starting pitching, we give the edge to the Cardinals there too. C.J. Wilson, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis all had decent years but they also pitched a lot of “hard innings” at that land mine in Texas and one could even argue that they all had career years. C.J. Wilson, who will pitch the opener, has been whacked in two of three starts in the postseason. The other three are simply average pitchers that had great years. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan is the real genius behind LaRussa. He is to pitching what the Beatles were to music. The Cards top three pitchers of Chris Carpenter, Jamie Garcia and Edwin Jackson all have great stuff and all have strong ground ball bias profiles. The Tigers didn’t have the pitching and the Rays didn’t have the bats to beat these Rangers but the Cardinals have both. In a seven game series and taking back a tag, the Cardinals offer up all the value here. Don’t be surprised if this is a short series. Play: St. Louis +130 to win series (Risking 2 units).
Texas Ranges @ St Louis Cardinals - CARDINALS TO WIN (-118)
(Note: I'm risking 2.38 units to win 2 units)
Tonight we will see the ace of each club with Chris Carpenter going for St Louis and lefty CJ Wilson on the mound for Texas. Chris Carpenter is 7-2 in career postseason starts, with a 3.11 ERA. In his only other World Series start Carpenter pitched 8 shutout innings. This postseason Carpenter has started three games, going 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.18 ERA and .230 opponents batting average. CJ Wilson is 1-4 in his career postseason starts with a high 5.40 ERA. Wilson has yet to win in three starts this postseason, going 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and .318 opponents batting average. Note that the Rangers are just 2-9 in their last 11 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Rangers are also just 6-14 in Wilson's last 20 road starts vs a team with a winning record, and 2-6 in his last 8 starts as a road underdog. On the other hand the Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 12-4 in their last 16 home games. St Louis is also 11-1 in Carpenters last 12 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 58-24 in his last 82 home starts. Both teams have big bats in their lineup, but the right-handed hitters in the Cardinals line up should be able to get to southpaw CJ Wilson. Carpenter has been the far better pitcher in the postseason, and the Cardinals get a boost playing at home. We don't have to lay much to get the Cardinals at home behind Carpenter. Take St Louis for 2 units.
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