Wednesday 9/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Remington Park - Race #5

#12 Bohemian Cowgirl	Debuter draws well to avoid any trouble out of the gate, and she goes first out for a team that won a similar race here last September. Not sure I'd be too thrilled at the 5/2 morning-line offering, but I want to take a look at her on the tote and track ahead of this.
#10 First Words	Not much from her at 11/1 in the debut try, but she's back with blinkers and really nowhere to go but up, so I'm willing to toss her in at a decent price in hopes she brings something significantly better today.
#8 Secret Verse	She makes some sense here after a couple of very unthreatening underneath finishes at Lone Star, but I'm guessing she'll find one or two of them too good again today.
Race Summary	Bohemian Cowgirl goes first time out with what feels like a modest enough bunch waiting for her -- wouldn't be any surprise to see her handle these out of the box.

Remington Park - Race #6

#6 Classic Rick	Think he's supposed to win this with a great outside tracking trip, though I acknowledge that the price may be somewhat unappealing for a guy with seven runner-up finishes and zero wins on his page right now. Either way, I still think he's going to drill these.
#4 Honest Opinion	Interested to see what he is capable of here with some form that feels a little cheap overall, but he's a reliable finisher who has turned in a couple of decent tries at those softer levels. Not impossible.
#3 Fireball Birdie	He checks some boxes with a ceiling high enough to win this for a powerhouse barn, but win or lose, I'm having a hard time coming up with a lot of reasons to be excited about his recent form that includes some pretty mild efforts in the late stages of those races. Would only be using him defensively...so I won't.
Race Summary	Classic Rick always shows up to his sprint races, and he should be in line for a great run of things from the outside while this group sorts things out without a serious confirmed frontrunner.

Remington Park - Race #7

#1 Accelerate Judy	She ran OK here last year when winning a couple times, and she has a dash of front-end pace in a race without a whole lot of serious early burn. Think she can win this from a touch off the pace if needed, but I'd love to see her have an aggressive go of it from the fence.
#6 Equus	She's got imposing form if you're willing to forgive her for the debut run and cross out the turf try, and she has enough pace to find a great spot potentially tracking the top choice or having a run of it herself.
#5 Holly Dolly	She's fast enough to be in touch early on, but I wonder if she's better going just a tiny bit longer than this six-furlong trip? There are a few races on the page that would do.
Race Summary	Accelerate Judy's form might be just a touch more appealing than it looks at first asking, and she was in the frame with $300K earner and multiple stakes winner Free Drop Maddy in the two-back run. Something like that might hit hard today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#6 BRIGHT FORECAST (7-2)	Solid Delaware resume, runs for cheapest tag yet, seeks repeat victory.
#1 BRIT’S CANDYMAN (5-2)	Has speed, rail and 3-9 mark at 6F, runs well fresh, gets class relief.
#8 RED DEVOLUTION (9-2)	Out-dueled the odds-on favorite before longshot passed by for the win.
Race Summary	BRIGHT FORECAST tracked a slow pace and edged clear to earn his top speed figure in the last year. He remains eligible for this spot under the nw/4 condition. He gets more pace to run at today, so bet to win and place and play a 1-6-8 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#2 ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR (8-5)	Ran well in defeat, bets on trainer-jockey duo have proven profitable.
#5 RITZ ON BROADWAY (6-1)	Backed up despite sloooow pace, steady route form prior, in new barn.
#3 ZIFFY BUG (6-1)	Hard-ridden on turn, caught longshot late at 6F two back when claimed.
Race Summary	ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR shook a duel on the final turn but got caught by the deep-closing winner in a longer route race at Monmouth. She appears rounding to another good effort at a distance which she finished a troubled second as the favorite. Bet to win and place and play a 2-3-5 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#3 TIME IS MAGIC (4-1)	Headstrong and erratic in well-bet return at Monmouth, all or nothing type.
#7 SISSINGHURST (7-2)	Late interest against better, adds blinkers for her third long-distance test.
#1 REPPAZZ (15-1)	Needed comeback race, rallied in sprint in her lone start on the grass last year.
Race Summary	TIME IS MAGIC, a twice-beaten and troubled favorite in MSW company out of town, posted a third-of-91 workout in :48-1/5 for her second start as a 3-year-old. She raced erratically on the backstretch at Monmouth and trailed into the turn. She gets Lasix again and gets Bravo to ride, so bet to win and place and play a 3/1,7/ALL trifecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs
PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 5	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 5-6-7) Pick 4 (min .50 cent) (Races 5-6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 4:48P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. NEGRA GATA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NEGRA GATA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfac e. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
7	NEGRA GATA	5/2	1/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	NEGRA GATA	7	5/2	Front-runner	79	82	87.4	64.0	59.0
10	FIGHT IN THE DOG	10	8/1	Front-runner	64	39	54.2	42.8	32.8
9	SLAINTE MHATH	9	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	58	61	58.0	26.4	19.9
1	SUNSET VIBES	1	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	42.4	49.8	37.3
3	PRECIOUS GRACE	3	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	59	31.3	55.9	47.9
5	ASHERAH'S RUN	5	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	34.4	38.2	29.7
8	BOLD NICKY	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	32	18	57.2	13.4	0.0
4	WHISKEYSTREETBLUES	4	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	35	23.0	34.2	20.7
6	PEDDLING HOPE	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	21.1	34.8	22.3
2	I'AM TOO	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	18.6	36.2	20.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 7	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE(Races 7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 3:54P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 4, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. INVALUABLE WILL is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * INVALUABLE WILL: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GANDY DANCING : Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HONOR AMONG MEN: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fou rth start after a layoff. STONE GUITAR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	INVALUABLE WILL	4/1	5/1
6	GANDY DANCING	3/1	6/1
4	HONOR AMONG MEN	2/1	7/1
5	STONE GUITAR	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	DEE'S WISEGUY	3	10/1	Front-runner	77	76	85.6	60.8	49.8
5	STONE GUITAR	5	6/1	Front-runner	85	75	80.4	66.0	59.5
4	HONOR AMONG MEN	4	2/1	Front-runner	75	67	79.2	66.4	61.9
7	INVALUABLE WILL	7	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	73	56.2	70.4	65.4
6	GANDY DANCING	6	3/1	Trailer	76	78	53.0	74.2	68.2
1	ANYTHING PAZIBLE	1	6/1	Trailer	82	64	21.6	66.8	57.8
2	BLUES CITY	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	68	44.4	62.0	49.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $14500 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 13 MOESAHANDFUL 25/1
# 10 MAX IS G MONEY 10/1
# 11 OVERBORE 6/1

MOESAHANDFUL has a very good shot to take this outing especially at such a decent 25/1. This trainer has done admirably as of late with entries racing at this distance and surface. MAX IS G MONEY - Has been running admirably lately and ought to be on or close to the front end early on. His 71 average has this colt with among the most competitive speed figures in this competition. OVERBORE - He should be given a chance given the decent speed numbers. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $43520 Class Rating: 82

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 CLIQUE 4/1
# 10 MISS SUSAN B 10/1
# 3 ADALENE 7/2

CLIQUE has a formidable shot to take this race. Decent shot today with second time Lasix. Irion has one of the most competitive winning percentages in this group of horses in this race with entries running at this distance and surface. Has competitive early pace and ought to fare solidly versus this field. MISS SUSAN B - This horse could stun this field at a big price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Colonial Downs - Race #7 - Post: 4:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#11 PROBATIONER (ML=12/1)
#10 BUOYANT (ML=5/2)
#1 COURAGEOUS MISSION (ML=3/1)


PROBATIONER - He keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. I like to wager on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong outing within the last 30 days. Recent speed ratings show dominant pattern of improvement. This gelding has the top turf figure in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here horse has a good chance. BUOYANT - A winning percentage the likes of what Toledo and Russell have achieved together is tremendous. Atop this thoroughbred on July 25th and Toledo is right back in the irons in this race. Just see his latest speed rating, 55. That one fits in this field. COURAGEOUS MISSION - Don't often see a favorable ROI like +36. This rider/handler duo has done well together over the last twelve months. This colt is in nice condition. Ran second on Aug 24th. I like this colt. Has the topmost earnings per race in here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 FLASHY DUDE (ML=5/1), #8 AMERICAN CITY (ML=8/1),

FLASHY DUDE - Pace makes the race and an absence of speed means this come from behinder will have to rally without any help.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #11 PROBATIONER on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,10,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,10,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,10,11] with [1,10,11] with [1,5,10,11,12] with [1,5,10,11,12] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Delaware Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:00pm - SO - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $29,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating:

#8 WICKED FINN (ML=8/1)
#2 LAYTOWN (ML=6/1)
#7 CELESTIAL MOON (ML=9/2)
#4 UNINVITED GUEST (ML=2/1)


WICKED FINN - When this jockey and trainer unite you have to take a look. Centeno and Kelly have been wonderful together. The most recent rating of 95 is the top last race speed fig in the bunch. Finished out of the money last out at Colonial Downs, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 8/1 makes me think he's got a chance. LAYTOWN - This horse obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has earned the highest speed rating on the grass at the dist-surf. This gelding is almost always in-the-money. A horse coming back this quickly after a nice outing is a good sign. CELESTIAL MOON - After the race aboard this equine on July 26th, the jockey is going to know the gelding much better. EPS (earnings per start) is something that I believe can be a most important selection factor. This animal is ranked numero uno in this group. This animal has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Hernandez, and this one could bound home the winner. UNINVITED GUEST - Ness has a very solid win pct in grass routes. This gelding should be conditioned to win. Gelding's last work was second fastest of the day for the distance. Three consecutive improved speed figs (71-82-86) make this horse a powerful contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 NAPOLEON'S WAR (ML=3/1), #6 SILVER STYLE (ML=8/1),

NAPOLEON'S WAR - Didn't show much run last time out of the box. Probably won't make an impact in today's race. This racer ran a run-of-the-mill speed rating in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat today running that figure. SILVER STYLE - I cannot play this continual non-winner. Gets the assignment finished now and then. Mediocre speed figure last time out at Delaware Park at 1 mile. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - CELESTIAL MOON - This handler knows how to get a thoroughbred ready for a turf route. Should be there at the wire.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #8 WICKED FINN on the win end if we get at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,7,8] with [2,7,8] with [2,4,5,7,8] with [2,4,5,7,8] Total Cost: $36