Thursday 9/5/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:33 AM

Scott Shapiro: Thursday Kentucky Downs Money-Back Special Plays

September 4, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

The 2024 Kentucky Downs meeting resumes on Thursday afternoon with a 10-race card that is headlined by the $500k One Dreamer Stakes. This also marks the return of Xpressbet and 1/ST BET’s Money Back Special offer where you get up to $10 back if your first Win bet finishes second or third. Here are the runners I will be wagering on using the promotion, assuming they are at or above their morning line price.

Race 5:

#3 Call Me Harry, as well as likely stalkers #2 Relampago Verde and #9 Idratherbeblessed, should ensure an honest pace in this 1 1/2 mile journey for second-level allowance foes. This should set the table for runners from off the pace. Horses like morning line favorite #7 Better Bet, #6 Camp Hope, and #10 King Curlin all make some sense given their running style and past history, but I prefer a late runner that is a significantly bigger price on the morning line.

#5 Clyde’s Got a Gun has been good to me, so admittedly I have a little soft spot for the son of Gun Runner, but also fully believe this is a great spot for the Helen Pitts trainee. He gets some class relief after a sixth-place effort in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup S. last month. The 4YO gelding has to prove himself over this unique configuration, but I have no concern for him getting the added ground and his ability to come with a strong late run if the pace is contentious. At 10-1 or higher, he makes for a great Money Back play in the first of the three selected races.

Play: #5 Clyde’s Got a Gun (10-1 ML)

Race 7:

This maiden special weight event at one-mile for 2YO fillies appears relatively wide-open since 3-1-morning line favorite #1 Jeweled City is not a gal I have much interest in. Sure, the daughter of City of Light was beaten just a neck in her debut at Ellis Park last month, but she had a favorable race shape and hung signficantly when it appeared she would be victorious in career start number one. Plus, Stall does not really point to this meet evidenced by his 2 for 20-record at Kentucky Downs over the last three years.

I will roll with #4 Mad About Marie. The Game Winner filly tries the turf for the initial time after a pair of off the board finishes over the main track to kick off her career for trainer Brendan Walsh. Walsh is 15 for 85 over the last three years at Kentucky Downs and off to a great start to this meet earning two wins in six starts last week, with all six runners hitting the board. I know she did not run much in her first two efforts, but expect that to change on the surface switch being out of an Empire Maker mare that was 2 for 8 in her career over the lawn and has produced the likes of Demolition Duke and Pursuit of Liberty thus far. Expect big improvement from this $75k Keeneland September 2023 purchase.
Play: #4 Mad About Marie (6-1 ML)

Race 9: One Dreamer Stakes

The lone stakes race on Thursday afternoon is a competitive one. The One Dreamer, named for the upset winner of the 1994 Breeders’ Cup, is for fillies and mares which not won a stake in 2024. Like most of the stake races at Kentucky Downs, this one appears wide-open.

I gave a long look to #6 Olivia Maralda for trainer William Walden, but in the end, I went with #9 Stir Crazy. The Mike Maker trainee enters her first start over this configuration after a tough loss in a stake at Horseshoe Indianapolis in early July. The Vancouver mare has been freshened up since by a barn that had a tough first week of the meet, but is more than likely to get things rolling before things move to Louisville next week. At her 12-1-morning line offering, Stir Crazy offers fair enough value to take a swing that she can put forth a career best performance at a distance she has thrived at since cutting back from 9- and 10-furlong events earlier this year.

Play: #9 Stir Crazy (12-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:35 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #4

#2 God's Favor	She gets blinkers after showing a bit of tracking pace last time out, and she's not meeting much other speed on paper today. Would love to see them take a shot on the engine.
#9 Willa T	She's got honest enough form and a high enough ceiling to think she is going to be tough in here as she tries claiming company for the first time. The one to beat.
#3 Vibez	I'm torn here -- she has a couple lines on her page that would make her interesting with this group, but she's still a bit of a question on the turf and going long. Class relief might do the trick.
Race Summary	God's Favor has some appeal with a potential pace trip waiting for him in a race without much committed speed. She needs much better, but maybe a favorable race flow while running with blinkers will help her get home.

Del Mar - Race #6

#7 Diamond Bar Gal	Not sure she's going to offer any appealing kind of price, but I think she's supposed to be a handful with this group today. She just missed when rising to try winners last out and fits right back. Maybe we haven't seen the best of her yet?
#13 Tiny Prancer	She didn't really pick up or stay at all in the route run, but her sprint debut back in April was interesting enough to think she might be able to land a piece at a midrange price while turning back.
#1 Nene Diamond	Hernandez rides here instead of the top choice, for whatever that's worth, as this one moves to the turf for the first start since that really solid debut score at Santa Anita in February. Let's see how that dangerous pace translates from the fence on the grass.
Race Summary	Diamond Bar Gal should be in another really good spot spying the pace after being right on the wire last time around, and I like that she has been heading in the right direction through her short career.

Del Mar - Race #8

#4 War Swift	He has split a couple fields so far, but I think that last try on the grass here with special weights is going to stack up favorably while dipping back in with turf claimers for the first time. Decent lean -- I'd probably sign on at some kind of high single-digit price.
#9 Black As My Heart	He hasn't finished his races with a whole lot of punch so far, but he has been in with better company and might be able to turn an even route run into something better with this group.
#1 Vols	He wouldn't be any surprise if he's able to get back to something like the June start when just a length off special weight company, but his form is pretty spotty and makes him tough to trust. Baseline seems to fit, but I'm not that excited at anything like the 4/1 ML offering.
Race Summary	War Swift might still have some upside while making just his third career start, and I think this is a good spot for him after a level kind of run against better last time out. Could see it.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:35 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#4 ROSE GOLD CANDY (6-1)	Useful debut, drops and shortens up, value remains.
#3 VICKI VALE (8-5)	Worked well on main track but debuted on the lawn for Russell.
#8 UPTOWN MISS (10-1)	Rallied for share in both 6F tries, steps up off the claim.
Race Summary	ROSE GOLD CANDY took some money and was in winning range for a half mile in her 7-1/2F debut in MSW company. She’s worth a win and place bet on the class drop and cutback to a short sprint for a 15-percent turf-to-dirt barn. Also play a 4/1,3,8/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#1 LOVELY LIZA (6-1)	Proven sprint form against better, all-or-nothing type play for new barn.
#3 CORA’S CHOICE (9-5)	Adapted well to rating tactics in comeback victory at 5-1/2F.
#2 LIVING IN STYLE (5-2)	Just missed off seven-month layoff in six-horse field at lower level.
Race Summary	LOVELY LIZA steps up off the claim, trying to recapture some of her sprint form as a 3yo last year, when she was 13/2-7-2 and earned $80k. She was well beaten at one mile in her last two starts and can’t afford a recurring slow start, but at least she won’t be as short of a price. Bet to win and place and play 1-2 and 1-3 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#1 BUNNY HOP (8-1)	Dead game in June win at this level the only time she raced on turf.
#6 OBSTREPEROUS (3-1)	Romped on soft footing, posted bullet work since, should sit dream trip.
#2 HOPESNDREAMS (2-1)	Won 5 of last 11 starts, the latest in front-end fashion on the grass.
Race Summary	BUNNY HOP’S lone turf try was a good one. She broke sharply from post 9 and ‘doggedly kept on’ in pursuit of the fleet-footed favorite, eventually wearing her down in the final sixteenth. She hails from a top-notch turf sprint barn and is too good to pass up at 8-1 on the morning line. Bet to win and place and play a 1,6/1,2,6/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne
PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race 7	WPS (12% Takeout) / $1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $1 Daily Double
Allowance • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 4:58P
(RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES) (PREFERENCE BY CONDITION ELIGIBILITY). IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT WILL BE CONTESTED AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. WOODCOCK FLIGHT (IRE) is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WOODCOCK FLIGHT (IRE): Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GREAT COOLNESS: Hors e ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). IRIS'S DREAM: Horse's win percentage at toda y's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	WOODCOCK FLIGHT (IRE)	5/1	7/2
6	GREAT COOLNESS	9/2	6/1
7	IRIS'S DREAM	3/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	CHAOS REIGNS	8	8/1	Front-runner	82	84	76.0	77.6	66.1
2	ALL CHOKED UP	2	6/1	Front-runner	89	77	69.0	73.8	64.8
7	IRIS'S DREAM	7	3/1	Stalker	81	87	80.7	83.1	74.6
6	GREAT COOLNESS	6	9/2	Stalker	81	84	76.8	81.9	74.4
3	WOODCOCK FLIGHT (IRE)	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	95	84	83.5	84.1	79.6
1	TOUGH LITTLE NUT	1	5/2	Trailer	93	92	81.0	81.0	74.0
4	BONS TEMPS ROULE	4	12/1	Trailer	71	73	64.9	74.0	62.0
5	NEW YEAR SURPRISE	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	92	85	47.6	70.2	58.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:36 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Colonial Downs
PURCHASE

Colonial Downs - Race 6	$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Daily Double $1 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / $.50 Early Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Outer Turf • Age 2 • CR: 72 • Purse: $60,000 • Post: 2:37P
(RAIL AT 90 FEET). OUTER TURF FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS $25,000).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ALL THE LUCK is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALL THE LUCK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FEAR THE FACT S: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WARHEART: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power R ating.
9	ALL THE LUCK	8/1	5/2
10	FEAR THE FACTS	12/1	6/1
1	WARHEART	5/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	ALL THE LUCK	9	8/1	Front-runner	71	67	67.5	60.4	55.9
10	FEAR THE FACTS	10	12/1	Front-runner	79	61	59.7	46.5	39.5
1	WARHEART	1	5/2	Stalker	70	63	29.4	59.7	56.2
6	FLAMINGPROPOSITION	6	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	54.0	15.2	5.2
8	EL TINMARIN	8	8/1	Trailer	70	60	29.4	56.9	50.9
5	ACE ON THE TURN	5	30/1	Trailer	70	34	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: KING EXPRESS (6/1) [Jockey: Carrasco Victor R - Trainer: Casse Mark E], FICTION (7/2) [Jockey: Karamanos Horacio - Trainer: Casse Mark E], TURK AND WENDY (12/1) [Jockey: Sanchez Mychel J - Trainer: Beattie Todd M], HONOR MAGS (

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $49680 Class Rating: 92

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $30,000 OR LESS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 GUANA CAY 3/1
# 6 XENA 8/5
# 1 BABY GUNDIN 5/2

I've got to go with GUANA CAY. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 82 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the strongest in this group of animals. Has to be given a shot - I like the figs from the last competition. She has decent class ratings, averaging 94, and has to be given consideration here. XENA - Has been close up at the finish most every time lately. Has very strong Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this race. BABY GUNDIN - Has run very well when travelling a dirt route race. Rodriguez has a strong winning percentage with horses running in dirt route races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 67

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 MY LIL BLUE BEAUTY 5/1
# 4 KP TALKOFTHETOWN 5/2
# 7 SUE NAHMI 3/1

I've got to go with MY LIL BLUE BEAUTY. Has to be given a shot versus this field displaying very good figures recently and an average speed figure of 59 under similar conditions. Posted a reliable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. Could provide positive profits based on decent recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 53. KP TALKOFTHETOWN - Must be given a shot based on the competitive speed fig recorded in the last outing. Should be carefully examined here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. SUE NAHMI - Looks solid for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid numbers in short races as of late. Looks decent versus this group and will most likely be one of the leaders.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Remington Park - Race #4 - Post: 7:57pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#3 SUPER BRADY (ML=6/1)

SUPER BRADY - Ran last time out against tougher competition at Lone Star Park. The move down the class ladder should suit him well. While the finish was disappointing, this race horse made a good stretch move last time around the track at Lone Star Park. Should do better right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 DOSE'S DREAM (ML=5/2), #4 MONGOLIAN BEE (ML=3/1), #2 SHACKS WAY (ML=7/2),

DOSE'S DREAM - Mediocre speed figure last out at Remington Park at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this mount will improve too much in today's event. MONGOLIAN BEE - Has been conquered as the favorite the last two times. A repeat is probably in store. SHACKS WAY - 7/2 odds isn't enough for this entrant when examining the most recent outings.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SUPER BRADY - The odds should be right to bet on this beautiful animal. There are some 'hidden' pluses in the last contest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 SUPER BRADY is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:00pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#3 JOYA DEL SUR (ML=6/1)
#5 KISS ME HARDY (ML=9/5)
#4 SOCIAL LADY (ML=7/2)

JOYA DEL SUR - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. KISS ME HARDY - Kirby drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more data to think this one should have a chance to win at this level. Don't often see a profitable return on investment like +263. This rider/conditioner duo has done well together over the last twelve months. Getting a break of 5 pounds from last race at Delaware Park. She should make the most of this advantage. SOCIAL LADY - Last out, this one was in a race at Penn National in a race with an Equibase class figure of 94. Dropping drastically in class rating this time around puts her in a solid position right here in this race. This horse picks up a lot of cash per race around the track. Uppermost in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DIVINE GRACE (ML=5/2), #1 GO MARGIE GO (ML=8/1), #2 RAGTIME BELLE (ML=8/1),

DIVINE GRACE - Common fig in the last race at Laurel at 1 1/8 miles. Don't feel this questionable contender will improve too much in today's event. GO MARGIE GO - Finished seventh last time out. Would have to move up to be in the money in today's event. Don't think this steed will make a winning move today. That last speed figure was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class figure. RAGTIME BELLE - No speed in this contest to help this closer's efforts.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - JOYA DEL SUR - This mount is a gem of consistency. Check out her running lines. Worth a prime investment today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 JOYA DEL SUR to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,4,5] with [3,4,5] with [2,3,4,5,6] with [2,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36

Thursday 9/5/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 9/5/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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