Saturday 9/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:34 AM

Meet the Contenders: $500,000 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs |

September 3, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s Grade 3 Virginia Derby gets a new spring home and new dirt surface in 2025, but not before the 1-1/8 miles turf test brings together the Class of ’24 at Colonial Downs as it has since 1989. Past winners here include eventual Eclipse Award turf champions like Kitten’s Joy, English Channel and Gio Ponti.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Virginia Derby (Race 10):

#1-HERCHEE: Most lightly raced member of this year’s Virginia Derby has won both starts to date in Kentucky. Capensis won this race in 2022 coming off only a maiden and allowance race on his resume like this son of Twirling Candy. Veteran horsewoman Helen Pitts, who can become the first female trainer to win the Virginia Derby, has had success this year with a limited stable and turns once again to jockey Edgar Morales.

#2-GRAND MO THE FIRST: Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, Tampa Bay Derby and Swale on dirt this spring, the Kentucky Derby 18th-place finisher got his first turf win August 3 at Gulfstream. Bears Den Stakes victory was his first start since May and first on turf since running third in the Zuma Beach last fall at Santa Anita. Jockey Paco Lopez takes the call for Victor Barboza Jr. as regular rider Emisael Jaramillo stays at Gulfstream for the Florida Sire Stakes series.

#3-DETERMINISTIC: Grade 3 Gotham winner has lost 4 straight, but took to the turf with minor placings in the Grade 3 Manila and Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational, the latter 27 days ago. Manny Franco piloted 2016 Virginia Derby winner Deeply Undervalued, and he takes over for regular rider Joel Rosario, who will be riding at Kentucky Downs on Saturday. Christophe Clement won this race in 2008 with rising star Gio Ponti.

#4-IZZY D’ORO: Pacesetter in his last 3 starts, he faded to finish out of the money in the Tale of the Cat and the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational after wiring allowance runners at Keeneland. Longshot is 1-for-6 on turf lifetime and will be ridden for the first time by David Cohen. Trainer Blake Kelly seeks his first graded stakes victory.

#5-FRONTLINE WARRIOR: Trainer Shug McGaughey won last year’s Virginia Derby with Integration (and in 2011 with Air Support). War Front colt is just 1-for-7 and has lost 4 straight, finishing out of the money in 3 stakes. Vince Cheminaud rode last time in a fifth-place Kent Stakes try at Delaware Park and returns in the saddle.

#6-IN A JAM: Winner of Gulfstream’s Not Surprising Stakes on the Tapeta synthetic surface, this one followed with consecutive Colonial turf efforts of some interest. He ran fourth in the listed Boston Stakes and then third in the Grade 2 Secretariat, both over a 1-mile trip. Extends to the longest distance of his career for trainer Mark Casse, who conditioned last year’s Grade 1 Beverly D. at Colonial winner Fev Rover.

#7-DESVIO: Delaware Park’s 9-1 upset winner of the Kent Stakes eyes a third consecutive grass victory. Trainer Madison Meyers goes back to jockey Ben Curtis, who guided this Yoshida colt last time out. Meyers, who got her first flat victory in 2020 after conditioning steeplechase runners, has posted her first double-digit flat win season in 2024 and hails from Virginia’s Middleburg Training Center.

#8-MASSIF: Trainer Brittany Russell and husband / jockey Sheldon team up with last year’s Laurel Futurity runner-up. Sky Mesa colt has plenty of local experience with a maiden and allowance victory at Colonial among 5 trips to the post. Deep closer will need some pace help. He was fourth on the Preakness undercard in the James W. Murphy Stakes, his only start above the allowance ranks in 2024.

#9-ECHO LANE: Florida-based colt arrived at Colonial in August for trainer Rohan Cricthon and since scored a starter allowance victory vs. older horses. Returns to 3-year-olds in the Virginia Derby, but has not finished in the money in 3 prior starts starts. Treasure Beach colt’s 4 victories are most among the field. Jockey Antonio Gallardo rides again (also rode In A Jam last time).

#10-OSCAR’S WORLD: Grandson of 2004 Virginia Derby winner Kitten’s Joy seeks his first stakes victory, owning maiden and allowance scores at Gulfstream and Ellis Park. Trainer Brian Lynch goes back to jockey Martin Garcia. Set the pace and gave way late over the Virginia Derby’s 9-furlong trip last out in the Dueling Grounds Derby Preview at Ellis. Has run nearly all his best races with Lasix, which will not be available in this spot.

#11-FULMINEO: Two-time stakes winner of Pimlico’s James W. Murphy and Colonial’s Boston, the Arnaud Delacour trainee looks to run his local unbeaten streak to 3-for-3. Bolt d’Oro colt disappointed last out when a tired sixth in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational, but should appreciate a slightly shorter trip Saturday and softer competition. Victor Carrasco reunites in the saddle; he rode him to victory in his maiden breaker here last September.

#12-ZVEREV: Another grandson of 2004 Virginia Derby winner Kitten’s Joy in this lineup (along with Oscar’s World), he’ll look to bounce back from a sixth-place finish in Saratoga’s Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes last month. Owns victories on the Tapeta synthetic surface at Turfway and on the turf at Churchill Downs in maiden and allowance company, respectively. Trainer Cherie DeVaus is enjoying her best season in 2024 and will turn to jockey Jorge Ruiz for the first time as Jose Ortiz rides Kentucky Downs instead on Saturday.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2024, 07:34 AM

Race of the Week: FSS Dr. Fager at Gulfstream | Saturday

September 4, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The annual Florida Sire Stakes series stretches out over 3 races and kicks off this Saturday at Gulfstream Park for the 2-year-olds. The fillies match up in Race 6, the Desert Vixen, where Sharp Susan Stakes winner Win N Your In should be solidly favored. The colts & geldings take center stage in Race 10, the Dr. Fager.

Horsesplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take part Saturday in a $10 money-back special promo for both Gulfstream stakes races. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third in either race.

Field Depth:
Class is a difficult estimate with lightly raced horses, but CANDYCRUMBS already has a stakes victory, while CLASSIC OF COURSE is stakes-placed. No major edges can be gleaned at this stage.

Pace:
You expect plenty of early pressure in a 6-furlong juvenile race on dirt, and I'MBIGGERTHANILOOK has set the tone in all 3 of his starts. RATED BY MERIT, an exceptionally fast debut winner, should also be into the mix from the outset.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-CLASSIC OF COURSE: Local debut winner in May held his own fourth in Saratoga's Tremont before a Gulfstream return second in the Proud Man Stakes over this trip August 10. Should break with a clean start, unlike last time, and jockey Emisael Jaramillo looks for back-to-back wins in the Dr. Fager after piloting Bentornato a year ago.

#2-NEOEQUOS: Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee has seen the highs and lows in 2 starts, losing the jock at the start of his debut and winning off handily in his second start. Barn won this race in 2019 with Chance It and jockey Miguel Vasquez won here in 2022 with Awesome Story. Last was absolutely good enough and barn is redhot.

#3-I'MBIGGERTHANILOOK: Wire-to-wire winner over 5 furlongs in his second of 3 starts, the extra furlong of the Proud Man Stakes took its toll after making the lead again. Pressure from outside by Rated by Merit makes this task perhaps even more difficult. Trainer Jose Pinchin won this race in 2016 with Three Rules.

#4-CANDYCRUMBS: Rallying Colonial Downs winner August 3 in the restricted Hickory Tree Stakes, the additional distance should be more than suitable. Top rider Edgard Zayas takes over for high percentage Mary Lightner barn and this one's debut dashing locally was solid enough to know he'll handle the track. Sire Valiant Minster was responsible for last year's Dr. Fager winner Bentornato.

#5-LAWLER: Longshot has been defeated by 13 and 15 lengths in a pair of maiden races and has been his own worst enemy going into, and standing in, the starting gate. You'd prefer not to be drawn close by him.

#6-ZIZKA: Already 5 starts into his career, breaking through last time over 6-1/2 furlongs with a driving finish. No doubt has a fitness edge no the cutback in distance and experience edge on these, but trainer Javier Gonzalez hitting just 4% on the year.

#7-JUST RELAX: Dueling debut runner-up over a sloppy track could make second-start improvement. Chased home Naughty Rascal in the slop July 21 and that runner came back to best a few of these in the Proud Man Stakes next out. Trainer Jose D'Angelo won this race a year ago with Bentornato.

#8-RATED BY MERIT: Smoking winner first-time out July 13 for Michael Yates barn that has won the Dr. Fager twice (2018, 2021). That 92 Beyer figure is going to make him an odds-on favorite and a repeat anywhere near 1:10-2/5 on the clock would make him a daylight winner. Four spaced-out works awaiting this race and benefits with early speed from the outside draw.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
RATED BY MERIT was brilliant over this track and trip, and avoids trouble and standing time in the gate with his outside draw.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
JUST RELAX has a bullet workout since chasing a next-out stakes winner and trainer D'Angelo is ridiculous 6-14 in Gulfstream juvenile stakes since 2019.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 exacta RATED BY MERIT over JUST RELAX as numbers 1,2,4 all should be covered more in the exacta under the favorite and provide some value here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 07:56 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 7, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race card featuring top New York bred two-and three-year olds battling in Sires Stakes Finals. The main event rolls in Race 5, the International Trot with a $1,000,000 purse. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 8, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (3:30 PM EST)

2-Super Chapter (7/5)-The Marcus Melander pupil looks like a good one and can win on large or smaller ovals. Dexter Dunn leaves from the rail and should look to go gate to wire. That was the game plan here on July 25, drew off by 3 lengths that night and will try to take control early on again.
4-BJM'S Lil Man (4-1)-Winner in 4 of the last 5 starts, and posted a victory in its only race at YR. Gets Jason Bartlett's services tonight and the meets top pilot could make a winning difference.

Race 9 (4:00 PM EST)

1-Desperate Man (3/2)-The Travis Alexander trainee has won 13 of 16 at Yonkers and has never missed the board here. Most of those wins didn't come when drawing the rail and the race goes through the 6-year-old.
5-Dunkin' (8-1)-Tim Tetrick take a seat behind the Di Domenico entry and he has steered him in the past. If the Pet Rock 4-year-old stays pacing as soon as the wings fold, he should be rolling hard late in the mile. Has won 6 of 19 at YR and could offer a square price.
9-Coaches Corner (9/2)-Hasn't taken a picture since July 20th but does good work at Yonkers hitting the board in 16 of 18 on the Hill Top with 9 pictures. This looks like a pocket ride possibility following Desperate Man when the wings fold and could trip out at solid price.

Race 10 (4:30 PM EST)

4-Calculus Risk (6-1)-Has only 1 win which came here back in June and has been no match for Royal Mission and #1-My Debt Collecter. Looking to fade the rail horse in its Yonkers debut, and the price should be large on the Perry Simser trainee. Could get sucked around and Jordan Stratton knows how to rally down the lane on this oval.
6-Royal Mission (2-1)-Ships here after battling tough customers up in Wbsb and came a close 2nd in her only start at Yonkers. Scott Zeron should have enough gate speed to land in a close-up seat and can be a main player versus this group.

Race 11 (5:00 PM EST)

4-Thirsty Thursday (6/5)-Matt Kakaley should have the pedal down and be no worse than 2nd on the opening turn. Willing to give this colt an edge because of its gate speed and is a perfect 1 for 1 at YR.
6-Courts On Fire (12-1)-Yannick Gingras makes an appearance and the driver upgrade makes the Blake Macintosch pupil an interesting play. Did fade down the lane in its only race here after being used hard in the opening quarter. Willing to use at a big number, and could be heard from down the lane if the start goes well.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,4/1,5,9/4,6/4,6
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 07:57 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #3

#12 Snowdonia	He was a little one-paced in the final yards last time out, but I wonder if he might kick home just a bit better with that first route trip under his belt. Could find a decent spying spot from out here.
#11 Johnson's Magic	Wouldn't be a surprise to see him move forward while stretching out after what felt like a useful enough sprint debut here last month. Forward player can be in the mix throughout.
#8 Coulair	He might be an OK fit here as he makes his American debut, as I don't think he's meeting the deepest group today on paper. Get a look at him ahead of this, but he might be a player.
Race Summary	Snowdonia and Johnson's Magic look like the right pair to me, but the former should be a better price on the board and still has some similar upside.

Del Mar - Race #5

#12 Sea Runner	Think you can go a few ways in this one, and it wouldn't be a shock to see this guy graduate with this group after a decent debut run going long. Might move forward from that one.
#2 Thought Process	He looks like he's supposed to be well meant in this after a super-sharp score last out when sent around two turns for the first time. Price might not be much, but he seemed to stamp himself as a legit one with that win.
#4 Fondest Dream	She was an early 2-year-old winner who might have come forward a bit since that debut score, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the picture with these. Take a look in the paddock.
Race Summary	Sea Runner has some midrange appeal in here while making her second career start -- #9 Caitlin Fever is another who enters this winless but might have a claim on a piece of it or more.

Del Mar - Race #9

#1 Anisette	This one feels like it should be a fun battle between two short-priced standouts, but I think this one is better this year than she was when Didia beat her last fall, so I think she's going to be able to turn the tables after sitting close behind a modest pace.
#6 Didia	She handled the top choice in the Rodeo Drive last year, and she has been knocking heads against some of the better East Coast turfers in recent starts. Should get the jump.
#5 Royal Charter	She's pretty cheap compared to the top two -- they're both Grade I winners and she's still eligible for a N2X, but she might be just tactical enough to stay close to modest splits and stick around for a piece of this graded spot.
Race Summary	Anisette and Didia feel a clear cut above the rest in here, and I am a big enough believer in Anisette right now to think she's going to be able to turn the tables on Didia from their meeting last season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 07:57 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#2 SEMPER FIDELIS (6-1)	Can use speed well, all-or-nothing type at cheapest claiming level to date.
#1 ZOOMER (2-1)	Been burning serious money, takes magnified class drop in the field.
#3 SPECTRIER (6-1)	Rallied for a win and two seconds in last three starts, takes class hike.
Race Summary	SEMPER FIDELIS disappointed on the class drop in a comeback sprint, but he can’t be discounted for winning back-to-back routes up front before the eligibility date for this race. He gets in as the co-light weight in the field and is worth a win and place bet. Also play 2-1 and 2-3 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #6

#11 SOLEMN OATH (10-1)	Re-awakened on turf in second start this year from similar post.
#1 BOARDWALK FRIES (4-1)	Won turf routes on first and soft footing in June, moves outside in.
#5 BRAMBLE BUSH (6-1)	Can be excused for latest, carried speed to stretch in prior pair.
Race Summary	SOLEMN OATH ‘loomed a stretch threat’ but settled for second behind the late-running favorite. It was her best turf performance in a couple years and the barn can keep them sharp. Bet to win and place on the class rise.

Delaware Park - Race #7

#5 PARTY MONSTER (8-1)	Winless at distance, passing gear comes in handy in this spot, price stab.
#2 MAGNIFICENT PEARL (9-5)	Class drop could pave way to first win this year after 3-7 mark in 2023.
#1 WIN DIXIE RONNIE (3-1)	Should lead for as far as she goes from the rail, gets Cedeno.
Race Summary	PARTY MONSTER returns to her claim level and a main-track route. She led at the stretch call and dug in despite drifting to third. Her 0-for-10 record at the distance is offset by a lively pace flow and tempting price. Bet to win and place and play 5-1 and 5-2 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 07:58 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 4	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
SO $12,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $14,900 • Post: 2:05P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2024 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 7, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 7, 2024 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED)(HIGHWEIGHTS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * INNER HARBOR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in ave rage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LEMON BOMB: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. THE PRINCESS SAYS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LI'L MISS CAMILLE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layof f.
6	INNER HARBOR	9/2	5/1
2	LEMON BOMB	7/2	5/1
5	THE PRINCESS SAYS	5/2	6/1
7	LI'L MISS CAMILLE	5/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	INNER HARBOR	6	9/2	Front-runner	87	83	92.6	72.4	68.9
5	THE PRINCESS SAYS	5	5/2	Front-runner	79	82	65.6	74.4	68.9
7	LI'L MISS CAMILLE	7	5/1	Front-runner	82	76	65.0	61.6	54.6
4	HONEYCOMB	4	10/1	Front-runner	79	82	32.2	39.8	27.8
2	LEMON BOMB	2	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	77	55.8	74.4	71.4
3	FUTURE FLAY	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	63	55.2	61.0	49.0
1	QUEEN OF CHILL	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	65	42.4	50.2	38.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 07:59 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 2	Leg 2 of the Tropical Turf Pick 3
Handicap • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $75,000 • Post: 4:47P
GP - R8 - (RAIL AT 17 FEET). THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. PURSE $75,000 (INCLUDES $8,000 FROM FTHA-FOA, $5,000 FROM FBIF, $5,000 FROM FTBOA). FREE NOMINATION BY THURSDAY, AUGUST 29. WEIGHTS: FRIDAY, AUGUST 30. NO FEE TO ENTER. STARTERS TO BE NAMED BY USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS WILL BE WEIGHTED AT TIME OF ENTRY. PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO HIGHWEIGHTS. EQUAL WEIGHT PREFERENCE WILL BE DETERMINED BY TOTAL EARNINGS IN 2023-24. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LORENZ (BRZ): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CATTIN: Horse ha s the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. VLADISLAV: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. AWESOME BOURBON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	LORENZ (BRZ)	5/2	6/1
8	CATTIN	12/1	6/1
7	VLADISLAV	15/1	7/1
5	AWESOME BOURBON	3/1	8/1
2	PORTOFINO	7/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	GRAND DAVID	1	12/1	Front-runner	96	91	97.1	79.3	71.3
3	K. C. CHIEF	3	6/1	Front-runner	100	99	93.9	47.4	38.9
2	PORTOFINO	2	7/2	Front-runner	98	96	93.4	93.4	84.4
5	AWESOME BOURBON	5	3/1	Stalker	94	92	87.9	87.9	77.4
4	BRAWN	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	91	99.3	85.0	74.0
8	CATTIN	8	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	98	94	98.0	90.3	82.3
6	LORENZ (BRZ)	6	5/2	Trailer	97	94	87.4	91.6	86.1
7	VLADISLAV	7	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	100	88	89.8	88.0	79.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 07:59 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $11492 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2024 JIM BADER FUTURITY. WEIGHT 124 LBS. NOTE: THIS STAKE RACE IS SUBJECT TO THE 2024 IOWA QUARTER HORSE HAIR TESTING PROTOCOLS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 CR FREIGHTTRAIN 3/1
# 3 PRIZE FLYTER 5/2
# 7 TH ALOTA RIP 6/1

I've got to go with CR FREIGHTTRAIN. Has performed quite well recently in short races, posting a nifty 76 avg Equibase speed fig. Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in short races in this field. This one has been constatntly racing well recently. PRIZE FLYTER - Is a strong contender based on figs earned recently under today's conditions. She has to be given consideration given the competitive speed numbers.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 07:59 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Stakes - 9.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 93

S. W. RANDALL PLATE H. - FOR THREE YEARS OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 TO ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AUGUST 31, 2024 WITH AN ADDITIONAL $750 TO ENTER AND $1,000 TO START. $50,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH 55% GOES TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH AND 4% TO FIFTH, AND 2% TO SIXTH THROUGH EIGHTH, FINISHERS NINETH THROUGH TWELFTH WILL

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 AT ATTENTION 7/2
# 1 SUNBIRD 3/1
# 7 PHANTOM RIDE 8/1

I've got to go with AT ATTENTION. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Ran a strong last race. He has been running admirably and the speed figs are among the strongest in this group. SUNBIRD - Has solid front-end speed and will probably fare soundly versus this field. Has to be given a shot - I like the figs from the last race. PHANTOM RIDE - Change in Lasix (on Lasix) may be the secret to a major improvement. Appears to have a strong class edge based on the latest company kept.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 07:59 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:00pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#7 BEAU CIEL (ML=8/1)
#9 HAWKSTONE (ML=8/1)

BEAU CIEL - I seem to always make money betting Lynch horses on the turf. That barn has a strong win percent for this distance/surface. This trainer has a super ROI with first time starters. HAWKSTONE - Lynch is great in turf sprints. This animal should have no excuses if he doesn't win. I like that this first-timer has been working over the Delaware Park oval and makes his debut here today. This trainer has an ROI of +135 with horses first time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 STAYGOLDPONYBOY (ML=7/2), #3 HOT STOTT (ML=9/2), #8 JUST KEEP LOOKING (ML=5/1),

STAYGOLDPONYBOY - The Brain always tells me to stay away from ponies in short distance contests that haven't finished in the money in sprint affairs lately. Doubtful that the speed fig he recorded on August 7th will hold up in this event. HOT STOTT - Don't figure that this entrant has what it takes to be victorious this time out. JUST KEEP LOOKING - Just don't believe he is worth the risk at the probable odds.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - BEAU CIEL - Works coming into this event have been at Delaware Park. Given this is a first time starter, the familiarity of the track bodes well for his chance at a victory.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #7 BEAU CIEL on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 08:00 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race #5 - Post: 3:30pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 98 Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf S.

Rating:

#2 THOUGHT PROCESS (ML=9/5)

THOUGHT PROCESS - Jock hops up on after getting to know the horse by riding in the last race. That's always a good indicator. In this race here, this thoroughbred has notched the highest speed fig at the distance, so I have to give her the edge. Last race out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. Pretty good indication she can close well, and should be right there at the end in today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CASALU (ML=7/2), #4 FONDEST DREAM (GB) (ML=5/1), #7 SUPA SPEED (ML=6/1),

CASALU - A bit of a less than stellar try when this filly finished third. Don't think this questionable contender will make an impact in today's race. That last speed figure was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class figure. FONDEST DREAM (GB) - The long vacation since Apr 20th is somewhat discouraging. SUPA SPEED - Don't think this questionable contender will make an impact today. That last speed rating was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - THOUGHT PROCESS - That bullet work should put this racer on edge versus the rest of the group. Worth a wager today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #2 THOUGHT PROCESS to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	2 with [5,8] with [4,5,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	2 with [5,7,8] with [4,5,7,8,12] with [4,5,7,8,12] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 11:06 AM

Brian Nadeau: Gulfstream Full-Card Picks | Sat

September 7, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Race 1: Sire Stakes Saturday kicks off with a price, as 2 CAJUN PRIME cuts back, drops from an MSW, and figures to get a hot pace to stalk as well. Part of the speed brigade comes from 6 SATURN’S GHOST, who chased wild splits on debut and tired, but should move forward off that. Not sold on 8 BELLA MENDY, an MSW dropper who can improve, but Barboza just 9% on turf, there are some mixed signals here.

SELECTIONS: 2-6-8-11

Race 2: Not trying to beat 3 NELIDA in her comeback on the class drop, since her Tapeta races earlier in the year are best, and she seems spotted to score for D’Angelo. The main (only?) danger is 4 DARLING DARLEY, as she ran well on Tapeta when 2nd two-back, and is next up if the chalk isn’t ready off the shelf. The gap to the rest, including 7 NAA DUDETTE, seems a big one, but she can get a piece.

SELECTIONS: 3-4-7-1

Race 3: The class drop that stakes winner 4 FREEDOM PRINCIPLE gets today makes him tough, as he’s been facing tons better, while holding his own, and note he adds Lasix too. Getting away from stakes foes won’t hurt 3 SALVATTORE PRINCE either, but he’s got 5 lengths to make up on the pick when they met two-back, which might be too much to overcome. Don’t sleep on 2 CUBAN THUNDER, who was 2nd to ‘Prince on Tapeta in December, and may be primed in his first start since April for Delgado.

SELECTIONS: 4-3-2-6

Race 4: Stabbing with newcomer 3 DASH OF LEMON, who has done no running in four starts, but is now with Antonucci, drops stiffly, and adds Lasix too. Both 4 SHINING SKYE and 6 DARLING LUNA are more likely off their turf form, albeit at underlaid odds, with little margin for error.

SELECTIONS: 3-4-6-1

Race 5: It’s Best Bet time with 7 WICKLOW GAL, who looks like the controlling speed, has won two in a row at this level, and has no questions to answer either. Conversely, while you get three wins in a row between 5 SHE FLED THE SCENE and 4 CARBERNET, the former broke a long losing streak last time, while the latter is rising in class off a slow win, so both streaks seem in jeopardy.

SELECTIONS: 7-5-4-2

Race 6: The Desert Vixen for the 2yo fillies has an overwhelming favorite in 1 WIN N YOUR IN, and while the rail might complicate things, anything close to her easy win in the open Sharp Susan would beat this field comfortably. A nice outside attack post gives some hope to 6 WIGGLE AN' WINE, at least for 2nd, a spot she finished when behind the chalk in the Sharp Susan, though making up the 4 � lengths is another story. That was some debut from 3 R MORNING BREW, who dominated state breds for Saffie and Zayas in the slop, but
steps, and that win won’t scare ‘Win

SELECTIONS: 1-6-3-5

Race 7: Running in a stakes on debut isn’t ideal, but 4 RAFID ran a credible 4th, so now on the drop, with that experience, he can break through here. They’ll bet 11 BIG SHOULDERS hard off a 3rd behind two good ones on debut, in what was a very fast race for the level, though this wide draw tempers the enthusiasm some. Tab the tote on the Spatz firster 10 BIG MONARCH, as he’s worked well for a 16% debut barn.

SELECTIONS: 4-11-10-3

Race 8: It’s Longshot time in the Mambo Meister with 1 GRAND DAVID, who ran huge chasing wild splits early behind Fly the W when 2nd at giant odds last time, drew well, and can get first run off a ton of speed.
Stalkers 5 AWESOME BOURBON and 6 LORENZ will also be flattered by the race flow, and the former can improve 2nd-off a long layoff and off-the-claim for D’Angelo (19%), while the latter could finally break through on the local turf with blinkers.

SELECTIONS: 1-5-6-4

Race 9: A solid 2nd against winners gives 7 ALL CLASS a tepid edge over 8 ALESS QUEEN, who blasted maidens but steps up, though neither are locks in a deep race. Expecting better from 6 AMY THE
BUTCHER, who disappointed when going to Saffie last time, but can rebound.

SELECTIONS: 7-8-6-2

Race 10: The Dr. Fager for 2yo marks the long-awaited return of 8 RATED BY MERIT, who was the fastest 2yo in the country when he won his debut by 9 � lengths on 7/13, and that 8/21 bullet says he’s lost nothing off his fastball, and is ready for an encore. It was good to see 2 NEOEQUOS put it together in his second start after tossing the jock in debut, and he seem the biggest threat to ‘Merit, but he must improve multiple lengths, or hope the chalk regresses, to get there first. Look for 4 CANDYCRUMBS to run on late for a piece off a state-bred stakes win in Virginia.

SELECTIONS: 8-2-4-1

Race 11: The finale looks between 5 REMERTON and 6 NOBLE TIGER, who were 4th and 2nd when they met last time, but the former is now OTC for Delgado (19%), which says he can turn the tables. The MSW drop for 8 HIGH PRINCE will help, though he did no running at 34-1 on debut.

SELECTIONS: 5-6-8-9

Best Bet: R5: #7 Wicklow Gal (9-5)
* Looks like controlling speed on paper
* Two easy wins in a row at 10k level
* Both rivals (#4 and #5) may regress

Longshot: R8: #1 Grand David (12-1)
* Huge first-run 2nd behind ‘Fly on turf
* Stalker can sit just off a ton of speed
* Fits on paper in wide-open ‘Meister