Sunday 9/8/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2024, 10:05 AM

Scott Shapiro: Sunday's Kentucky Downs Plays

September 7, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

The second week of the 2024 Kentucky Downs meeting concludes on Sunday afternoon with an eleven-race card that includes four consecutive stakes starting in Race 7. Three of those four stakes-events happen to be Xpressbet and 1/ST BET’s Money Back Special Races for the day. Here are the horses I will be using my promotion on, assuming they are at or above their morning line price.

Race 7: Juvenile Mile

The first stake is for 2YOs traveling eight-furlongs where there appears to be plenty of speed signed on. Hopefully, #5 I’m Otter Here can avoid getting caught up in a battle early on because he was visually impressive in his maiden breaking victory at Ellis Park on August 18. The son of Munnings showed ability right off the rip when he ran into a live group on debut that included last Sunday’s Juvenile Sprint Stakes winner Chasing Liberty. He came from off the pace to finish third that July afternoon setting him up for his first lifetime victory on the stretch out at the Pea Patch last month. I’m Otter Here appears to have plenty of upside heading into his first start against winners. If jockey Jaime Torres can relax the colt just off the pace, he has a big shot to spring the minor upset.

Play: #5 I’m Otter Here (9-2 ML)

Race 9: Juvenile Fillies

Another one-mile event, but this one for the young ladies is next on the Money Back Special itinerary where on paper it once again appears no one will get away with setting a moderate early tempo. I will take a swing with #12 Tigerish. The Tiz the Law filly took advantage of a favorable race shape and patient ride by Declan Cannon to win going away at Horseshoe Indianapolis back in late June. After the debut score, Tigerish was sold for $200k at the Fasig-Tipton Horses of Racing Age sale and has apparently been pointed to this spot since. Trainer Richard Baltas has sent out two live runners at this meet and the morning line offering is far too juicy to pass up.

Play: #12 Tigerish (20-1 ML)

Race 10: Gun Runner

The final Money Back race of the week is for 3YOs and again at the one-mile distance where #8 Briliant Berti looks to rebound from a disappointing loss at odds-on in the Secretariat (G2) at Colonial Downs. The Noble Mission colt is the deserving morning-line favorite, but I prefer the second choice, #12 Neat. The son of Constitution continues to improve steadily for trainer Rob Atras. His versatility is one of his biggest weapons since unlike many others, he is not raceshape dependent. Expect Junior Alvarado to have him at least a few lengths off the early pacesetters as he ships in from New York in hopes of making it three wins in a row.

Play: #12 Neat (7-2 ML)

Good luck!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-08-2024, 07:23 AM

Al Cimaglia: Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis

September 8, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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The Red Mile has a 12-race card with the $1.00 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $7,500 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (6:40 PM EST)

4-Disney (8/5)-The Bett Pelling pupil has raced 6 times, finishing on top in 3 starts and came 2nd in the other races. The Always B Miki filly is improving and has more to give. It won't be easy tonight, #5 Blazing Belle is a nice filly who has learned how to win this year. Disney doesn't have as long of a resume but will single figuring her best race against this competition hasn't happened yet.

Race 7 (6:59 PM ET)

2-Vino Louie (5-1)-Drops, gets Dexter Dunn for the 1st time and those 2 factors shouldn't be ignored. Needs a pilot who can put the 6-year-old in a position to win, that box is checked and hopefully won't be over bet.
5-Joe McDude (6-1)-The regular pilot Jamaal Denson returns after the Big Jim 8-year-old was hung the mile. This driver still has lessons to learn. But could still bring an improved effort and should offer a large price in a contest with little form to chew on.
6-Game Of Change (5/2)-This is another who drops and gets a positive driver change in Andrew McCarthy taking the lines. Could have his way with this field with a smooth trip.

Race 8 (7:18 PM EST)

1-Skydiver (7/2)-Raced from the back in the last 2 starts and took a picture, then came 2nd. Gingras has the rail, so should be racing closer to the leaders. This is a logical play but can't see the 7/2 price holding up.
3-For July (4-1)-Started on the rail and landed 7th off the gate. But posted a win by rolling the back half in .55 and capped it off with a .27 last panel. Looks like a main player if minds its manner.
4-Bright Star (5-1)-Gets some post relief after fading down the lane in the 3 races at Lex. Willing to look for improvement from this starting spot plus could be overlooked at the windows.

Race 9 (7:37 PM EST)

1-International Law (6-1)-The Erv Miller pupil has raced well since arriving at the Red Mile except for an interference break 2 back. Does break stride from time to time so starting from the rail is tricky. But is fast enough and the price should be right to use.
2-Duke Of Walner (5/2)-Likes to get on the engine and not look back. That has been the case in the last 2 starts and will respect chances for a 3rd straight win.
7-Swan Explosion (9/2)-Raced near the top of the stack into a lively half, held position but couldn't rally down the lane. The last win was from the 8-hole here and could grind its way around at a healthy price.

$1.00 Early Pick 4

4/2,5,6/1,3,4/1,2,7
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-08-2024, 07:23 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #7

#12 Oscar Joy	Think he'll get a decent setup today with a handful of pace players drawn inside of him, and he might still have a bit of room to improve with just the three career starts under his belt. Lots to like.
#2 Red Pill	The talent is clearly there for him to be competitive with this group, but he's drawn as part of the inside pace and could have a tough day ahead of him. Not impossible, but prefer someone from a a bit farther back.
#5 Disko Tribute	He is quick enough to sit right up on the speed, and he also has a little ability to relax and press the pace. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him poke his head in front at some point, but I think he might still be too close to a solid pace to hold late.
Race Summary	Oscar Joy is a borderline aggressive single for me in a spot like this where a few forward players should ensure an honest tempo, and they account for most of the other logical players. Hoping that race shape materializes for 'Joy's late run. #3 Dos Passos and #11 Irish Royalty underneath/on the deeper plays?

Del Mar - Race #9

#7 Tiz Happy	He was pretty sharp in the turf sprint score at first asking, and I'm willing to draw a line through the aggressive try on the main track in Grade III company last time out. I'm a little worried that this one might set up for someone running a bit later than this guy, but he's pretty compelling if you give him some room to build off the graduation run while stretching out back on the turf.
#10 Mischief River	He finished well ahead of the top choice in the Best Pal when that guy tailed off to last in a small field, and this one moves to the turf with a versatile pedigree in a spot that honestly doesn't feel that deep.
#1 Artislas	He ran on well to win at first asking going short, and he might find a cozy spot tucked in just behind the splits while getting around two turns. One of many to consider.
Race Summary	Not sure this is the deepest renewal of this race we're ever going to see, and Tiz Happy has a lot of interesting upside while getting back on the turf where he posted a nice debut win.

Del Mar - Race #11

#1 Andiamo Ragazza	I'd be more than happy to end up here at something shorter than the 8/1 ML price as she brings her 2-for-2 turf record with her for this first two-turn try. She might wind up in a great spot watching everything unfold from the fence. Strong lean to close the season.
#3 Rugelach	She's one of the logical players while running off the claim, as she brings some pace in a spot without a ton of serious front-end speed. She's always a bit of a question mark late, though, so I wouldn't be too thrilled to be here at a boring kind of number on the board.
#11 Special Flower	She didn't debut until early in her 5-year-old season in a score at 8/5 at Santa Anita, and she just now comes back six months later for this second lifetime try. She obviously has some issues, but there is also clearly some talent here. Inclined to take her seriously when she shows up.
Race Summary	Andiamo Ragazza moves into open company with some pretty appealing turf form and a race flow that might leave her in a really great spot behind a few quicker players early.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-08-2024, 07:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
PURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 6	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta
Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $14,600 • Post: 3:35P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. TAZ MARKING is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TAZ MARKING: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start aft er a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GEEBEESBIGBOY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	TAZ MARKING	5/2	5/2
1	GEEBEESBIGBOY	8/1	9/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	SHUG'S ROCKET	9	7/2	Front-runner	55	51	38.0	37.2	27.7
4	TAZ MARKING	4	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	61	61	55.7	50.6	48.1
1	GEEBEESBIGBOY	1	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	59	50	44.5	45.0	40.0
3	SHE MYSTERIOUS	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	50	47	37.0	38.2	29.7
7	SEA OF INDY	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	48	54.3	29.4	17.4
6	GIMME MONEY	6	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	36	45.8	26.3	16.3
2	LIKA DAGGER	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	39.4	22.1	5.1
8	WATTS	8	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	48	48	30.0	31.4	20.4
5	LITTLE ROGUE	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	21.1	12.4	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-08-2024, 07:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows
PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 11	Win / Place / Show / Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Minimum) / Daily Double
Claiming $30,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $26,724 • Post: 8:15P
FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $20,000 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * S C SKYLARS EMPIRE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highes t average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HARD SPIRITS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SHANNON K: Horse has run a Good R ace within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NATUSIA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	S C SKYLARS EMPIRE	3/1	5/1
1	HARD SPIRITS	6/1	6/1
3	SHANNON K	4/1	7/1
6	NATUSIA	2/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	NEW YEAR'S BELLE	4	8/1	Front-runner	42	44	60.7	38.7	28.2
2	S C SKYLARS EMPIRE	2	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	68	62	46.2	57.0	51.5
3	SHANNON K	3	4/1	Stalker	63	57	61.0	48.7	42.7
5	MORNINGNOONANDNITE	5	7/2	Stalker	59	58	42.6	48.4	41.4
6	NATUSIA	6	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	59	40.2	53.6	46.1
1	HARD SPIRITS	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	64	40.2	50.0	45.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-08-2024, 07:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Allowance - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 77

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 FOOSES FLYER 2/1
# 3 MESSANGER 4/1
# 2 HARLIE MO 5/2

I have to support FOOSES FLYER here. Should keep the strong string of finishes intact this time out. Prominent in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this field. With a sound 79 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. MESSANGER - This gelding has posted some nice finishing positions in his last few efforts. Is hard not to examine given the company run in lately. HARLIE MO - Looks solid against this group of horses in this race and should be one of the leaders. Could provide positive dividends based on competitive recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 72.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-08-2024, 07:25 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #3 - Post: 2:08pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $29,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#2 LALOBA FEROZ (ML=8/1)
#7 LINNY KATE (ML=2/1)

LALOBA FEROZ - Looking at today's class figure, this racer is up against an easier field than last time out at Gulfstream Park. Ran against the males in her last race on Aug 11th. A definite class advantage goes to this horse. What that tells me is she will be very competitive in this grass race. LINNY KATE - Running 1 mile on the grass, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This thoroughbred has the tops in the bunch. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this horse has the highest Equibase speed figure for the dist-surf. This mare is in the top spot in (EPS) earnings per start. Take a good look at this one in the saddling ring. Came home fast in the last race at Gulfstream Park. That type of move bodes well for her chances right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 IPANEMA PRINCESS (IRE) (ML=9/5), #1 JUDGE JUDITH (ML=7/2), #4 GREY PRINCESS (ML=6/1),

IPANEMA PRINCESS (IRE) - The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underlay. JUDGE JUDITH - This entrant ran a run-of-the-mill speed figure last out. She shouldn't run better and will probably lose in today's race running that number. This mare just doesn't seem to like the inside post. Her running lines show that she doesn't fare well from there. GREY PRINCESS - A stretch-runner like this one needs an early battle to set things up and she isn't likely to get one this time out. Difficult to put your dough on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as frequently as this participant does. The speed rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a vulnerable contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 LALOBA FEROZ to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-08-2024, 07:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Stakes - 10.0f on the Turf. Purse: $250000 Class Rating: 92

WONDER WHERE S. - FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLIES, FOALED IN CANADA. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $250 EACH WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION AND AN ADDITIONAL $2,500 WHEN MAKING ENTRY. THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED: 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 2% TO FIFTH, 1% TO SIXTH, 1% TO SEVENTH, 1% TO EIGHTH. SCALE WEIGHT 121 LBS. FINAL

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 STORMCAST 3/5
# 7 HURRICANE CLAIR 4/1
# 4 VUCCHELLA 6/1

My pick in this event is STORMCAST. This filly with Husbands in the irons makes her a contender. Looks formidable to be on or close to the lead at the first call. Must be given consideration here if only for the very good Equibase speed fig posted in the last contest. HURRICANE CLAIR - Conditioner boasts strong win numbers at this distance and surface. Could beat this group given the 91 Equibase Speed Figure garnered in her last outing. VUCCHELLA - Had one of the best speed figures of this group in her last contest. Hard to pass on this filly with Hernandez in the irons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-08-2024, 07:26 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Emerald Downs - Race #1 - Post: 1:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#3 BENNY BUCKETS (ML=5/2)
#2 FIRST ENDEAVOR (ML=2/1)

BENNY BUCKETS - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. When a thoroughbred drops at least five lbs (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but its possible this could make the difference. FIRST ENDEAVOR - This gelding is in good form. Ran second on August 31st. Reyes comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last race. Look at this pattern of improvement. 51/53/60 are the last three Equibase speed figs. This animal is utmost in earnings per start. He looks nice in today's race. This gelding's last speed rating is lofty enough to score here, I'll bet on him back again in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 RED MEMORYS (ML=5/2), #5 RALLIFIED (ML=7/2), #1 WISTERNOFF (ML=6/1),

RED MEMORYS - Difficult to take this entrant at the price after the finish position (fourth) in the last event. Most unsatisfactory speed fig last time around the track at Emerald Downs at 1 mile. Don't believe this racer will improve too much in today's event. RALLIFIED - Notched a quite unimpressive speed rating last race out in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race on Aug 31st. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig. WISTERNOFF - This animal hasn't shown very much in the last couple of races.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - FIRST ENDEAVOR - Performance last out was dominant, even though it was only good for a place effort. Was well clear of the 3rd horse. My take on the data says only a slight improvement is needed today to move up one and into the winner's circle.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 BENNY BUCKETS to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip