Monday 9/9/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2024, 08:38 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 9, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

4-Odds On Capitalism (3-1)-Scioto shipper could be tested at this level but has hit the board in 6 of 12 at YR with 2 pictures. Owns 1.52 mark here at 3 and will get George Brennan in the bike. The Virgil Morgan trainee could be sitting on a big try.
5-Hecandancencruise (12-1)-This will be the 3rd start off the bench since being put away in early November. Has won 5 of 20 at Yonkers and has beaten better on this oval. Will swing for a price and assume Joe B will be looking to go gate to wire.
7-Fun At The Beach (7/2)-Drops again after another dull effort. Will use with the anticipation Jordan Stratton will be more aggressive tonight and be in reach of the leaders around the last turn.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST) (10:20 PM EST)

6-Ozone Blue Chip (9/5)-Raced big from post 5 last time versus this kind and went gate to wire in a strong effort. Could follow the same script, and if lands in one of the top 2 spots off the gate it could be picture time again.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

4-Shakespear (6-1)-Usually my play would be to find a way to fade a horse who wins at a very large number. This 6-year-old landed in the pocket after blasting out from post 2. That isn't a regular occurrence and raced like a 4/5 shot not 52-1. Joins the DeVita barn tonight off a claim and Stratton can work a similar trip against the same kind.
5-Gentle Giant (9/5)-The Bako trainee likes to win, and this will be 1st start in his barn. Steps up and could prove itself at this level. Jason Bartlett should be out and rolling, and he posts 30% winners steering for the Bako stable.

Race 12 (10:40 PM EST)

2-JM Mandamin (6-1)-Steps up off a game win and dug in late to seal the deal. Was bet down to 3/2 and should offer a lot more value in this spot. Could be in play off the gate and hopefully will go off near the morning line.
4-Century Heineken (3-1)-Also bumps up after going gate to wire. Does well racing on the point and that same trip could happen tonight. Went off at 1/2 last time, has one won 2 of 8 races at Yonkers and could add to that total tonight.

$2.00 Late Pick 4

4,5,7/6/4,5/2,4
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2024, 08:38 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#6 Beads	She ran pretty well in the local debut last time out but flattened late after making a sharp move, and I wonder if the move back to a sprint spot will make that move more impactful.
#7 Love Restrained	She has been knocking on the door in recent starts here, but she has come up short at 2/5 and 3/5 in her last two tries and figures to take at least a bit of cash again today. Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone who thinks it's graduation day.
#1 Warrior's Treasure	She's not out of the question with some potentially dangerous pace from the fence while making her local debut, but she has given away some ground in the lane in both of her starts.
Race Summary	Tough to separate the top three in here, but Beads might settle in at a mildly playable price on the board. The sprint form on her page hasn't been much, but I think that move from the last one might make her dangerous today if she can repeat it in her second local try.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#6 Phone Eats First	She found the right kind of level when dropping in for a tag last time out, and she makes sense with this group. Her only local start came in her debut, and she might have something better to offer here today while running long.
#3 Starcry	She led but couldn't last for half this price last time around, but she'll go for a new team today on the rise. Logical player, but I'm not that enthusiastic about her at what might be another short kind of price.
#1 Kathlyns Phalanx	She'll probably offer better today than she did when racing long here in the career debut back in June, and her two follow-up starts have been solid enough to think she can fit here for a share.
Race Summary	Phone Eats First will likely take some cash, but I'm hoping Starcry will keep the board even enough to be playable. This is a good spot on class and race flow from a spying spot.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#2 Frozen Four	He didn't have the cleanest go last time out, so there is some room for improvement today at what might be a midrange price on the board. Think he might prove to be a useful claim. Getting short on excuses, but I'm willing to give him one more.
#7 Malibu Knight	Toyed with having him on top in here at a price, but think Frozen Four makes a decent bit more sense. This guy makes his local debut while stretching out after a mild debut run, but he had a trip that day that almost never leads to success, so I'm hoping he'll move forward pretty noticeably today.
#5 Tiz Wicked Strong	He's probably the one to beat after finding the superfecta on the Saratoga turf, and he has some back runs on the Turfway synthetic that bode well for success in his local debut today. Price won't be appealing on a guy who has already had a lot of chances.
Race Summary	Frozen Four and Malibu Knight feel like a decent stand to take against Tiz Wicked Strong, the likely chalk whose form makes him tough but who I'm leery of leaning on too hard at this point in time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2024, 08:38 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#6 DUE WE DARE (6-1)	Acted up in gate, ranged up on leaders but tired, gets class relief.
#3 ZONG’S FAVOR (5-2)	Turf route experience helps, should sit ideal stalking trip with blinks on.
#1 MY PAL SKY (8-1)	Need not be much to contend, barn OK with maiden claiming routers.
Race Summary	DUE WE DARE, restless in the starting gate against better, advanced 4-wide into striking range midway on the turn but flattened out at 7-1/2F. He gets pace to run at and is worth a win and place bet at 6-1 on the morning line. Also play a 6/1,3,5/ALL trifecta.

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#1 BOSTON BLITZ (5-2)	Takes magnified class drop from rail, no excuse in this field in 12th start.
#4 LEXINGTON RIVER (2-1)	Improved form, has shown some tactical speed, returns to main track.
#6 BOOTLEGGER BAY (10-1)	Showed some zip at 5F in first try on dirt, has done the least wrong.
Race Summary	BOSTON BLITZ’S best race should be enough to break his maiden in a field that is a combined 56/0-1-5. He finished third in a pair of long sprints this spring at Evangeline Downs, then was well-bet in three higher-tagged follow-up races, the latest on turf. Bet to win and place and play a 1-ALL exacta.

Louisiana Downs - Race #4

#1 BAD DECISIONS (6-1)	Warrants second look after game, photo-finish setback two starts ago.
#4 CHAOTIC JACK (5-2)	Stormed home while widest to finish between co-favorites at 6-1/2F.
#5 APRIORITYROCKET (4-1)	Has 4/1-2-1 in 5F main-track sprints since May.
Race Summary	BAD DECISIONS returns to Louisiana Downs after he was outrun for $20k on the Evangeline Downs turf. He seeks a return to his 5F race two starts back on the surface switch today. He shook a duel at the quarter pole, then battled the onrushing odds-on favorite to the wire to just miss, earning his top speed figure. Bet to win and place and play a 1-4-5 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2024, 08:39 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs
PURCHASE

Assiniboia Downs - Race 5	ROLLING DOUBLE / .20 PICK 3 (Races 5-6-7) / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR EXACTOR
Claiming $7,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $14,800 • Post: 9:15P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 9, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SAINT PIO: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Hors e has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FAR BEYOND: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FAST TRAFFIC: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	SAINT PIO	2/1	7/2
3	FAR BEYOND	5/2	6/1
6	FAST TRAFFIC	8/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SHOOTIN MONEY	2	10/1	Front-runner	78	65	50.2	62.4	50.4
1	SAINT PIO	1	2/1	Front-runner	86	91	49.2	80.4	74.9
3	FAR BEYOND	3	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	89	82	28.2	84.2	79.7
6	FAST TRAFFIC	6	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	92	84	9.2	73.8	69.8
5	YOLA	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	76	43.8	71.0	63.0
4	VENTI	4	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	87	43.0	72.8	65.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2024, 08:39 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 2	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $16,600 • Post: 1:20P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 9 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. DATTTSAFANCYFOX is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DATTTSAFANCYFOX: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	DATTTSAFANCYFOX	9/5	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	CALENDULA	2	8/1	Front-runner	81	72	61.2	70.8	65.3
4	LA CUMPARSITA	4	5/2	Stalker	77	64	58.2	66.0	58.5
7	ROWDY DAISY	7	5/1	Stalker	72	73	57.6	66.6	57.6
5	DATTTSAFANCYFOX	5	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	87	82	77.6	75.8	72.8
3	CONSTITUTIONALIST	3	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	83	74	74.6	60.4	53.4
1	RAINBOW SHIP	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	71	72.6	50.2	37.7
6	QUARANTINA	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	73	32.6	58.4	48.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2024, 08:40 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $5000 Class Rating: 89

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR OKLAHOMA-BRED TWO-YEAR-OLDS WHICH WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THESE TRIALS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. FINALISTS MUST PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL NEGATIVE HAIR TEST PRIOR TO ENTERING IN THE FINAL.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 HERCULEZ 10/1
# 4 RELENTLESS PURRSUIT 5/2
# 5 CHICKN HOCK 6/1

HERCULEZ has a very good shot to take this race especially at 10/1. Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved quickly to the front end recently. Could best this group of horses based on the speed rating - 75 - of his last affair. Looks quite good for the conditions of this race today, showing solid numbers in short races as of late. RELENTLESS PURRSUIT - Shows evidence of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 75 speed figure which is one of the top in this group of animals. With a respectable 92 speed figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. CHICKN HOCK - Crawford and Ramos have won 16 percent of their races giving this animal a solid chance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2024, 08:40 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #6 - Post: 6:06pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,498 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#4 KID BIZ (ML=8/1)

KID BIZ - The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Martinez. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Trainer, Martinez, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BEAUTIFLY TROUBL'D (ML=8/5), #2 CUPIDS SWEETY (ML=2/1), #3 SWEET STROLL (ML=3/1),

BEAUTIFLY TROUBL'D - You should normally gamble against chalk that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last few weeks. CUPIDS SWEETY - Should be difficult for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the likely underpriced equines list. SWEET STROLL - In the last race this vulnerable equine finished fourth. Doesn't look good for her chances today. Speed ratings tell a narrative of dropping form. This filly garnered a speed rating in her last contest which likely isn't good enough in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 KID BIZ on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2024, 08:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 80

IND - R5 - FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. IF THIS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 INDOCUMENTADO 7/2
# 8 J'S NAUGHTY BOY 6/1
# 6 JAILHOUSE JUSTICE 8/5

INDOCUMENTADO is my choice. Shows reliable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of animals. I like Padronbarcenas on this gelding to give him a competitive chance to hit the wire first. Must be considered based on the strong Equibase Speed Fig put up in the last contest. J'S NAUGHTY BOY - He has been racing solidly recently while recording solid speed figures. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Romero should have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest. JAILHOUSE JUSTICE - Recorded a solid Equibase speed fig last time out. Has been consistently running well recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2024, 08:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:50pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#6 Y'ZIN UP (ML=4/1)
#7 TRUST FUND ROBBER (ML=15/1)

Y'ZIN UP - Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a good outing last out within the last 30 days. Rounding his way back into form. Each of his finish positions is getting better in his recent starts. Closed a ton of ground in that last effort at 7 furlongs. Wouldn't be astonished to see him win today. TRUST FUND ROBBER - My experienced judgement tells me to watch out for this racer in this event

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 PERFECT MOON (ML=6/5), #5 THAT MAGIC MOMENT (ML=5/1), #2 NICO LUCKY (ML=8/1),

PERFECT MOON - This runner has been a disappointment to the horseplayers as the favorite time and time again. THAT MAGIC MOMENT - Never really did much at all last race out on Jul 18th. Hard to wager on in today's event. NICO LUCKY - When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to register a much better speed figure than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt route.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - Y'ZIN UP - Betting the horse with the best last race speed figure is a good angle. None higher than this gelding's last one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 Y'ZIN UP on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None