10-22-11

[Mr. IWS]

Big 10 Report - Week 8
By asawins

Michigan State (+8.5) vs. Wisconsin

MSU: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan, W 28-14
WISC: 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Indiana, W 59-7

We're just about halfway through the College Football season and right now it's Wisconsin and Michigan State that look like the two favorites to represent its respective divisions in the inaugural Big Ten Title game. The Badgers have not had much luck visiting East Lansing in recent history, including their only regular season loss last season. ESPN's GameDay crew will be on hand, adding even more excitement at Spartan Stadium for this Big Ten night game.

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We'll all find out on Saturday when Wisconsin's offense (8th in total offense at 523 YPG and 1st in scoring offense at 50.2 PPG) meets Michigan State's defense (1st in total defense at 186 YPG allowed and 4th in scoring defense at 10.8 PPG allowed). MSU has allowed eight offensive touchdowns all season long. Wisconsin averages 6.7 offensive touchdowns per game. The Spartans held Wisconsin to its lowest point total in Big Ten play a season ago (24 points). However, it was the first conference game for the Badgers and they averaged 48.2 PPG after that loss.

The Badgers' stop-unit is also performing at an extremely high level. It ranks 7th in total defense and 3rd in points allowed. Although this will be Wisconsin's first true road game of the season and other than a home win over #11 Nebraska, the Badgers have mostly beaten up on sub-par talent.

Michigan State is off of a convincing victory against archrival Michigan last week. The Spartans held dangerous Michigan QB Robinson to just 9-of-24 passing for 123 yards (1 TD and 1 INT) and just 42 rush yards. MSU will try to avoid a "hangover" and do the same to Wisconsin QB Wilson (completing 74.2% with 14 TD and just 1 INT this season).

Something to consider: Wisconsin is 13-1 ATS in its past 14 games overall and has covered 8 straight Big Ten games in that span. Michigan State is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog.

Purdue (+6) vs. Illinois

PU: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS - Last week: at Penn State, L 18-23
ILL: 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS - Last week: vs. Ohio State, L 7-17

Both teams are off of a loss and need a win here. Purdue needs a win to salvage any hopes at a Bowl game, while Illinois needs this win to keep pace with Wisconsin and Penn State in the Big Ten Leaders division. The Illini dominated this meeting last season, holding Purdue to just 205 yards and 9 first downs in the 44-10 win. However, they haven't won in West Lafayette since 2001, dropping three straight by an average of 26 points per game.

Despite the loss, Purdue had a promising performance on the road against Penn State last week. The Boilers final drive ended in an interception (their third of the game) and they lost by five points on the road. Purdue put up 162 rush yards (4.9 YPC) on a PSU defense that had been surrendering just 91.2 rush yards through its first six games. The Boilers will look for a similar performance against this Illinois defense that allowed 211 rush yards to Ohio State a week ago.

Illinois was yielding just 79 rush yards per game before last week. Ohio State only completed one pass (!) against this Illini defense and still won. Illinois' offense was sluggish the entire game and managed just 285 yards and 7 points while turning the ball over three times in the process. Sophomore QB Scheelhaase had his worst performance of the season with just 169 pass yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while the Illini rushed for just 116 yards on 3.3 YPC (had been averaging 226 YPG).

Something to consider: Illinois was 4-1 SU & ATS after a loss last season. But this will be the first time that Illinois is a Big Ten road favorite since October of 2009 and the Illini are just 2-7 ATS their previous nine as a conference road chalk.

Northwestern (+4) vs. Penn State

NW: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS - Last week: at Iowa, L 31-41
PSU: 6-1 SU, 1-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Purdue, W 23-18

Penn State has somehow managed to win six of seven games this season without solid quarterback play. QB's McGloin and Bolden have combined for just 51% completions with six touchdowns and six interceptions. It's the defensive unit that's holding this team together as it ranks 6th nationally in total defense and scoring defense (also has 17 forced turnovers - 10th nationally). Still, the Nittany Lions are playing with fire. They've failed to cover five of six games this season and four of their six wins are by 10 points or less.

If Penn State's dormant offense (78th total offense and 96th in scoring offense) is ever going to wake up, it will have a good chance of doing so against Northwestern. The Wildcats defense ranks near the bottom of every major defensive category. They allow 433 yards per game (101st) and 30 points per game (88th). In three Big Ten games alone, Northwestern has allowed 40 points per game.

For Northwestern, it's now desperation time. A team that was considered a threat to compete in the Legends division has now lost four straight and really can't afford another loss if it wants any shot at a Bowl game this season. Northwestern arguably outplayed the Hawkeyes in the 10-point loss last week.

The Wildcats gained 495 yards and 29 first downs and had +17 minutes time of possession against Iowa. They even converted 16-of-22 (73%) of their 3rd down conversions. Iowa returned an interception 98 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter and that was at least a 10 and maybe 14 point swing that Northwestern couldn't overcome.

Something to consider: Penn State scored 35 unanswered points to win last year's meeting, 35-21. PSU has now won & covered three straight in this series (average score of 34-14).

Minnesota (+25) vs. Nebraska

MINN: 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS - Last week: BYE
NEB: 5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS - Last week: BYE

Minnesota had a bye last week after surrendering 103 points in back-to-back Big Ten losses to open conference play. This one could get ugly for Minnesota as the Gophers are ranked near the bottom in every major offensive and defensive category. They rank 110th in total offense, 109th in scoring offense, 93rd in total defense, and 109th in scoring defense.

Nebraska also had a week off after its huge comeback win over Ohio State. The Huskers scored 28 unanswered points to win by seven over the visiting Buckeyes. Nebraska QB Martinez has seen his share of struggles through the air (54% with 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions), but the Huskers are churning out 247 rush yards per game - good for 11th nationally. Expect a lot of rush attempts against this feeble Gophers defense.

Minnesota QB Gray should be back and healthy after missing time with a toe injury, and his athletic ability should help the Gophers this week. He may see a little less pressure coming from the Nebraska defense as Huskers star DT Jared Crick was ruled out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. That's a big blow to a defense that has underachieved thus far, but don't expect to see much of a dropoff against the Gophers on Saturday.

Something to consider: This is only the seventh time in the past 12 years that a Big Ten team has been a 25+ point favorite in a conference road game (1-4 ATS).

Iowa (-23) vs. Indiana

IOWA: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Northwestern, W 41-31
IND: 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS - Last week: at Wisconsin, L 7-59

Indiana nearly walked away with an upset win over the Hawkeyes last season, but standout WR Belcher dropped the game-winning touchdown with 28 seconds remaining and left the Hoosiers with a 13-18 loss. They've now dropped three straight to the Hawkeyes by an average score of 35-15.

Although Indiana didn't lose by 63 points this year against Wisconsin, it didn't exactly walk away with much confidence after a 52 point loss at the hands of the Badgers. Wisconsin has made a lot of teams look bad, but outside of a 62-yard touchdown run, the Hoosiers looked completely helpless. This Indiana defense now ranks 105th in yards allowed, 117th in rush yards allowed, and 95th in points allowed.

A week after failing to score a touchdown against Penn State, Iowa scored five against Northwestern in a 10-point win. RB Coker finally had a breakout game with 124 rush yards and two scores. There are still some concerns on defense as this unit is allowing north of 400 yards per game and 29 points per game to BCS conference foes this season. With Indiana this week and Minnesota next week, Iowa has a chance to gain some momentum if it can take care of business against below average Big Ten opponents.

Something to consider: Iowa is 1-7 ATS and just 3-4 straight up as a 15-point or more favorite.

Michigan - BYE

MICH: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: at Michigan State, L 14-28

After a +25.5 margin of victory through a 6-0 start, Michigan came crashing down last week against archrival Michigan State. The Wolverines offense managed just 250 yards and 14 points while QB Robinson looked human with just 165 total yards (had been averaging 308 YPG). Up next the Wolverines have a winnable game against Purdue before a grueling four-game finish: at Iowa, at Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State.

Ohio State - BYE

OSU: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS - Last week: at Illinois, W 17-7

Ohio State needed just one completed pass to beat the Illini last weekend. Proving you can still win playing old fashion football: a ground-and-pound running attack and suffocating defense. The run game was fueled by the return of previously suspended RB Herron, who scampered for 114 yards and a score. It's hard to imagine that Ohio State can continue this recipe for the rest of the season, but it was a nice way to head into the bye week. They'll need an extra week to prepare for a home-meeting with Wisconsin - just a year after Wisconsin upset then #1 OSU in Madison

[Mr. IWS]

NCAAF Week 8

Saturday's best games

Illinois lost first game last week, getting outrushed 211-116; they're -6 in turnovers in Big Dozen games (2-1) with wins by 3-21 points. Purdue is 1-1 in league play, running ball for 379 yards since getting crushed 38-10 by Notre Dame three weeks ago- they're 5-7-1 in last 13 games as home dogs. Illini is 1-4 in last five games as road favorites. Favorites are 5-3 in Big Dozen games when spread is single digits. Four of Illinois' six lined games stayed under the total.

Underdog covered five of last six Cincinnati-South Florida games, with Bearcats winning four of last five- they won 34-17/38-33 in last couple visits here. Cincinnati won its last four games, allowing 11 ppg, but none of victims are any good- they're 0-5 as road underdogs under Jones. USF scored 17-10 points in losing last two games, both on road- they're 3-5 as home favorites under Holtz. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Big East conference games with single digit spread.

Clemson is 7-0, covering their last five games; they're 4-0 as favorites in Death Valley this year, 10-5 overall under Swinney. Tigers won five of last seven games vs North Carolina, with faves 6-3 vs spread in series; Tar Heels lost three of last four visits here, this is their first visit since '06. Carolina is 5-2 but 1-2 in ACC, allowing 35-30 points in its losses; they're 6-3 in last nine games as road underdogs. Home favorites are 5-6 vs spread in ACC games.

Cowboys had big win at Texas this week; they've covered nine games in row as road favorites, but they've also allowed 23+ points in each of last four games. Missouri is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road- they've played three stiffs at home; Tigers are 2-0 as underdogs this year, 6-7 as home dogs the last decade. Underdogs are 4-3 SU in last seven OSU-Mizzou games, as five of seven games were decided by 7 or less points. Cowboys are an amazing +13 in turnovers over last four games, with 17 takeaways.

Cal allowed 31-43-30 points in losing last three games, outscored 49-12 in second half; they're playing home games in San Francisco this year, as their stadium in Berkeley is being refurbished- they've covered 14 of 17 as a home favorite (1-0 so far this year). Utah (+3) beat Bears 37-27 in Poinsettia Bowl in '09; this is teams' first meeting as Pac-12 rivals. Utes would be 3-0 as road dogs this year, if not for blocked FG/TD by USC on last play of that game. Pac-12 home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in games where spread is less than 20.

Kansas State won last four Saturdays as an underdog, now are favored in rivalry game at Lawrence, where they won 59-7 (-3) LY, their first win in last four visits, and just second cover in last 13 tries as road favorites. Kansas is horrible, allowing 57 ppg during 4-game losing streak; even in their last win, they gave up 42 points. Jayhawks are 3-8 in last 11 games as a home underdog, 1-1 this year. Big 12 double digit favorites are 2-4 so far this season.

Oregon State won five of last seven games vs Washington State; Coogs covered once in last four games as series favorite. Both teams are 1-2 in Pac-12 games; OSU is allowing 29.7 ppg in league games, WSU 33 ppg. Road teams are 6-4 vs spread in Pac-12 games with single digit spread, but this game is in Seattle, but I guess Wazzu is still home side. Last three Beaver games went over total; last three Coog games stayed under. Oregon State was outscored 59-31 in second half of last three games.

Penn State won its last four games vs Northwestern, last three by 14-21-26 points; they won four of last five visits here, but only one of the four was by more than 5 points, as dogs covered four of the five games. Lions won last five games but covered only one of the five, with three wins by 6 or less points- they're 9-3 in last twelve games as road favorites, 0-2 this year. Wildcats are 12-8 in last 20 games as a home underdog. In LY's game, Northwestern (+6.5) led 21-0, wound up losing 35-21.

Notre Dame (+4.5) beat USC 20-16 LY, its first win in last nine tries vs Trojans; USC won its last four visits here-- underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games played here. Irish won last four games, scoring 35.8 ppg; they ran ball for 287-266 yards last two weeks. ND is 2-1 as home favorite this year, but since '03, they're 14-26-2. Over last decade, USC is 6-3 as road underdogs. Pac-10 non-conference road underdogs are 3-7 vs spread so far this season.

Southern Miss won 28-7/28-12 in its two C-USA meetings with SMU, but teams haven't met since '08; Eagles are 10-8 as home favorites under Fedora, 1-1 this year. SMU is 16-12-1 in last 29 games as road dog; they won at TCU three weeks ago. C-USA home favoritea are 4-7 vs spread in conference play. Mustangs won last five games despite a -7 turnover ratio in those games- they scored 42-40-38 points last three games, but Southern Miss scored 30-48-63 in winning its last three games.

Stanford won five of last six games vs Washington, winning last three by combined score of 110-42; favorites covered Huskies' last three visits to the Farm. Cardinal won/covered all six games, with 45-19 win vs UCLA closest game they've played. 5-1 Washington's only loss this year was 51-38 (+17) at Nebraska, so they'll compete here; they've covered last five games, are 4-2 in last six games as road dog. Pac-10 home favorites of 15+ points are 4-1 vs spread this season.

LSU has three key guys suspended here, Auburn is starting different QB so lot of issues on both sides. Home favorites are 8-2 vs spread in SEC games this year; SEC favorites of 14+ points are 7-1 this year. Auburn lost last five visits here, going 2-3 vs spread- they had 440 rushing yards in 24-17 (-5.5) home win vs LSU LY. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. LSU covered four of last five games, winning its last four games by 26+ points, but Mathieu being out is big loss.

Home side won last six Wisconsin-Michigan State games, as underdogs covered four of last five series games, with three of last four decided by 8 or less points. Badgers lost last three visits here by 10-1-35 points; the average total in last four series games played here, 58.5. Spartans beat Ohio State/Michigan last two games, which doesn't happen much; they are just 2-5-2 in last nine games as home dog. Wisconsin is 8-6-1 as road favorite under Bielema; this is their first true road game this year. Single digit favorites are 4-2 in Big Dozen games so far this year.

[Mr. IWS]

College football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 8
By Adam Thompson

West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange (+13.5, 58)

Why West Virginia will cover: West Virginia averages 380 yards through the air, while Syracuse ranks 114th in pass defense. The team is 3-1 ATS in its last four, while SU is 1-3.

Why Syracuse will cover: The defense has been inconsistent, but will finally get healthy for the first time this week. The offense hasn’t been great, but finds ways to score.

Points: The over has hit in the Mountaineers’ last five games and is 3-1 in the Orange’s last four.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Missouri Tigers (+6.5, 68.5)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU is No. 2 in scoring (49.2 ppg) and in passing (396 ypg), while slowing the pass is Mizzou’s biggest weakness. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 overall.

Why Missouri will cover: Missouri is 0-3 on the road, but 3-0 at home, and is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home.

Points: The over is 4-1 in Missouri’s last five and 2-1-1 in OSU’s last four. Both have the offenses to put up big numbers.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigers (-10, 57.5)

Why North Carolina will cover: The Heels have been successful thanks to a defense ranked 24th in points allowed. The offense does just enough.

Why Clemson will cover: Clemson is 6-1 ATS, including 5-0 in its last five. The offense ranks in the top 30 in every category.

Points: The over is 6-2 in Clemson’s last eight, but the under is 9-2 in its last 11 ACC games.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers (+4, 47)

Why Illinois will cover: Illinois has shut down the opposition, allowing just 17.7 ppg (17th), while an offense that averages 210 ypg on the ground wears down defenses.

Why Purdue will cover: Purdue stays in games by running the ball effectively (24th) while slowing opponents. Just one foe has scored more than 24 points.

Points: Purdue is 2-0-2 with the over in its last four, and the over is 7-1 in Illinois’ last eight in the Big Ten. Both teams have been led by their defenses, though.

Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks (+10.5, 62.5)

Why Kansas State will cover: KU’s defense ranks worst in the nation in points allowed (49 ppg). K-State’s rushing attack should eventually wear down the Jayhawks, just as Oklahoma did last week. KSU is 5-0 ATS in its last five.

Why Kansas will cover: KU showed heart against a powerful Sooners squad, and has an offense – averaging more than 200 yards passing and rushing per game – to never be out of a game.

Points: The over has been big for both teams all season.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi Rebels (+16, 56)

Why Arkansas will cover: Arkansas averages 337 ypg through the air, and Ole Miss hasn’t been able to score on anyone of note. The team is 4-2 ATS.

Why Mississippi will cover: Ole Miss has been decent against the pass, and Arkansas has struggled against the run (93rd). If the Rebels can get an early lead, we could be in for a surprise.

Points: The over is 3-1 for the Razorbacks’ last four and has hit in the Rebels’ last two.

Boston College Eagles at Virginia Tech Hokies (-21, 43.5)

Why Boston College will cover: With three losses by single digits, the Eagles aren’t has terrible as their 1-5 record suggests. VT has been erratic, especially offensively.

Why Virginia Tech will cover: Va. Tech is 14th in scoring defense and eighth in rushing defense, and B.C. is struggling to score as it is. The Hokies were 0-5 ATS in their last five before blowing out Wake Forest, so maybe it’s the start of a new trend.

Points: The under is 1-5 in B.C. games, and hit four straight for VT games before the last two weeks (both over).

Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes (+32, 66.5)

Why Oregon will cover: Oregon averages 315 yards rushing (fifth) and nearly 49 ppg (third). Colorado may not know what hit it by halftime.

Why Colorado will cover: The Buffs have struggled, but that’s a big spread, especially for a team that plays games which hit the under more often than not. And they’re 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 at home. The availability of Oregon RB LaMichael James and QB Darron Thomas is in question.

Points: How powerful Oregon’s offense will be depends on the health of its stars.

Texas A&M Aggies at Iowa State Cyclones (+20, 65.5)

Why Texas A&M will cover: Texas A&M has a multifaceted offense that ranks among the nation’s best in every category. Iowa State can’t stop the run or pass. Do the math.

Why Iowa State will cover: Texas A&M has allowed 45 and 55 points in its last two games, opening up the possibility a weakness has been exposed.

Points: The over has hit in the last three games for both teams.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes (-2.5, 62)

Why Georgia Tech will cover: The Jackets are in a bit of a slump, but still 4-2-1 ATS and rank No. 2 in rush yards (348 ypg). Miami is 94th in rush yards allowed.

Why Miami will cover: Georgia Tech was 4-0-1 ATS early, but 0-2 recently. Meanwhile, Miami was 1-3 ATS to start but 2-0 since. The Canes are in full form after the early season suspensions.

Points: The under is a big hit in Miami home games the last several years, is 6-2 in GT’s last eight in the ACC and is 6-2 in these teams’ last eight meetings.

Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-22.5, 46.5)

Why Auburn will cover: LSU will be without star CB Tyrann Mathieu, RB Spencer Ware, and DB Tharold Simon, who were suspended one game for violating the team’s drug policy. Auburn is improving by leaps and bounds every week, thanks mostly to a defense that held Florida to six points last week.

Why LSU will cover: The Tigers are steamrolling everyone, with a defense that ranks in the top 15 in every major category and an offense that pounds opponents to a pulp. They are very deep and can absorb the hit from those suspensions. Auburn’s offense, by the way, is giving a sophomore QB his first career start.

Points: The under is 4-0 in Auburn’s last four, and nobody goes off on LSU’s defense.

Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos (-30.5, 64.5)

Why Air Force will cover: The Falcons can gash opponents not ready for their style (336 ypg, third). That’s a big spread against a team that will drain the clock.

Why Boise State will cover: Boise State can score at will on anybody and Air Force has one of the nation’s worst defenses. Plus, the Broncos are 24th against the run.

Points: The under is 7-2 in BSU’s last nine in conference. But every AFA game has hit the over, and Boise State can score as quickly as anybody.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (24.5, 56.5)

Why Nebraska will cover: While neither team has a defense worth worrying about, Nebraska at least has an offense to pour on the points (22nd in scoring). Minnesota, with a 109th-ranked offense, is 2-4 ATS.

Why Minnesota will cover: The Huskers are only 1-5 ATS. The Gophers have shown the ability to run the ball, and Nebraska is 74th at stopping it.

Points: The over has hit in four of NU’s last five games and in the Gophers’ last four.

Marshall Thundering Herd at Houston Cougars (-22, 59.5)

Why Marshall will cover: Despite a 3-4 overall record, Marshall is 5-2 ATS.

Why Houston will cover: The Cougars throw it more than anyone else, No. 1 in pass yards (435.5) and No. 4 in points (47.0). The Herd is No. 73 in passing defense and its offense ranks 99th or worse in everything.

Points: The under is 6-1 in Herd games, but is 2-4 for Houston.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats (4, 47.5)

Why Penn State will cover: The Lions are finding ways to win with a defense ranking sixth overall and seventh against the pass. The Wildcats are swooning, losers of four straight.

Why Northwestern will cover: Penn State may win, but it is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine.

Points: The under is 6-0-1 in PSU games, but the over has hit in Northwestern’s last three.

Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-28.5, 45.5)

Why Tennessee will cover: That can seem like an awfully high spread against a competent Vols squad, especially one that has a half-decent defense and an offense that averages 294 yards through the air.

Why Alabama will cover: The Tide is 7-1 ATS, the lone loss being a 47-point spread to North Texas (W, 41-0). Bama will score 30, but can Tennessee score at all against the No. 1 defense?

Points: Bama had held four of its seven opponents to seven points or fewer, and nobody has more than 14. The Tide may have to practically cover it alone.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners (-28.5, 69.5)

Why Texas Tech will cover: That’s an awfully big spread for a team averaging 43.8 points (ninth) and 372 yards passing (sixth). Tech is 4-2 ATS.

Why Oklahoma will cover: TTU has no shot at stopping OU’s offense, but the Sooners also have a defense that allows just 15.8 ppg.

Points: The over hit on Tech’s last five games and three of OU’s last four. We’ll see some scoring here.

Washington Huskies at Stanford Cardinal (-20.5, 61)

Why Washington will cover: This is a big statement game for the Huskies, and they have the offense to make it interesting. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five.

Why Stanford will cover: The Cardinal are the most reliable around, a perfect 6-0 ATS. Stanford has the No. 5 scoring offense and No. 5 scoring defense. It is ranked 14th in passing, while Washington is 116th in pass defense.

Points: Despite two high-octane offenses, the under has been hitting for both teams so far.

Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans (8, 47.5)

Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers are 5-0-1 ATS because their offense is No. 1 in scoring (50.7 ppg) and the defense is No. 3 (9.7). That’s a tough combo to tackle.

Why Michigan State will cover: If anyone can slow UW’s offensive juggernaut, it may be MSU, which ranks No. 3 in run defense (67 ypg) and No. 1 against the pass (119). The offense has enough juice at least stay close.

Points: The under is 5-1 for MSU games, but 2-4 for UW. And the over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings

[Mr. IWS]

Bumpy road to Bedlam

For now don't circle December 3 on your calendar.

Oklahoma State maintained their perfect record last week, but looked off rhythm in their 38-26 win over Texas. Head Coach Mike Gundy tried to downplay all the hype.

“I think there are three teams in the country that when I watch them statistically, and the little bit that I've seen of them, are really, really good football teams,” Gundy told reporters. “And then I think there are six or eight other teams that could win on any given field on any given day if they took care of the football and didn't give up big plays."

The three teams he is referring to are probably LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma, as Gundy is fully aware that the upcoming three game stretch will be the toughest of the season. This week it’s Missouri, who is 3-3 but that record is deceptive of how well the Tigers have been playing.

Among those defeats was an OT road game against ranked Arizona State, a 10-point loss to Oklahoma which is beating teams by an average of 29.5 points, and a 24-17 result with Kansas State that could have gone either way.

Even if Oklahoma State covers the 6.5 points this Saturday, they have Baylor and Kansas State next, making that showdown against Oklahoma seem light years away.

Unfashionable

Big 12 QBs are producing ridiculous passing statistics this season with Landry Jones, Seth Doege, Brandon Weeden, and Robert Griffin, all within the Top 10 in passing yards.

Which leads us to Kansas State's Collin Klein, who in last year's 39-14 win over Texas, made just four passing attempts. If you are curious only two were completed for a total of nine yards.

In a league known for its passing, Klein and the Kansas State offence has focused primarily on the run. In last week's 75-point shootout with Texas Tech, Klein threw just 18 times compared to Seth Doege's 63, but the low-profile QB did rush for 110 yards and three TDs.

Much of Kansas State's success has been attributed to the defense, and in an interview with ESPN, in which they were discussing his impressive rushing statistics, Klein deflected attention from himself and took on the same stance, “the bottom line is our defense is playing really well”

The bottom line for handicappers is that undefeated Kansas State continues to impress and provide value. The Wildcats have been underdogs for four straight games and, this week against a Kansas team that ranks 120th in yards allowed at 565, they are just 10.5-point favorites.

Tough total

The featured night game has Texas Tech travelling to Oklahoma in what should be an offensive affair. Texas Tech is on a five-game over streak and QB Seth Doege has continued the Air Raid tradition with 2,167 passing yards and 18 TDs.

However is the big spread and previous history an indication that this game could go under?

The Sooners are 28.5-point favorites and held the Red Raiders to just seven points last year. In fact, three of the last four games in this series have resulted in unders. But then again, Landry Jones and Seth Doege do have the ability to turn this into a video game.

We have mentioned that teams would try to slow down the pace, and instead what we found was that Big 12 coaches were taking the more aggressive approach and keeping games at a high pace.

Texas Tech currently leads the NCAA in plays per game at 91, while Oklahoma is fourth at 82. Texas Tech's pace has only increased, averaging 97.3 in their last three.

The total currently sits at 70.5

[Mr. IWS]

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts

Thanks to Nebraska jumping into the Big 10 fray, we having a scheduling glitch where Wisconsin has to travel to Michigan State for the second consecutive year. It didn’t turn out so well for the Badgers last season as their 34-24 loss became their only blemish of the regular season and eliminated all hopes for a national title run.

Saturday’s game will mark Wisconsin’s first trip away from Madison this season, a place where they have steam rolled all their opponents. Only a late surge by 35-point underdog UNLV has kept Wisconsin from covering every game. They'll look to go 7-0 straight up for the first time since 2004.

Michigan State comes off an emotional home win against rival Michigan, but the troubling part about siding with the Spartans this week is reflecting on their struggles at Ohio State (10-7 win) and getting rocked at Notre Dame 31-13. Outside of the Michigan and Ohio State victories, they only have wins against Central Michigan (45-7) and Florida Atlantic (44-0) to go off of. The same can be said for Wisconsin playing at home where their only real quality win was against a questionable Nebraska (48-17) squad.

The difference maker this week compared to last season's match in East Lansing is Badgers quarterback Russell Wilson, a Heisman contender and the Big 10 leader with 1,557 passing yards, 14 TDs and only one interception. His consistent quarterback play is the main variable with Wisconsin being such a large 7 ½-point road favorite.

We also have the emotional factor of Wisconsin getting up big for their first road test while Michigan State has to recapture their intensity from last waeek. Using past Big 10 situational play, the best bet involving this game might be if Wisconsin wins this week and then goes into Columbus next week sky high, but not respecting the Buckeyes, a team who could put it to them under those circumstances.

The Wynn Resort sports book opened Wisconsin minus-7 Sunday afternoon and were bet up to -8½ by Monday morning when most Las Vegas books started posting their lines. The Las Vegas Hilton opened the game -9 and have been bet down with Spartans money to -7½ through Thursday.

Even though the Hilton dropped their line with early Michigan State money, executive director Jay Kornegay knows he’ll need the Spartans to come up big.

“The combination of Wisconsin being a very public team, highly-ranked and simply being just a favorite on a Saturday night national TV game has me knowing what side we’ll need. We’ve seen Top-10 teams covering at about a 76% rate and have been getting killed. It gets even worse when those games are featured late on television,” said Kornegay.

The Top-5 teams alone this season -- the teams every casual bettor loves, knows and bets -- are 26-6 (81%) against the spread.

“We don’t even need to hit 50% on these games to show a little profit,” Kornegay explained. “Because of all the parlay action we get, we can be just below 40% and still do well, but 76%…?”

Kornegay has seen a shift of change from the casual unsophisticated bettor now being expectant of these type of streaks with the favorites to continue.

“I was walking into work Sunday morning, the day after the entire strip avoided Black Saturday with Kansas saving the day, and I overhead one guy cussing out Oklahoma because they cost him an eight-teamer (parlay),“ Kornegay said. “I’m thinking ‘you’ve been hitting these things all season,’ that type of disappointment used to be reserved for just winning a single game. Now people are expecting to win eight just because they have already this season.”

As for the Wisconsin game, Kornegay believes in Michigan State more than just what his book will need Saturday night.

“Wisconsin hasn’t been tested on the road and it’s a big number to lay.”

For whatever it's worth, former Las Vegas television sportscaster and current ESPN national radio host Colin Cowherd loves Michigan State with the points. He also went a little overboard in suggesting that because he is so intelligent with college football (he is) and popular in the Las Vegas market (he is) that every wise guy and sports book follows him (they don't). He also suggested that the line movement on the game had something to do with his choice (it didn't). We do love Cowherd in Las Vegas, but just about every unsophisticated bettor in town has been correct in college football this season.

Here’s a look at some of the other line moves during the week in Las Vegas:

Despite Florida State losing three of its last four games, the school is still very well respected in the power ratings. Its last game against Duke (41-16) was the type of performance that many expected out of them all season. The Wynn opened FSU -15 Sunday night and by Thursday afternoon, the game had moved up to -18 for their home game against a Maryland team in disarray.

Vanderbilt opened up at the Hilton as an 8½-point favorite against Army and has been bet up to -11. Vanderbilt will be going with sophomore QB Jordan Rodgers, the brother of Aaron Rodgers, who will be making his first career start. He's replacing Larry Smith who has been pulled from all six Vanderbilt games this season.

One top-ranked team that doesn’t have a glowing ATS record this season is Oregon at 3-2-1. The Ducks travel to Colorado and have been bet against at the Hilton from -32 down to -30½. Colorado, while never looking worse - almost never, is 2-1 at home ATS. The Buffs will be without RB Rodney Stewart while the status of Oregon’s dynamic duo, LaMichael James (elbow) and Darron Thomas (knee), is still up in the air with mixed reports.

California has been bet against in their 'kinda' home game (AT&T Park in San Francisco) against Utah. The Hilton opened Cal at -3 on Monday morning and it currently sits at -1 ½. The Wynn opened this game as PICK on Sunday night and currently has Cal -2.

Houston opened as a 16-point favorite at the Wynn Sunday evening for its home against Marshall and have been bet all the way to -22. The Hilton opened the game -20 on Monday morning and currently sit at -22½.

Alabama has been one of those teams that have been killing the sports books all season. They’re a top ranked team and they’re 6-1 ATS, much to the sports book’s disdain and bettors delight. The Hilton opened the Tide -28 and the line is currently -30 for their home against Tennessee.

Stanford has been a perfect 6-0 ATS and they face a Washington team that registered almost as many ATS wins at 5-1. The Cardinal opened as 20-point favorites and have been bet up to -20½.

New Mexico State has been finding some support in its long travel to Hawaii for Saturday night’s late game. Hawaii opened as a 23½-point favorite at the Hilton and has been bet against down to -21½. The Aggies have covered three straight games while Hawaii is playing only its third home game. While impressive on the road as an underdog at Louisiana Tech three weeks ago, it lost outright as a 6-point road favorite at San Jose State last Friday night

[Mr. IWS]

College Football Super System
By Robbie Gainous

Last week’s System of the Week qualified a play on the Michigan State Spartans in their game against the Michigan Wolverines and our system won again as the Spartans defeated the Wolverines 28 to 14 as a 1-point favorite. With that win, the system’s record improved to 19-0 both straight up and against the spread.

This week we once again examine college home teams but with a different set of parameters. Last week our system focused on defensive home teams this week our search uncovered a powerful system that plays on home teams that just defeated an unbeaten opponent.

SYSTEM: From Game 6 on, play ON a conference home team off a home favorite SU win against an undefeated opponent vs. an opponent off a SU win. The system has a record of 11-0 ATS covering the spread by 19.4 points per game since 1993.

After knocking off an unbeaten team as a home favorite, teams back at home have used that momentum against opponents who are also coming off a victory. Even though the team they defeated was unbeaten at the time, they were favored against them and expected to win so there is no letdown after that victory. They become terminal velocity where the spread is concerned.

The system has qualified an underdog on two occasions the first time came back in Week 6 of the 1993 season. California was playing host to Washington and they were a 3.5-point home underdog losing the game 23 to 24 but covering the spread.

The second active date where the system qualified an underdog is this week as the system qualifies the Michigan State Spartans +8.5 points against the Wisconsin Badgers. The other nine qualifying contests were all favorites and each one-won and covered the spread. The fact that the system has only had two underdogs does not diminish the power of the system it just increases its ability to qualify quality situations.

Wisconsin leaves Madison for their first true road game of the season having played all but one of their games at home with one coming at a neutral site when they played Northern Illinois at Soldier Field. Saturday’s trip to East Lansing will be the Badgers first true test of the 2011 campaign.

The Badgers schedule has not been a who’s who of top teams having defeated a Nebraska team that does not look nearly as strong as once believed and all the rest considered padding to their non-conference schedule. The same cannot be said for the Spartans having already faced Notre Dame, Ohio State and last week’s victim Michigan.

With all of the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies the Michigan State Spartans plus the points over the Wisconsin Badgers. The Spartans were our Play ON team last week and with that victory, they qualified in this week’s system. PLAY ON: Michigan State Spartans (+)

[Mr. IWS]

Games to Watch - Week 8
By Brian Edwards

Oklahoma State vs. Missouri

As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Oklahoma St. installed as a 6 ½-point favorite with a total of 68 ½. After losing 12 in a row to Texas, Mike Gundy's squad beat Texas for the second straight year last week. Jeremy Smith ran for 140 yards and a pair of touchdowns on just seven carries. Missouri cruised to an easy 52-17 win over Iowa St. as a 17-point home favorite last Saturday. The Tigers are unbeaten at home, going 2-1 ATS against cupcake foes. They have lost three tight road games, taking the cash in two of them. Gary Pinkel's squad lost 37-30 in overtime at Arizona St., 38-28 at Oklahoma and 24-17 at Kansas St. Those three teams have just two combined losses, with both belonging to ASU. During Gundy's tenure, the Cowboys own an incredible 13-3 spread record in 16 games as road favorites. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 6-7 ATS as home 'dogs under Pinkel. OSU has won three of the last four head-to-head meetings against Mizzou both straight up and against the spread, including last year's 33-17 win in Stillwater. The 'over' is 4-2 overall for Missouri, 2-1 in its home games. The 'over' is 3-2-1 overall for OSU, 1-1-1 in its three road assignments.

North Carolina vs. Clemson

Most books were listing Clemson as a 10½-point favorite as of early Wednesday morning. The total was 58 and UNC was plus-320 on the money line (risk $100 to win $320). Dabo Swinney's team rallied from a 35-17 second-half deficit Saturday at Maryland, rallying to win 56-45 as a 9½-point road favorite. Tajh Boyd, who has a 19/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, threw for 270 yards and four TDs and Andre Ellington rushed for 214 yards and a pair of scores. North Carolina is in bounce-back mode following Saturday's 30-24 loss to Miami as a one-point home 'chalk.' The Tar Heels have a 1-1 record both SU and ATS in their two road games, losing 35-28 at Ga. Tech and winning 35-20 at East Carolina. The 'over' is 5-2 overall for Clemson, 4-1 in its home games. The 'under' is 4-3 overall for UNC, 1-1 in its road outings.

Auburn vs. LSU

As of Wednesday morning, most books had LSU favored in the 22-23 range. The total was 46½. Les Miles's team produced another stellar performance last week, winning 38-7 at Tennessee as a 16½-point road favorite. Jarrett Lee threw two TD passes to improve his TD-INT ratio to 10/1. AU bounced back from a loss at Arkansas to beat Florida 17-6 as a three-point home underdog. Clint Moseley relieved the ineffective Barrett Trotter at QB and played well enough to earn his first career start in Baton Rouge. As a home favorite under Miles, LSU has an abysmal 14-24-1 spread record. AU has been a double-digit underdog three times during Gene Chizik's tenure, posting a 1-2 SU record and a 2-1 ATS mark. The Tigers are 3-4 ATS as road 'dogs under Chizik. The 'under' has cashed in four consecutive games for Auburn. Also, the 'under' has cashed at a 9-2 clip in the last 11 head-to-head meetings between these SEC West rivals.

Georgia Tech vs. Miami, Florida

Georgia Tech at Miami - Most books are listing Miami as a three-point favorite with a total of 61½. Al Golden's squad won a 30-24 decision at UNC last week as a one-point road underdog. The Hurricanes raced out to a 27-3 first-half lead in Chapel Hill thanks to three TD passes from Jacory Harris, who has a 12/3 TD-INT ratio this season. UM has won two of its three home games, going 1-2 versus the number. Ga. Tech suffered its first loss of the year in surprising fashion Saturday in Charlottesville, dropping a 24-21 decision at Virginia as a 7½-point road 'chalk.' The Yellow Jackets are 7-3 ATS as road underdogs under fourth-year head coach Paul Johnson. When these ACC adversaries met on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta last year, UM cruised to a 35-10 win as a 2 ½-point road favorite. In South Florida two season ago, the 'Canes won 33-17 as four-point home favorites.

Cincinnati vs. South Florida

Cincinnati at South Florida - Most books have tabbed USF as a three-point favorite with a total of 55. After a 4-0 start, the Bulls have dropped back-to-back road games at Pitt (44-17) and at UConn (16-10). They couldn't overcome four turnovers, including two interceptions from QB B.J. Daniels, who had previously been playing extremely well, as evidenced by nearly 1,800 yards of total offense, an 8/3 TD-INT ratio and four rushing scores. Cincy has won four in a row, going 3-1 ATS, since suffering its only loss at Tennessee. Isaiah Pead rushed for 151 yards and one TD to lead the Bearcats from a 16-7 intermission deficit to a 25-16 home win over Louisville last week. They have won five of the last seven head-to-head meetings against USF, posting a 6-1 spread record.

USC vs. Notre Dame

USC at Notre Dame - Most books are listing Notre Dame as an 8 ½-point favorite with a total of 57. Brian Kelly's team has won four straight games since starting 0-2. The Irish, who had an open date to get ready for this game, ended Southern Cal's eight-game winning streak in this rivalry by capturing a 20-16 win as a 4½-point road underdog last year. Lane Kiffin's team is coming off a 30-9 win at Cal last Thursday thanks to a pair of TD passes from Matt Barkley, who has a 16/4 TD-INT ration for the year. As a road 'dog on under Kiffin, USC has a 2-1 spread record as a road underdog

[Mr. IWS]

Fenimore The Great

Iowa - 23 1/2 -100
Cinn +3 -102
TCU-43 1/2 -107
C Mich + 2 1/2 -102
Utah +1 -105
Oregon St. +3 -101
SMU +3 -103
Stanford - 20 1/2 -107
LSU -21 -103
Wisc -7 -108
Hawaii-21 1/2 -108
Georgia Tech +3 -105

[Mr. IWS]

Vambo Sports

Purdue +3 1/2 -105
Mia Fla ML -134
Mississippi + 15 1/2 -109
Iowa St. +20 1/2 -103
Missouri +7 -110
Colorado +31 -108
Air Force +29 -103
Kansas + 10 1/2 -108
Alab - 29 1/2 -110
Houston - 23 1/2 -107

[Mr. IWS]

SB Professor Original NCAA Picks

Saturday's NCAAF Picks:

12 PM EST
Eastern Michigan +13* (game is 12.5 but the added winning % you get at +13 makes the 1/2 point buy worth the juice risk)

3:30 PM EST
Memphis +13*

7 PM EST
Rice +11* (game is 10.5 just about everywhere but the added winning % you get at +11 makes the 1/2 point buy worth the juice risk)

Rest of Games
North Carolina +10.5
Missouri +7
Kansas +10.5
East Carolina +11.5
Fresno St. +11.5
Army +11
USC +9.5
Michigan St. +7
Colorado St. +10

[Mr. IWS]

Rainman

5* Toledo
5* Miami Florida
3* Temple
3* Arkansas
3* Kansas ST
1* Nevada
1* Alabama

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

St. Louis Cardinals + Texas Rangers UNDER 9.5

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Oklahoma State -6.5 over Missouri

[Mr. IWS]

Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:

Pittsburgh Penguins -150 over New Jersey Devils

[Mr. IWS]

Today's CFL Picks

Montreal at Winnipeg

The Bluebombers look to bounce back from their 24-10 loss at Edmonton last week and build on their 10-2-1 ATS record in their last 13 games following a SU defeat. Winnipeg is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bluebombers favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+1 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 22 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (10/19)

Game 495-496: Montreal at Winnipeg (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 114.565; Winnipeg 117.453 Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 3; 55 Vegas Line: Montreal by 1 1/2; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+1 1/2); Over

Game 497-498: BC at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: BC 119.337; Hamilton 116.056 Dunkel Line: BC by 3 1/2; 51 Vegas Line: BC by 1; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: BC (-1); Under