Tuesday 9/10/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2024, 07:27 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Fort Erie's Prince of Wales Key Bets | Tuesday

September 9, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

A little Tuesday royalty is in store at Fort Erie as the Prince of Wales Stakes – middle jewel in the Canadian Triple Crown – renews for the 89th time. The 11-race card gets underway at 1 pm ET with the $400,000 main event slated for Race 10 (5:35 pm ET).

Races 7-11 comprise a $50,000-guaranteed pick 5 that also includes in the Lake Erie and Rondeau Bay Stakes. Xpressbet and 1/ST BET customers can take advantage of the 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion on that wager.

Trainer Kevin Attard boasts a 15: 8-5-0 record since 2019 with his shippers to Fort Erie, including 8: 5-3-0 as favorites. Those wins include the Prince of Wales in 2021 and 2023. Attard’s got four entrants in the Prince of Wales, namely #1 Airosa (15-1 morning line), #6 Jokestar (8-1), #7 Bedard (10-1) and #9 Pierre (4-1).

On the flipside, Mark Casse shippers to Fort Erie during that span are 8: 0-0-1 since Wonder Gadot won the 2018 Prince of Wales in her follow up to Queen’s Plate success. Casse saddles #5 Midnight Mascot (5-2 favorite) and #10 Essex Serpent (8-1) in search of his fifth Prince of Wales trophy lifetime.

Surface is the key to the 1-3/16 miles Prince of Wales, which is contested on dirt. The Canadian Triple Crown opens on Tapeta in the King’s Plate, moves to dirt at Fort Erie, then finishes on turf back at Woodbine for the Breeders Stakes. If you’re looking for potential pedigree fits, consider #3 Wyoming Bill (sire Curlin gets 21% winners, $1.11 ROI for every $1 bet on Fort Erie dirt); and #9 Pierre (sire Tapiture gets 21% winners, $1.47 ROI for every $1 bet on Fort Erie dirt). Those stats come courtesy the Betmix database.

Pierre was my price key in the King’s Plate at 40-1 odds and ran a very credible fourth in his first stakes bid. He had been racing competitively with elder, open-company allowance foes and should be the one to beat Tuesday in the absence of the top-2 finishers from the King’s Plate.

The play: Win #9 Pierre. Exacta 9-3. Trifecta 9-all-3.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2024, 07:28 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#6 Michaelshatrick	He hasn't shown a lot, but he at least got past a few of them late in that three-back run, and there just isn't any other real finishing form among those with experience. Stays better while cutting back off the route run?
#4 S S Fun and Games	He's probably fast enough early to at least keep the other forward players honest, and I wonder if he might get braver against this cheap group if he can find a chance to poke his head comfortably in front.
#1 Emma at the Gate	He isn't out of the question while turning back with some route pace, but he probably isn't quite quick enough to find the front here without a bit of work, so I think a tricky trip could be in store while trying this level for the first time.
Race Summary	#7 Uncle Arlys and #2 Come About both go first time out in a race with no real standout, so take a look at them on the tote and track ahead of this. Michaelshatrick might be an OK price with at least a little chance to pass horses late.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#2 Palace Revolt	Could see him being ready enough to go at first asking here, and he's the first place I want to look while checking out the debuters in here.
#6 Boujie Betz	She moved forward nicely in her second career start, but she also dipped into claiming company for that run, so she's got at least a little proving to do on class with these. That said, she's fast enough to be in the frame early with the boys and wouldn't be a shock here.
#1 Ridge Warrior	He's another worth checking out ahead of this, and there's nothing wrong with getting Morales up for the debut run, even if the rail is a little bit unappealing.
Race Summary	Palace Revolt is the most intriguing of the first-timers today, so I'll start from there. Assuming Boujie Betz will be fine for a share at this level based on her last, but I wouldn't be thrilled about anything like the 5/2 ML price either way.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#3 Three O One	Don't totally trust him, but he hinted at something better in that last one, so I'll see if he can sustain a similar move today at what should be another solid price. In the mix if he holds that form.
#1 Son of Liberty	He's probably supposed to win this -- he drops back to the level of his good effort here in July, and he has some pace to potentially control the tempo from the inside. Dangerous, but I wonder if the guy drawn all the way outside might apply enough token pressure to keep him honest at an unappealing price?
#9 Traveller	He's capable of something better, but I don't love the way he's heading right now after a somewhat promising first run back from the long break earlier this season.
Race Summary	Three O One doesn't feel totally overmatched here, and I'm hoping he can build on the last effort when finding his best form of the meet by far.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2024, 07:28 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Parx - Race #1

#2 NAMORA (9-2)	Strong play in second start for Ness, alert break needed.
#3 UNION BELLE (3-1)	Also projects ideal stalking trip on class drop for sharp outfit.
#4 MAYDAY MAYHEM (6-1)	Gets needed break from allowance company, reunited with Torres.
Race Summary	NAMORA lunged at the start, spotting the field several lengths, then rallied for second behind the odds-on favorite. She has license to improve in her second start off the Ness claim and offers good value on the class hike. Bet to win and place and play 2-3 and 2-4 exactas.

Parx - Race #2

#4 ANGELIC STORM (9-2)	Romped twice in last four sprints at Parx, can she do it twice in a row?
#3 AKNA (7-2)	Finished in money in 6 of 8 sprints at Parx on a fast track, returns to claim level.
#7 MISS ALEX (5-2)	Rallied for minor awards in 3 of last 4 starts, needs some pace flow.
Race Summary	ANGELIC STORM blew past the pace-setting favorite with an inside run on the turn and ‘eagerly drew away’ to win at this distance. No reason to think she can’t repeat in a field that is a combined 24-for-339. Bet to win and place and play a 3,4/3,4,7/ALL trifecta.

Parx - Race #4

#1 WISHING ONA PRAYER (3-1)	Seeks front end three-peat for high-percentage claim barn.
#4 EXPECT TO BE READY (6-1)	Often in the hunt, gets in light, should benefit from route attempt.
#6 FAIRY DREAMS (2-1)	First or second in 5 of 9 starts at Parx, good fit at this level.
Race Summary	WISHING ONA PRAYER led at every call in her last two starts and can make good use of her speed again on the step up in class. She goes from one good barn to another with a 6-17 Parx record intact. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2024, 07:29 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 2	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4), 20 Cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 59 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 1:29P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SMOKEN CHLOE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SMOKEN CHLOE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	SMOKEN CHLOE	5/2	7/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	GOLDEN SPRING	6	4/1	Front-runner	51	52	67.0	31.6	23.6
1	SMOKEN CHLOE	1	5/2	Stalker	66	62	69.0	59.4	57.4
4	SHES HOT TO TROT	4	3/1	Stalker	46	45	42.8	40.6	33.6
2	MISS SCHILLER	2	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	60	59	36.5	39.9	32.4
7	ALWAY'S ROSIE	7	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	54	47	27.6	32.8	21.3
3	ASHCAR NELLIE	3	10/1	Trailer	48	55	19.9	29.4	21.4
5	SIGNATURE RING	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	48	48	50.0	23.1	11.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2024, 07:29 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Allowance • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 6:07P
IND - R8 - (RAIL AT 36 FEET). FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. REVS RUN is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CRICKENBERGER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THR EE COATS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SI CERTO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at leas t 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. REVS RUN: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse r ace).
2	CRICKENBERGER	7/5	3/1
1	THREE COATS	9/5	6/1
3	SI CERTO	9/2	10/1
6	REVS RUN	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	REVS RUN	6	8/1	Front-runner	77	72	72.1	59.1	50.6
1	THREE COATS	1	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	85	88	59.4	65.9	60.9
2	CRICKENBERGER	2	7/5	Trailer	93	90	65.4	80.2	77.2
3	SI CERTO	3	9/2	Trailer	80	72	62.5	74.0	67.5
7	GIO'S BABY GIRL	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	70	80.2	59.7	52.7
5	CHIMES	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	65	56.8	53.8	42.3
4	JUICY JUSTICE	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	56	53.4	60.2	47.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2024, 07:29 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:34pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#3 LEAN ON E (ML=8/1)
#6 MATTY BO (ML=9/2)
#2 CAPTIVATING CARA (ML=10/1)
#5 SHACKLEFORD COUNTY (ML=2/1)

LEAN ON E - When Ruiz and Shaw team up on horses the ROI has been great at +75. The race may set up nicely for this thoroughbred's late kick and she's probably the best closer in the field. Was in a $7,500 Claiming race at Parx Racing last time around the track. That race had a class figure of 79 and she is moving down in this event. A certain strong challenger. This horse absolutely loves this track. All her wins have been here at Parx Racing. MATTY BO - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier field than last race out at Parx Racing. This filly should be at the fitness peak, this far into her form cycle. Earnings per race is something that I think can be a key handicapping factor. This horse is ranked at the top in this bunch. CAPTIVATING CARA - Her win on April 17th in a $7,500 Claiming race, at 6 furlongs, is a big plus for this mare. Last time around the track, finished ninth on a track listed as good at Parx Racing. Will most certainly do better right here. SHACKLEFORD COUNTY - Maymo brings her back again. I recommend you stick with this strong mare. Mare is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big race today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BAHAMA PEARL (ML=5/2), #1 STEPHANIE MY LOVE (ML=5/1),

BAHAMA PEARL - Difficult to put any money on this mare on the front end. Likes to finish in the money though. Tough to recommend since I think a 'performance bounce' is in the works this time around. STEPHANIE MY LOVE - Nice race on August 22nd at Penn National, but the fact that there are no workouts since has to make one a little worried.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 LEAN ON E to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2024, 07:30 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 51

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 CUSTOMERUNHAPPY 5/2
# 2 SUGAR CANE GAL 5/1
# 7 WHEELS LIKE NALA 7/2

CUSTOMERUNHAPPY has a very good shot to take this race. Will most likely compete solidly in the early speed clash which bodes well with this field. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this one a key contender. One of the most favorable win percentages between this jockey and handler make this filly dangerous. SUGAR CANE GAL - Entrants trained by Zenon in dirt sprint races are usually solid.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2024, 07:30 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $13800 Class Rating: 66

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 GALLEY HEAD 3/1
# 1 FLURRY OF ROSES 2/1
# 4 SHASI 7/2

GALLEY HEAD is my choice. Has to be carefully examined versus this group of horses displaying respectable figs recently and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 60 under similar conditions. Will probably be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the halfway point of the race. Earned a strong Equibase speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. FLURRY OF ROSES - Conditioner has strong win rate (16 percent) at this distance and surface. Posted a formidable Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2024, 07:30 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:50pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,700 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#7 HE'S A LUCKY GUY (ML=6/1)
#5 SNACK (ML=5/2)

HE'S A LUCKY GUY - Always be wary of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. Has a decent opportunity to break maiden going over to the main track in this event. SNACK - A thoroughbred coming back this promptly after a nice race is a good sign. Jock jumped on this gelding's back for the 1st time on Aug 31st. Should be in touch with the horse even better today. This animal is number one in (EPS) earnings per start. He looks good in today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FORTINBRAS (ML=9/5), #8 TIZAWINNER (ML=7/2), #2 JUST BE HAPPY (ML=6/1),

FORTINBRAS - The favorite is suspect here with the lack of drills. TIZAWINNER - Pace makes the race and the paucity of pace means this come from behinder will have to rally without any help. JUST BE HAPPY - Tough to take this mount at this price after the result (fourth) in the last race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 HE'S A LUCKY GUY to win at post-time odds of 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Tuesday 9/10/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 9/10/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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