Wednesday 9/11/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Scott Shapiro: Kentucky Downs Closing-Day Money-Back Promo Plays

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September 10, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Just like that the seven-day Kentucky Downs meeting has come and gone. Wednesday marks the final card of the stand and Xpressbet and 1/ST BET’s Money Back Special Promotion. So, just three more cracks to get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if they finish second or third. Here are my plays assuming they are at or above their morning line price.

Race 5:

Unlike many turf sprints, this second-level allowance at 7-furlongs does not have a ton of early speed signed on. Horses like #2 Dude N Colorado and #13 Dominican Pioneer, if he draws in, have two-turn speed but that is unlikely to translate to a hot first half-mile. This should work out well for #3 Double Clutch. The son of Optimizer was a quality two-turn horse to start his career but since returning off a 7.5-month break last October, the 5YO gelding has found some tactical speed. This should allow jockey Jose Ortiz to find a favorable ground saving spot just a few lengths off the early pacesetters. If seven-eighths of a mile hits him like I expect, he should be able to out finish this bunch.

Play: #3 Double Clutch (9-2 ML)


Race 8: Nashville Gold Cup

Speaking of a race that lacks early zip, this 2 1/16-mile event for $500k is likely to see a slow early pace to say the least. Perhaps, this makes 7-5-morning line favorite #1 The Grey Wizard vulnerable in his attempt to make it three wins in a row for trainer Graham Motion. The easy way out is to take the insurance with the Money Back offer and bet the chalk assuming he has to hit the board, but I learned the hard way last Saturday there is nothing easy about making money at Kentucky Downs. Especially, with a horse that has never raced over this surface and is likely to have to close into a slow early tempo.

So, let’s try #5 McLovin who makes his first start of the year for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. The son of Animal Kingdom has a win in two starts over this course, has seemingly been pointed to this race for some time, and gets the best rider around right now in Flavien Prat. The Team Valor International runner should not be too far out of it early and offers fair value at 5-1 or higher.

Play: #5 McLovin (6-1 ML)


Race 9: Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational

The final Money Back Special opportunity of the year at Kentucky Downs comes in this 1 5/16- mile event for a chilly $1.6M. I am glutton for punishment, so I am going back to #11 Mo Fox Givin who hopefully relishes her first run at over 9-furlongs. The daughter of Mo Town may create her own trouble and clearly being an off the pace type puts her in positions to find traffic, but she has not had things her way in quite a few of her races. The Gary Barber owned filly has serious stamina on the bottom side of her pedigree and ran better than it looks on paper last out in her first start for new trainer Mark Casse. If she gets an honest pace to run at, I expect her to come with a strong run at a square price. Hopefully, we can close things out with a bang!

Play: #11 Mo Fox Givin (12-1 ML)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#6 Channel Me In	Nobody seemed to expect much from her in the debut run when 35/1 against seven others, but she showed a mild bit of enthusiasm with a grinding, one-paced effort. I liked that race a bit a the time last year and like the way she's coming into this 3-year-old debut. Get a look at her.
#3 First Foray	She's probably supposed to win this with some competitive pace in a race lacking serious speed, and the class rise isn't a big issue with a solid effort against similar on her page back in July. Still, I feel some mixed signals considering she wasn't able to handle a $25,000 group last out.
#5 Shez Untappable	Tactical speed chased one who is in pretty good form right now in that most recent start, and she should be in a fine spot turning for home with another good spying trip waiting for her. Lack of punch in the final yards has been a problem so far.
Race Summary	Channel Me In meets a group that I think has a few questions to answer, and she looks as ready to run off the break as you can on paper. Hoping her debut running line proves a bit better than it looks at first glance.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#3 Seminarian	Wanted to see something a bit better from him last time out, but I am (maybe foolishly) expecting that he'll actually improve today while cutting the tag in half. Think his better baseline stuff would do.
#5 Whiskey or Wine	He's the other really logical player on paper after taking a couple of nice steps forward in recent starts when getting in at this level. Tactical trip should leave him in the right kind of spot turning for home.
#7 Hurricane Dude	Not a whole lot to get excited about through two sprint starts on his page, but they both came with better, and it's encouraging to see Morales stick around for the plunge to the bottom. Not sure...
Race Summary	Seminarian was disappointing last out and has not sustained his middle moves in the last two starts, but something a touch better today would probably make him the right one. Interesting at the 5/2 ML price or a tick higher.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#1 Declared	He ran a big one last time out when just missing at 5/1, but he might still offer another OK price today in a competitive group. There isn't a ton of serious speed in here, so I'm hoping his positional pace will leave him in a great spot right up near the top from the rail break.
#4 Goodie Goomer	Sprinting or not, it's incredible that he paid $18 off the bench after winning the Mile here last year, and he now gets back around two turns in a spot where his tactical pace should have him in an attack spot throughout.
#3 Extrasexybigdaddee	He's always dangerous when racing locally, but I'm still leaning toward the idea that he's a slight cut below where he was last year and might come up short today against a fun group.
Race Summary	Declared is quick enough to find a really good spot that should give him the jump on a couple of the late threats, and I'm hoping the presence of the other listed pair will keep the price playable enough.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#1 LAW OF THE JUNGLE (8-1)	Rallied wide to win at bullring, draws rail for 29-percent ‘repeat’ barn.
#4 ENTRUST (4-1)	Plays to a steady beat, runs for Mena, use in all gimmick wagers.
#3 RARIFIED FLAIR (3-2)	Well-beaten favorite in last pair, takes the class plunge for Ness.
Race Summary	LAW OF THE JUNGLE seized the moment after the favorite got off to a poor start in a three-turn route race at Timonium and sustained a four-wide run to get up late to win at this level. He didn’t change leads until late stretch, but he projects a dream trip from the rail and is too good to pass up at 8-1 on the morning line. Bet to win and place and play a 1,4/1,3,4/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#5 GREAT ANDREI (6-1)	High turn of early foot, 6F the question, price worth it.
#6 CAPRICE (8-5)	Has done nothing wrong in two starts, clearly the one to beat at short price.
#1 ONYX TEN (7-2)	Clear second between top pair off maiden claiming romp, moves outside in.
Race Summary	Not giving up on GREAT ANDREI, who blazed to a pair of easy victories but was dueled into defeat in the Blue Hen Stakes in between. The distance could be an issue today but hoping she can clear and get brave on the lead. Bet to win and place and play a 5-6 exacta box and 5-6-1 and 5-6-7 straight trifectas.

Delaware Park - Race #8

#8 TOVIA (4-1)	Has speed, can go the distance in this spot at inflated price.
#6 NO WALK IN THE PARK (8-1)	Hit board in all four 6F starts, should be in prime striking spot.
#1 ZIFFY BUG (5-2)	Broke maiden at this distance, tired in grass route race in latest.
Race Summary	TOVIA backed up readily at this level in her first start locally as the favorite, but she deserves a second look. Her speed makes her dangerous in this field and she can use it well from the outside post in her second start off a six-week layoff. Bet to win and place and play 8-1 and 8-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE

Remington Park - Race 2	WPS / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) (.50 Cent Minimum)
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3-5 • CR: 71 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 6:59P
(RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT NECESSARY TO TAKE THIS RACE OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 1 MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * TIZ A KNOCKOUT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest a verage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MIZ RITHYM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BELMIRA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CACTUS BLOSSOM: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last rac e.
10	TIZ A KNOCKOUT	6/1	7/2
1	MIZ RITHYM	4/1	7/1
3	BELMIRA	3/1	8/1
6	CACTUS BLOSSOM	15/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	PLATINUM PHANTOM	7	10/1	Front-runner	0	0	80.8	51.6	40.6
4	SHE'S A GOLD LADY	4	8/1	Front-runner	0	0	52.4	52.4	37.9
8	HOLLYWOODBOULEVARD	8	12/1	Front-runner	69	54	51.2	51.2	38.2
2	KAMIKAZE	2	15/1	Front-runner	0	0	34.1	34.1	15.1
5	MAGENS BAY	5	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	65	63	56.9	51.2	36.7
3	BELMIRA	3	3/1	Stalker	74	76	63.5	51.2	44.2
1	MIZ RITHYM	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	66	88.0	61.1	51.1
6	CACTUS BLOSSOM	6	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	67	56	78.8	60.1	52.1
9	LIL KNOCKOUT	9	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	65	55.2	55.2	47.2
10	TIZ A KNOCKOUT	10	6/1	Trailer	72	62	61.6	64.2	61.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
PURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 5	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / Last Leg Pick 3
Allowance • 870 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $34,500 • Post: 3:10P
QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. (QUARTER HORSES PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MY ONETIME CORONA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BP DESERT STREAK: Horse has the highest average Equibase Sp eed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	MY ONETIME CORONA	5/2	9/2
7	BP DESERT STREAK	7/2	5/1
4	I KNOW CASH FLOW (T)	8/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SIX EAGLES MOON YOU	1	3/1	Average	77	78	4.2	0.0	0.0
2	MY ONETIME CORONA	2	5/2	Fast	87	89	3.4	0.0	0.0
3	WASP	3	15/1	Fast	81	77	3.4	0.0	0.0
5	HIDDEN FIGURES	5	6/1	Average	79	82	5.9	0.0	0.0
6	GOOD BYE CHARLIE (T)	6	9/2	Slow	85	75	6.6	0.0	0.0
7	BP DESERT STREAK	7	7/2	Average	101	79	3.7	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: I KNOW CASH FLOW (T) (8/1) [Jockey: Ramos Christian - Trainer: Fincher Todd W].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 11, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 UNIFIED REPORT 7/2
# 6 PESO IN MY POCKET 8/1
# 2 PREMIUM 9/2

UNIFIED REPORT looks very strong to best this field. Has been racing soundly and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Could provide positive returns based on strong recent speed figures with an average of 83. PESO IN MY POCKET - Has been travelling quite well and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance. PREMIUM - Has a solid shot in this event if you like back class. This gelding has a very good winning percentage in turf sprint races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:25pm - Starter Allowance - 11.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,200 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#7 VELOCE (ML=5/1)
#3 ORO DE MORO MORO (ML=6/1)


VELOCE - Moves back to a trip at which he ran a speed rating good enough to make him a contender today. Running on the turf today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. ORO DE MORO MORO - This horse is racing on the turf for the first time. He should be tough, coming off a second place finish in his race on July 18th on a sluggish track. Finished fourth at Thistledown last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 6/1 today, he looks like a possible contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 TAKECHARGEJUSTICE (ML=6/5), #4 BARLEEWON (ML=6/1), #2 MR HOOVER (ML=8/1),

TAKECHARGEJUSTICE - Not probable that this horse will finish better than he did last time out when placing sixth. The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this racer as a vulnerable competitor. BARLEEWON - Didn't show much run last time. Probably won't do much running in today's event. Garnered a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig last time out in a $12,500 Claiming race on September 5th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating. MR HOOVER - A strong thoroughbred that's been running well, but he's been off the track in the mornings recently. The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a questionable contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #7 VELOCE on top if we're getting at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 80

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. IF THIS RACE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 SECRETO DE AMORE 6/1
# 8 SHIESTY TO CHASE 5/2
# 1 INDIAN CREED 3/1

SECRETO DE AMORE is the top bet in this race. This gelding with Villarreal in the irons makes him a solid contender. Jockey's recent return on investment numbers make this gelding a strong bet. His 69 average has this gelding with among the top speed figures for this race. SHIESTY TO CHASE - Ran a strong last race. INDIAN CREED - Looks solid for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figs in turf route races lately. Players should take a good look at this one as this colt has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 2:59pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#5 HOTPOT (ML=2/1)


HOTPOT - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this racer is encountering an easier group than last race out at Parx Racing. The 76 most recent race speed figure looks good in black and white.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GABE (ML=3/1), #7 HIDE THE RANSOM (ML=9/2), #3 CHAIN REACTION (ML=6/1),

GABE - Has been beaten as the public's top choice twice. A repeat is probably in store. HIDE THE RANSOM - Would have to get better off that fourth place finish last time out to make an impact here. This horse doesn't have a winner's spirit. Often finishes in the place or show spot. CHAIN REACTION - When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to register a better speed fig than in the last race to vie in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 HOTPOT to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 8
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip