Thursday 9/12/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #5

#13 Monsieur Big Man	Debuter needs a scratch to draw in off the also-eligible list, but it feels like he's ready to roll if he gets to head to post. Starting here when taking a look at the new faces ahead of this. Lots to like on paper.
#12 Hitchcock	Another interesting debuter among many -- think the three drawn nearest the fence have enough appeal to take a look, too. Outside draw may not be a bad thing to watch it all unfold from a forward spot.
#8 Tuxedo Park	Think he might still have something better to offer today, as his last felt just a tiny bit flat, but the price should be right to see if he can get back to something like the debut run.
Race Summary	Monsieur Big Man, as mentioned above, is one of several interesting fresh faces from the fence all the way to the outside, but I think he's the most intriguing one on the page if he gets to go.

Churchill Downs - Race #6

#6 Echo Sound	Tough time splitting the top two, but I think this one has the right kind of style to be successful today paired with some encouraging upside off a very solid, but not over-the-top score at first asking. Dangerous with anything better today.
#4 Anakarina	Had just enough mixed feelings about this one to give Echo Sound the edge -- she has some decent pace and gets some class relief today after fading with Grade III company last out. Ceiling is high enough, but I would have liked to see just a touch more fight from her last out.
#7 Oliviera	She drilled a $40,000 group at Colonial in the debut try, and something similar to that run feels fairly competitive with these, but I feel like the class jump is not insignificant with a couple nice winners lined up against her today.
Race Summary	I could see Echo Sound getting bet below the 7/2 ML offering, and I think there is enough upside here to take a bit shorter number than that. She should trip out while racing just off a couple more committed pace players early on.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#5 Quintillion	He finished up with some enthusiasm after a slow start in the career debut last month at Ellis, but I wouldn't be surprised if he were a bit more tactical today if he can get away better. Dangerous with less to do in the lane?
#7 Big Boat
#2 Greatdayforhockey	Nothing from him at 25/1 in the debut, but there is some reasonable upside with that race under his belt, and Jose Ortiz gets the nod for the second start. Enough room to come forward for a piece at a price?
Race Summary	#3 Zandvoort and #12 Sir Gallivant both run for powerhouse teams, but I'm not sure either is going to offer a truly fair number -- we'll see. Quintillion might have something more in the tank today if he's able to avoid another troubled start. Price might be mildly playable.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#4 FIA FIRST (4-1)	Failed at odds-on but stayed on willingly chasing slow pace, one more chance.
#11 QUICK RECOVERY (6-1)	Takes the plunge and gets Lasix off layoff for new barn, watch odds.
#7 LADIDA (12-1)	Burning serious money since arrival three starts ago, late interest in the slop at 6F.
Race Summary	FIA FIRST ‘lost ground’ near the quarter pole and couldn’t reach the pace-controlling winner in a shorter sprint. She sheds five pounds and will have no excuses in this field to make amends as the beaten 3-to-5 favorite. Bet to win and place and play a 4-7-11 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#6 SUPER CONSTITUTION (8-5)	Mows ‘em down in the stretch despite 0-for-11 Delaware record.
#5 DISCREET DEVIL (8-1)	Chased odds-on winner around bullring and stayed on well, tempting price.
#3 COOLER KING (2-1)	Faded chasing fast pace, runs for cheapest tag, tactical speed comes in handy.
Race Summary	SUPER CONSTITUTION can’t afford to break a step slow in his first start at 5F as he did last out at 6F. But he should get a livelier pace to rally into and won’t have a 1-to-5 favorite to catch this time around on the class drop. Make a win and place wager on today’s Best Bet.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#7 MURUMBI (6-1)	Gets more pace to rally into, puts blinks back on for high-percentage connections.
#6 LATIN NIKKITA (2-1)	Hit board in 16 of 29, stands 9/1-2-2 on return to conventional dirt.
#2 DEL REY DOLLY (4-1)	Knows how to win, gets first chance to prove it at one mile on the dirt.
Race Summary	MURUMBI rallied into a slow pace to finish second in two of her last three starts at one mile, ran well off similar rest in the spring and wears blinkers again. She can draw closer to six figures in earnings with her second route win this year. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 6	Exacta / Quiniela / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 42 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 5:00P
FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. 2# A CLASFS. INFERIOR Y DEBTS ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. MILENARIO is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MILENARIO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. BERMUDO: Horse has run a Good Race wi thin the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	MILENARIO	3/1	5/2
6	BERMUDO	2/1	5/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MILENARIO	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	43	18	35.1	17.1	15.1
6	BERMUDO	6	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	42	29	31.2	15.4	11.4

Unknown Running Style: MAXIMUM BLAST (4/1) [Jockey: Rivera Luis F - Trainer: Lisboa Jason], MINISTER CAT (10/1) [Jockey: Robles Jorge G - Trainer: Gomez Maximo], DECORATED FOR CAT (5/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Sanchez A - Trainer: Diaz Samuel], OLAFMOON (

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park
PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race 9	Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $.20 Jackpot Super HI-FIVE
Maiden Claiming $15,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 75 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 9:41P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * IM A FANCY DEBUTANTE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. INSTA MILLIONAIRE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Sty le designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BE RIGHT BAC: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks i n the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. VALIANT TOM: Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
2	IM A FANCY DEBUTANTE	2/1	5/1
12	INSTA MILLIONAIRE	5/2	5/1
5	BE RIGHT BAC	7/2	8/1
7	VALIANT TOM	10/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LIL POPPA STOPPER	1	30/1	Slow	0	0	9.3	0.0	0.0
2	IM A FANCY DEBUTANTE	2	2/1	Average	72	65	4.4	0.0	0.0
3	EG CLIFF MONEY	3	9/2	Average	55	58	4.5	0.0	0.0
5	BE RIGHT BAC	5	7/2	Average	67	61	5.4	0.0	0.0
6	PROUDEST SUCCESS	6	20/1	Average	55	38	4.4	0.0	0.0
7	VALIANT TOM	7	10/1	Average	66	62	4.2	0.0	0.0
8	PINK CHERRY CHICK	8	15/1	Slow	0	0	6.1	0.0	0.0
9	CHUY WATTERS	9	8/1	Fast	65	52	2.8	0.0	0.0
10	LADY BOGART	10	8/1	Average	68	53	0.0	0.0	0.0
11	BUCHANAN 747	11	6/1	Average	56	53	3.7	0.0	0.0
12	INSTA MILLIONAIRE	12	5/2	Fast	73	63	2.4	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: MACHO MODELO (15/1) [Jockey: Contreras Alfredo - Trainer: Ortiz Javier Ruiz].

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Belterra Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:35pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,700 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#8 COACH PETRO (ML=8/1)
#1 FULL ARMOR (ML=7/2)


COACH PETRO - Last out, finished fifth on a sloppy track at Belterra Park. Have to do better right here in this race. This trainer brings horses to the turf ready to win, winning over 20 pct of the time under similar conditions. Ranked the highest in earnings per race. Another sign that this equine has the class to win today. FULL ARMOR - You always have to be on the watch for profit making jock/handler duos; we have an instance right here. Ran last out against tougher competition at Ellis Park. The move to a lower class rank should suit him well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LINESMAN (ML=5/2), #2 MUCHO GRANDE (ML=4/1), #6 QUEBRANCHO (ML=5/1),

LINESMAN - Difficult to play any horse to turn things around if there is no value to taking the chance. MUCHO GRANDE - In the last race this vulnerable equine finished third. Doesn't look good for his chances today. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a questionable contender. QUEBRANCHO - The finish of sixth in the last event shows me that this equine may be losing physical conditioning. This colt is always around, but just doesn't finish on top. Difficult to wager on him on the top end.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 COACH PETRO to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $58000 Class Rating: 73

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 HANK HILL 8/1
# 1 SELL IT 5/1
# 12 COLONEL YORKE 4/1

HANK HILL is the best bet in this affair and is a very good value bet given the line at 8/1. Should be given a chance for this event if only for the very strong speed rating posted in the last contest. Looks respectable for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races recently. SELL IT - Has performed strongly as of late in sprint races, posting a nifty 60 avg speed figure. His 60 average has this colt with among the best Equibase Speed Figures in here. COLONEL YORKE - Have to look at solely on class, with some of the top class figures of this group of horses in this race. He has to be given a chance given the quite good speed figures.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $33900 Class Rating: 48

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO FOALS MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 GREEK BOUTIQUE 2/1
# 6 MOBIL ENSIGN 3/1
# 7 DAH FUH 20/1

My choice for this race is GREEK BOUTIQUE. This filly must be given a shot just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone. Has very strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. Fadlovich has shown excellent profits (+22 return on investment ) at this distance/surface. DAH FUH - Tough to pass on this filly with Diaz in the saddle.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #6 - Post: 9:21pm - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,400 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#5 RAMSEY (ML=6/1)
#2 YANGARRA (ML=8/1)


RAMSEY - Joy brings him right back. I suggest you stay with this strong gelding. Classic angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Should run a big one here. This animal has increased his Equibase speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet. You have to be keen on that last race speed fig, 84, which is the best recent race speed rating of this group. YANGARRA - Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PROSPECTIVE LOVE (ML=4/5), #8 PLAY IT LOUD (ML=4/1),

PROSPECTIVE LOVE - This pony will probably need at least one more start after the lackluster showing following the very long layoff. Difficult to back any vulnerable equine in a sprint affair if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple months. PLAY IT LOUD - When any horse improves so much on a sloppy track, I have to be leery of him next race out. Quite unimpressive speed fig in the last race at Charles Town at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - YANGARRA - The data here is quite simple. This thoroughbred has a lot of pace, so I'd calculate that he sets the early fractions, with a chance to go gate to wire.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 RAMSEY on top if we're getting at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip