Saturday 9/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-12-2024, 08:52 AM

Race of the Week: $1 Million Woodbine Mile | Saturday

September 11, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Turf Champions Day at Woodbine features 6 stakes races on a 12-race program that gets underway at 1:10 pm ET. A quartet of Grade 1 stakes includes juveniles in the Natalma and Summer, a world-class filly and mare turf matchup in the E.P. Taylor and the annual headliner, the Woodbine Mile.

Field Depth:
The field's lone Grade / Group 1 winner is BIG ROCK. FILO DI ARIANNA is a Grade 2 winner. NAVAL POWER and MY BOY PRINCE are Grade 1-placed. SECRET RESERVE has won at the Grade 3 level. BIG ROCK and NAVAL POWER clearly have faced the strongest company and hold the class edge.

Pace:
PLAYMEA TUNE exits sprints and leaves from the rail with a chance to be on or near the lead. FILO DI ARIANNA wired the local prep, while NIAGARA SKYLINE and MY BOY PRINCE typically are forwardly placed. The pace should be fair.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-PLAYMEA TUNE: By far the least seasoned of the Woodbine Mile participants, having 3 sprints on Tapeta on his resume so far. Neck shy of being undefeated, nearly upsetting dominant local sprinter Patches O'Houlihan in the Bold Venture. Jockey John Velazquez owns a race-record 5 victories in the Woodbine Mile. Josie Carroll can join Gail Cox as the second female trainer to win this race.

#2-NAVAL POWER: Last seen Kentucky Derby Day in the race before the Run for the Roses, this Charlie Appleby trainee came up a neck short in the Grade 1 Turf Classic. Also second-best in Keeneland's Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile after winning Meydan's Grade 2 Singspiel in February during a light, 3-race campaign. Hard to knock 9: 6-2-0 record and Godolphin's quest for a third straight Woodbine Mile win, following Modern Games and Master of the Seas. This colt is a cut below those two, but fits strongly amongst this particular field.

#3-SECRET RESERVE: 6-year-old veteran has appeared in 16 local stakes, but makes his first Woodbine Mile appearance. No-threat third at 44-1 odds in the local prep, the Grade 2 King Edward, behind rematched rival Filo Di Arianna. Hard to recommend off of a 1-for-his-last-16 skid.

#4-BIG ROCK: Off the board in 3 starts this year overseas, the 2023 Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes winner from Ascot hasn't been the same of late. His 9: 5-3-0 mark a year ago made him one of Europe's most acclaimed milers. California-based Umberto Rispoli takes the mount for Maurizio Guarnieri, who took over training Big Rock this year as well as stablemate Blue Rose Cen, who goes in the E.P. Taylor. Hard not to look at the slipped results of both since the barn change and not pin some of the responsibility there.

#5-FILO DI ARIANNA: 5-for-5 Woodbine turf mark will be put to the ultimate local test, having already won this meeting's Highlander and King Edward, both Grade 2 stakes. May be best at 7 furlongs, but has strong 5: 3-1-0 mark in grass miles. Eight-year-old has made but 17 career starts, though winning 9, while hitting the sixth start of this campaign - a marathon by his standards.

#6-WIN FOR THE MONEY: The outsider of the Mark Casse-trained trio here that includes Filo Di Arianna and My Boy Prince. First trip over the Woodbine turf for this 5-year-old, who has lost 2 straight since winning his 2024 seasonal return in Gulfstream's Mr. Steele Stakes. Figures to be farther off the pace than his stablemates, especially in a 1-turn mile. Casse won the 2016 and 2017 Woodbine Mile editions, while jockey Patrick Husbands landed the 2001 renewal.

#7-NIAGARA SKYLINE: Last-out allowance winner snapped a 6-race losing streak and now takes a big bite of the apple in his first Grade 1. Should be the longest price on the tote, but could impact the early pace if hustled.

#8-MY BOY PRINCE: Top 3-year-old colt in Canada faces older horses while returning to turf. His 1-for-4 mark on grass does include placings in the Grade 1 Summer and Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf a year ago. Modern Games is the only 3-year-old to win the Woodbine Mile. He'll get as much as a 5-pound weight break, which doesn't hurt. Sahin Civachi is runaway leading jockey at the meeting, and his winning 27% on turf locally this year.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
NAVAL POWER is 8-for-9 in the exacta lifetime and goes for connections that have owned this race 2 years running.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
PLAYMEA TUNE is fast and has an upside / ceiling that hasn't yet been discovered.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$75 exacta NAVAL POWER over PLAYMEA TUNE. $25 exacta PLAYMEA TUNE over NAVAL POWER.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2024, 07:49 AM

Scott Shapiro: Churchill Spot Plays | Saturday, 9/14/24

September 12, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

The Iroquois Stakes has been far from a productive prep for the “Run for the Roses” over the years, but it represents the start of the Road to Kentucky Derby once again in 2025. The Grade 3 event for 2YOs headlines a strong card at Churchill Downs that includes five stakes and the kickoff to the 2025 Kentucky Oaks as well.

Here are a few horses I will be leaning on Saturday in Louisville:

Race 7: Locust Grove (G2)

The late Pick 5 gets started with this 1 1/16 -mile event for fillies and mares where #7 Shotgun Hottie looks tough to beat. The daughter of Gun Runner has been freshened up after a pair of runner-up efforts at the Grade 2 level this summer, including her neck defeat two-back in the Fleur de Lis (G2) to Scylla. In that late June run at Churchill Downs, the 5YO mare was buried along the inside crying out for room, yet did not find clear sailing until it was too late. This time around though, the Cherie DeVaux trainee draws outside, which should allow new jockey Jose Ortiz to stay out of traffic. If Ortiz is able to navigate a clean outside stalking trip and avoid a wide voyage into the first turn, Shotgun Hottie should be very tough to beat.

Play: #7 Shotgun Hottie (2-1 ML)

Race 8: Pocahontas (G3)

The Road to the Kentucky Oaks kicks off on Saturday with a wide-open edition of the Pocahontas (G3). A contentious pace appears highly likely in this one-turn mile event over the main track. In fact, it is difficult to state with confidence, which of the fourteen fillies will relax off the pace early and finish with the most energy.

#13 Kimchi Cat is the filly I like most. She has done little wrong through two starts for the same connections that won the 2019 Kentucky Oaks with Serengeti Empress. The Twirling Candy filly showed the ability to stalk just off the pace in her victory against non-graded stakes foes at Saratoga last month, a strategy I anticipate Tyler Gaffalione using once again on Saturday afternoon. The only issue I have is her likely off odds. 9-2 on any filly in a race like this seems less than ideal, so I will look to a runner that should go off at significantly higher odds.

#14 Liam in the Dust was hammered down to even-money in her debut at Ellis Park on August 11. The Liam’s Map filly was part of the early proceedings that day, put the other speeds away, and won for fun in the end. The fact her debut was at seven-furlongs and she appeared to have plenty left late bodes well for her as she stretches out to a mile in this one. Hopefully, she can find a way to relax early and avoid getting caught up with all the speed signed on to her inside.

Play: #14 Liam in the Dust (15-1 ML)

Race 10: Iroquois (G3)

Twenty-one points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby are on the line in a race that has seen a 6-5-favorite or lower fail to get to the wire first in four consecutive years. Obviously, this is a small sample size, but at the same time it makes some sense. Young horses that ran big in starts in the spring and early summer have often just matured earlier than their crop. By mid-September, plenty have caught up with them.

#5 Owen Almighty is likely to go off as the favorite in this year’s Iroquois and deservingly so. The son of Speightstown has dominated in both of his first two starts for trainer Brian Lynch, including his easy win last out in the Ellis Park Juvenile when he disposed of #12 Politicallycorrect relatively easily in the lane. It is hard to knock Owen Almighty, but he has gotten stress free outside stalking voyages in each of his first two starts. Now, he draws in between runners. This is likely to lead to a much different type of trip than he had in his initial two tries making a short price a little tough to swallow.

Much like Owen Almighty, #7 Sandman was all the rage before his debut in late June. The type of colt you hear about long before the morning of his first start. He did not show his best stuff in that stalk and fade effort in Louisville, but bounced back in career start number two when he relaxed professionally along the inside and out finished the 8-5-public choice. This $1.2M purchase should love getting an extra furlong in his first start against winners. Hopefully, we get the morning line price.

Play: #7 Sandman (6-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-14-2024, 07:31 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Milton Stakes Pick 3 Analysis

September 14, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Woodbine Mohawk Park has a 13-race card to wrap up the week. The headliner rolls in Race 8, the Milton Stakes Final with a $205,000 purse. My focus will be on the Pick 3 sequence whch includes the Milton, and it starts in Race 7.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (9:32 PM EST)

8-Redwood Hanover (8-1)-Will overlook the last start, which was the Aria at Yonkers and will try to catch a solid price to start the sequence. Started a long way back in the 1 1/16 mile contest and that sealed its fate that day. Dexter Dunn gets his 2nd straight assignment and the Anthony Beaton trainee likes Mohawk, hitting the board in 13 of 21 races with 6 wins. Not sure the 8-1 morning line will hold up. Willing to take a swing Dunn will have the 4-year-old close enough to the leaders at the top of the lane to be able to take a picture.

Race 8 (9:54 PM EST)

1-Twin B Joe Fresh (4/5)-The Chris Ryder monster will lose again at some point but it hasn't happened since May 19. That was the first start of this year. Tonight, doesn't draw one of the best posts, and there are some nice horses in this contest but there isn't one in Joe's category. Could lose, it's possible, but not looking for that to happen.

Race 9 (10:16 PM EST)

8-Highland Kismet (4/5)-Now, in this leg comes a 3-year-old trotting monster that has banked over $580k this year. That total would be much more if a generational trotter named Karl wasn't in the same category. The Mark Etsell trainee has won 6 of 7 at Wbsb. The only loss was following a sick scratch, that night was 11-lenghts back at the 1st call and lost by a half length. All systems should be on go, set a new lifetime mark of 151.3 last time in the Simcoe. Could go faster but probably not here in an Elim for the Canadian Trotting Classic.

$15 Pick 3

1,8/1/8
Total Bet=$30

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-14-2024, 07:32 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#6 Pretty Sure	Feel like there are a handful of forward players lined up who haven't proven they can rate yet, and that long run into the turn could give them a lot of opportunities to quicken the tempo. This one rallied nicely going six furlongs in the debut run to think she can settle a touch off the quicker players while stretching out. Solid lean.
#13 Kimchi Cat	Really liked her stakes score last out and think she might be able to settle just a touch and spy as this one unfolds, but I'm always a little wary of getting too attached to an off-the-turf winner. Still, I think she's legit enough to make some real noise here.
#12 Stilettos	Nothing wrong with the way she validated the 16-length Lone Star debut romp with another score in that Ellis stakes try, and at least she draws outside of the other pace to have a chance to avoid the worst of it.
Race Summary	#11 West Memorial turned in the biggest race of her career over this track and could wake up for a piece at a price. Pretty Sure should get a great race flow today and might be in a perfect spot to reel in the speed an earliest movers.

Churchill Downs - Race #10

#4 Authentic Strike	There doesn't appear to be quite as much committed early burn in the boys' side of things today, and this one might be quick enough to either control the tempo or prompt the splits the whole way.
#5 Owen Almighty	He impressed in the stakes score last time out and probably hits hard again today at a modest price. He should be in a great spot while tracking/spying the top choice throughout.
#6 Strummin	He found his best stuff when getting a dirt mile for the first time, and he might be able to get past some of these for a share late. Not sure the race shape is going to set things up for him to get all the way over the top, but he benefits if the tempo heats up.
Race Summary	Authentic Strike showed a little grit when well meant at 99 cents on the dollar in the debut, and I think that kind of run might set him up for something better at second asking with a potentially favorable race shape waiting for him.

Churchill Downs - Race #11

#11 Kinetic Control	He is one of the few in here who has shown an ability to get past horses, and that should serve him well from what should be a great spot up close while watching it all unfold.
#5 Tickled Quist	Doesn't seem like there is a whole lot of depth in this one, so it wouldn't be a shock to see this one's modest and even debut run translate to something better around two turns today.
#7 Desert Aire	The winner of his debut went earlier in stakes company, so upgrade him as needed, but I think his pace could be dangerous around two turns with a pedigree that has some appeal while stretching out.
Race Summary	I don't feel like this is a particularly deep race, so I'm looking for Kinetic Control to get the job done from close range to close out the day. He probably doesn't even need to come forward much to score today, just bring something similar to the debut run while moving around two turns.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-14-2024, 07:32 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Monmouth Park - Race #1

#6 CROSSATI (6-1)	Useful debut, dam came out running, price attached on surface switch.
#5 THE SUGARS (5-1)	Sprinted clear two back at Saratoga despite breaking in the air.
#9 PRETTY SHY (4-1)	Led at stretch call in long sprint in turf debut, gets Paco.
Race Summary	CROSSATI chased the 6-1 winner and 3-to-5 runner-up before tiring in a useful debut on the main track. Her dam, Same Cross, won the first three races of her career and was a stakes-placed earner of $150k, though she only raced once on turf. Bet to win and place and play a 5-6-9 exacta box.

Monmouth Park - Race #2

#2 P.J.’S SONG (3-1)	Ran on short rest, rally was disrupted by drifting rival, good value play.
#4 PORTIS (7-2)	Dueled to quarter pole as odds-on choice before trip-sitting winner passed by.
#7 LAKE CHAPALA (8-1)	Got up to finish second in three consecutive routes, gets more pace flow.
Race Summary	P.J.’S SONG rallied 4-wide for second behind the favorite at one mile despite getting floated wider for the stretch drive. He gets more ground and gets more rest than the five days between his last two starts. Bet to win and place and play a 2-4-7 exacta box.

Monmouth Park - Race #4

#1 ACHERON (6-1)	Landed minor awards in well-bet two starts, worked bullet since then.
#5 HAVE A HAPPY (3-1)	Sustained wide bid behind dueling leaders, denied by first-timer starter.
#10 MONNIE’S MAGIC (8-1)	Took money despite slow works, backed up readily, moves inside out.
Race Summary	ACHERON chased a runaway, 9-to-5 first-time starter in the 3-path and held second in her second go-round. She worked in :47.3/5 since then and gets Bravo from the rail. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-10 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-14-2024, 07:33 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park
PURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 5	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 5-6) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7)
Optional Claiming $62,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 79 • Purse: $49,000 • Post: 2:15P
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER, MD SIRED RACES OR MD BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500-50,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500, IF FOR $50,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $45,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. BARBADIAN RUNNER is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BARBADIAN RUNNER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ELLINGER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surfa ce (dirt or turf) is at least 50. DO IT FOR MICHAEL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. KISSLING: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. HAPPYFLYER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4	BARBADIAN RUNNER	5/1	5/1
2	ELLINGER	6/1	7/1
7	DO IT FOR MICHAEL	20/1	7/1
6	KISSLING	3/1	8/1
3	HAPPYFLYER	9/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	HAPPYFLYER	3	9/2	Front-runner	75	68	73.3	61.1	49.6
2	ELLINGER	2	6/1	Front-runner	71	70	71.1	66.4	60.9
1A	LITTLE BIT RISKY	8	4/1	Front-runner	65	58	60.4	52.3	38.3
7	DO IT FOR MICHAEL	7	20/1	Stalker	70	69	60.1	65.8	59.3
6	KISSLING	6	3/1	Stalker	73	66	54.3	62.9	55.4
5	JUST A FAIR SHAKE	5	5/2	Stalker	73	75	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	BARBADIAN RUNNER	4	5/1	Trailer	72	79	48.4	63.6	54.6
1	SIR MICK	1	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	67	51.1	47.7	33.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-14-2024, 07:33 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race 1	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)/ $1 Swinger
Maiden Optional Claiming $40,0 • 1 Mile • Inner Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $65,700 • Post: 1:10P
INNER TURF FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ONTARIO SIRED MAIDENS OR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD MAIDEN CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. UNDER AGREEMENT (FR) is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * ENGLISH JUBILEE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMast er Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JUST MAGNIFICENT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance /surface. RASHMI: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SILENT AND SINFUL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distan ce/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	ENGLISH JUBILEE	2/1	5/1
2	JUST MAGNIFICENT	7/2	5/1
1	RASHMI	6/1	7/1
4	SILENT AND SINFUL	8/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	JUST MAGNIFICENT	2	7/2	Front-runner	81	73	84.4	70.2	66.2
4	SILENT AND SINFUL	4	8/1	Front-runner	78	76	83.4	67.3	58.8
5	UNDER AGREEMENT (FR)	5	3/1	Stalker	60	58	78.7	55.0	45.5
3	ENGLISH JUBILEE	3	2/1	Trailer	77	79	70.4	74.7	70.2
1	RASHMI	1	6/1	Trailer	77	67	65.3	67.8	61.8
8	EMPIRE'S TREAT	8	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	72	70	60.1	67.5	58.5

Unknown Running Style: BIG DRAMA DIVA (20/1) [Jockey: Adams Austin - Trainer: Buntain Angus], FROGINAPOND (20/1) [Jockey: Gaskin Da-Sean Zavier - Trainer: Grant Carlos].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-14-2024, 07:33 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Emerald Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 VILIFIED 2/1
# 5 LAURA'S KIDOUGH 8/5
# 6 NIGHT TO REMEMBER 9/2

VILIFIED is the best bet in this race. Might see a different equine here with the blinkers change. Looks solid to be close to the front end at the first call. Could beat this group of horses given the 77 speed figure earned in his last outing. LAURA'S KIDOUGH - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group recently. Could provide positive returns based on respectable recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 82. NIGHT TO REMEMBER - With a solid 73 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. Is a strong contender based on numbers put up as of late under today's conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-14-2024, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #9 - Post: 9:26pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,332 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#2 SIR ELI (ML=4/1)
#1 RUNNING ALEX'SBAND (ML=7/2)
#3 BIG PINES SANDY (ML=8/1)

SIR ELI - Earnings per start is something that I believe can be a valuable factor. This mount is ranked at the top in this bunch. After a pair of sprints, he's routing today, which is probably what this gelding wants to do. This trainer sure has a knack for stretching out most any animal. Getting the extra distance sure seems to help Birzer's starters perform well. RUNNING ALEX'SBAND - This race horse should be rocking and rolling in the lane. BIG PINES SANDY - The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Martinez. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NASTY EXAGGERATOR (ML=5/2), #6 MUNNYCANTBUYMELOVE (ML=3/1), #7 GINGER RULES (ML=6/1),

NASTY EXAGGERATOR - This mount hasn't been on the track since Aug 19th. Not even any drills. You always think this horse has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but he falls short regularly. MUNNYCANTBUYMELOVE - You always think this horse has a shot to win, but he comes up short regularly. Tough for this closer equine to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone pace is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done. GINGER RULES - Finished eighth last time. Would have to get better to be on the board in today's event. When looking at today's class figure, he will have to register a much better speed figure than last time around the track to vie in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 SIR ELI to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-14-2024, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 81

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 AMERICAN DREAMIN 3/1
# 6 ROSE BEAUKAY 7/2
# 3 PERKY COWGIRL 4/1

I've got to go with AMERICAN DREAMIN. She should definitely be given a chance given the formidable speed numbers. With Cervantes controlling the reins on her, this filly will probably be able to break out early in here. Could best this field based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 85 - of her last contest. ROSE BEAUKAY - Is a contender - given the 65 speed rating from her most recent race. Formidable average Equibase Speed Figures in short races make this horse a solid choice. PERKY COWGIRL - Is tough not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very good - 61 avg - of late. Earned a formidable speed fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-14-2024, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #2 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating:

#7 CHASING COLTON (ML=3/1)

CHASING COLTON - Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Certainly on edge for a good one today. Last race was at Saratoga in a race with a class figure of 77. Dropping considerably in class rating in today's event puts him in a solid position right here. I like this colt. Has the top (EPS) earnings per start in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SCHEDULING DUDE (ML=5/2), #6 SARATOGA WARRIOR (ML=3/1), #3 PANDEMIC HERO (ML=9/2),

SCHEDULING DUDE - This pony didn't go to the front end and didn't close ground in the stretch last time he ran. The Brain tells me to keep away from horses in sprint contests that haven't hit the board in short distance contests of late. This horse ran a pedestrian speed rating last race out. He shouldn't run much better and will likely get beat today running that number. SARATOGA WARRIOR - 3/1 is not priced right for any animal in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint event lately. The speed rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this entrant as a vulnerable contender. PANDEMIC HERO - This gelding gave a less than rousing performance last time out. In any contest of 6 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been sharp in sprint contests of late. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to register a better speed fig than last time out to compete in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 CHASING COLTON to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**ConleyPicks** · 09-14-2024, 09:54 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe Park

Arapahoe Park - Race 2	W/P/S/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $18,500 • Post: 1:25P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF THREE RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * TIFFANY'S FERRARI: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LAYAWAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EUROWENDI: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top thr ee in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	TIFFANY'S FERRARI	8/1	3/1
4	LAYAWAY	5/2	7/2
5	EUROWENDI	9/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TIFFANY'S FERRARI	1	8/1	Stalker	64	61	55.2	59.6	55.1
5	EUROWENDI	5	9/2	Trailer	60	54	25.4	48.6	40.6
4	LAYAWAY	4	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	69	63	64.0	50.0	44.5
2	CREAM PUFF REAPER	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	62	61.8	48.0	41.5
3	MIRAGE CODE	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	50	50.0	46.6	42.1

**ConleyPicks** · 09-14-2024, 09:54 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 70

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING 10,000 FOR HORSES THAT HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SOMNUS 9/2
# 2 SPEIGHTIEMAN 3/1
# 3 NATIONS DREAM 4/1

SOMNUS is the strongest bet in this race. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding. Lynch has him trained very well to break speedily out of the gate. Put up a sound speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. SPEIGHTIEMAN - Ought to be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone. This selection will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. NATIONS DREAM - Is a sharp contender based on numbers recorded lately under today's conditions. The odds might be just right on this horse.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-14-2024, 09:55 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine

Woodbine - Race 1	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)/ $1 Swinger
Maiden Optional Claiming $40,0 • 1 Mile • Inner Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $65,700 • Post: 1:10P
INNER TURF FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ONTARIO SIRED MAIDENS OR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD MAIDEN CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. UNDER AGREEMENT (FR) is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * ENGLISH JUBILEE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMast er Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JUST MAGNIFICENT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance /surface. RASHMI: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SILENT AND SINFUL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distan ce/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	ENGLISH JUBILEE	2/1	5/1
2	JUST MAGNIFICENT	7/2	5/1
1	RASHMI	6/1	7/1
4	SILENT AND SINFUL	8/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	JUST MAGNIFICENT	2	7/2	Front-runner	81	73	84.4	70.2	66.2
4	SILENT AND SINFUL	4	8/1	Front-runner	78	76	83.4	67.3	58.8
5	UNDER AGREEMENT (FR)	5	3/1	Stalker	60	58	78.7	55.0	45.5
3	ENGLISH JUBILEE	3	2/1	Trailer	77	79	70.4	74.7	70.2
1	RASHMI	1	6/1	Trailer	77	67	65.3	67.8	61.8
8	EMPIRE'S TREAT	8	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	72	70	60.1	67.5	58.5

Unknown Running Style: BIG DRAMA DIVA (20/1) [Jockey: Adams Austin - Trainer: Buntain Angus], FROGINAPOND (20/1) [Jockey: Gaskin Da-Sean Zavier - Trainer: Grant Carlos].